Line Trending Against Michigan

We have been fed the “SEC is the best narrative” for so long, and Georgia—two time champion—was just defeated by Bama, so this is no surprise.  I say good.  I like being considered the underdog.  The more people have questioned this team, the more it has responded to silence them.

Who gives a shit about betting lines.

I like this.  Just provide a bit more motivation for the Maize & Blue.

Bama’s a juggernaut that can’t be touched, especially by Michigan.  The SEC is the all powerful beast that controls everything in college football.

Please.. please.. Don’t give Michigan a chance…

I think there’s a saying - Michigan vs Everybody.  This is just another example.

Go Blue..

P.S. - I respect Bama, but.. I also respect Michigan.

A really good example of "why" is to take a look at the reaction to the "Michigan's response when they heard they were facing Alabama" video. 

The Internet's/ESPN/Public's Perception: 

Michigan players were scared and not happy when they learned FSU wasn't going to be their opponent in the Rose Bowl. Facing Alabama put fear into their eyes. 

Now whether you believe that perception or not is not the point. The point is that the general public has been made to believe Alabama is the same Alabama team for the past 17 years. Take this with the understanding that most fans don't know more about the sport than what they see on Saturdays and Sundays. 

It's based on everything, to answer your question. It's great for clicks! It hypes the game! It brings them money! It's also good for us, we've been under the gun all year and this keeps that going. 

Gotta beat the best to be the best. Go Blue.

Alabama is public. They are a "known" quantity based on Saben. Hard to argue with the betting logic. I wouldn't pay much attention to it until a day or two before the game.

'bama barely beat three unranked teams and by all rights should not even be in the CFP..... BUT they're 'bama and the  CFP committee, like the NCAA, is up the SEC's ass. 

Michigan was never really in trouble all season, only two games were decided by a single score and only one of them was truly contested on the final drive, against (at that time) the #2 team in the country.

The only reason the general public is on the wrong side of this game would be SEC bias, Michigan's less than stellar history in post season results and/or the ridiculous 'they've only been winning because they've illegally stole signs' narrative.

If Michigan does what they're capable of, they'll take care of 'bama and go on to Houston.

ONWARD!  GO BLUE!

it's based on them having five stars at every position. They have the talent advantage even in a peak roster year for Michigan. They also have a coach that has won 7 national championships. 

I'm leaning more towards Alabama after seeing how our offense has performed since Purdue. Sure we've faced some good defenses but these aren't Alabama level teams either. If our Oline can't block Iowa they aren't gonna be able to block roided up 5*s from Alabama either 

Bet.

A lot of people think Alabama is a “lock.” I think those people are about to find out how Vegas was built.

Taking into account Michigan record of post season and their inability of containing running quarterback, I would also bet against Michigan.

Hopefully this is the year to change the trend

Seems like an opportunity to bet on Michigan and win a lot.

Betting culture is another thing wrong with CFB.  My humble opinion.

Michigan will beat Alabama.

SEC

They win a lot

We lose bowl games

I love an undefeated, three-peat pissed off big10 champion, being the underdog in a game they have been working towards for 12 months.

I'll take that bet.

Take the fandom out and it makes sense why a lot of people are thinking that Bama would win. Coach that has won seven titles, does great in bowl games, has 20+ five-star players, has almost a month to plan, etc. Versus a coach who's lost his six bowl games, looks their worst at the end of the year, and an offense that hasn't changed much. 

I'm hoping Michigan finally breaks through this year. I'd love to see a national championship won in my fandom lifetime, but overall, I'm happy with beating OSU three years in a row. 

We know its all pre-determine like the WWE. 

Gambling has ruined any sense of ethics in sports and eventually it will be known that Refs, league officials & NCAA were all "in-on-it" pre-determining outcomes to line the pockets.

Wait and see if the house likes Michigan - - that's the only question. 

Go Blue. 

My bets are 100% emotional hedge.  I’ll bet more on Bama as we get closer to the game and I have my spending money free.  
 

I’m sure the sharps are betting Bama due to name, recent history, etc.  Sharps do get it wrong every now and then.

Go Blue

This is why Alabama is playing the game. F' Alabama and the Ess Eee See. FSU is going to schadenfreude the hell out of this game.

The line is moving because of the bets and you already answered your question: it’s all of that. Recency bias for both UGA and TCU while Bama has gone to win time after time after time. Alabama is a hot brand and will be for a while - even if they don’t play to standard. They’ll get the benefit of the doubt over a UM team who says their back, dominates the B1G for a couple years (after tanking for a decade) but can’t seem to win a semifinal game - even when they draw the “easy” team. Now, I think this team is different but I’m also severely biased. The cool part is, they actually have to play the game so we’ll definitely find out and all these opinions will waft out of the outhouse and we’ll start arguing about next year or something. 

Four things…

Get the OL reps with the new lineup.  Bama has a strong DL, and Zak’s loss is notable.  20 practices - Moore, Newsome, and the OL depth chart have time to address this.

Get healthy - JJ and Will Johnson didn’t seem to be 100% at season’s end.  They have time to get healthy.

Scheme and creativity.  We saw very little “non traditional” plays throughout the season.  The one play that stands out is Edwards halfback pass.  I trust the staff to gameplan well.

Michigan vs Everybody.  This culture - Team 144 is strong.  Build on it.. there’s unfinished business, the team realizes it.

Go Blue!

Any other year people would be rooting for Michigan over Bama.  With all the BS lies about Michigan this season most people will be rooting for Bama. Face it, people are stupid and will believe anything on TV.  If people think the only reason Michigan wins is because they cheated then they're not going to bet on them.

Vegas doesn't like losing money though. So everyone taking bama and Michigan winning would be a big deal.  Bama is good, but they allow a lot of points to be scored on them by teams that aren't very good.  Michigan will score on them.  Will the defense make things hard on them though?

Good.  Michigan vs. Everybody has been working for us…

• Harbaugh has a trash post season record at M
• Saban is very good in the post season
• Our offense has looked much more shaky in the second half of the season. 
• Teams, I think, are pretty close talent-wise
• Iron Bowl is often a mess and win is a win
• Bama just beat Georgia(!) so they must be Gods.

I think it’s a combination of a number of factors 

sec bias

alabama’s recent success overall 

Alabama beating back to back champions Georgia 

milroy looked very good in the sec championship 

michigan’s cfp failures 

we’ve won but the last several games have shown a workman like but not exciting Michigan offense.  It’s looked like the kind that the “ sec speed” can potentially dominate.  
 

that said , I think we win because like sec commissioner said “ one of these is like the other “ and to me it’s that the Georgia and Alabama teams are not like the ones we have seen in recent years.  I don’t think they are as good as they have been. I also think we’ve been playing hurt , literally, McCarthy’s leg, then Zak, will , and no hc for 3 games.  
 

But I hope it keeps going this way. Make us 10 point underdogs and fuel the fire!!!  This team reacts like Jordan and Brady.  They take slights and use them to be better. 

18 days ago, we scored on 2 FGs and a safety in the entire second half against Maryland. (brought up only to counter the "11 days ago they needed a miracle")

I'm as big a Michigan fan as anyone, but IF I was a betting man, I'd put money on Bama too. It's not some huge sign of disrespect to Michigan that we should take personally lol

Since you asked....

We lost big in both playoff games.  The public has that in its memory. 

In memory it also has the number of national championships Alabama has.   

Until we win a title, this is how the perception will be. I totally expected this, that the line would move to even, or favor them slightly, by kickoff.  Call it recency bias.

This is just on par with how most of the media views Michigan. I have heard several of the talking heads who think Michigan has no chance against Bama.

I mean I am literally listening to Matt Barrie on Dusty and Danny bashing Michigan. Him and Finebaum have been bashing UM ever since the scandal broke, but he said he would rank Michigan 4th amongst the playoff teams.

Said the offense/JJ isnt good enough and UM hasnt faced really any good offenses. Said UM kept OSU in the box..LOL. Gave them no credit for the win. It really is hilarious the hate for UM.

Said Texas is his pick, but didnt say a word about the dog shit team Texas has played and struggled with.

Oh and also said FSU would most likely have beaten UM.

Would be so nice if UM wins. So many people would have to eat crow.