Line Stats, OL vs. DL: When Ohio State Has the Ball

This post analyzes the Line Stats provided by Football Outsiders when Ohio State has the ball. A similar prior post addressed the same stats when Michigan has the ball.

 

Average Line Yards – Rushing yards per play attributed to the OL

Ohio State offense 3rd vs. Michigan defense 73rd

Standard downs: Ohio State 2nd vs. Michigan 49th

Passing downs: Ohio State 23rd vs. Michigan 67th

Welp, I didn’t expect this. I did expect that Ohio State’s O-line would be ranked pretty high, but I did not expect that Michigan’s rush defense would rank this low. I suppose this is a product of Michigan’s DTs against the run?

OSU’s average line yards is 2nd in the nation on standard downs (3.21); their passing down line yards is slightly higher (3.24) but drops way down in the rankings to 23rd.

Ohio State rushes for 5.8 YPC (sacks incl.), tops in the nation. Removing sacks, they’re at 6.3 YPC. Michigan’s 3.7 YPC allowed (sacks incl.) ranks 37th; removing sacks, they give up 4.4 YPC.

Ohio State should have some success rushing the ball, to what extent will Michigan be able to limit their success?

 

Opportunity Rate - % of carries that gain 4+ yards

Ohio State offense 12th vs. Michigan defense 25th

This appears to be the key swing point in this matchup. Ohio State rushes for 4+ yards on 55% of their rushes. Michigan allows opponents to rush for 4+ yards only 43% of carries. Which side of 50/50 this falls on will have a huge impact on how well or not well OSU runs the ball.

 

Stuff Rate - % of carries by RBs stopped at or before line of scrimmage

Ohio State offense 2nd vs. Michigan defense 103rd

Those rankings look to be a huge advantage, but as was stated in the prior post the raw stats for Stuff Rate don’t really look to be terribly different. Ohio State gets stuffed 10.4% of their RB carries (~1 out of 9-10 carries) whereas Michigan’s defensive Stuff Rate is 14.8% (~1 out of 7 carries). That doesn’t look as significant a difference as the rankings would lead us to believe.

If we read between the lines of Stuff Rate & Opportunity Rate, Ohio State runs for between 1-3 yards roughly 35% of the time, lowest frequency of the four (OSU offense/defense & Michigan offense/defense…the other three are each in the 40-42% range):

• 10% = no gain or TFL
• 35% = between 1-3 yards
• 55% = 4+ yards

Michigan’s defense similarly gives up runs of 1-3 yards roughly 42% of the time:

• 15% = no gain or TFL
• 42% = between 1-3 yards
• 43% = 4+ yards

 

Power Success Rate - % of runs on 3rd or 4th down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a 1st down or TD

Ohio State offense 28th vs. Michigan defense 10th

Ohio State converts on 76% of their short-yardage situations. Michigan allows a conversion only 53%.

For all the talk about Michigan’s offense not being good in short-yardage situations (see prior post), they convert on 73% of situations...only 3 percentage points lower than OSU.

 

Sack Rate – excludes garbage time

Ohio State offense 4th vs. Michigan defense 33rd

Standard downs: Ohio State 20th vs. Michigan 61st

Passing downs: Ohio State 8th vs. Michigan 27th

This is the only line stat for passing plays, and one stat doesn’t do justice to the greatest head-to-head matchup of the game: Hutch/Ojabo vs. OSU’s OTs. You all know how much PFF loves Hutch & Ojabo…PFF also loves Ohio State’s offensive tackles. This will be the marquee matchup for NFL scouts to watch. (The 2nd biggest marquee head-to-head matchup will be Dax and whoever he’s covering [probably Wilson, but maybe Smith-Njigba?].)

Like Michigan’s offense, Ohio State rarely allows a sack (2.4%). And Michigan puts more pressure on the QB than what these sack rates show (7.7%). Getting to Stroud will be key for Michigan. Michigan cranks it up on passing downs: 5.6% on standard downs, 10.1% on passing downs.

If Ohio State gets away with ~45x2 uncalled holding penalties, they should be in great shape to protect Stroud. But if a couple holds get called, causing the OSU line to get tentative with their hands, and Hutch and/or Ojabo are able to get consistent pressure, that could make the difference in the game.

 

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Ohio State gets 4+ yards on a minority of carries.
• Ohio State is successful on ~50% of their short-yardage situations.
• Ohio State gets called for holding once or twice against Hutch/Ojabo.

Worry if…

• Ohio State gets 4+ yards on a majority of carries
• Ohio State is rushing for 6+ YPC.
• Stroud stays clean.