Let's talk about Ohio State

I believe they go 9-3 at best this year.  I'm going to provide some rationale and some clips and many will say it's wrong, everything works out for them.  Based on the last 15 years, that's entirely rational.  But there was once a man named Cooper.  The need for salt mine levels of caution here is obvious, of course, I'm a guy on the internet, what the hell do I know. 

Head coach: Everyone know this – Ryan Day is an internal hire who independent of that is not nearly qualified for the head job at OSU.  “Lincoln Riley,” they say.  “Luke Fickell,” I say.  Look at this Wikipedia page, it’s not impressive.  Brilliant game plan vs. Michigan last year, guided Haskins to all-world numbers, led them to 3-0.  1) Conceded, 2) Was that Haskins becoming Haskins or Day helping Haskins become Haskins?, 3) who cares, Meyer was still in charge of the team.  Make your own judgments, but the ultimate test: if Harbaugh had left for the NFL and Michigan hired Day, would you have been happy?

Defensive coordinator: Mattison is an odd hire.  Rumor is that Day wanted Brown and was rebuffed, so Meyer engineered this move.  Great recruiter, good DL coach.  Well he’s only co-DC, they say, Day brought in a guy named Jeff Hafley to be co-DC with him.  That guy must be a comer, young genius DC who will be the real brains behind the operation.  Here’s that guy’s resume:

• Worcester Polytechnic (2001)
  (Running Backs Coach)[4]
• Albany (2002–2003)
  (Defensive Assistant)
• Albany (2004–2005)
  (Secondary Coach & Recruiting Coordinator)
• Pittsburgh (2006−2007)
  (Defensive Assistant)
• Pittsburgh (2008−2010)
  (Secondary Coach)
• Rutgers (2011)
  (Secondary Coach)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2012)
  (Assistant Secondary Coach)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013)
  (Secondary Coach)
• Cleveland Browns (2014–2015)
  (Secondary Coach)
• San Francisco 49ers (2016–2018)
  (Secondary Coach)
• Ohio State (2019–present)
  (Co–Defensive Coordinator & Secondary Coach)

Meh.  “He’s an NFL guy”, they say.  I mean, so were a lot of guys.  Hoke was, after the Michigan debacle.  So was Greg Robinson, before it.  And it doesn’t look like he’s really the co-DC at all, he’s just running the secondary.  Maybe Hafley is just taking a true year of being babysat by Mattison and observing before he takes over more control in 2020, but right now he’s just sitting on the couch watching a movie.  This is Mattison’s scheme, full stop.  Is that great?  He’s installing a Viper, which they’ve unimaginatively re-named the “Bullet”.  Mattison didn’t run a Viper when he was last DC, which means he’s picking it up from Don Brown.  So this is not Mattison running his 4-3 Under/Over that he ran at Michigan, but him running another guy’s defense.  Did he pick the whole thing up in two years?  I’m sure he did, he’s smart, and experienced.  He’s 70.  Still, it seems rational to wonder if Mattison will go back to what he knows, a 4-3.  And what do you know, look here.  As the article states, it seems like they might be using a 4-3 more than the 4-2-5.  Who knows, it’s Fall camp, take everything with a grain of salt.  But you’ve already moved your 2nd best safety to Viper, you can’t put him back at safety 3 weeks into camp. 

In this year’s HTTV, an Eleven Warriors writer gives a glowing review of the entire team, including the defense.  He draws a direct comparison of this Mattison/Hafley co-DC marriage to that of the co-OC arrangement between Kevin Wilson and Ryan Day: an old guy / young guy combination of best of both worlds.  That seems a logical comparison.  But a much better one is OSU’s co-DC arrangement last year: Greg Schiano and Alex Grinch, the very same old guy / young guy combo.  By all accounts it was a disaster. 

Once again make your own judgments, but the ultimate test remains: if Brown had left for Maryland and Michigan hired Mattison and Hafley, would you have been happy?

Defense: You know it wasn’t great last year.  Big plays everywhere.  One of the worst in recent OSU memory.  Well, all those players are back.  Except for Bosa and the excellent Dremont Jones, who together accounted for 14 points against TCU and the win.  Bosa was out after that game, yes, Jones was excellent all year (13 TFL's and an insane 9 sacks from the DT position).  Was the problem scheme or players?  The answer is both.  

This is the Maryland game, and OSU was awful against them.  It’s the 2nd play from scrimmage.  Look at the bottom of the screen, #3 Damon Arnette the CB.  He very obviously has contain on this play.  He blows it spectacularly.  This is the 11th game of the season.  Then he completely gives up in a DGAF trot almost immediately.  Also see #25 Brendon White, the safety behind him (he has since been moved to Viper), taking a really terrible angle as the last line of defense (ignore his lack of speed in pursuit, because Macfarland is a burner).  Arnette is terrible here, unforgivably bad.  He’s back as the starter. 
 

https://youtu.be/2czvgPJnQj0?t=22

"WTF Damon?" 
 

https://youtu.be/d0KRLoN-oNg?t=121

Same game, just a few plays later, Arnette #3 at the bottom and White #25 as the safety.  Understandably, Maryland says hey, why not try that shit again?  Arnette says fuuuuuuck no I’m not losing contain and gets laughably wide.  White has to fill the alley.  There’s no one behind him and he knows it.  Macfarland is good but come on.
 

https://youtu.be/2czvgPJnQj0?t=139

Maryland.  Watch another returning player, LB Malik Harrison #39, bottom of the screen between the DE and DT.  Maryland will mess with you, but this guy is following a motion man who’s running into 4 of his fellow defenders, and he’s completely abandoning his gap to do so.  The Maryland lineman they brought over to block him doesn’t even have anything to do.  People get got, it happens, but it happened way too much for OSU last year.  This isn’t Schiano’s fault.
 

https://youtu.be/d0KRLoN-oNg?t=2421

Maryland.  This is most definitely Schiano’s fault.  Watch the DE and LB (#39, Harrison) at the top of the screen.  They’re switching roles.  For some ungodly reason.  The DE drifts in to play middle gap, the LB has to run to the edge to contain.  I’m sure there are reasons to do this.  All of them are lost on these players.  What this created was a DE playing LB and a LB playing DE, and neither knows how to, you know, do that.  Watch Harrison in particular: he gets to the outside and contains, but he needs to fight off that block.  Contain itself is not the goal if the defense is in that bad of shape on the play – you need to get off and make a play on the man.
 

https://youtu.be/2czvgPJnQj0?t=208

OSU spring game.  This is probably unfair but I'm making an assumption based on what I see: this LB doesn't fully understand what holding the edge means.  Watch Harrison #39 here, same guy from the clip above, top LB on the screen.  He comes over and takes on the block in exactly the same way: he gets contain, but doesn’t squeeze the hole or get his hands on the ballcarrier or even slow him down.  It’s actually hard to tell who’s the blocker and who’s the defender there.  You have to squeeze or spill there, because the offense would love you to eat this block. 
 

https://youtu.be/ZzKpWWfS8W4?t=1693

 
Maryland.  Let's talk about #3 Damon Arnette again, at the bottom of the screen.  He’s going against a freshman wide receiver who had 9 catches for 148 yards last year.  Here are 60 of them.  Mr. Gattis, throw deep all day all downs please.
 

https://youtu.be/2czvgPJnQj0?t=478

PSU.  #3 CB at the top of the screen, absolutely pancaked by the TE.
 

https://youtu.be/4yL0BGJjoMY?t=459

TCU.  Arnette #3 at the bottom of the screen, obviously holding and interfering with the WR, gets flagged.  This is a constant issue with Arnette, and the multitudes of OSU fans that hate him will tell you all about it.  No one has been able to supplant him this Fall.  He has talent, he could certainly turn it around.  Not likely.  I bet someone else is starting over him by mid-year.  This is a Hafley project, so watch this closely for clues on his coaching ability. 
 

https://youtu.be/dvDs36SPO7E?t=498

TCU.  A twofor on the other two OSU LB’s besides Harrison: Borland and Werner.  They are fine and just that.  Borland #32 is a slow Desmond Morgan who plays ILB, Werner #20 is a fast but blockable one who plays OLB (on the hash).  We loved Morgan because he quality player and a thumper on a Michigan defense emerging from the desert.  But you wouldn’t expect him to show up on a defense that recruits the way OSU does.  Much less two of him.  On this play ILB Borland is simply not athletic enough to make a difference, OLB Werner gets de-cleated by a 5’9” 180 lb. freshman slot WR.  Sure it’s blindside hit, but that’s the job today at OLB – you have to know that’s coming because you get cracked all day.  Both are fine, they tackle people and hold their gaps and they’re fine.  They’re the 3rd/4th  best LB’s for Iowa, but they’re playing for Ohio State.
 

https://youtu.be/dvDs36SPO7E?t=412

TCU.  Another for the LBs.  It’s only a 6 yard gain, but you see what they are: jet sweep and #20 Werner blocked to the ground, and #32 Borland just doesn’t have the speed to make a difference on the play.
 

https://youtu.be/dvDs36SPO7E?t=672

Maryland.  Don’t watch this, because it’s a B1G title going up in smoke.  #20 OLB Werner has the inside slot, #4 S Fuller has the outside slot.  Not sure if they were supposed to switch or stay, but they both follow the inside man.  This is a wide open WR, not even covered.  This is scheme because these guys don’t know what to do.  Both return this year.  This missed throw is also the difference between LOL Ohio State and Harbaugh being the no-doubt leader in the B1G coming into 2019.  This is Meyer you deserve it fuck off into the sunset karma vs. another year of pain for Michigan fans.  When people say “It doesn’t matter, you HAVE TO MAEK PLAYZZZ AND WIN THE GAMEEZZZ” remember this play.  Did OSU make a play here?  Is this MAEK PLAYZZ?  They lucked into a win against a 5-7 football team.  They did nothing here.  In fact they did everything wrong and deserved to lose.  This is a blind universe.  There is no such thing as love. 
 

https://youtu.be/2czvgPJnQj0?t=665

Wide Receivers:  The best ones are gone to the NFL.  You know they had crazy speed, but they were also absolutely fantastic blockers.  Talent remains, but not to last year’s levels. 

Offensive Line: OL: Who knows?  They lose 4 starters.  Munford is back at LT and he’s OK.  He could take a leap in his second year starting but otherwise he’s just fine.  They get all-B1G Jonah Jackson from Rutgers, which in Draftgeddon they mention grad transfer interior OL don’t usually work out.  I don’t know the reason for this, but I’ll take that as a point of risk.  They have a new Center nobody’s seen, highly rated, first year.  No idea.  The other guard is Wyatt Davis, highly rated, did play two games last year and looked pretty good.  Then then the right tackle is a kid named Bowen, who’s been off the depth chart for two years due to injury.  Will he be good?  Who knows?  He was playing guard in the spring.  That’s not a lot of reliability on the offensive line.  The back-up tackles are Josh Alabi (from Cass Tech, the kid who brought Weber with him to OSU) and Nicholas Petit-Friere (a guy Michigan recruited hard): the former is a 5th year senior who neither the coaches nor the fans ever want to see the field, and the latter is a redshirt freshman who’s not ready based on his performance in the spring game. 

Fields/QB:  I don’t know, neither does anyone else.  What we might know, based on what seems to be consensus insider info:

• Super recruit, but only started one year of high school football
• Didn’t do much at UGA, rumored to not have studied the playbook much
• Did not have a great spring at OSU, struggled picking up the offense (understandable, it’s known as a difficult offense to pick up)
• Did not have a great first two weeks of camp (in the team’s first scrimmage, two pick 6’s were thrown, and since no insiders would say he threw them, you know exactly who threw them)
• Had a great 3rd week of Fall camp and is named the starter

So if you’re keeping count, that’s multiple weeks of spring ball bad, two weeks of Fall camp bad, and 1 week of Fall camp good.  That’s not great math for the Buckeyes.  I’m going to guess they simplified everything, had him run more, and turned the offense into screen city in the 3rd week.  That allowed Fields to win the job, but it won’t win OSU 10 games.  Watch for the coming of screen city during the season – they had to break out in the PSU game last year in order to win, even with Haskins and those WR's.  Do they have to resort to it against Cincinnati?  If yes they’re in trouble this year.  And of course you know the back-ups are QBs unplayable.  And while Dobbins is a very good back, a back-up at RB hasn't really emerged. 

 

Summary.  Their DL is excellent, and their #1 corner very good.  Fuller their #1 safety is probably very good.  The negative things I've clipped above are selective to support my view, and may be biased in terms of what I want to see.  All those players of course made good plays during the season.  But I believe it captures some of the why on Defense.  I've droned on long enough.  I don't see 10 wins here.  I see a loss to Michigan, MSU (Fields will have real trouble against that defense) and at least one of @Nebraska/@NW/Wiscy/Cinci/PSU.  If they have to run Fields to have a functional offense and he's injured early in the year for an extended period, 7-5 is on the table.