Klatt Says CFP Got it Wrong - Michigan Much Better than Clemson
In the 30 min video, he breaks down their SEC bias and how even TCU should be ranked ahead of Clemson.
The video is cued up to his Michigan comments:
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
Yeah, I don't know if the Committee has watched Clemson play... not impressive. I think it is more so that they do not want two Big Ten teams in the Playoff because frankly Big Ten teams have not been particularly competitive (OSU kind of has, in spurts). If you start with two Big Ten teams in the top 4 it is much harder to justify keeping one out, I think.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^
I understand that's what they're doing, but I think it's inherently wrong. Yesteryear's teams should not have any impact on this year, and they're constantly showing that it does, which is why Alabama is #6.
Joel's best point here is that the committee is essentially saying that the burden of proof of quality is not on the usual top teams but the "newcomers" which shouldn't even be a phrase. He uses TCU and Alabama as an example. Alabama doesn't need to prove to us that they're really good, but TCU does. If you look at this year's results alone, TCU has been much more impressive than Alabama.
I get that most playoff games have been blowouts and they want to create better match-ups, but I don't think that's a good way to run the sport (i.e. not looking at this season's body of work alone). The message they're sending keeps the lopsided power structure in place, which will keep the playoff blowouts coming.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:44 PM ^
Actually Klatt is suggesting that Alabama is the standard by which all others will be judged for playoff contention. AP pollsters and the CFP Committee has essentially enabled Alabama to remain viable for the NC game at No. 6, hovering with one loss while other unbeatens must continue that status to make it to the big game.
If Alabama were to lose again, it would be out. But unless it does, it remains in the running with an almost certain chance to get into the final contest with a conference championship win in a rematch with Tennessee or showdown with Georgia.
Compare that scenario to Michigan's cut and dry situation. Lose to Ohio State, and the Wolverines are looking at a New Years6 game out of playoff consideration.
And who knows if Alabama and their conference championship opponent play some kind of dramatic finish contest, there may well be sentiment to keep them in the playoff hunt. The SEC bias is overwhelming and it is being pushed as The Conference over every other by the committee.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
No one who looks at power ratings thinks the ACC even belongs in the P5
There are NINE Big 10 teams rated better in SP+ than the 2nd place ACC team. Clemson is the only ACC team in the top 32, and even they are only #11. They are just a little bit better than every mediocre team on their schedule.
Even a mediocre Notre Dame team -- who can't seem to beat anyone else comfortably -- has handled two "ranked" ACC teams easily thus far
*Edit: sorry, it's now eight big 10 teams, not nine. Purdue dropped a few spots after last week to #36 -- just behind Clemson's "impressive wins" (FSU, Wake) but still ahead of their likeliest championship game opponent, UNC
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
Newton, when Saturday's games come to a close, I hope the number of ranked ACC teams that ND has handled increases from two to three.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
I would not be surprised if Notre Dame beats Clemson this week and it won't matter.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
Would it be a sign that "Clemsoning" is back from the dead?
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
No... I think that Clemson has emphatically beat that term back. I mean, they did win a couple of playoff championships with legit good teams. This years version is not a good team, but it doesn't change what those other teams did to overcome 'Clemsoning'.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
Can't remember the last time I rooted for ND as hard as I will this Saturday. Not just because Clemson is a fraud that needs to be exposed, but that Dabo is just an execrable human
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^
The way Clemson got gifted the Syracuse win by the refs has me rooting for ND as well.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
on the other hand if ND gets trounced we will probably have a better shot at flipping some top recruits into our class, ND will go down the toilet and Clemson will get exposed one way or another.
Nothing has changed for Michigan. Beat OSU, and go. Lose and don't. Honestly don't think if we can't beat OSU we should be there, because frankly OSU hasn't looked all that good this season when they've played halfway decent teams.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
I'm fine with that, in general, as I like to keep the regular season stakes ratcheted super high. However, a couple things:
- If we lose to OSU by a score or less, or in OT, why would we get penalized for that when another team will likely suffer a loss and get in? We reward conference champions but a lot of that is good or bad luck in how divisions are aligned.
I think if the consensus adjustment is to give 3-4 points for handicapping home-field advantage, a team could still be the "best team" and lose close on the road. In that scenario, if we are letting in *any* 1-loss teams, Michigan would have a good argument.
- A look at any power ratings suggests that if Michigan had Clemson's schedule, they would sleepwalk to 13-0. Whereas Clemson is lucky they don't have anyone nearly as good as Penn State on their schedule -- let alone that they don't have to go anywhere near Columbus.
November 2nd, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
I don't think Penn State is any better than WF/NC/NC St/Syracuse. They'd probably split in playing those four.
Let's face it, the Big 10 after Michigan and OSU isn't very good this year. Just like the ACC, with Clemson the only good team. The Big 12 and Pac 12 may not be that good, but at least the top teams are competitive within their set.
This is the perfect year for us to have 4 of the 5 conference champions play it out, like the whole thing was intended from the beginning.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
I don't think Penn State is any better than WF/NC/NC St/Syracuse.
Do you ever look at power ratings? Because Penn State is a touchdown favorite over all of those teams on a neutral field. In the case of Syracuse, a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile Clemson needed very kind officiating to escape Syracuse at home.
I don't know how you have any basis for making this statement. Not going to hear "eyeball test" as Vegas was built on bad eyeball-tests.
Sweeping statements like "the Big 10 isn't very good" just have no basis. Compared to what? Because when compared to the ACC, it's very, very good.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:39 PM ^
SP+ vehemently disagrees about Penn State vs. the ACC teams you mentioned. Penn State is 16, WF/NC/NC St/Syracuse are 35, 38, 44 and 49 respectively.
The Massey composite is a bit friendlier to the ACC with Penn State at 15 and the next closest, Syracuse, at 20.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
Those teams dont play defense. Yeah PSU isnt great offensively but they are a stout defense and would run all over those ACC teams. Youve got to watch some of these ACC games. Have you watched them?
Wake gave up 25 to Vanderbilt and 36 to Liberty. This team is one of the reasons Clemson is ranked 4th. Last second win over Liberty.
NC State scored 9 yep 9 against Syracuse. They also won 21-20 to East Carolina. Come on man.
Syracuse has averaged 22.5 ppg against Clemson and Notre Dame the last couple weeks. Also a 22-20 win over Virginia. Virginia.
Is the ACC based on last second wins vs shit teams? Seriously. You and the playoff committee arent watching lets be honest.
Illinois would be the second best team in the the ACC.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
You would have a point about the strength of OSU if almost every "expert" wasn't backing off a cliff while fawning all over them. They shouldn't be allowed to have it both ways. In the past the committee has actually done pretty well...but this year may be more messy than most.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
Let's just say that people who are always wishing for "southern teams to have to play up North in real football weather" may get their wish in that game. The day is calling for rain and wind, with gusts up to 40 mph, with the temperature dropping into the low 40s as it gets dark. (Game is a 7:30 kickoff).
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
Meh, this will all sort itself out in the end. These initial polls really don't Klatter...
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
They 100% do. The committee just made sure that Michigan's only shot is to go undefeated. If they were 4 and lost a close one to OSU at OSU, the committee could make the argument they still deserve a shot. By putting them at 5, they only get consideration by going undefeated. By also putting Alabama ahead of TCU, they lay the groundwork for the narrative if they beat the winner of the Geogia / Tennessee game, that at least 2, if not 3 (especially if it's Georgia that wins) deserve a shot. This looks 100% like an agenda and not objective ranking.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
No. Michigan could lose to Illinois, beat OSU, beat Illinois in the BIG CG and still make the playoffs. It is, and always has been, about beating Ohio State.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
The funny thing is you people eat it up that either Georgia or Tennessee get a mulligan but Michigan does not. Its got to make it pretty easy when the playoff committee knows they have allies even within the Michigan fan base.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
Not necessarily. The committee isn't above massive swings, even at the last minute. In 2014, 10-1 TCU was #3 in the second-to-last CFP poll (going into conference championship week), ahead of undefeated FSU, one-loss OSU and one-loss Baylor (who beat TCU by 3 at home, but had a blowout loss to mediocre WVU). The Big XII was weird that year, with no championship game (due to only having 10 teams), but most of their teams had their regular season finale on conference championship Saturday. So despite beating ISU 55-3 to move to 11-1, TCU was jumped by all three of those teams I listed above, and finished #6 in the final CFP rankings.
Not saying it would happen--I personally agree, we need to beat OSU to get in--but just because one team is ranked ahead of another now doesn't mean they would stay there.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:25 PM ^
This is set up so that 1 loss OSU gets into the playoff, but 1 loss Michigan doesn’t. And that’s the really annoying part, because if 11-0 Michigan and OSU meet in Columbus and play a competitive game, I don’t see how you consider either one substantially better based on the first 11 games.
Both are better than Clemson.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
To an extent, the initial CFP rankings matter. But this is a year-to-date ranking, not a projection. For an 11-1 Michigan to make it into the playoff, the PAC 12 and Big 12 winner would both need to have 2 losses and Clemson would need to lose once, at the very least. 12-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Michigan vs. an 11-1 3rd SEC team would be the debate, and it would likely come down to how the committee sees each loss. And that scenario assumes Alabama wins out and wins the SEC.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
Wrong. If you watch through the end of the video, Joel makes great point about why it matters now. Teams are building a resume constantly. Having a resume argument of a victory over the overrated #19, #22, #23 teams in CFP (Clemson) looks better than CFP ignoring the rest of the B1G and Michigan having zero victories over CFP teams.
It's simply a way to make Clemson/SEC wins look more impressive than they really are.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
He is not wrong, but this will get settled. It would be helpful for ND to take care of Clemson and end this, so I expect ND loses by 28.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
The LSU over-rank is the killer. The committee wants two SEC teams at all costs and will take 3 if they can. LSU's ranking sets them up for that.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
I think the Texas ranking is even worse. They're 5-3 and their best win is...Iowa State? Oklahoma without its starting QB?
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
Well, given the CFP semis and championship are being aired by ESPN and ESPN will soon no longer be able to air B1G games, they will do all they can to increase the SEC and hurt the B1G. This is just the first major shot in the new ratings war on the way.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^
It's funny how this late in the season (November!!) and the top 10 is a rickety mess of frauds.
Tennessee is sitting at #1 for their win over Alabama (best win over 5-3 Texas) and their win over LSU (best win over Ole Miss - whose best win is 5-3 Kentucky). Probably worthy of their ranking, but it's honestly being held together by popsicle sticks.
Ohio St's best win is PSU whose best win is....5-3 Purdue? 3-5 Auburn?
Georgia hasn't played a soul since week 1, but it's arguably the best win in the country over Oregon. Oregon has a win over UCLA, who has a win over Utah, who has a win over USC, who has a win over Oregon St whose best win is 6-2 Boise St, which is probably the deepest resume on the poll. Although Utah's loss to 4-4 Florida, and the level of Oregon's loss to Georgia put the Pac 12's actual strength in question. Should that group of schools eating each other's tails be in the 10/Teens or the 20/30s?
Clemson's best wins over Syracuse and Wake are questionable. Syracuse/Wake/NCSt are a poor man's version of the Pac 12s dance.
Michigan: See OSU's resume and remove a bad ND team from the schedule.
Bama's best win is over a Texas team they probably didn't quite deserve to beat.
TCU has strong wins over Oklahoma St (propped up on a win over Texas) and Kansas St (who lost to TULANE and is propped up on a win over Oklahoma St that was so big it brings into question OK St., Texas, and even Bama's credentials).
Oregon/USC are touched on in the Georgia Section
LSU also covered above re: Ole Miss (best win is Kentucky which sends you down a line of a bunch of 5-3 teams who benefit from playing 4 OOC games)
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
Clemson is closer to Penn St than Michigan. If Clemson had Penn State's schedule, they would be 6-2.
Also, I have yet to hear anyone in the national media/analysts etc, that think the committee got it right with Clemson at 4.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
You can make an argument that Clemson might lose on the road to Purdue, so 5-3 wouldn't be out of the question.
Hell, swap Clemson with Indiana or Rutgers this season and what do you think their record looks like at the end?
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
I like the idea of Clemson playing Purdue. Maybe in their bowl game?
November 2nd, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
Dan Mullen does. After being fired from UF for sucking at his job, ESPN brought him onto the College Gameday Final set along with Galloway. Now we all know that Galloway is a tool, but he had Michigan at #4 on Sunday's show when they were previewing/predicting the committee rankings. Mullen? Mullen had Michigan at #6, behind both Clemson and TCU.
I mean, what in the living fuck with that guy?
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:41 PM ^
He's bitter that we hired Harbaugh when he was the plan b choice had Jim stayed in the NFL.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
For Michigan it won't matter in the end, take care of business and we're in, but for other teams, like he says later in his show, it definitely matters as they are building a resume based on what the committee thinks. Does anyone truly believe that Syracuse, Wake Forest, and NC State are back to back to back the 20th, 21st, and 22nd best teams in the nation? Doubt it; looks like they were stuffed in there to justify Clemson's standing, to me. For TCU, this is huge; what if Texas, Ok State, and Kansas State were all ranked higher? Clemson would have fallen behind TCU in the rankings, probably, maybe even leapfrog us.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
That's one of my pet peeves. They use circular logic to justify rankings based on other rankings. They say "Clemson has 3 ranked wins, Michigan only has 1", but that depends on them ranking those 3 teams the way they did. They could have just as easily ranked a 6-2 Maryland at #25, dropped out one of Syracuse or NC State, and used that to justify Michigan at #4.
The only reason Bama has a "ranked win" is because they decided a 3-loss Texas team with no quality wins somehow earned a spot at #24. "Bama beat a ranked team that almost beat Bama!!!"
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
They also start at the top and work their way down. So when discussing Michigan and Clemson, there are no ranked teams below them. It's flat out lying to say those ranked wins factor in.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
I… don’t think that’s true? That’s literally impossible when you’re using “Clemson has better wins than Michigan” to justify the 4 vs. 5. You can’t reach that conclusion without having a ranking (even unofficially) of the other teams in mind.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
That's how Klatt broke down how they rank teams. They start at the top, then drop down 2-3 spots as the poll solidifies itself.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
This is 100% the issue. Well stated. The committee just manipulated its rankings to justify its manipulated rankings.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
Massey would favor Texas over Clemson by 3 on a neutral field; Sagarin by 1 1/2.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:59 PM ^
Michigan fans-
"Hey playoff committee dont worry about us if we go on the road at #1or#2 and win we are in."
Georgia/Tenn/Bama fans-
"We would graciously like to thank the committee and Michigan fans for agreeing with us if any of us has 1 loss we are in!"
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
The CFP is using their conference wins over currently ranked teams as the determining factor. It's the only thing that makes sense. Pitt needs to beat Syracuse and MD needs to beat Wisconsin. If the 'Cuse loses, that will likely give Clemson only one win against a team in the next CFP poll. Same as us, unless they rank Maryland, which would give us more.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
I mean he's not wrong and it also doesnt matter.
If we run the table we're in no matter what Clemson does. We'll have beaten Illini, OSU and whatever sacrificial lamb the west delivers for destruction in the championship game. My prediction in that timeline is we enter the college bowl tourney as the #2 seed behind whoever wins the SEC given the quality of our wins.
If we win all our games except OSU I would bet anything we're heading to the Rose Bowl (or whoever gets to pick first this year) to play the best SEC team not making the playoffs. For us to get in with an OSU loss will require two SEC teams to get two losses because aint no way they're taking a one loss Michigan team in over a one loss Georgia/Alabama or Tennessee. And even then we'll need not only Clemson to lose but prolly TCU and maybe even Oregon and USC because we'll have late loss with no game to recover so we'll drop into the six/seven slot IMO after that game, no matter how close it is.
Just win the games and all will be fine. Actually all will be fine even if we lose to OSU - I mean did ANYONE here think two years ago we'd be where we are right now? I know i sure as hell didnt and I'm appreciating and enjoying every play from every game from here on out.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
When you look at going to the Rose Bowl as a consolation prize, that's one heck of a turnaround.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
Michigan shouldn't have to overcome agenda to make it. You are right, win out and they're in, but that isn't applied to other teams. That is agenda being put out right there.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:34 PM ^
Georgia/Tennessee: Strong chance to survive loss in head-to-head match-up. Only gets complicated if Bama+TCU/Clemson wins out.
Michigan/Ohio St: Weak chance to survive loss in head-to-head match-up. Needs Bama, TCU, Clemson, Oregon, USC, UCLA
Clemson controls their own destiny, but one slip up and they are done.
TCU might control their own destiny, but one slip up and they are done. If Clemson wins out, one of Mich/OSU wins out, and the Tennessee/Georgia winner loses to a Bama team that wins out, I think an undefeated TCU stays home. It might not even be that complicated. Tennessee loses by 1 on the road to the eventual undefeated SEC Champ Georgia Bulldogs? Well, Bama is rated ahead of undefeated TCU right now. Why would the Hornfrogs jump a team that beat Bama already?
1-loss Pac 12 champ is probably left out no matter what.
So, while Michigan isn't in the poll position here, there are worse agendas that need to be overcome.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
My thoughts exactly. And what a turnaround - in November 2020 a non-zero number of fans were calling for Harbaugh to be replaced. That was 20 wins (including one over OSU), a B1G championship, and a CFP appearance ago.