Just Rewatched TCU/K-State...(thoughts/notes)
Michigan on Offense:
- TCU runs a 3-3-5 Stack (like Michigan in the Rich Rod days). They don't seem to like to get away from it, however, they'll go with a 3-4 in "and short" situations. Removing the NB and adding another LB. Usually they just crowd the LOS and try to find gaps to get the TFLs (in "and short" situations).
- One thing Michigan doesn't do incredibly well, that TCU doesn't defend well is no-huddle. Michigan should go no-huddle in certain situations and take advantage of TCU's inability to sub, they will be too small. Could be easy yards, especially in the redzone. Don't let them adjust!
- Because TCU doesn't like to deviate from its 3-3-5, the LBs fly up to fill the pockets in the line. Play action could be huge if we can establish a run game. Schoonmaker and Loveland up the seam!
- Olu, Zinter, Keegan are the key to the offense. TCU squeezes their DL to prevent runs up the middle. Our interior line will be the best they've faced all year.
- Speaking of blocking...K-State's WRs did an excellent job blocking TCU DBs, I expect Michigan to do the same.
- JJ's legs will play a huge role, TCU's alignment opens up HUGE run lanes for the QB. For example, they take those 3 interior DL and slant them one direction and then loop a LB around on the backside. Pick up the LB and you've got a huge lane to run, right up the middle.
Michigan on Defense:
- Getting Mike Morris back is major. Michigan has to get pressure with 4. You simply have to stay over the top of Johnson, he's too good otherwise and Duggan throws an incredible deep ball.
- TCU uses the entire width of the field, they throw a ton to the sideline (and not screens). I don't know another team that is this good at finding completions outside the numbers.
- TCU's OL had trouble picking up K-State blitzes...even when they weren't disguising anything. K-State went Cover 0 twice and got sacks both times. That said, if you blitz and don't get home...Duggan is off to the races.
- Duggan isn't afraid to throw a 50/50 ball to Johnson...Even if it's great coverage, Johnson does a great job fighting back to the ball and drawing DPIs. Turner and Johnson have to be careful.
- I didn't see many throws to Johnson underneath, makes you wonder why people don't just give him 10 yards on every play.
- TCU's OL doesn't push people around. They don't just line up and run at you. The big runs are typically "gash" plays. They play the angles and try to seal the DL to create cutback lanes. Again, Michigan must control the LOS and keep the LBs clean. The interior OL will be huge on offense and the interior DL will be huge on defense.
- This might not be the game for Okie and McGregor...2 of the 3 best pass rushers on the team, but they both get out of their lanes really easily. Duggan is fast enough to pickup a 3rd and 8+. He's a Rich Man's Sean Clifford.
Just my two pennies.
December 28th, 2022 at 12:52 AM ^
Good idea, I can’t get to sleep either!!!
December 28th, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^
Just to correct the OP. Our interior OL will be the best ANYONE has faced this year, not just the best TCU has faced.
December 28th, 2022 at 12:54 AM ^
Great write up. You caught much more than I did about the team. I went to the TCU TX game and in person it looked like a team we could beat.
Duggen in the Big12 championship game was on fire, yet he came up just short.
Remember OK State took them to overtime in the regular season as well. TCU had WAY too many close games.
December 28th, 2022 at 3:58 AM ^
We should put up points, that's for sure. Looking at the statistical rankings and the teams' performances this year, TCU's only plausible path to victory is in a shootout. It looks highly unlikely that they can hold us under 35, and I would guess we'll score 40+, which gives the defense a hell of a cushion (as on fire as Duggan was in the Big XII Championship game, they still only scored 28)...
December 28th, 2022 at 12:58 AM ^
I remember the 3-3-5 stack -- designed to stop spread-to-run -- trying to stop Big Ten power offenses. These are not fond memories.
My, how the tables have turned...
December 28th, 2022 at 1:10 AM ^
TCU is #75 in overall defense, and that playing against Big12 teams. I don't think they should even be in the playoffs. But they're 12-1. And the Nation has Alabama fatigue. So they're in.
December 28th, 2022 at 3:48 AM ^
TCU was one of the four most deserving teams, and that's how the playoff teams are chosen (and should be frankly). Bama was not.
The only argument I heard for Bama was that they were one of the four best teams, and that's what the playoff should pick. I don't agree with that logic (like I said, I think it should be the four most deserving teams--if one of the four best isn't deserving, tough luck, you had your chance), but Bama isn't one of the four best teams anyway. UGA, M and as much as I hate to say it OSU are the three "best" teams, and at #4 I would probably say Clemson with Klubnik at QB (why it took until the ACC Championship Game to make him the starter is beyond me), replacing Tennessee once Hooker got hurt.
December 28th, 2022 at 7:04 AM ^
I think it should be the 4 best teams.
...I just don't think Bama was one of the 4 best teams, so I'd still have the same 4. I don't think most deserving has been the formula in year's past and it shouldn't have been this year.
To me, the two best teams were obvious. And I would've had to look at the numbers closer to see who I thought was #3 (TCU or OSU). But there was a gap between those two and everyone else.
But #3 was never up for discussion, it was always about who was #4. And that was OSU going away. Bama, I don't even know if they're the 5th best team. Maybe now that Hooker is hurt. But it was clear, cut and dry, IMO.
Like I said, the real debate for me in ranking the 4 best teams was TCU and OSU for #3. And that's pushing the obvious rematch stuff aside, I'm strictly talking about finding the third best team in the country.
December 28th, 2022 at 7:25 AM ^
How is deserving or best defined? It’s essentially a four team beauty contest… and, the criteria are not clearly defined.
December 28th, 2022 at 9:00 AM ^
I don’t agree. Why does OSU get an advantage for not playing a game against a conference foe that already beat them once? USC had the same record as OSU and then played another game while OSU sat out and whined about what-ifs. At that point in time OSU’s loss was a home blowout to an arch rival while USC’s was a nail-biter at Utah. USC should not be punished for playing an extra game. A game they had a great chance of winning had their QB not gotten injured. Had OSU played UM again and Stroud got hurt it would have been another blowout loss. But OSU got to sit and watch.
December 28th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
I don’t agree. Why does OSU get an advantage for not playing a game against a conference foe that already beat them once? USC had the same record as OSU and then played another game while OSU sat out and whined about what-ifs.
Exactly. Thats been my thought the entire time. OSU doesnt deserve to be there. It doesnt matter if they had one loss or two. USC was punished for losing their extra game. Thats one thing I hate about this 4 team playoff. Fortunately, its coming to an end after one more year of this senseless crap.
December 28th, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
I don't necessarily disagree with this thinking, but USC was blown out in the championship game against Utah which beat the Trojans earlier at home. If USC had not suffered that type of loss in which its qb was apparently injured in the process, I think the Trojans should and would have been picked.
That same argument could be applied to challenge TCU which lost a nail-biter in its extra game with Kansas State and was voted in despite that because the loss didn't expose their seasonal performance overall.
December 28th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
There's an argument against TCU, sure, but it's much weaker than the argument against OSU/USC. TCU finished with a better record, including something like 6-1 against ranked teams. But the humongous AND is that they also played an extra game, AND put themselves at risk of a loss against a team they already beat. OSU is the only team in the playoff that assumed zero risk during conference championship week. Zero. If you don't even win your division, much less your conference, you shouldn't make it. All the worse when you lose big at home in your final game. OSU is an illegitimate contender. I agree with Seth that if somehow it was an OSU/UM final and OSU pulled it out, UM has the same claim on the national championship as OSU would.
December 28th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
No. OSU always had a better resume than USC. USC's path to the playoff was dependent on getting an extra win against a good opponent AND being a conference champion. USC failed to achieve that task so it did not get rewarded with a playoff invite. The fact that USC was listed as 4 while OSU was 5 was the mistake.
December 28th, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
Better resume because you think that? Please elaborate. Both played ND at home, both won by similar scores. What else makes OSU's Nov. 30th resume better? A destruction at home to their arch rival? A tight game against PSU? I would see them as very similar after the end of the regular season, both at 11-1. USC's one loss was on the road, to a Top 10 team on a converted 2pt try at the end. I fail to see how that is any worse than OSU's resume in the B1G. It could be argued to be the same, in which case they should get the benefit of the doubt to USC for playing an extra game. USC was in fact ranked higher in the playoff standings at that point. They took on all the risk and OSU took none. What a bounty, end the season with a 22-point loss on your home field, and back into the playoffs. Can't think of a time that has happened.
December 28th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
I dont think it should be 4 best. other sport don’t do it that way. Looking at pro sports in particular, and most specifically the NFL…the winner of the NFC south is going to get in the playoffs with a sub .500 record. They will be deserving because of their division championship but are objectively not one of the best teams in the country.
December 28th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^
Exactly. Taking it to the extreme, if all you care about is the four best teams, why bother with the season, just skip it and put UGA and OSU in the playoffs? At the end of the day, you need to earn your spot. I have no sympathy for teams that had their chance and didn't take it, and try to use the excuse that it doesn't matter because they were one of the best teams...
December 28th, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
TCU lost in their conference championship. They should have been out. They didn't come through in a big game. But they're this years Cinderella story. So I guess to some people that means they "deserve" to be in, even though they lost in a significant game. weird
December 28th, 2022 at 8:50 PM ^
No, they "deserve to be in" because they went 12-0 (one of only three teams to do so), and finished with one loss, one of only four that had one loss or went undefeated. The problem with saying they should have been out for losing their conference championship is that there was no one else to take their place. UGA and M were in obviously, you had OSU sitting there at 11-1 (and you can't justify 11-1 OSU over 12-1 TCU, especially since TCU's loss was in a game OSU didn't have to play), and no other team had fewer than two losses. USC, in the driver's seat for the last spot, also lost their championship game (in blowout fashion) and finished 11-2. So I guess you could consider Clemson (or maybe Utah or K-St.), who won their championship games, but it's pretty arbitrary to ding TCU for losing their championship game but not to ding Clemson for losing two games in the regular season (whereas TCU went 12-0), including a blowout loss to ND (Utah and K-St. are even worse, with three regular season losses). I think you're arguing that it should have been Bama over TCU; Bama has the same issue as Clemson--they didn't come through in the regular season, with two losses--plus the additional issue that they didn't even win their division. You can't ding TCU for losing a game Bama wasn't forced to play...
December 28th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
By any metric TCU is better than Bama. 4 best teams does not equal how good Bama could be with a month off to prepare and fix issues that were very obvious in the regular season. TCU won all but one of their one score games, bama was 3-2 in one score games. Bama easily could have lost two others and did not play Georgia, Kentucky or South Carolina from the east, the east cross division games were Tennessee, Lost and Vandy.
Bama played Austin Pea the week before the Iron bowl
TCU played @ Baylor that same week, a week after playing @Texas and before getting Iowa St to close out the regular season. IE the conference stretch run...
Michigan played Illinois who was ranked and lost key players to injury while Bama was playing a tune up game, a get healthy game.... Imagine if Illinois wasn't on Michigan's schedule that week, Blake Corrum is healthy, everyone's good to go.. come on...
Osu had to play Maryland that same week, and we know it's 2nd half of the season Maryland but it's still you better show up and put them away, not fcs austin pea intramural team...
In no way is Alabama one of the 4 best teams this season. So even if they show up and win big in their bowl game vs Kstate it means literally nothing to me. Not a thing..
December 28th, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
I think it should be the 4 best teams.
But if one of the four "best" isn't one of the four most deserving, why do you give the deference to the "better" team instead of the one that is more deserving based on the results on the field? I assume you think OSU should have gotten in last year over Cinci, because they were absolutely a better team than Cinci was (by your logic no G5 team could ever make the CFP, because they'd never be one of the four best teams)?
I get it's somewhat circular, in that you determine the best in part by playing the games. But when one of the four best isn't one of the four most deserving, picking the "better" team feels like grasping for excuses. That team had its chances (like every team), and it didn't take them.
December 28th, 2022 at 5:35 PM ^
One of the 4 most deserving and to SP+ they are the 6th best team. In the current system he not putting TCU in is laughable.
I am starting to agree with Seth that the playoffs should fluctuate. This year Michigan and Georgia were the best teams and had the best record. We should just play each other for the championship.
December 28th, 2022 at 6:55 PM ^
how do you determine "deserving"? it will mean something different to everyone. I think Alabama was deserving as they are very likely one of the four best teams. what else could make a team "deserving"?
December 28th, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^
"Deserving" has nothing to do with being one of the "best" teams (notwithstanding that I, and most others, disagree that Bama was one of the four best teams anyway). Deserving derives from winning the games on your schedule, even more so for winning your division or conference. There's no way to justify calling Bama "deserving" of a playoff spot when they lost two games in the regular season (remember, no two-loss team has yet made the CFP), nearly lost three more, and didn't even win their division, let alone their conference.
December 28th, 2022 at 7:13 AM ^
It seems true that the 3-3-5 is spread-oriented, but there's no reason that a well-constructed (i.e., something other than what RichRod's teams had) version would be hopeless against run-oriented teams.
December 28th, 2022 at 9:02 AM ^
It comes down to the beef. There’s a reason coaches don’t generally put in 3-3-5 against multiple TE’s, and it has to do with the laws of physics which are hard to scheme around.
December 28th, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^
Moten is taking snaps at lb too. My guess to be a spy
December 28th, 2022 at 7:06 AM ^
This would make sense.
He's struggled at safety. With Mullings at full-time RB...it wouldn't surprise me if Michigan made this move long-term.
Funny, the last time Michigan won a National Championship, they moved a starting Safety to Linebacker in the bowl game (Tommy Hendricks played LB and Patmon played S in his place).
December 28th, 2022 at 8:07 AM ^
Yeah, they moved up Hendricks to, more or less, replace Sam Sword. Sam was a great, prototypical, MLB - 245 and as fast as I am (read: slow as dirt). Dude never saw a pass route he tried to defend, but no way in hell was a RB going to get past him! I love that Carr started the Rose Bowl with Sam in the middle of the defense, essentially saying 'we don't need to change to beat you'.
And then changing to beat them... LOL!!!
December 28th, 2022 at 1:07 AM ^
The best team TCU beat was 9-3 Kansas St. But they also lost to Kansas St on a neutral field. TCU's defense is #65 against the run. I'm not really to worried about this game. Alabama would have been a much tougher team to play.
December 28th, 2022 at 7:10 AM ^
I hope our team is worried about this game.
That's a good way to have a disappointing end to your season.
TCU is legit. And with a month if prep (or time off)...anything can happen.
Michigan will have to be locked in and not looking ahead. I don't think they will...there's only one way to make it to that game. You can't lose and back your way in (like OSU did the playoff). Go dominate. Dominate so much the starters can rest late in the game and every player can say he got a snap in the CFP.
December 28th, 2022 at 1:32 AM ^
Solid analysis. All games go through the trenches, but it feels like an especially key element this time around.
December 28th, 2022 at 1:43 AM ^
TCU's defensive front doesn't have a chance. They're going to get manhandled by Zinter and Co.
December 28th, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
I hope you’re right, but not so sure. I have saw nothing of their game against texas, but shutting down Robinson is impressive none the less. I know according to TCU fans we’re “blue bevo” and pray they’re shell shocked as could be afterwords
December 28th, 2022 at 7:40 PM ^
Texas doesn't have an offensive line like Michigan.
December 28th, 2022 at 4:44 AM ^
One of the things I'm most interested to see is how TCU tries to defend us. They essentially have two options: play bend-don't-break like most of our opponents did to try and prevent the big play and hope they can hold us to FGs, or try to aggressively stop the run like OSU and risk giving up the explosive plays.
As much as OSU's gameplan has been mocked, it wasn't necessarily a crazy idea, i.e try and take away the run and make JJ beat them (spoiler alert: he did). Sitting back almost guarantees you're going to get paved, and you better have faith in your red zone defense, especially since JJ's legs will be activated and the play calling will be more creative than just runs up the middle. Though I do wonder if Corum's injury plays a role, i.e. make Edwards power us down the field without a proven backup behind him (in retrospect, perhaps that's what OSU should have done after Corum was injured), though unlike a number of the teams we've played, I'm not sure that TCU has the run defense to even hold up against our backups without stacking the box.
December 28th, 2022 at 5:11 AM ^
Spot on. Apparently Knowles was reading 11 warriors while designing his game plan. I mean Mcarthy couldn’t complete a pass over 10 yds so why not roll the dice. Knowles is seeing JJ spinning deep balls in his nightmares. I mean the great Jeff Brohm out-coached Day and Co with 1/3 the talent.
December 28th, 2022 at 7:26 AM ^
To be fair, Purdue also saw what worked and didn't versus OSU.
No question their gameplan was 10x better.
For me, this game is for Donovan Edwards. The NEXT game is for JJ to play the game of his life.
December 28th, 2022 at 8:05 AM ^
Maybe, but if that’s the best a 2 million dollar coordinator can come up with and a year to plan then color me unimpressed. OSU has 4 times the talent of a Purdue or Illinois yet left no safety help even after we started gashing them. It’s almost like he literally pissed his pants and froze up. If us and OSU are lucky enough to make it to LA, I doubt you’d see that monstrosity of a game plan again.
December 28th, 2022 at 7:24 AM ^
After watching K-State...I'm almost positive they're going to go bend but don't break.
Remember the Nebraska game where Corum had like 150 yards, but didn't have a single run over 12 yards (and still averaged over 5.5 ypc)?
That's what I see...Michigan just running into these pockets.
The problem for TCU is, they're probably banking in 4 yard carries and the occasional no gain. Michigan is better than any team they've played...those 4 yard carries will be 5-5.5 yard carries and that no gain doesn't mean nearly as much anymore...you're still not getting off the field.
TCU has to play bend but don't break, and get that "no gain" on 1st or 2nd down and it has to be in MICHIGAN territory. Then they have to get an incompletion on 3rd and 4 or 5.
But if the ball is in TCU territory, Michigan will just run 1-2 more times and keep the chains moving.
That's oversimplified, but you're banking on a lot of things to go right. You're also assuming Michigan doesn't break one...so you put so much stress on your own defense to be perfect.
Last, if you play bend but don't break...you're dying a slow death and it's advantage Michigan because TCU is keeping its own offense on the sideline. Fewer possessions for Duggan, more time for rest and adjustments for Michigan.
Michigan has proved all year, they'll gladly take a 16 play drive that takes up 7-8 minutes on the clock.
December 28th, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^
And that’d be the dagger for TCU if those drives happen. Sure they could go out and score in 2 minutes, but their D would be completely gassed the second half which plays exactly into Harbaughs evil genius.
December 28th, 2022 at 8:22 AM ^
I agree with everything you said except that TCU will try the bend method. I think they're going to play a little heavier on selling out to stop the run, but not go as far as OSU did. First and second downs we'll see the safeties come up, and they'll be a little more cautious on 3rd and 4th downs. I think they'll try to skirt the difference between what Illinois did and what OSU did.
The problem for them is the interior lines. The Michigan interior is WAY better than anything they've seen this year. Keegan, Olu, and Zinter will deliver Edwards to the LB level - and one step gets him past the safety. I really don't think they'll be any zero-gain stops. And the moment they sell out to get that stop is when the ball will go somewhere else, either by JJ's feet or his arm.
Contrast that with TCU's offense vs Michigan's defense. Again, focus on the interior line - Smith and Jenkins are going to blow up TCU's interior works. So long as Morris holds his edge, and neither Okie nor MacGregor blow the other edge, their RB will hit a LB after 2-3 yards and Duggan will have nowhere to escape. They need big plays - its how they score. And if they don't get them, because they're always behind the sticks, it'll be a long afternoon for them.
TCU will get some big plays - they're good, they have good players, and it's what they do. But how often do some random big plays beat Michigan in the last two years? They will need to drive the field continuously, which is not how they play the game.
December 28th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^
Well done!
December 28th, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^
I think it will be a bit more difficult than that to run up the middle. I think TCU will try to muck up the A and B gaps and have LBs aggressively crash through any open holes, so "delivering" Edwards to the LB could still be in the backfield. It may be that we're simply bigger and stronger with a better scheme and can run up the middle, but I wouldn't be surprised if Edwards has trouble churning out yards that way like we've seen Corum do earlier in the season.
I would expect to see more outside running, pin-and-pulls, counters and maybe some RPOs to take advantage of aggressive LBs and smaller defenders on the corner. The goal may not be to get Edwards 1-on-1 with a LB but rather 1-on-1 with a safety outside the tackle. (Or 1-on-1 with a LB on a wheel route, if the hand is in good enough shape.)
December 28th, 2022 at 9:10 AM ^
You sound way overconfident. Power running UM teams with dominant OL’s left many a Rose Bowl against weaker Stanfords and UCLA’s with our tails between our legs. If being a UM fan since birth (1971) has taught me anything, it would be to not overestimate what our physical size and power are going to do to a multifaceted offense with a mobile QB. I’ve seen that horror movie way too many times.
December 28th, 2022 at 6:27 PM ^
Our run offense has a lot more sophistication than just "power."
December 28th, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
From what I've gathered, TCU has good corners but nothing else jumps out so I bet they'll try to mimic the OSU gameplan somewhat: play to stop the run and hope your CBs can hold up in man to man. I think their corners are more likely to hold up than OSU's, but I also think TCU's Big 12 3-3-5 defense is going to struggle with our run game more than OSU did.
December 28th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
I think the biggest problem with the big 12 is staying true and patient to the running game. Harbaughs frustrated us all to the ends of the earth the last few years, but he’s been right 25 times. I haven’t been right 25 times, total of anything the last 2 years.
December 28th, 2022 at 10:36 AM ^
Thats how important it was for JJ to connect on those deep throws. We all knew the entire season (and last season) that he has an arm. It was just a matter of getting the timing down and being comfortable with his throws. I wish Corum was healthy because JJ being a deep threat opened things up for Edwards even more.
December 28th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
Game comes down to two things IMO
1. Does the coaching staff turn JJ loose and give live reads all game with a chance to win a Natty or do they take the we are better then this team approach we have seen at times. If we turn him loose I like our odds
2. Can we pressure with a disciplined pass rush that keeps a formed pocket and Duggan in it. No escape routes outside for Duggan make him take off up the middle where we can spy him or constrict down with DT's
We do that we win this game IMO.