Iowa Cements (Dubious) SP+ History
Much has been made of Michigan’s place in the final SP+ rankings (1st overall, 1st in defense, 12th in offense). Best defense since 1997, and yes, 1997’s defense was better (according to SP+).
But I want to talk about Iowa: Iowa’s defense, the #1 defense for the vast majority of the season, fell to 3rd in SP+ thanks to three things: 1) the absolute dominance of Michigan and Ohio State, 2) a broken B1G West, and 3) getting hung out to dry by their offense.
Iowa’s offense is ranked…129th. Somehow, there were 4 teams worse on offense than Iowa (Kent St., Akron, Ball St., EMU). This was also due to three factors: 1) roster-decimating injuries, 2) terrible position coaching, and 3) “Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz. [I’d also add in the Kirk “Can’t Be Bothered” Ferentz factor.]
That’s an SP+ Gap of 126 spots, which is historically mismatched. Bill Connelly put out historical SP+ rankings going all the way back the 1880s. Here’s the definitive list of the Most Mismatched Offenses and Defenses in the History of Football. Ever.
Let’s talk takeaways:
- Dude what was in the water in the 1970s???
- We have an almost even distribution between IOWAs and AWOI (Inverse Iowas)
- Having an SP+ Gap historically large was a near-impossible achievement for Iowa this year: in the past, there were more teams in Div1/FBS/whatever it was called, so you COULD match the 20th best defense with the 141st best offense.
- It’s REALLY hard to have a successful season with a mismatched offense and defense – I’ll argue that Iowa’s 10 wins are more impressive than Arizona State’s 10 wins. If you really commit to winning shootouts and have the top offense in the nation, you can win shootouts. Way harder to win rock fights.
Those of you who have been reading Iowatch this year know that I’ve been rooting for this outcome ever since Cade McNamara got injured and it became clear that Iowa’s offense was going to plumb some serious depths this season.
I want to be clear that Iowa’s defense from this season was absolutely amazing and deserves all the accolades and credit that we can give them; their SP+ rating makes them better than every single Moeller defense, all Carr defenses except 1995-1997, and all Harbaugh-era defenses until this year.
[You can decide for yourself whether the abysmal state of B1G West offenses skews Iowa’s defensive ratings. My personal opinion is that it does…but absent any way to account for that statistically I don’t feel that we can discount Iowa’s achievements on defense.]
January 11th, 2024 at 1:24 PM ^
At least we got the best punting season in history...
January 11th, 2024 at 1:25 PM ^
That '73-74 bear market really messed things up.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:27 PM ^
Despite scoring 0 points combined between the B1G title game and their bowl game, Iowa still scored more points than MSU.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:27 PM ^
[You can decide for yourself whether the abysmal state of B1G West offenses skews Iowa’s defensive ratings. My personal opinion is that it does…but absent any way to account for that statistically I don’t feel that we can discount Iowa’s achievements on defense.]
To be sure, Iowa's defense was quite stingy indeed, but I do believe that it is measurably easier to be a stingy defense when many of the offenses you play panic at the mere mention of "red zone" most weeks, not to mention getting zero help from the other side of the ball on your own team.
Even at that, for the schedule and team that they had, Iowa's defense was certainly up to the task much of the way.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^
Dude what was in the water in the 1970s???
Lead
January 11th, 2024 at 1:33 PM ^
I was born in 1972. That year and the next 7 years featured all but one of the biggest gaps ever recorded. Coincidence? Probably…
January 11th, 2024 at 1:34 PM ^
This is astoundingly glorious and horrendous at the same time.
their SP+ rating makes them better than every single Moeller defense, all Carr defenses except 1995-1997, and all Harbaugh-era defenses until this year.
I'm not in agreement with SP+ there. I would take the 2016 UM D easily over 2023 Iowa.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:37 PM ^
Oh yeah, they got shut out in the bowl game so I get to post this one last time. . . until next season.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:42 PM ^
Iowa played 3 top 25 teams. They gave up 31, 26, and 35 points. If they had a top 3 defense I would expect those totals to be lower. We gave up 13 to Washington, 20 to Bama and 24 to OSU.
In the common opponents comparison, we gave up 15 to PSU. There should be no debate. Our defense is significantly better than Iowa’s.
January 11th, 2024 at 2:03 PM ^
I’m in agreement but part of his point is that the Iowa D had to face so many more drives
January 11th, 2024 at 2:19 PM ^
I think our defense is absolutely better but that's not really a knock on Iowa's defense. Their offense put up 0 points in those three games and gave up the ball 10 times combined - it's not shocking and not really that big of an indictment on their defense to give up 26+ points in each of those games. If Iowa is able to move the ball at all, opposing points are probably lower in those games.
January 11th, 2024 at 2:26 PM ^
Tennessee had a pick 6, so the Iowa defense gave up 28 to rocky top, 26 to UM, and 31 to PSU.
Also, as mentioned, their offense - which accrued average per game stats of 7 first downs, 7 punts, 135 yards, two 3rd down conversions, and 3 turnovers - did them no favors at all. When your possessions average like 4 plays, you're giving the other team a ton of opportunities to score.
They had as many punts in 3 games as they had first downs. That's ridiculous.
January 11th, 2024 at 2:27 PM ^
Iowa's defense was on the field for 45 minutes of game time and 100 plays vs. Penn State.
Our defense faced Penn State's offense for 58 plays and 26 minutes.
So yes, our defense is better than Iowa's. But "points scored" is a lazy way of analyzing whether a team is "good" or "better"
January 11th, 2024 at 2:49 PM ^
Lazy, surface level, hawt takes are my specialty.
January 11th, 2024 at 3:18 PM ^
Sith Lords are my speciality
January 11th, 2024 at 3:13 PM ^
You are proving the point the Iowa benefits from from playing in the West, which also makes Iowa's offense look that much WORSE. This could easily be the worst 10-4 team in a long time. Iowa fans should demand a change.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:53 PM ^
I didn't watch their bowl game vs UTenn that they lost 35-0 and I think you can understand if I don't bother to watch for myself, but was that score their D getting legit lit up by the Vols or, like always, eventually giving up the ghost when their offense threw them under the bus?
January 11th, 2024 at 2:07 PM ^
Didn't watch it either, but it seems mostly like the latter. The game was 14-0 well into the second half when UT got a defensive TD, followed by an Iowa fumble on their own 2-yard line, setting up another UT TD.
Tennessee's offensive drives:
Punt, punt, TD, TD, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, TD (2 yards), TD, end of game.
January 11th, 2024 at 2:28 PM ^
Bit of both. Tennessee installed an offense that worked, and Iowa kept giving them extra drives.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:57 PM ^
Somehow, there were 4 teams worse on offense than Iowa (Kent St., Akron, Ball St., EMU).
Wasn't Eastern supposed to be pretty good this year? What happened to them?
January 11th, 2024 at 1:59 PM ^
I was a doubtful of SP+'s Big Ten defense ratings but after OSU held Mizzou in check with zero help from their offense and Michigan held Bama & Washington in check, it sure seems legit. Iowa might be skewed some, but not by a ton.
January 11th, 2024 at 2:31 PM ^
Correct. We saw this during the B1G Championship Game.
Kirk Ferentz’s trophy room is littered with corpses of OCs who thought to themselves “that #1 defense is a mirage; certainly that won’t happen against my team!” and ended up having their QBs throw the ball straight to a Hawkeye in coverage.
26 points against Iowa was a pretty decent showing IMO
January 11th, 2024 at 2:05 PM ^
Gives me a new level of respect for the MAC...
January 11th, 2024 at 2:12 PM ^
So if I understand this right, what you're saying is with a moderately serviceable defense, the 1972 Arizona State team wins a national championship?
January 11th, 2024 at 2:12 PM ^
Offensive does not need to be in quotes in the OP. Iowa's offense was truly offensive.
(and yes, I know we put it in quotes, so /s just for the record)
January 11th, 2024 at 3:02 PM ^
With a gap this large between Offense/Defense units, it begs the question of what Iowa's practices look like. How does a Defense that good ever get a good enough look from such an abysmal Offense? Like, how do they keep their spear sharpened?
January 11th, 2024 at 3:19 PM ^
It would be hilarious if Iowa's scout team was just absurdly good
January 11th, 2024 at 8:18 PM ^
Well, their scout team has to simulate real offenses.
January 12th, 2024 at 9:42 AM ^
It was cyclamates.