Interesting article putting JJ’s numbers in context
I can’t say I’ve ever really followed Jim Sannes, but I came across his tweet that led to his article where he ranks the QBs in this year’s draft.
If anyone is interested in reading the article, here’s the LINK.
In short, his model thinks JJ is the 2nd best QB in this year’s draft. And he provides a couple of interesting stats that give some context to JJ’s seemingly pedestrian numbers relative to the rest of the class.
Here are some interesting comparisons:
McCarthy's Total QBR is more impressive than his AY/A (9.8) partly due to the schedule he faced. More than 63% of his pass attempts came against top-50 defenses by SP+, and the average opposing defensive rank was 38.8. Both were toughest of the six quarterbacks we're looking at today.
That plus efficiency wasn't just because of Michigan's run game and positive game script. McCarthy had a whopping 13.1 AY/A on 3rd and 6 or longer, spots where the defense knew a pass was coming.
That 13.1 AY/A easily led this class and is the third-best mark for any quarterback prospect since 2010, trailing just Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. McCarthy's (relatively) lower AY/A is also excusable given 17.8% of his pass attempts came in these obvious passing situations.
Here's a link to the tweet (hopefully it embeds correctly)
If you’re looking for a cliff notes version of why JJ McCarthy is rising up boards it’s this:
— Nick Miller (@NicholasMMiller) February 13, 2024
When you take the two stats combined it’s even more impressive. Many argue Michigan didn’t trust McCarthy, but this data suggests they leaned on him when it mattered most. https://t.co/5tqwl7pWmR pic.twitter.com/Ok0mjWFsVV
If anyone is interested, his draft ranking for this year's QBs is:
- Jayden Daniels
- JJ McCarthy
- Bo Nix
- Caleb Williams
- Drake Maye
- Michael Penix
February 14th, 2024 at 1:05 PM ^
Like Mahomes, or even Jeter in baseball, it's coming through when most needed. It'd take too much effort to quantify it or add weight to critical plays, and instead it shows itself in reputation.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:09 PM ^
Another stat I would like to see, someone should take that list of QBs and look at the percentage of snaps that the QB played relative to their entire season of offensive snaps. If you don't count injuries, you will see that JJ's offense was so far ahead of opponents most of the season that he simply got to sit out a significant percentage of the season.
Although atypical, that clearly has to be a metric of success, how much did you get to not play because you already won the game. And then, take it another step further, what would your numbers have been if you played full games. Probably Heisman at that point.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:13 PM ^
This feels like strong analysis; add in fact that JJ migh well have more upside considering age/experience. But, the geniuses who run NFL draft rooms are gonna go with Wiliams. I agree he's not #1. But I would not bet he doesn't get drafted #1.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:29 PM ^
To me Bo Nix is the most interesting QB in this class. Some of the throws he made this year were as good or better than Caleb Williams and from afar he appears to have the IT factor and the kind of guy you want leading your offense. Much like JJ in that way. I think those two will end up being the stars of the class.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^
I just hope JJ doesn't get drafted by a shitty franchise.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:58 PM ^
I have not watched all these QBs, but I just feel JJ will turn out to be the best of them. Great arm, mobile, fearless, and above all else a true team player who could have put up gaudy numbers elsewhere but was happy to do his part within the strategy needed for the team to win. Plus, has played a lot less college ball than many of these guys, and has more room to grow. Just let him land with a decent offensive coach and he will take off.
February 14th, 2024 at 4:39 PM ^
JJ was 20 years old for most of the season. And - he turned 21 a few weeks ago. I believe he will be the youngest QB entering the draft.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:58 PM ^
Any team that needs a QB should be thrilled to get a chance to draft JJ just from a culture standpoint. That kid's head is always in the right place, he's cool and composed all the time; doesn't get rattled no matter what is happening. From a leadership standpoint it doesn't get any better than JJ. He's like Hutchinson but as a QB. I'd love for the Pats to take him 3rd overall!
February 14th, 2024 at 2:42 PM ^
I honestly think JJ is the best QB prospect and the fact that whatever team selects him won't have to use a top 5 or top 10 pick, makes him incredibly appealing to an NFL team I would think.
February 14th, 2024 at 3:41 PM ^
The Michigan offense controlled the ball with the run, and then leaned on JJ when they needed a play.
He always delivered in the clutch.
Michigan didn't control the ball with the run because they couldn't trust JJ, they control the ball with the run because they could trust JJ.
It was a perfect combination that frustrated the hell out of opponents. They got ground down most of the game but finally got a key stop or two, and then JJ blew it all up with a laser pass or with his legs.
Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama, Washington were all on the JJ victim list.
He is really good.
February 14th, 2024 at 3:58 PM ^
JJ would be an undisputed top QB if he eliminated the complete blunders he occassionally makes. Like the almost INT to start the Bama game, 4 INTs vs Bowling Green, pick sixes vs TCU, some dangerous cross body throws, etc.
Those few headscratchers are the main knocks on him IMO
February 14th, 2024 at 4:42 PM ^
I think JJ learns - and applies those lessons. He's still young.
My question is - outside of the Bowling Green game - have you seen him "repeat" an error - or INT? Does he make the same mistake twice - or - learn from the mistake? I think he learns from his mistakes.
February 14th, 2024 at 4:46 PM ^
It's hard to get real feel for his skill set in the NFL based on his usage.
The one consistent was him notching it up against higher competition when it mattered.
Had great completion rates to secure big wins, and played game manager within the UM scheme, as he wasn't needed to do it all.
The combine will clear things up, most likely bumping him up the QB draft order.
February 14th, 2024 at 4:59 PM ^
From an analytics nerd lens Sannes is definitely a sharp guy.
February 14th, 2024 at 5:57 PM ^
I’m not convinced that Williams is as good as the talking heads say he is. Riley has a system that tends to get his qbs lots of numbers in the stats but none of them have seemed to be all that ready for the nfl. Williams does have better arm strength and an uncanny ability to make something out of nothing though, so I’ll give him that.
Daniels from LSU played with two legitimate first round wrs. He’s got long ball touch and some legs, but I didn’t see him ever gave to go three or four reads in before throwing and few of his passes were tight nfl window throws.
JJ just didn’t have the volume the other qbs did, but the results should speak for themselves. IMO he’s a top ten pick (possibly top five) in the draft. And depending on where he goes he could have a much better start to a career than the others.
February 14th, 2024 at 6:57 PM ^
Late to the party and haven’t read any posts, but I’m guessing that some here are wishing he would fall to a better team, but the silver lining IMHO is that he will get on the field sooner when he gets drafted by a lesser team looking for a starter in the near future.
February 14th, 2024 at 9:55 PM ^
Greatest Michigan quarterback of all time! Or GMQOAT for short
February 14th, 2024 at 10:48 PM ^
I'd pick JJ first.
It is not something I noticed as much in games, but I noticed it on a season long highlight real. It was fascinating the number of times JJ threw or ran for a first down in a close game in the third quarter, then by the end of the game, Michigan was winning comfortably. There were so many time he came through in the clutch that you can't measure on a chart.