How remarkable is Michigan's assist percentage?
So far in the tournament, we have made assists on a whopping 72% of our field goals:
19/26 against TX Southern
22/28 against LSU
19/29 against FSU
60 assists on 83 field goals total.
I love that percentage--it means that we are moving the ball in a way that is not only effective but is also a lot of fun to watch. For the season as a whole our assist percentage is "only" in the 50s (probably a function of Hunter Dickinson posting up and dribbling more than he has in the tournament).
72% seems really remarkable to me. I don't have access to advanced stats sites but I thought maybe someone here did and could report back on how remarkable this is. I'm also curious what the record is. I can't imagine a team getting a much higher percentage than 72, if at all.
(Of course, if Coach Howard decides that we need to stop passing so much and we win the championship without any assists in the last three games, I'm on board with that too!)
I am not sure about total percentage of assists to FGs, but Iowa lead NCAA w/ 19.2 assists per game. Michigan was 28th with 16 per game.
Did some more digging, and 72% is very good. For the regular season..
Gonzaga was 54.7% ; Iowa 64.4% ; Michigan 57.4%
We definitely aren't the best for assist percentage for the season as a whole (Iowa averaged 29.8 FGs per game, so 64% assists. We averaged 27.8 per game, so 58%).
Hmm, where have I seen those stats before your post?
At halftime, Oregon State has a 85.7% assist percentage against Houston!!!!
They're also shooting 35% and getting killed.
It certainly stands out against the stagnant offenses we've played the last two rounds. LSU had seemingly no half-court sets. FSU didn't look much better. Meanwhile, our guys are moving off the ball with a purpose and creating great looks for one another. It's awesome to watch.
Norman Dale would be proud
How many passes?
One word of warning when it comes to % of assists.....it can be misleading and reward bad offenses too. MSU, for example, actually did pretty well with "assist rate" this year....because the only way they could actually score is if someone set up an easy basket. No one was creating their own shot and too many shots didn't fall.
So while the stat is great and it certainly passes the eye test in these Michigan games, just know that like most advanced stats you need some context toward volume as well. You'll see sometimes people, even here at MGoBlog, cite a stat that says a player or team is in the 90th percentile for one stat or another....but don't qualify that with the fact that their volume of use is very low.
That's a great point. Since we're looking just at the (single-elim) tournament, maybe limiting it to teams who play a certain minimum number of games would filter out the misleadingly high ones.
Was just about this, 72% assist rate is well in the "danger zone" of being too high for an offense. It looks and sounds great to say when a team is winning but it really shows a weakness and a lack of a true bucket getter.
No, that’s silly. A high assist rate is great - it means you’re playing team basketball. Now, it might be misleading if you don’t have many total baskets. But it’s never a bad thing.
When you need a bucket, that’s when you especially want to run good offense, not play heroball.
Re: MSU, it’s been said that the scorer at Breslin is unusually generous at crediting assists, so they might be getting some freebies.
Gonzaga has one of the best offenses in the history of Kenpom and their assist rate is in the low 50s. You need a guy who can get a late clock bucket, or breakdown the defense and occasionally finish, or get a basket to stop a run. Team basketball is great and you win by playing as a team, but you do need individual playmakers. Those individual playmakers are the difference between a great team (Michigan) and a national champion (Gonzaga). I'm not trying to take away from what Michigan has done.
Gonzaga's numbers are similar to ours. I don't have good totals for the regular season, just for conference play, but looking at that...in conference play, we had 239 assists on 456 FGs (52%). Gonzaga was 257 for 497 in conference play (52%).
Both we and Gonzaga are a lot higher in the tournament than we'd been. In the tournament, Gonzaga is at 65%, not that far off our 72%.
Our team is in the Elite 8 with an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. We consistently executed in the half-court in late clock situations by creating favorable match-ups and dribble drives that led to wide open looks. As far as individual playmakers, Wagner has hit clutch shots in each of the last two games.
Gonzaga blows everyone out so it’s hard to compare them with other teams. How many times this season have they been in “need a basket” territory?
If you’re up 30 points it really doesn’t matter whether you make the extra pass or not. For them to have an assist rate in the 50s despite the blowouts is very impressive, actually. If their games were closer it’d probably be higher.
So after watching the UCLA game and how our offense came apart and UCLA won because they had a guy who could get buckets do we want to revisit this discussion?
I wouldn’t say that no one at MSU could create for himself. Henry was pretty good in isolation and Watts could create space for those 19-footers he loves.
Their bigger problem was that they just didn’t make many shots, period.
Uber remarkable. Ask Franz.
For *this* tournament, the teams in the Elite Eight are as follows:
Gonzaga: 20.7 assists per game
Michigan: 20.0
USC: 17.7
Baylor: 13.3
Oregon State: 13.3
Houston: 12.7
UCLA: 12.5
Arkansas: 11.3
Gonzaga: 32.0 FGs per game
USC: 30.7
UCLA: 28.8
Arkansas: 28.0
Michigan: 27.7
Baylor: 27.3
Houston: 24.7
Oregon State: 23.0
Which translates to:
Michigan: 72.3%
Gonzaga: 64.6%
USC: 58.0%
Oregon State: 57.6%
Houston: 51.4%
Baylor: 48.8%
UCLA: 43.5%
Arkansas: 40.5%
My girlfriend saw 5 min of the UM-FSU game. She has no knowledge of BB (to the point that I was explaining 1 hoop = 2 points), but she noted that Michigan's offense was more fun to watch b/c "they share the ball in surprising ways". I think that should be a new part of KenPom's formula.
Sometimes the eye test works exceptionally well. It also sounds like you have a terrific girlfriend.
Team ball......
Offensive balance
Lots of weapons
GO BLUE