How does what is happening in NYC factor into your thinking about Covid-19
We’ve had a post that focused on why Sweden shows that the US took the wrong path and over reacted to Covid-19. I think that the facts on the ground tell the other side of the story.
For me, what is happening in New York City affirms the decision for large scale stay at home orders. But clearly, most of the US is not seeing the same level of impact. How does what is happening in NYC factor into the thinking of others on the board? Did social distancing avert widespread deaths similar to New York City across much if the country or do you think shutdowns were justified in NYC and maybe a few other places, but not for so much of the US? Or do you think that even in NYC, the costs of the stay at home order to the economy are to great to justify the stay at home orders? Do you think that people are over reacting to what is happening in NYC either because it is not all that bad or because NYC is a unique situation and it is unlikely other parts of the US could be hit as badly? If you think orders should have been issued more judiciously, how would you have set criteria absent more test data?
I have also provided some information about what is happening in New York City.
The current population is about 8.3 million. As of Sunday afternoon there were about 6700 deaths, including 531 in the last 24 hour reporting period.
To provide a bit of context for those numbers, NYC averages about 150 deaths a day. Last Tuesday NYC reported over 800 deaths due to Covid-19, more than 5 times the average number of deaths. At the apex of the Spanish Flu Epidemic of 1918, NYC was seeing about 400 to 500 deaths per day. The population was about 5.6 million, adjusted to today’s population that would be about 600 to 750 people per day. In a typical flu season, NYC has about 2000 city residents die (so in the last 30 days there have been 3 times as many Covid-19 deaths in NYC as there are in an entire typical flu season).
New York City has seen about 800 deaths from Covid-19 per million residents so far and the number continues to climb. This compares to Italy which has about 329 deaths per million and Spain which has has 368. Statewide New York has 478 per million. As a whole the US has 67 per million. Eight States, including New York and Michigan (149 per million) are above the national average. On the opposite end of the spectrum in the US, there are 9 States with less than 10 deaths per million.
There are many reasons to explain why New York City was hit so badly. It has the highest population density of any large US city at about 27,000 people per square mile. San Fransisco is second at about 17,200 per square mile. It has the most use of public transit with over 56% of commuters using mass transit. Washington DC is second at about 37%. JFK airport has the most international flights at over 15,000. LAX is second at about 11,000. Mew York did not act as quickly as some other places did. San Fransisco had a stay at home order on March 16. New York did not issue one until almost a week later (March 22).
While these facts and figures may explain why NYC got so bad so fast, I personally don’t think we have any reason to expect that other areas of the country aren’t also susceptible to significant Covid-2019 outbreaks, even though it may have taken more time for it to spread. It would have been great if we’d had more information to be more targeted in our approach, but it is not clear to me how we could have done that. What say other mgobloggers?
The vast majority of SD cases are in Sioux Falls. Half the cases are at 1 pork processing plant. The majority of the state has nothing. I live in Rapid City. Best friends wife is a pediatric nurse. She says the hospital is a ghost town. No patients to be seen in almost every department. Peds usually has 10+ patients. Currently they have 1.
Anyway, my point remains that where you choose to live is give and take. I dont have a major airport or professional sports within 4 hours. Things take a long time to get here. But I dont want to share a city with millions of people. This is just 1 reason why.
April 13th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
5G compromising immune systems coupled with the Fluzone High-Dose flu vaccine formulated for people over the age of 65. That’s why you are seeing the older people die and the highly populated cities with 5G. They already got that flu vaccine and their immune systems have been compromised by it. The poison is the 5G not a virus.
April 13th, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^
Wow, this thread seemed pretty rational until you chimed in. Maybe just missing a /s tag?
April 13th, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
Small Chloroquine Study Halted Over Risk of Fatal Heart Complications
A research trial of coronavirus patients in Brazil ended after patients taking a higher dose of chloroquine, one of the drugs President Trump has promoted, developed irregular heart rates.
To be fair, that is a different, more powerful drug.
April 13th, 2020 at 12:20 PM ^
All I think about with the COVID situation in NY, aside from hoping my family and friends living in the area stay healthy, is that I'm thankful I don't still live there.
I'm in Atlanta now, and while having the busiest airport in the world 30 minutes down I-85 doesn't exactly help me sleep at night in terms of thinking how this virus can spread, I definitely feel safer here than I would in NY.
April 13th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
This has been one of my go-to websites for tracking progress since I live in LA:
https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-…
OP mentioned the airports. I work in El Segundo, home of LAX, so that number is particularly relevant to me. Counter-intuitively, El Segundo has only recorded 11 cases so far. Maybe that's because not many people actually live in El Segundo. It's also a testament to LA's spread out culture. People arrive at LAX, get in a cab or whatever and go 15-60 miles to get home. In NY, they hop on the subway and spread the virus right away.
April 13th, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
Interesting stat from the Detnews today. Total deaths in Michigan in March (5929) down 3500 from the average number. (8559) How does this square with the supposed dangerousness (new word, I know) of this virus? You will reply with social distancing, etc. Ok but still if the virus were that deadly (and it was for sure present in Michigan in early March) then death rates around the country should be skyrocketing.
April 13th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
Well no, actually when a large proportion of the population is staying at home nearly all the time, the death rate won't be high - which is the point of social distancing. It works.
If I stay at home all day today, not only will I almost certainly not contract the coronavirus, I am unlikely to contract any other infectious disease. I also won't die in a car accident, plane crash, train crash or most other accidents. I'm less likely to be murdered. I'm probably less likely to have a heart attack given that a major source of stress (other people) is removed. I reduce my chances of nearly every single cause of death. The main exceptions would be domestic violence, suicide and - maybe - death by poisoning (should there be a gas leak, etc). Overall it's a big net gain in the death rate, which is why medical professionals are overwhelmingly in favor of it right now.
The downside is that society isn't designed to function like this for more than brief periods.
Overall it's a big net gain in the death rate, which is why medical professionals are overwhelmingly in favor of it right now.
For now, but that is ending soon. The vast vast majority of income for medical professionals and hospitals come from not responding to those things. Their businesses will soon see layoffs and close. Around that time, they will try to get people back for regular health care. Unfortunately, many people will still be too frightened from reading the local news.
Oh well. No harm in scaring people with anecdotes and worst-case scenarios to get them to stay home, right?
Be smart, not afraid.
Hence my final sentence. Our economic system isn't designed to have people stay home indefinitely, which is why the lockdowns have to end at some point.
But if you could control for economic factors - or gave people universal basic income - the net gain would continue indefinitely.
OTOH, if we were to let this virus circulate freely, with zero restrictions on movement, then yes, our overall death rate for March/April would be elevated.
True. I was just trying to make a point about the medical community needing this to end soon.
Well, for one thing. Deaths lag new cases. New daily cases have just now peaked or within the last week in Michigan. There will be thousands of deaths in Michigan in April. There are already over 1000 in two weeks.
Your March comparison is worthless.
April 13th, 2020 at 12:48 PM ^
Obviously, every COVID death has been tragic - and it wasn't good to see the NYC hospitals reaching the point of near-overload.
That said, I do see some a big potential "positive" as regards our future, based on what has happened in NYC:
(1) 1 out of every 96 New York Staters has a confirmed positive. That's New York State - for the NYC Tri-state region itself, it's closer to 1 out of every 75. 1.33% of the population.
(2) But that's confirmed positive --- we've talked a lot here about the actual vs. confirmed ratio, and most people think that range is somewhere from 5x-30x.
(3) Which would mean ~6.67% to even ~ 40% of NYC Tri-State residents have been infected, and should have some degree of immunity.
(4) Which should theoretically mean any 2nd wave, upon re-opening, could be dampened simply because of the amount of people infected.
-----
Now - nobody else in America has numbers like NYC. But even in SE Michigan, take Wayne, Oakland and Macomb and we're at 1 confirmed infection per 200 people. Michigan, of course, doesn't have the testing numbers per capita that NYC does either. So even SE Michigan could have some not insignificant immunity levels already built out.
April 13th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
People need to stop believing everything that the media is telling us and taking it as truth. Do your research.
Whereas we should totally believe what a random internet weirdo is telling us, right?
Do your research is what I'm saying. Don't just believe what they spoon-feed to us. If you are diligent and do your research, you will find the truth. Problem is, people are too lazy and it's easier to follow the masses.
I do my research and have found 'the media' is almost always accurate.
I mean actual professional media, not like 'The Five' or let's get 3 people with strong opinions arguing about something.
Your point is?
There is a political agenda being pushed and the COVID-19 is the vehicle being used.
You are pushing an agenda, that's true.
We'll see about that.
What is the agenda? You haven't made a coherent point. Saying do research is not a point and I'm skeptical you have done any yourself other than peruse /r/thedonald or the drudge report.
I've been tracking and plotting the Michigan numbers daily for a month along with some other areas using public data available on github.
1. Just wondering about this:
To provide a bit of context for those numbers, NYC averages about 150 deaths a day. Last Tuesday NYC reported over 800 deaths due to Covid-19, more than 5 times the average number of deaths.
I think you are combining NYC numbers with state numbers. I also believe that during flu season NYC has over 200 deaths a day. I think during COVID it was over 400. Twice as much, but not 5 times.
2. Social distancing works. It keeps the number of deaths down.
3. Even if COVID ends up having a CFR of .3% or so (as we are seeing places where they are doing serology tests), that increase on a health system already near limit with flu season causes the stress we saw.
4. The rapid media attention caused more people to come in for testing than normally would have bothered. It also increased the viral load at the hospitals. In other words, it concentrated the people coming to the hospitals and led to higher levels of contagion in the hospital. This probably put health care workers in greater danger than they would have faced otherwise.
5. The virus is certainly much wider spread in the city. It is very dense and so it probably spread more quickly than in other less dense areas. In other words, other parts of the country will have a naturally much flatter curve.
6. Cuomo said today that COVID has NOT overwhelemed their health care system.
7. NYC has handled this better than Milan area (Italy).
8. Cuomo also announced starting a plan to reopen businesses.
9. Michigan has a lower density of people, has just increased its measures (with diminishing returns and just hurting businesses without reasons) and its hospitals are not being overwhelmed and no apparent plans as to how to re-open society other than from the GOP.
10. The end of flu season, keeping social distancing and allowing for the people who are overly afraid of the virus will be enough to keep the curve flat enough in areas with lower population density.
I heard Cuomo's press conference today - I tend to hear it 2-3 times a week, depending on what I'm doing at 11:30 ET.
He was good today, and it was also different. You can sense he's more relaxed: still on top of things as regards hospital equipment and resources, but he wasn't stressed either. There's a sense they're moving off the peak. Things got bad but the hospital system was not overwhelmed, and NYC was a lot better than Italy.
We'll have to hold tight this week, to make sure the #s truly do fall.
But the conversation about "what's next?" likely begins in earnest next week. Even today, Cuomo was taking the first baby steps to that "what's next?" question.
Spain is starting to open up now so keep an eye on their numbers which have been falling significantly as of late.....Italy will start soon but their numbers are not falling nearly as much, which seems strange. They have some of the strongest rules in place for social distancing, they should be further ahead than most but aren't.
Yep - Austria, Norway, Denmark and Czechia (Czech Republic) too - lifting some rules this week.
We'll see what happens.
How about Iran? Numbers falling. Barely any stay at home. Late and partially enforced. It was beginning to be lifted today.
Also, look at Denmark, they are starting schools back up.
Sweden may have peaked, but need a few more days to confirm. Other countries will likely end up with similar fatalities over a longer period of time.
Texas is going to open up a bit after a very very mild lockdown. Other states like Florida, Mississippi have barely had anything in place. They are expected to "blow up" with cases, but that has been said for weeks. It may happen. It may not.
I am so glad our country didn't go all full on China and lock us all up with authority. Crazy people were hoping for martial law or that he would quarantine NYC area. WTF? Fear of the unknown is strong!! Hate on Trump all you want (I do for a few reasons), but at least he didn't make the power grab for martial law that other people would have done.
You trust Iran's numbers? I wouldn't.
First, there are no numbers that can be "trusted." I don't see why Iran is much different from anyone else. They have a big incentive to make it look bad while trying to get IMF funding or sanctions lifted to help. They also have motivation to cover it up, so it doesn't look so bad. Anyway, those factors are at play in every country and no reason to think Iran is some crazy outlier.
We see disputes about NYC numbers (in this thread). Some think Italy's numbers are not right. Nobody believes China. I guess I put Iran somewhere between China and NYC.
BTW - Our early actions and understanding of this virus was based mostly on China numbers. Let that sink in. Our doomsday models were based off bad numbers.
NYC and Italy are almost certainly worse as well, based on how deaths are counted. NYC I believe is soon correcting or has corrected for that.
The models are based more of Italy than China or Iran I'm sure due to having a more transparent count. They use all the data they think is accurate, and of course adjust for possible inaccuracies too.
1. The 800 number was for NYC last Tuesday. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html. Also NYC is also having a huge increase in deaths from home, none of which are included in the official count, so the 800 is probably an underestimate. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829506542/after-deaths-at-home-in-nyc-officials-plan-to-count-many-as-covid-19. The 150 is an average number, I would not be surprised if it was higher during peak season. Still 800 is definitely way more than 2 times 200.
2. We agree
3. More and more I question the fixation with the CFR. If I’m getting 2 to 5 as many times the deaths of peak flu season, then the problem seems to be to be way worse. CFR is only one part if the equation. How many people get it is also part of the equation.
4. Just as media attention may have driven more people to the hospital, fear of the hospital may have kept many people away (maybe that is why so many deaths at home?). Not sure how one knows how this works out in balance.
5. Flat enough that social distancing is not needed elsewhere?
6. Cuomo on April 3 - “Cuomo said Friday he will sign an order to redistribute hundreds of ventilators to hospitals overwhelmed with coronavirus patients amid a surge in outbreak-related deaths and hospitalizations.” As I’ve seen elsewhere, at some point folks will do studies to see if the number of cases at New York City Hospitals contributed to an increased mortality rate. I suspect the answer will be yes, but I could be wrong.
7. i don’t know enough to judge, could be.
8. Great
9. I agree with questioning the increased measures. Don’t live in Michigan so can’t comment on the politics There have certainly been some places where local GOP officials have been leaders and others where they haven’t Same can be said of democrats. Not sure what your point is?
10. By people who are overly afraid of the virus do you mean old people and those with other health factors that raise their risk? And what do you mean by social distancing measures, there is a pretty wide spectrum. I suspect we’ll couple that with testing and adjust social distancing measures as necessary and appropriate.
1. Looking at NYC's numbers looks different. They have 475 that day. Big difference.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#download
Interestingly, since the demographics looks similar to regular deaths (old and heart disease, etc.) and there may be some under reporting going on (or just inaccuracy) these ratios can change. Amazing we can't even get a good idea how different it normally will be from other years.
3. CFR or IFR is very important for people to determine the risk to themselves. We don't know how many people will get it. The cruise ship numbers and hard hit areas seem to indicate it tops out much lower than 50%. Its possible some people are not as susceptible (kids). On the other hand, it could be a herd immunity thing with over 60%. We don't know. We also don't know that for the flu. We don't get too many lab confirmed cases for that, so we don't know how widespread it is in the community. Therefore, we look at the IFR or CFR to assess the risk.
4. Good point. There is no doubt it increased the viral load though. Many people got tested places other than the hospital. The lines were crazy here at urgent care centers. People wanted to know. Doctors told me many people were really concerned they had "it."
5. It looks that way. How long can you lock people up to ensure it is flat enough in areas that are much less dense?
6. All indications are that NY has had great results. No switching people off vents as in Italy. No mass hysteria. Nowhere near the increased fatality rate as Italy (that could be an age thing though).
9. It just has to make sense. Our governor's orders don't make much sense and she refuses to allow the law makers to draft them. There is no longer a need for a quick response. The government was not set up for a very slow moving issue to give the executive the power to avoid the congress. I have lots of experience in the area of government law. This is not how it should work. (Same thing with Florida and Texas). This is looking less dangerous the more we slowly learn. If a somewhat severe disease that plays out over a series of months justifies unilateral and lasting action, we are all in for a world of hurt if our party is not in power. The precedent is very troubling (unless this was the plague or something, which it is not).
10. By fear, I mean healthy younger people with a greater chance of dying in a car accident or falling from a ladder. The perceived risk is through the roof. Imagine watching a shark attack each week on TV for 52 weeks. Despite the fact they are very rare, you would be afraid to go in the water. That is what we are seeing in the news right now (and we have no sports or other things competing for our attention). It really really skews your assessment of risk. If you are under 65 and not obese, your chance of hospitalization is very very low (even without knowing how many people even have it - CFR or IFR). If I was over 65 or obese, I would probably be rightfully more concerned (they make up the vast majority of the slim portion that get hospitalized), but that might just lead me to wear a mask. I am all for sensible social distancing. Gloves have proven to be pointless compared to hand washing. I am fine with reducing crowds. Maybe get a N95 mask if you are high risk. I think I would want to see numbers keep going down before we have bigger gatherings (over 250). As for testing, there is no way to test all the Americans who might need it each day. I think you save tests for health care workers or other people dealing with the vulnerable. Johnny doesn't need a test at school, but maybe he gets one before coming in to see grandma in the nursing home.
The NYC thing is weird. I found multiple news sources that cited the 800 number for NYC (including the one I linked, but I would agree that your number is clearly from a more reputable source.
Hard to know for sure and it's impossible to prove a counterfactual but my gut is the shelter in place helped but not as much as people think. There are 1,500 MTA workers who tested positive and the average daily rider count for the NYC subway is 4,300,000. If this thing is as contagious as they make it sound, NYC should have massively higher hospitalizations and deaths.
I think quarantining the sick and elderly is the way I would play it if I were governor while ramping up testing, including anitbody tests, and get as much PPE as you can.
I'd be interested to get a doctor's opinion on what Roche is doing with Actemra. They produce $2B+ of it per year for rheumatoid arthritis, it is designed to counteract cytokine release syndrome which is what's killing people who get Covid 19, and Roche is going through a phase 2/3 trial on it with the FDA over the next two months. Why? If it works can't they just provide it on an emergency basis? Are they doing the trial just to avoid having to give it away for free on an emergency basis? If so, that's just mind blowing. And the Chinese have already tested it, they say it works, and they're using it.
Seriously, if you want to blow your mind, google "Actemra Covid 19." It's basically a straightforward miracle cure for cytokine release syndrome and Roche is taking it's sweet time with it.
In Feb. as the pandemic hit...the Liberal Politicians in NYC were on TV encouraging people to go out to parks and restaurants. Look it up...its insanely true. DiBlasio was tweeting telling people to go out to parks and movies.
This was all going on...as we knew that the CCP Virus was coming.
NYC residents should blame their elected local politicians for not being ready for this. It is on them.
Who else who wasn’t liberal was telling us it was no big deal? Look it up. It’s insanely true.
I mean sure, you get up everyday, but what kind of existence is this? It’s going to be a miserable 18 months to 2 years. This is basically a nationwide 2 year house arrest.