HighBeta

August 2nd, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^

Nice to hear that you've got kids in A2. Had one there last decade and I was there when phones had rotary dials. Great town, fabulous school. Yep! I travel to games rarely but thanks for the invitation! But. There are a few folks (cowpokes, hillbillies, Crazy Ivans, etc.) that I am sure I would really like to sit with before, during, and after a game! Good people on here.

Perspective? There is no way to cap someone's NIL earnings at any municipal, state or Fed level. You may see a silly attempt to tax the proceeds differently, but that would fail its first legal challenge. And, the same applies to deals with minors - not "cap able".  Yes, a parent or guardian would be involved but still can't cap someone's earnings from their "person".

And, for other readers, this is completely unrelated to a "salary cap" because it is a) not salary, nor b) paid in the context of a Collective Team organized under a CBA with a student/players union.

What can be done at a legislative level? State level? Too many states to coordinate unless/until there is an informal ad hoc committee that forms to elevate a set of recommendations that they take to various state legislatures encouraging uniformity. The NCAA could have done this but they have become a shell of what they could and should have been.

Federal level - I can see someone trying to do this but I suspect that various states would challenge the law, it winding up being flip-flopped up the appeals process with the SC declining to hear the case as it's a "business matter better left to the states".

In other words, this is going to be settled by a gain/loss capitalist process of finding a valuation that works for both the donor and the recipient. Going to be fascinating to watch unfold. Prediction: valuations will inflate to stupid levels, pop, then stabilize back down to something more "normalized".

I can see a kid making six figures to play ball at the college level - a group of retail level businesses pooling/throwing in a few bucks each, per annum, to make an appearance at a holiday bash, give a speech, etc. to sell some things. But 7 figures to an unproven kid? I think (paraphrasing Greenspan) that is "irrational exuberance". 

Sum: no way to cap it, need a bottom up consensus at the conference level. Other than that, the resolution is opaque to me, sorry.

Amazinblu

August 2nd, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^

Beta, thanks for your perspective, and the detail you shared.  I “take issue”, candidly, with nothing you shared.

The question going through my mind is - how long will normalization take?   My guess, unfortunately, is “a while”.  There will be certain Collectives that will have a very strong flow of NIL monies.  My guess - oil money will fuel this in certain geographies.

Having our children in A2 is fantastic, I must admit.  A year and a half ago, I wasn’t sure where they would be.  They’ve adjusted well - are studying and working hard, and looking forward to the coming year.   And, a brief update - dorm rooms don’t have phones anymore.  I’m also familiar with the “basic rotary” that was in my dorm many years ago.

Once we’re closer to the tailgates, I’ll share details.

Go Blue!

HighBeta

August 2nd, 2022 at 7:32 PM ^

Disclaimer: just one man's opinion follows:

I think that there is a huge amount of accumulated, free capital in the system right now. Fortunes have been made in the past decade due to various factors - with a belief that there's more free capital to come. That last part is being challenged with the current economic contraction we've just started.

Money will stop flowing as a result. This is going to hurt like 2007-2012. Some of the "free capital" is going to be removed from the system by real economic contraction and interest rate hikes.

Also, oil money is going to be adversely impacted as consumers drive fewer miles, switch back to sedans from SUVs, switch to EVs, etc. My friends in Houston have seen boom/bust/boom/bust, frack, no frack, more times than they can count. 

I give it 24-30 months or, probably, fewer to settle down. I've been wrong before but after seeing expansion/contraction cycles several times (they all look alike from 10,000 feet), I'm thinking that I'm probably not wrong.

Stay in Touch. Thanks. Be Well.

Go Blue!

HighBeta

August 2nd, 2022 at 8:43 PM ^

Last bit. Enjoy your kids being in A2. In hindsight, I got more pleasure being there to watch my son grow from Frosh to Senior than I did when I attended. It's wonderful.

Periodically, just stop and watch/listen to their excitement being there. You will remember those moments --- forever. 👍