Ghost of Fritz…

November 24th, 2017 at 10:44 PM ^

Weird thing is if Maizen would dial back the acidity about 30% a lot of his arguments would be valid.

Takes plausible arguments to the extreme, thereby weakening them.

It is true that recruiting this cycle is not as impressive as in '16 an '17.

But it is also true that only 7 schools have a higher average star rating (per 247 composite). 

 

 

BoFlex

November 24th, 2017 at 10:51 PM ^

Well, it is also true that 2 of those 7 are within the conference, and the one that matters the most is nearly a full 6 point greater on average rating with a bigger class.

If Ohio State's average class rating were a recruit, it'd be the #107 overall recruit on 247Composite. Michigan's would be #328. That's not a small gap.

Ghost of Fritz…

November 24th, 2017 at 11:08 PM ^

and hopefully this ends up being JH's lowest rated class.

Still think that if JH can have top 10 classes most years, the key to beating OSU will be to get and develop QB's that are excellent. 

Top ten classes most years plus superior QB play is the way to match OSU.

Squash34

November 24th, 2017 at 11:28 PM ^

I think he needs to turn it down much more to make his arguments valid. His argument is essentially that this class is bad because the bottom of it is garbage. That's horrible to say about high school kids and having a half dozen or so 3 stars is not what separates these classes anyways. Both of the last two classes have middling 3 stars. Where those classes are different than this one is the top of the class has more star power. If it were not for the top half of the last two classes having 3 five stars and a bunch of high 4 stars maizen would have bitched about getting a bunch of garbage 3 stars that have played extremely well thus year. Guys like Hudson and McKeon have looked like future early round draft picks and we're in the range he us calling garbage. That is only talking about the starters that were 3 stars in the 16 class. There are other guys in that class that look very impressive in a smaller sample size despite being a middling 3 star. Metellus gets hated on alot around here but I think he has played pretty good these year with the occasional bad coverage. Eubank, uche, and spanellis look like they will be very good at Michigan. You could add a few 3stars from 16 to the lust too, I just don't want to spend more time on it. The point is, the staff has show the ability to find under the radar guy while at Stanford and here.

Ghost of Fritz…

November 24th, 2017 at 11:43 PM ^

up being correct.  But it is probably still too early to know one way or the other.  We have to wait and see how some of 3 star guys from '16 and '17 develop. 

It is true that there are some good returnes on some, at least so far.  Metellus, for example, is pretty good.  But he still needs to take it to an even higher level next year before we can say he was way underrated.

And how do we know anything about Spanellis?  Way to early to say that the staff got a guy that was underrated.  A small bit of playing time this year does not reveal much on Spanellis.

Hudson has been impressive.  Still want to see him have the discipline on every down tomorrow to not get too far upfield and leave a running lane for Barrett. 

ANyway, I hope you are correct, becasue the ability to find 3 stars that in fact are underrated is going to be a key to matching OSU. 

 

 

Squash34

November 25th, 2017 at 12:24 AM ^

There is alot of wiggle room when you talk about being really underrated. Moreover , it is only their second year, so we are still a ways away from saying anyone was over or underrated in that class. However, metellus in the 730's in the composite rankings. So it feels like Metellus has already out preformed his ranking because guys in that range are not really expect to see starting time and play pretty well until further along in their careers. I think as a second year safety he us playing like you would expect from a lower/mid 4 star The sample size on spanellis is very small so it is more speculative for sure. However, he has looked pretty good at mailing dudes in the run game for a second year dude ranked in the 700's. Uche is another I listed who has even less snaps but has looked way better than the 707 rank. McKeon was even lower rated, despite showing having good film. Sure, it was against crap competition (unlike the 3 other guys listed above), but his route running, speed and athleticism was clear on tape. Not to say he looked like an elite te coming out, however he looked close to a top ten team than a 45th ranked one. In his second year, he is playing like a guy that could be one of the top te drafted in a few years (this is assuming he continues to improve and has does not get a bunch if injuries). Hudson was the one that really made me scratch my head though. He had the tape and measurables making his 390ish ranking crazy. Especially after the all Star game. With all that said, we can only judge them on what they have done in their second years. I think all the starters I mentioned have already out preformed their ranks and I think metellus is the only one that can be argued against because McKeon and Hudson have vastly out preformed theirs. While the others have shown flashes that they will likely out preform theirs.

BoFlex

November 24th, 2017 at 11:56 PM ^

I get your point, but it is also hard to deny that recruiting ties closely with success as well. 5* recruits have been shown to be 4x more likely to get drafted when compared to 3* AND 4* recruits combined.

Harbaugh might hit at a higher rate with those middling 3*, it seems unlikely to hit at a 4x higher rate. So for every Khaleke Hudson, there's also a  Devin Gil, Josh Uche, and etc... All of whom, I am sure are fine men and representatives of the university, but will probably not be game-changers.

Remember when everyone was hyping up Nolan Ulizio as an under-the-radar, diamond-in-the-rough that Harbaugh was going to develop into a sure-fire future 1st round pick... Sure, as a RsSo. Ulizio still has some time, but what does his ceiling as a former 3* realistically look like now that we've actually seen him on the field?

Squash34

November 25th, 2017 at 12:53 AM ^

I am the last to argue that recruiting ranking don't matter, and realize the more high 4stars and 5 stars matter. And you are absolutely right about the rate they get drafted. I think harbaugh is really good at finding guys that are overlooked and seeing something in him. I don't know what his % was at Stanford for taking 3 stars and lower and getting them to the NFL compared to the % of five stars that make it, but it has to be a lot higher than most coaches. I also say I agree with our basic premise in the second paragraph. However, I would not choose those 2 guys as examples. Gil was a safety in highschool and was far to slow to play that position in highschool but had the height and frame to gain the weight needed to play backer. The recruiting sites just saw him at safety, which I thought was crazy because it was clear to me that a slow safety that is a big hitter and spent a bunch if time in the box is pretty likely to play backer in college. He has had very little time on defense but has looked like he could be a pretty good backer if he continues to gain weight. And he has made some good hits in ST this year. Although, he has a bunch of studs in the 17 class that may pass him up, so you may get right to list him. But, brown did mention he was excited to see him and the 17 backers next year when asked about the young guys he is excited about for next year. Uche was a 212 de in highschool that had a bunch of fast twitch stuff you like to see... But he was 212!!! That is alot of weight you need to get up to playing weight, even for a stand up edge rushing in exotic passing downs - which I don't think the recruiting sites took that into account and rated him as a wde that was very undersized and needed a few year to gain the weight needed. Anyways, he has started to get playing time in the last few games in passing down packages and has looked really good in that role. The dude has NFL upside. He needs to continue to gain weight, but he can straight up fly when asked to strictly rush the QB and not worry about the rush. Basically, I think there are examples of 3 stars that don't pan out in that class but I don't think those guys are good examples.

BoFlex

November 25th, 2017 at 1:26 AM ^

I do think it is hard to completely write off guys in the 2016 class as they are just now coming to the end of their 2nd season. Looking at the lower-rated guys Harbaugh took at the end of the 2015 cycle:

  • LB Reuben Jones: 2 tlks
  • OT Nolan Ulizio: 2nd/3rd-string RT
  • WR Grant Perry: 51 receptions, 609 yards, and 3 TDs
  • DB Keith Washington: transferred to Copiah-Lincoln CC
  • RB Karan Higdon: 219 carries, 1318 rushings yards (6.0 ypc), and 16 TDs
  • DE Shelton Johnson: ???

So 3 years in, it looks like 2/6 have become noticable contributors, but Higdon is the only one that will probably be a sure-fire draft pick.

Squash34

November 25th, 2017 at 5:06 AM ^

Yeah, I did not look at 2015 because harbaugh had no time to recruit that first class because of when he was hired. Higdon was the only guy that you mentioned where I felt the recruiting sites got it wrong. In the other classes I have seen several guys that seem really underrated when you look at the athleticism shown on tape and measurables.

Bodogblog

November 25th, 2017 at 3:59 AM ^

Not one person has ever said Ulizio would be developed into a first round pick.  Ever.  

He was a late-cycle grab by necessity in Harbaugh's first class, and universally recognized as such.  Clearly not ready in year 3, we'll see about next year.  

KO Stradivarius

November 24th, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^

I believe that Maizen has been caved. Sent to the depths of Bolivia. I clicked on his name to see his recent posts and get "Access Denied". I was doing this earlier with no problem, now he is gone. It must be that he has been deleted. He was a dick to me once in a hockey thread about Babcock. No love lost here.

Squash34

November 24th, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^

He was calling the bottom half of the commit list trash earlier. So, he also talks shit about current commits. This was a few hours ago, so he had the ability to leave comments as of a few hours ago.

BoFlex

November 24th, 2017 at 10:32 PM ^

Welcome aboard, and until Ace can get a full profile up:

Rivals ESPN 247Sports 247Composite

3*

#24 SDE

#NR Ovr

3*

#65 DE

#NR Ovr

3*

#33 SDE

#813 Ovr

3*

#24 SDE

#616 Ovr

 

Wolfman

November 24th, 2017 at 10:38 PM ^

I am happy for you and to see that you are going to put that 3.9 gpa to great use. And considering you've been playing fb for only two years, it's obvious your upside is large. Good luck, welcome aboard and I'm certain you'll have a great 4 to 5 years in Ann Arbor.  GO BLUE!!!

Quailman

November 25th, 2017 at 12:12 AM ^

From the 247 article about Upshaw choosing UM: "The three-star has only been playing football for two years and is the son of former NFL defensive end Regan Upshaw. He also held scholarship offers from Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson and Wisconsin among others"

He apparently played Baseball and Lacrosse and Basketball growing up. This article from 247 has a bit more aon his dad not pushing him to play football: https://247sports.com/college/california/Article/Taylor-Upshaw-son-of-Regan-Upshaw-has-quite-a-bit-of-upside-in-h-103100619.

 

 

Mr Miggle

November 25th, 2017 at 7:06 AM ^

I heard an interview with Sam Sword recently. His son is in middle school and Sam didn't push him into football, in fact he'd prefer he didn't play it. He plays basketball instead. I'd guess that type of thing is not so uncommon with former players. When the son gets older, he may convince his parents to let him play football.. Another family that also had their boys start football late, the Glasgows. 

Occam's Razor

November 24th, 2017 at 10:45 PM ^

Petit-Frere and Friday would be huge gets for the 2018 class. 

Usually with 3-Star commitments you wanna look at the offers. Upshaw has OU, Clemson and UF on his plate. 

That's a high upside 3-Star unlike some of the players Harbaugh has taken in the past who leave a lot more to be desired in the offer department.