Headline: 99% of AD's Believe There Will be a College Football Season
Mates,
So this seems positive. The article gives you all sorts of graphs and charts, with the largest caveat is that the 'season' that occurs might be shortened or it might happen in spring, as has been discussed here.
Some notable graphics here:
And a fair summary quote is here:
Sixty-one percent of the ADs predict the season won’t start until October or November, while 14 percent think the season won’t begin until the spring semester in January or February. One Power Five athletic director doesn’t expect the season to be played at all because of the impact of COVID-19.
The prime motivator will be a surprise to nobody:
What if the worst-case scenario comes true and the college football season doesn’t get played during the 2020-21 academic year?
“There’s too much money at stake, it impacts too many people,” a Power Five AD said. “If there’s no football, we will have bigger issues. This will be worse than the Great Depression and make the 1930s look like a cakewalk.”
Anyway, here's a link to the article. Would be great if there is a season at some point. Oldest son plays small school football and is bummed about no spring practice. Multiply that by thousands and you get the impact on so many young men. Then take all the money that is generated for many programs that also fund sports for the ladies and/or other non-revenue sports, and there is quite an incentive.
Link to article: https://upnorthlive.com/sports/99-percent-of-fbs-ads-believe-well-have-college-football-this-season
Stay safe,
XM
I mean, it's possible, but unless they have a ton of information the rest of us don't have it's all wishful thinking and speculation. The virus doesn't care about how much we want sports back.
I agree, it's 5 months away and nobody knows what is going to happen. This includes all the chicken shits. It's better to just bankrupt athletic departments now as opposed to seeing what happens and plan for the season.
How do you cowards look at yourselves in the mirror every morning?
They should be planning for all contingencies, that's the job of an AD. But they're not epidemiologists or scientists and frankly their opinion on whether it will happen or not is irrelevant except for the fact that sports writers need to write about something.
I get your point, but why would the AD’s opinions be irrelevant? I’d think they have a lot of influence over the current planning taking place and what decisions are eventually made.
The government has been putting forth the guidelines on how large gatherings can be. I don't think there's a P5 AD in the country that wouldn't approve playing games if they're allowed.
The question is whether they'll be allowed and I suppose how to approach things if the guidelines fall somewhere between the number of participants and that plus fans. If governors are saying you can have gatherings of no more than 50, it's easy: no football. If they're saying no limitations, it's also easy: football. If they're saying nothing more than 5k, then it gets tricky and ADs will need to get creative.
Could be the perfect time for the players to leverage their position for money.
I was in the camp that a season would happen in the fall, likely without fans, but changed my mind when people pointed out the pay issue. NFL? Sure, you're making 6-8 figures, probably worth it. NCAA? Even the SEC schools probably can't pay well enough to make the players take the field.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:34 AM ^
If the concussion risk doesn't concern them, I highly doubt the China Virus will given that it's killed almost nobody younger than 30.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
This is the crux of it to me. The NCAA (and, for that matter, MLB, NFL, etc.) can decide to play all they want, but if a single state or city still has a limit on the size of gatherings (say, 50 people), then the whole thing gets blown up. For sports to happen, every relevant Governor and Mayor is going to have to align to allow it, and I don't see that happening any time soon.
Also ADs, thank god, won’t make these decisions. They will be made by state leaders and university presidents. I don’t see Schlissel saying ah well let’s just take our chances and see what happens for the sake of fucking football, of all things. The school’s fate in no way hinges on one football season, especially given its vast reservoir of money.
The first on-time games would be late August, so no, that’s not a lot of time when we’re a month from the low end of many hopefully flattened curves. Oh, and tens of millions of tests need to happen within that timer. Let’s pretend there’s a Federal action plan happening with test and trace.
I, obviously, hope the season starts when it normally does but October wouldn't be too bad.
Still optimistic about it starting on-time, though, the situation seems to be improving.
I think there's a lot of self delusion going on there. The plurality seems to think it'll be October before the season starts. Well if the season starts that late, what happens if there's a second fall outbreak? The plurality of ADs don't seem to understand the implication of what they're expecting to happen.
Sub-headline:
99% of ADs also believe they are underpaid.
This quote really got me.
“There’s too much money at stake, it impacts too many people,” a Power Five AD said. “If there’s no football, we will have bigger issues. This will be worse than the Great Depression and make the 1930s look like a cakewalk.”
Either there is a 90+ year old AD or this is just an asinine statement to make. Comparing the Great Depression to a season without college football? I know they have to make money but don’t overstate your importance in the world. This is an idiotic statement. I hope we have fball but I’d rather not have a season than play it in the Spring. The B10 would be at a huge weather disadvantage with a spring season.
I took that as him saying that if there was no college football it would only be because this virus had an effect worse than the great depression which is the absolute worst case scenario
I took it that way too but I also thought it showed a stunning lack of self-awareness. For B1G football to resume you need many things, not least of which is getting a consensus from the governors of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, and Wisconsin that they think the public health risk of this activity is acceptable. Large gatherings were the first thing to get shut down and while there are various valid economic reason to re-start certain activities, a sport that brings together tens of thousands of people in a confined space for hours for the economic benefit of a fairly small group of folks who are perceived by many to be way overpaid is not a very compelling case for something we must have. Much as I love football, it's probably legitimately the very first thing that should be shut down in a pandemic. I can see a scenario where we're doing ok on getting life moving again, but where there is no football. Or only empty stadium football.
Yeah. I love college football but it's a luxury, and will be one of the very last things to return (at least, with fans in the stands).
I think you missed his point.
If there is no college football season it will be because we have bigger issues going on in the world.
If those bigger issues are going on by then the cumulative effect of those issues will be bigger than the Great Depression.
It still doesn’t make sense. Sporting events will be the last thing to come back. Putting tens of thousands in a stadium, the travel involved, bringing large teams together from different parts of the country, these are perhaps the most risky actions. Organized sports will be the last thing to come back and certainly shouldn’t be used as a barometer for the status of the economy.
You're greatly underestimating the value our society puts on sports. There is no way it's the last thing to come back.
why would the B10 be at a weather disadvantage in the spring, or at least, any more of a disadvantage than they are in the fall/winter?
At least sept and October are decent months. If we played football thru April, well, have you looked outside? It’s hard to play a season while the NFL draft is occurring.
Of course they say that, they are in denial that they are going to have to take massive paycuts.
That is not all that is going on. There are several studies going on right now showing that this thing is not nearly as deadly as originally reported. Nearly 20% of people tested in NYC have tested positive, rendering the mortality rate about .6. Other studies indicating in could be significantly less than that. I think this trending more toward “at risk people stay at home,” which is also far more feasible for economic recovery. There are some Doomers (and governess who are taking active steps to inflate new death numbers) who are ignoring these developments but that doesn’t mean they are not happening.
The current data on presumptive and lab-confirmed cases and deaths are underestimates,” CDC spokesman Scott Pauley said Monday.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-death-toll-us-worse-numbers/story?id=70018321
I think what you’ve done in your sentence about governors is to conflate, inflate, with better calculate.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:15 PM ^
Even if the fatality rate is only .6, and it isn't, that's over 2 million people if everyone gets infected.
Not to mention the fact that many survivors have permanent lung and other organ damage. A Hollywood actor just had his leg amputated due to a covid induced blood clot.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:08 PM ^
It’s a Broadway actor, and he had his leg amputated because that hospital doesn’t know how to do ECMO. COVID is why he went on ECMO, but the leg thrombosis was iatrogenic. ECMO, by the way, was primarily developed by U of M’s own Robert Bartlett. If you ever want to learn about a remarkable human being, learn about him.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:25 PM ^
My cousin went thru ecmo a couple years ago at u of m hospital. Amazing process that saved his life
This isn’t going to come close to the Great Depression.
thank goodness, i think some of us were getting worried.
now that you’ve enlightened us with your economic analysis maybe you could turn that brain to the relative efficacy of drinking bleach and shoving UV lights up our asses.
I'm sure I am in the minority here, but the fatality rate for COVID in Maryland (where I live) for people under 50 is .39%. I think there are precautions you can take with especially vulnerable populations, but we've stopped everything for something that has the same mortality rate for a large majority of the population as influenza.
A recent study showed infection rates are around 14% in NYC. I think a lot of people have been walking around asymptomatic, which suggests the actual fatality rate is much lower than even being reported.
I definitely think there are precautions we can take, but I also think we could start opening things back up in a smart sensible way.
How many times did you have to just use the phrase "I think..."? This is exactly the problem, because even the expert epidemiologists need to say that as well. We don't know shit, which is what makes this both dangerous and devastating. I agree that we can start opening things up slowly, as they're already starting to do where I live (San Diego), but trying to predict anything 6 months down the road right now carries zero confidence.
[Edit: I'm not disagreeing with you or attacking you, just using your post since it makes my point so nicely!]
Definitely. I haven't watched many of the news conferences, but I have seen in the highlights that "Fauci believes X" or "Experts predict Y" and everyone is guessing. Time will tell of course.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:16 PM ^
You’re both right, this whole situation is unprecedented in modern times. Experts make educated guesses, but no one really knows. It’s like asking Jim Harbaugh who is going to win a football game between Northwestern and Illinois- he’s an expert, he knows more than most of us, but it’s still an educated guess. This stuff isn’t precise like calculating a satellite orbit, there are many more variables and unknowns.
" I think a lot of people have been walking around asymptomatic, which suggests the actual fatality rate is much lower than even being reported."
You can also say that due to this, a large number of early fatalities that were from COVID are not being counted.
That's true as well. There was a recent news article that the coroner in Santa Clara sent some tissue sample of deceased people to the CDC who confirmed the deceased died of COVID. The first death was on 2/6. That moves the infection timeline up considerably. However, the number of people who were walking around without symptoms or who thought they had a cold and didn't seek treatment is much higher than the number of unexplained deaths. Only widespread reliable antibody testing will confirm what the true infection and mortality rates are.
This is definitely true, however, a recent article in the economist had an interesting methodology that showed NYC probably did a pretty accurate job of counting deaths (after their inclusion of ‘presumed’ C19 deaths), other places... not so much. So this combined with the serology testing (I think the 14% positive for antibodies cited above was for the state, whereas NYC was higher) probably gives a reasonable estimate of the IFR.
You think? Well that’s encouraging. More nonsense about mortality rate. Do you think the hospitals in NYC, NO, and Detroit give two shits about mortality rate? Do you think what has transpired in these areas is normal? It’s about the number of critically ill people that get sick at the same time. The healthcare system doesn’t care about mortality, it cares about the number of people it has the resources to care for. If something has 100% mortality but only 100 people get it, then who cares? If it’s predicted that something will infect hundreds of millions of people and the mortality is .34%(your number) that’s a much bigger problem. Go volunteer at one of these facilities then report back to us about how we are ‘blowing this out of proportion with a mortality similar to the flu’.
Dude, hospitals are fine, seriously ask doctors....at hospitals. The system is holding up fine. They converted the TCF Center to a huge hospital and there is nobody there. There are tents set up all over Detroit and Macomb that are sitting empty, there is nobody there. It was not the goal to eradicate the virus before returning to some form of normalcy. That is a ridiculously dangerous bait and switch, it is politically driven. There is no guarantee there will ever be a vaccine for this, that was never the “finish line” nor should it be.
This seems like great news regarding football. I would guess that ADs are privy to more information that would bear relevance to this topic and I’m really happy to hear they think we will be good to go.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:14 PM ^
You still backed down.
If hospitals are fine, go volunteer tomorrow, record it. Prove that you are right. Dont wear a mask. Theyre just part of the conspiracy!
Until you do you are the shit talking pansy you have always been on here..
“Volunteers” are not let anywhere near hospitals, man. Most people who need medical treatment can’t even get it right now.
The biggest hotspot in the country is NYC, and they are giving away ventilators to other states because they didn't use them. I understand we don't want everyone sick at once. But there are solutions beyond everyone hiding in their homes for months. What if we all wear masks and social distance in public? What if we still maintain separate shopping hours for people over 50 and/or immunocompromised? Are there no other solutions beyond shutting everything down?
Yes there are. But they don’t advance the agenda, and that is why they are being ignored. People are beginning to catch on though, slowly, but they are.
Do you not think that literally everyone in charge is considering those options? Politicians, CEOs, scientists, etc. are ALL looking at ALL of those options and they're still saying we need to stay home. What kind of conspiracy theory could you possibly come up with that would have casino owners shutting down their casinos instead of just handing out complimentary masks and keeping people at a "safe distance" if that were possible?
It's like people think "let's be a safe distance away from people in public" is some kind of novel thought that the experts could never considered. It's been considered. It's being considered. It's not safe enough at this point for that, and we don't know yet exactly when it will be.
something that has the same mortality rate for a large majority of the population as influenza.
It's still higher than for influenza for young/middle-aged adults.
Beyond that, there are a lot of reports of "recovered" patients exhibiting lung, heart or kidney damage afterwards. I don't know exactly what proportion of patients develop those, but it's apparently not trivial. People are making it sound like you either die or make a full recovery from this, and that's not necessarily true.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:14 AM ^
Or, it's a lot more contagious than we initially thought.
This is a moot point... We've already seen how the statistics trend without social distancing (or a vaccine, or an effective treatment, or pervasive testing...)
German Bundesliga --- pending government approval, which Angela Merkel and company will decide on next week --- may be starting back up as early as May 9.
Now, of course, there will be no fans. But that could be an interesting "leading indicator" as regards when/if sports start coming back.
If I had to bet, I'm thinking FBS college football is a thing this fall. Perhaps only conference games (this would theoretically reduce travel and expenses), but I think it will be played in some form.
It's possible to imagine that there will be a testing and tracing program in place that would allow the teams to play and collect that TV money. I have a hard time imagining any scenario, short of an unexpected vaccine, that would allow 100,000 people to go sit in a stadium together for the sake of football? It's great to be hopeful but the baseline planning needs to be reasonable and this reads like a bunch of people afraid to admit the painful financial reality they're facing. Lots of denial throughout society about what the rest of 2020 and 2021 may (or may not) look like.
Wow this is pure Doomer.