From a great weekend of good games to... meh... anything interesting to you?

Submitted by Amazinblu on November 7th, 2022 at 9:53 AM

It seems that most college football fans enjoyed the weekend - with games of interest in every conference, and impacts on the CFP rankings which will be released tomorrow.   

Georgia over Tennessee, ND over Clemson, LSU over Bama, Buckeyes at Northwestern, MSU over the Illini, Michigan at Rutgers, etc..

Which leads me to this weekend.  And, besides cheering for a specific team, it might be a challenge to find other appealing matchups - besides TCU at Texas.   

The matchups between top 25 teams this week are: 

1. Bama at Ole Miss.  It will be great to see what the Rebels and Lane Kiffin come up with.

2. UCF at Tulane.  Game Day should be in New Orleans.

3. TCU at Texas.  Can a healthy Texas derail the Horned Frogs?

4. North Carolina at Wake Forest.  Hmmm, I would enjoy a Wake Forest win, followed by UNC eventually defeating Clemson in the ACC CCG.

And, of course, Michigan hosts Nebraska for a mid-afternoon game in seasonably cool weather.

Any early thoughts on this weekend's game?  What are you looking forward to, or hoping, to see?

Mike Damone

November 7th, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^

I found it interesting how bad Illinois sucked in that home game v Sparty.  WTF...

Also, USC and UCLA would be pummeled in the BIG.  Their defenses are pathetic.

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goblu330

November 7th, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^

This weekend made it a lot more possible.  The TCU loss is key, and this weekend is really the best chance.  Assuming a Michigan win against OSU because it is going to happen, I think that would be 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Tennessee, 4. OSU.  Would avoid Georgia and likely avoid the Peach Bowl.

Would be nice to get Oregon out of the picture too.  Hosting Washington this weekend.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 7th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^

Ohh yeah I forgot the Peach Bowl is a semifinal site this year, and I believe the #1 seed gets to pick which site they want to play at. Being that Georgia is likely going to remain #1 unless they somehow lose, you know they're going to pick the Peach Bowl, and that will be a virtual home game for them. 

There would definitely be plenty of Michigan fans who would go, but that crowd could easily be 70/30 in favor of Georgia. 

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Newton Gimmick

November 7th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^

Even at this point, I think the idea of a 13-0 TCU is way overstated.  They are a +235(!) underdog this week @ Texas, and by power ratings they are a pick'em next week @ unranked Baylor.  Then they play a stingy Iowa St before a theoretical Big 12 championship game against a Kansas St team they had to come back to beat after knocking out both 1st and 2nd string QBs.

TCU is an alright team and a good story but they had insane luck with opposing QBs getting hurt.  Even this past week they were losing at home in the 4th quarter to Texas Tech before a terrible facemask penalty swung that game in their favor.  

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ndscott50

November 7th, 2022 at 1:05 PM ^

You are forgetting the Pac 12.  One of USC, UCLA or Oregon (i'd put my money on Oregon) is most likely going to end up as a one loss Pac 12 champion who will have multiple top 25 wins over their last four games to get there.  That team is in the playoff.  They are not going to put a 1 loss non conference campion in ahead of them. So if Georgia and TCU win out, it would be those two plus Michigan/Ohio State Winner, plus Pac 12 champion.

If TCU loses there is an additional spot which will be more of an argument between a potential one loss ACC champ (unlikely as I think both North Carolina and Clemson lose again), a one loss TCU big 12 champ (though they could lose to both Texas and in the Big 12 Championship) and the loser of Michigan/Ohio State and a one loss Tennessee.   

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stephenrjking

November 7th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^

This is where I'll quietly drop in that there is some of that table-setting for a 2-loss SEC team... and we shouldn't get too worked up about it. Setting the table for a 2-loss SEC team making the playoff is really just positioning in the event of various chaos events. 

A 2-loss team isn't a novel idea: I suggested that someday a 2-loss team would make the playoff, and tried to set the table for a scenario where Michigan could do it way back in 2015.* LSU won the national title with two losses in that zany 2007 season. So a season in which a lot of chaos happens and a couple of teams with strong records look to everyone like paper tigers is not unheard of, and in that scenario there's a plausible scenario for a 2-loss team, and the most likely place for that 2-loss team to come from is the SEC. 

That's not going to come at our expense. That's going to come at the expense of a team from a weak conference, or in a scenario where there just aren't enough 0 or 1-loss teams to complete the field. A 1-loss TCU, for example. Maybe a Clemson or North Carolina that wins the ACC and everyone knows is worse than the top of the SEC. 

And, to be fair, this year I think the SEC has a good argument in the unlikely scenario that LSU wins out and beats Georgia in the SEC championship game. Let's suppose that happens, and the PAC champion is 1-loss Oregon. You aren't picking Oregon over Georgia. And while the transitive property is overused, there's a good argument to pick stronger-as-the-season goes SEC champion LSU with 2 losses over that Oregon team that got trucked by the team LSU just beat.

I'm not saying it will happen; I'm just saying that I'm not going to waste time worrying about the committee overvaluing a 2-loss SEC team in certain scenarios. Beat Ohio and Michigan is in the playoff. Lose that game close and we've got a good chance if the rest of the country breaks the wrong way. I do not expect the committee to allow three SEC entrants, so it's really just a question of who gets the other two. 

*It wound up being pretty reasonable, too. Events didn't break right--the scenario needed OSU to beat MSU at home, which didn't happen but wasn't at all unreasonable, and then Michigan to beat OSU at home and win the B1G title game against Iowa, which didn't happen but wouldn't have been unreasonable if DJ Durkin hadn't been halfway out the door; that could have vaulted Michigan over MSU, OSU, and eventual committee #5 Iowa. 2-loss Stanford finished sixth, and Michigan would have cleared them easily with wins over OSU and Iowa; we would have been the 4 seed behind Clemson, Bama, and Oklahoma. Alas, it didn't work out.

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TrueBlue2003

November 7th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^

Need two TCU losses.  It'll probably happen but we aren't getting in at 11-1 over a 12-1 TCU team that will have played a much more difficult schedule.  Probably need the Pac-12 champs and ACC champs to have two losses as well, but they won't have quote the SoS advantage that TCU will have (and wouldn't it be ironic if UCLA won the Pac12 with one loss).

Their game this weekend is huge.  They're 7 point dogs.   Should lose, so we'll see.

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ESNY

November 7th, 2022 at 1:31 PM ^

Define the much more difficult TCU schedule? 

Their best win is a 3-loss K-State team. If they beat Texas this week, that will give Texas a fourth loss.  You can make an argument that an undefeated TCU might be jumped by a 1-loss team. But no way is a 1-loss TCU team getting anywhere near a playoff spot unless all hell breaks out. ESPN has their SOS at 68, five spots above Michigan. And we still have to go on the road to play the #3 team whereas they have to play at Texas as their best remaining game.

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JBLPSYCHED

November 7th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^

I'm not sure that we need two TCU losses; despite the fact that the Big 12 is pretty balanced this year TCU losing to let's say Texas or even K St. in the CCG might very well expose them as as pretender. I think the loser of a close M/OSU game will be viewed favorably compared with one loss TCU despite, in our case, a lame out of conference schedule.

I feel the same way about the loser of a close M/OSU game vs a one loss ACC champ, even if it's Clemson, despite their history in recent seasons.

OTOH I don't believe this would hold vs. a one loss Pac 12 champ--let's say Oregon. If they win out, despite their first game creaming vs UGA, they will get into the CFP over a 1 loss B1G champ.

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The Homie J

November 7th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^

I don't think Michigan gets in the CFP with a loss to Ohio State, but I could see Ohio State sneaking in if they lose The Game.  We simply don't have any wins to hang our hats on other than Penn State because Illinois and Maryland have shit the bed, so they won't be ranked because they don't a get a bump for being in the middle of the SEC.

Michigan I feel has to win The Game if we want any shot at a playoff spot.  Ohio State unfortunately has some wiggle room thanks to Notre Dame getting back up off the mat.

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goblu330

November 7th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^

I had not considered this angle, unfortunately.  Now I'm mad at you.

But who, instead?  A one-loss TCU?  A one-loss Oregon when their loss was like 114-6? (And would be in a rematch with the team that hung 114 on them).  Clemson who just got boat raced?  I agree that it will be harder for Michigan than OSU if Michigan is the team trying to get in after losing The Game, but I just don't see who else it would be if TCU loses.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 7th, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^

They still have Caleb Williams and some extremely talented receivers. Not on OSU's level, but still very good. Their defense is blegh, but Caleb Williams is a serious playmaker. There would also be the concern of wondering who's going to sit out that game. 

That's not an opponent I'd want to have to play. 

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username03

November 7th, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^

Compelling argument backed by exactly the intellectual heft I alluded to.

Why here rather than somewhere else in my “posting history” where it might actually make sense? Why Ohio rather than Sparty of even Rutger? Is this better or worse than other forms of pretending to be someone else that you may be more familiar with?

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FauxMo

November 7th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^

I saw a bold call this morning on the social medias... Bama closes the season with only one more win (over Austin Peay) and losses to Ole Miss and Auburn. That would be the first 4-loss season for Bama since, what, early 2000s? 

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outsidethebox

November 7th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^

TCU remains in full view-folks can dis them all they wish. 

Here, Michigan fans need to root for Bama.

Generally, only fools predict upsets-but even fools guess correctly. Those who are favored had, still, better show up to play. 

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rob f

November 7th, 2022 at 10:01 AM ^

I'm not hoping to see more than a few minutes of any of the weekend games other than the one at The Big House. 

We'll be tailgating by 9am and for two hours afterwards.  Any possible TV viewing will be a quick peek or two if any nearby tailgate has a satellite dish set up to an interesting noon or night game.

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Amazinblu

November 7th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^

rob,

I usually have a tv set up for our tailgate - and, the game selection is "not too interesting" IMO.

The early games - Indiana at Ohio State, ND at Navy, or Purdue at Illinois.

Bama at Ole Miss plays the same time as Michigan's game.

In the evening - so, there could be some time to watch - but, at the same time, it's going to be cool. TCU at Texas and North Carolina at Wake Forest.

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brad

November 7th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^

I'll be spending this Saturday in Ann Arbor for the first time since 2018 with my bro and his son, so not a care in the world about the rest of the day's slate!

However, whatever the ACC can do to reveal it's true self and help the committee finally notice that the ACC doesn't have good teams will get a thumbs up from me.

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