A glimpse ahead to 2011

Submitted by rbgoblue on
I know its a little premature, but lets look at the top 4 teams in the Big 10 and who we won't see around here any more.*
 
* I looked at current depth charts according to rivals.com for consistency, and made note of current starters who are departing after this season
 
Ohio State
RB – Brandon Saine
WR – Taurian Washington
WR – Dane Sanzenbacher
G – Justin Boren
G – Bryant Browning
DE – Cameron Heyward
DT – Dexter Larimore
LB – Ross Homan
LB – Brian Rolle
CB – Chimdi Chekwa
CB – Devon Torrence
S – Jermale Hines
 
Wisconsin
 
QB – Scott Tolzien
WR – Isaac Anderson
WR – David Gilreath
TE – Lance Kendricks
OT – Gabe Carimi
G – John Moffit
LB – Blake Sorensen
LB - Culmer St. Jean
CB – Niles Brinkley
CB – Marcus Cromartie
S – Jay Valai
 
Michigan State
WR – Mark Dell
TE – Charlie Gnatt
OT – DJ Young
OT – J'Michael Deane
C – John Stipek
DE – Colin Neely
LB – Eric Gordon
LB – Greg Jones
S – Marcus Hyde
 
Iowa
QB – Ricky Stanzi
FB – Brett Morse
WR – Durell Johnson-Kilianos
TE – Allen Reisner
G – Julian Vandervelde
G – Josh Koeppel
DE – Christian Ballard
DE – Adrian Clayborn
DT – Karl Klug
LB – Troy Johnson
LB – Jeremia Hunter
S – Brett Greenwood
 
Its clear that some of our stiffest competition will be losing key contributors after this year.  Lets compare to the situation that Michigan.  I present the departing seniors from our current 2-deep:
 
G – Stephen Schilling
OT – Perry Dorrenstein
TE – Martell Webb
DE – Greg Banks
LB – Obi Ezeh
LB – Jonas Mouton
CB – James Rodgers
 
We may not have the roster to compete with the top teams in the B10 this season due to our roster, however looking at our losses compared to theirs, its a huge net-positive moving forward.  All 4 teams will lose key parts of their linebacking corps.  DE's Heyward and Coleman (not to mention Kerrigan - not listed) will go, and JJ Watt could enter the draft.  Senior QB's in Tolzein and Stanzi are graduating, and neither team has proven to have a competent backup this season.  OSU will always be tough.  MSU will still be decent on offense next year, but I think things look good for Michigan putting a roster on the field that can be expected to contend for a B10 championship.
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umchicago

November 21st, 2010 at 6:15 PM ^

they will be in the other division.  i think the key game will be sparty.  we must beat them next year to have a decent shot at playing in the big10 title game.  we also have NE at home; the other key game.

unfortuneately, osu isn't as important anymore which sux.

Joined: 02/05/2009

MGoPoints: 33676

DaytonBlue

November 21st, 2010 at 5:31 PM ^

we remain a middle of the pack B10 team. Scootch over Illinois and Purdue.  I don't believe you can be a BCS caliber team w/o quality D and ST play.  I'm really hoping all you guys that suggest it's just our youth and injuries are correct.

Joined: 12/08/2009

MGoPoints: 2079

InRodWeTrust333

November 21st, 2010 at 6:26 PM ^

I love that we have 5 straight home games against ND, Eastern, Western, SD State and Minnesota to start off the year followed by Northwestern. Get bowl eligiblity out of the way right off the bat and do work the remainder of the year. Cant wait! (after saturday and the bowl game that is)

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 2330

Tater

November 21st, 2010 at 6:55 PM ^

We may be very happy at ND's struggles, but Brian Kelly seems to be pretty good at getting his programs better each year until they reach excellence.  I would imagine that Kelly is just as pissed at a bad year as RR gets, and will work just as hard to get results. 

I want to see a 6-0 start as much as anyone, but I don't see ND to be an autowin.  Similar to Michigan, ND is going to have two good QB's next year.  Their players will have a year of experience in Kelly's system.  And they have been pulling in some decent recruiting classes. 

ND is always a big game because it is ND, but it could be huge next year.  It could be one of those games where a win looks better and better to the computers and the polls as the season goes on.  I know it's way too early to say, but ND could be a game with BCS ramifications. 

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

ATLWolverine

November 21st, 2010 at 6:49 PM ^

excellent point! RR should be rolling early, though given his track record, people will probably be reluctant to buy the M hype until we've beaten a solid Big Ten team (unless ND is actually good next year? Right-- til we've beaten a good Big Ten team).

I think it's reasonable to expect great things, although Northwestern isn't the pushover it usually is. With this schedule, looks like RR is in the driver's seat; win or lose, it will be 100% on him at that point.

Joined: 02/16/2009

MGoPoints: 1658

Bluestreak

November 21st, 2010 at 8:01 PM ^

Our defense is our Achilles Heel. Until we become a top 30 defensive team, B10 will be always a tough ordeal.

 

/wall o text

A couple of things need to happen.

We must attract elite defensive talent to Michigan on a consistent basis.

This was compounded by the fact that when Carr era ended we had hardly any depth on the D and the players we recruited didn't qualify, threw a hissy fit and left or just never turned up. All in all - we have been really very unlucky with bringing elite defensive talent on board. The result is that we are playing freshman across the defense and while they are doing a good job absolutely, the situation is not ideal.

GERG - While I believe Gerg has been  a great coach in the past, you simply can't run a 3-3-5 in the B10. It is a power conference and teams will chew us out with their power running games. This needs to change - Yes another scheme change/  coach change is needed.

/end wall o text

Joined: 09/26/2010

MGoPoints: 1956

NateVolk

November 21st, 2010 at 8:04 PM ^

The losses on the other contending teams and our  retention of almost everybody is one of the biggest reasons to look forward to 2011 as a contending season. The other is that we have won more each year which shows improvement.

Major issues to fix though and the only difference in the schedule is that we slide out Wisky and insert Nebraska. MSU and Iowa are road games.

We better count on being very good and assume they all will be too. Like everyone is saying, the really good programs don't tip over in their "down" years.

Joined: 07/19/2010

MGoPoints: 6863

kind of a big deal

November 21st, 2010 at 8:31 PM ^

All of the "losses" that the OP notes are just standard turnover for those teams.  They are all established programs at this point, especially OSU, so they simply reload.  Michigan used to do this as well, going from the likes of Rob Renes, to Gabe Watson, to Alan Branch, and Lamar Woodley to Brandan Graham.

Now, we go from Brandon Graham to Greg Banks and Jibreel Black.  Whether RR or Gerg stay long term, or a new regime comes in, the program has a long way to go to get back to solid footing.

 

Footnote - Jibreel may end up being a stud, but freshman Jibreel does not equal Jr. or Sr. B. Graham.

Joined: 11/13/2009

MGoPoints: 484

VaUMWolverine

November 21st, 2010 at 9:21 PM ^

If RR doesnt get a new DC and let him assemble his own staff, he deserves whatever he gets. I've supported RR all along and still do, but as I've said at least a hundred times, with this offense coming back, if Michigans D is just in the top 70 right now, they are probably at least 9-2. If RR lets loyalty get in the way then we need a new HC.

2011 could be special if...

Go Blue!

EDIT: Theres still a chance (albeit an outside one) of 8 or 9 wins this season!!! If only we had a decent defense! All of this negativity would be moot.

Joined: 10/19/2009

MGoPoints: 1346

chunkums

November 21st, 2010 at 9:22 PM ^

Last year all the fire richrod folks didn't give a shit about details and just harped that the only thing that matters is wins.  Now we have their "required" totals and they suddenly are concerned with details.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 29028

the_dude

November 21st, 2010 at 9:29 PM ^

Next season sets up well because we only have a couple really tough road games.  The two that right now look the most difficult are MSU and Iowa.  MSU will have Cousins as a Sr QB so that will be a very tough game.  Iowa loses Stanzi and I'm not sure how their QB situation looks so we could be facing a QB who isn't quite ready for prime time.

We also have Illinois and Northwestern on the road but neither of those have been terribly difficult places to play.  If the defense gets to the point where it's decent (and we've been saying that for two years now) and the offense becomes more efficient then we have a shot at hitting double-digit wins.

Joined: 09/01/2010

MGoPoints: 2275

GunnersApe

November 22nd, 2010 at 9:33 AM ^

...about 100 times after the bowl game.

DC

Depth

Other teams depth

EDIT: I want to enjoy this week (win/lose) and Bowl season before MgoBlog goes into the long wait till SEP 2011.

Joined: 11/19/2009

MGoPoints: 6930