Game(Season) Theory Hot Take - OSU should have played for a close loss
Ahead of the CFP rankings tonight there's been a lot of discussion/chatter around how bad OSU's loss looks (3 scores, at home) and the possibility they'll fall below Alabama (which I think would be ridiculous, but SEC amirite).
Imagine you're OSU, with deflated expectations during the game when you're down 38-23 (can't stop em, can barely score during 2nd half). Do you try to make it a close (1 score) loss instead of going high variance trying to still win? This would be done mostly on defense, letting Michigan grind the clock out rather than gambling for stops.
At 31-23, trying still makes sense - you just need 1 stop. But at 38-23, you need two quick stops, and a 2 pt conversion, with ~7 minutes left to go, far less likely.
I guess in reality they managed to march down most of the field pretty fast to try to get their first score (interception happened with ~4.5 minutes left) so the real problem is that they failed to score, period.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
No. Never. Ridiculous.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
Interesting take, but probably moot in the end. Whether a close lose or a big one, putting Bama ahead of them is equally ridiculous. And neither team will eclipse USC/TCU if the win one more game. Which, you know, they should not move down for playing in a conference championship game, regardless.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
Which, you know, they should not move down for playing in a conference championship game, regardless.
While on one hand I can see the point, "why punish someone for playing an extra game", how far does this go?
What if USC gets smoked 55-0? What if they lose 24-21? Where's the line for when the "no punishment for extra game" applies?
November 29th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
Yeah, I get that. I mean I guess if they get blown out by multiple scores that's a different story. But any close game should not be punished.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
Um, I think they did? In fact, I think they played to win?? This meme that OSU “quit” on the game is lazy. They got beat and could neither stop us nor score in the second half no matter how hard they tried.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying - I wasn't saying they quit on the game, I'm speculating whether they would have been better off if they tried to keep the score close rather than winning (at some point).
What they actually tried to do was win, period. Not sure where I suggested they quit in reality.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
That’s fair. I may have inferred the “they quit” conclusion from your post. But I guess I still don’t understand how they play to” lose close” in this scenario. They’re down 31-20. They kick an FG to make it 31-23, which enraged many OSU fans already as “not playing to win.” On the next series, IIRC, Stroud throws the underhand INT instead of taking the sack. I guess he could have taken the sack and OSU kicks another FG to make it 31-26?
November 29th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
If they make the choice when its 31-23, their best case scenario is letting Michigan VERY SLOWLY march down the field and kneel the ball in the red zone, which would end in a (much better looking) 1 score loss. They would have to play some sort of more normal defense though, basically ceding 5 yard runs every play but no explosives.
In my OP I make the case that it's extremely unlike they can choose that at 31-23 though (without the benefit of hindsight that they'll lose), so imagine they do the same at 38-23 and its a 2 score loss - does that look better enough?
November 29th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
Would have been hilarious if they abandoned the aggressive cover 0 defense at the end when they most needed to stop a long drive.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
OSU arguing (and the college football world believing) that it should be in the CFP after a loss to Michigan is the most entitled, standing-on-third-base-thinking-you've-hit-a-triple argument ever.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
Particularly since if the shoe was on the other foot and we lost last Saturday, NOBODY would be making a case for Michigan to slide into the 4th seed spot for the CFP (except maybe Michigan fans).
November 29th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
Not even a complete reversal. Forget losing by 22. If Michigan had lost this game by 1, there’s not a chance in hell we’d be going to the playoffs. Ohio State gets destroyed in their own stadium and they’ve still got a shot.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
And all because they beat a top-10 Penn State.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
I don't blame them for it at all - its the right thing to do and there's almost no downside to it.
I do like to think they're all saying "if TCU or USC loses" - hopefully they're not saying "should make it in even over PAC-12 champ USC", that would be pretty deluded.
National perception/media coverage does seem to make a difference. But quick look to jog my memory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff#Selections_by_year shows that OSU absolutely has a chance if USC or TCU lose (at least that's how I read it)
November 29th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
Its a joke. Had Michigan lost by 3 scores or even 1 score against #2 team in their house they still would keep Michigan out. But because its AN osu... I cant believe we're even having this conversation after that beat down.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
I'm confused. They gave up two 75+ yard touchdown runs while they were trying to stop us from scoring and get the ball back quickly. They got the ball back quickly and still didn't score. So what exactly are you asking?
November 29th, 2022 at 12:34 PM ^
whether they should have let us get 5 yards at a time + score only one TD vs. two TDs. So they would have given up, but it would have ended 38-23 instead of 45-23.
And the answer is no, and that this is one of the hottest, most ridiculous takes ever. I understand their current state of mind, and maybe they'll be happy if they make the CFP, but most of what I'm reading right now says "I don't even want them to go".
November 29th, 2022 at 1:50 PM ^
OP was light on details, but I suspect the alternative strategy was a combination of "stop blitzing, you idiots" and "get your damn safeties out of the box" to avoid those quick/easy touchdowns.
November 29th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
They should have done that anyway.
November 29th, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
Yes basically - I'm not a coach or anything but I assume there's plenty of different ways to play defense that are less big play prone. I don't mean a full on prevent or anything of course.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
Ryan Day was going to do this, just like he did last year.
Down 15, score a TD, he wasn't going to go for 2 right away. You need to know whether you are down 1 or 2 possession as soon as possible. But like in '21, he would've waited because an 8 point loss is "1 possession" and more respectable.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
You can't stay close if you give up TD "drives" of 1, 1, and 3 plays.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
Only problem with theory is they have to play man ball defense in the 4th quarter. Does that sound like OSU?
November 29th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
This is a very good point - is it even possible for OSU to play a bend but don't break defense against Michigan's run game.
Straight up, maybe not? But maybe if Michigan is in a shell and not throwing at all, they could have had a chance.
November 29th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
93, perhaps that was a Buckeye strategy to keep their D rested for key plays in the fourth quarter.
This way - their D wasn't getting exhausted on the field - and, they would be able to leverage their prolific offense to score and capitalize on any Michigan mistakes and turnovers.
Yeah.. right.. lol...
November 29th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
Wouldn't matter...Wrong conference. Tennessee got hammered at UGA and, in my opinion, looked worse than OSU. Yet all the pollsters and the CFP committee slobbed Ol' Smokey's knob until they got exposed at South Carolina. Some are still trying to make an argument for them even though Milton is airmailing sub 4.4 receivers.
OSU is going to be five, behind Alabama tonight. I just feel it in my bones.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
I assume this means OSU is going to be 6, behind Alabama? Unless you're saying someone's jumping USC
November 29th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
Personally, I think USC should be ahead of them even with a (close) loss this weekend. OSU admittedly has a better resume - but not by much. They both handled ND. OSU handled PSU, and got blown out by #2 M. USC lost a close heartbreaker at Utah, and beat ranked Oregon State and UCLA. They missed Oregon and Washington, but nevertheless the UCLA win isn't much less impressive than the PSU one. Likewise, while M is a better team than Utah, a 1 pt road loss at night vs a 3-score-and-change home loss in a rivalry game doesn't make the OSU loss "better." Oregon State may be comparable to Maryland.
So with resumes being equivalent - and assuming USC loses close to Utah again, and is not a champion - at this point the question is, do we want to see a 2nd big ten team or a comparable Pac12 team? Personally, we know that OSU isn't good enough. You could say USC hasn't proven they belong, which would be true, but OSU had their shot and lost thoroughly. So as long as USC keeps it close, I think they should be in over OSU.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
Oregon State may be comparable to Maryland.
Wanted to discuss the particulars of this sentence (thinking: "really? You think Maryland has sunk that low?), but then went and looked at the records and Oregon State is 9-3 and Maryland is 7-5 - I had lost track of how bad Maryland's record had gotten. Having PSU and OSU at the end of the season hurts their trajectory, but that Wisconsin loss is straight poop.
November 29th, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^
Assuming USC loses close, here's my thinking:
- USC has Caleb Williams which gives them a chance in any game.
- OSU has C.J. Stroud, who pulled out a tight one against Northwestern
November 29th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
at that point Day was in such shock and disbelief that they weren't winning, no that they weren't blowing us out..... he was like coach Klein after Red took his playbook..... wearing high heels and babbling baby talk.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
A loss in The Game is simply an unacceptable outcome to either side. Not getting into the CFP is bad but losing to Michigan is worse.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
OSU had such a weird strategy. They were too aggressive on defense and too conservative on offense, and never adjusted. Poor coaching all around from the cooler poopers.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:07 PM ^
I can understand why they might not have felt the need to adjust a lot at halftime - they were winning! One of Michigan touchdowns was pretty fluky (missed tackle by DB), the other one was easily fixable (don't bite on the outside move).
But (1) that's pretty lazy or inept coaching and (2) they didn't even make the second adjustment! That DB totally bit on Loveland's (barely) out and up move - maybe the coaches told him, but he forgot....
November 29th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Not sure what the OP is getting at here as it sounds as if they are making the assumption that OSU only has the horses for a shoot-out type of game and can't grind out a win. I think from most circles in the local media and national media for that matter is that chances were there on 4th down to extend drives and they were either not converted or attempted while MICH iced the game.
Don't know why Day thought they could stop JJ and Co. after the Cover 0 exploitations. Once their defensive pressure eased up to manage WRs running roughshod, they got a heavy dose of D Edwards which was just as lethal as Corum.
The other issue here is that OSU thought, and probably still does, that their talent level is far superior to Mich and this was exposed. Physical talent, probably to some degree but mentally Mich was lightyears ahead of OSU's team and they matched them, stride for stride. A lot of OSU folks are bitching it was the big plays that did them in. And they're right but they also need to acknowledge it was OSU's big plays for decades that killed Michigan's defense. Big rivalry games almost always come down to the big plays and if those aren't important for OSU slappies, then they played a fine game.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
In an attempt to explain myself better, I start with a thesis that "a close loss to Michigan would have been better for OSU than the 3 score loss", then go to "knowing that now, would/could OSU have played differently to account for that?". Very much a thought experiment rather than a real world thing, but there are plenty of sports events where "playing for a tie" is the optimal solution (World Cup group stage, some NFL playoff qualifiers).
First depends on your opinion of whether a 1 score loss OSU has a much better chance at CFP than 3 score loss OSU.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^
Why would THEE osu play for a close loss when their goal apparently wasn't to win but to prove they're tough?
November 29th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
OP, what you're suggesting seems preposterous. I can't imagine a scenario where CFP positioning is mingled in any detailed way with an actual game plan (which is complicated enough for the players to execute).
At a macro (that is, whole game) level? Maybe. Michigan seems to have done that with Illinois.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^
Yes its a theoretical exercise rather than practical.
But there's definitely precedence for some level of "CFP positioning is overlaid in any way on an actual game plan" but from a long time ago. When it was the BCS championship (before the Margin of Victory cap at least), style points were definitely awarded, and teams were definitely running up the score even in games that were well in hand.
At least that's how I remember it. Obviously that's very different than what I'm suggesting though.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
When you have your boot on the throat of your enemy you crush their windpipe, you don't help them up.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:16 PM ^
Donovan Edwards did not get that memo.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
How would they have done that, exactly?
November 29th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
Play the defense some of our opponents did throughout the season - 6.5 in the box and prevent big plays (air or ground).
We'll see in the UFR much better, but that might actually be the defense we played most of the game against them, since we had no respect for their running game even in some short yardage situations.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
If your only goal is to make the CFP then this could make sense, but someone who punts on trying to win the Michigan-Ohio State game to try and keep the score close with the WR talent they have would be such a catastrophic decision.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
I've heard of this "Defeated with Dignity" strategy before.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
I don't care about Ohio State in the playoffs, but they certainly did take a Yes-in-the-Face approach to defense for a lot of the day, which was a nice change up from most of the rest of the season in which teams took a not in the face approach.
November 29th, 2022 at 2:10 PM ^
Every team losing late in the game wants to make it as close as possible. It's a mute point. The fact is that OSU imploded late in the game. Michigan exploded for two more long TD runs as well as our defense snuffing the life out any OSU offense play. Game OVER! Meeechigan by 22 points!
November 29th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Dear Santa,
I know its early.... but this Saturday, could you please give Michigan an easy victory with no injuries? I would also like an upset of GA by the bayou tigers and wins for both TCU and USC.. That should set us up with a CFP that looks something like this.
1. Michigan
2.TCU
3.GA
4.USC
Thanks Santa....