FEI / S&P+ For Big 10 and Selected Others

Submitted by alum96 on

I will post this weekly now that FEI has finally been compiled for both offense and defensive units.  I tend to lean to FEI over S&P+, as I think the FEI strength of schedule adjustments in particular are more pertinent but I like both over the basic NCAA stats which adjust for nothing.  FEI also just seems to work with the eye test more often than not the past few years I have followed these stats (See how FEI likes Utah below for example) That said, you could always do an average of the two to get an idea of where any team stands in an "adjusted" fashion. 

If you are curious how UM graded last year (sorry to bring back the ennui) its was 70s to 90s on offense and 30s to 40s on defense, depending which measure you used.

Of the remaining schedule the 1 fun nugget for the FEI is it actually ranks the Scarlet Knights offense ahead of Indiana's; those boys from Jersey do have a NFL wr better than Burbridge and prob at this point the 3rd best QB in the conf.  (if you roll all of OSU's QBs into 1 human)  S&P+ still deems Jersey Boys offense to be mediocre however while loving Indiana's.  Both those 2 teams however have horrible defenses by any measure.

Outside of those 2 offenses the only challenging unit left of remaining non OSU foes IMO will be PSU's D which matches up very well with UM's strengths - 3 terrors on their DL and non freshman in the secondary.  I expect a big pile of #M00P under the lights in Happy Valley.

EDIT - UM FEI "special teams efficiency" is ranked #1, and "field position advantage" is ranked #17.

 

  dFEI dS&P+   oFEI oS&P+
UM 3 1   54 50
OSU 20 14   33 16
MSU 27 32   13 34
NWestern 10 6   82 114
PSU 19 22   80 61
Minnesota 29 28   96 96
Maryland 74 68   100 98
Indiana 80 107   41 17
Rutgers 109 116   39 57
           
Nebraska 47 53   34 29
Wisconsin 32 8   48 64
Iowa 13 12   36 41
Purdue 88 80   101 104
Illinois 25 7   72 81
           
Utah 5 19   14 36
BYU 59 49   27 46
Oregon St 83 96   108 107
UNLV 108 84   112 112
           
ND 36 42   9 6
Bama 1 4   26 39
Stanford 56 40   2 10
LSU 26 33   4 7
TCU 70 55   7 3
Baylor 52 72   1 1
Arizona 89 113   15 21
Clemson 2 5   23 13
Oregon 76 92   19 26

 

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alum96

October 21st, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^

Definitions:

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency), explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82558

alum96

October 21st, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^

Ah I see it in the overall FEI page - just not updated on the individual ranking pages yet.

ST #1, Field position #17

I thought they might be flipped actually but yes that's good. 

Thank you Baxter and Blake and Pep. (and Jehu)

The MSU data is not a surprise - the one area advanced stats and NCAA stats won't differ much at all is special teams data since its stuff like kickoff returns, net punting, blocked kicks etc.  That was the decided advantage going into the game.  MSU has been horrid in everything all year except sigh...THAT.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82558

alum96

October 21st, 2015 at 11:45 AM ^

Don't know if ST will be #1 because our net punting #s are actually pretty low since Blake doesn't boom many.   (80 yarder the exception)  Until the past 2 weeks we were not doing that well in punt returns either (about 65th in NCAA)  The past 2 weeks have helped the punt return data for sure though but other teams have had more consistency in the punt return game.

The kickoff data has been good.  We have had so few kickoff returns due to other teams rarely scoring so Chesson's big run has given us a big boost.

They have added a field position measure this year and we could be top 5 there due to Blake's ability to punt inside the 15 so often. 

I assume both these ranks will be out later this week for the first time.

#Baxter

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82558

LSAClassOf2000

October 21st, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^

Even better, Baxter in under a year with just a few additions and scheme changes, so the future on special teams - which I think might be the most improved group in terms of average position change on individual metrics - really is a bright one. It's just nice to see that unit not be a liability as it has in the recent past at points. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130669

ijohnb

October 21st, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^

I know this is OT in this thread but I hate when people make an entire thread just for clarification so I am going to put it in this one because it is "rankings-related."  I am really confused on the BIG tie-breaker.  I was under the assumption that if MSU loses two games in division and we beat OSU we would be in because we won the head to head.  However, I read the post "Michigan still alive for BIG title game" and it looks like a three way tie would result in the Playoff rankings being used to determine who went.  Does that apply to a two way tie as well?  Like, if we beat OSU and State loses twice are we in because we won the head to head with the other one loss team or would they go to the Playoff rankings even in the case of just a two way tie?  I don't need a bunch of responses but if anybody has the answer to this I would be much obliged.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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JonnyHintz

October 21st, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^

If it's two way, head to head is what matters. But if we lose to State and beat OSU, and OSU beats State, we are all 1-1 against each other and the "head to head" just results in another tie. That's where the rankings come in as the tiebreaker.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48650

joeyb

October 21st, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^

No, rankings are the 4th tiebreaker. Head-to-head is first. So, MSU taking themselves out of the talk would be the best thing for us, but it's still theoretically possible, although highly improbable, for us to all be ranked in the top 10 and then have Michigan pass OSU and MSU after winning out and both of them losing in their last two games.

Joined: 10/12/2008

MGoPoints: 16869

BornInAA

October 21st, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^

Totaled and sorted

Clemson 43
Bama 70
LSU 70
Utah 74
OSU 83
ND 93
Iowa 102
MSU 106
UM 108
Stanford 108
Baylor 126
TCU 135
Wisconsin 152
Nebraska 163
BYU 181
PSU 182
Illinois 185
NWestern 212
Oregon 213
Arizona 238
Indiana 245
Minnesota 249
Rutgers 321
Maryland 340
Purdue 373
Oregon St 394
UNLV 416

 

Joined: 11/21/2009

MGoPoints: 14510

bronxblue

October 21st, 2015 at 11:22 PM ^

This largely makes sense, though the love for Clemson seems a bit high for me.  They beat ND with 4 TOs and a failed 2-point conversion at home.  I know the numbers look good, but they shouldn't be in spiting distance of Bama, IME.

Overall, though, I agree that FEI seems like a better metric because their SOS and possession-specific breakdowns seem to capture a better sense of a team.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171862