Plenty of information about covid is reliable. You just have to understand that all tests have a false-positive and false-negative rate and interpret the results with that in mind.
What expectations? This is what Michigan has always been - a top 15 team that can compete in with the top 5 every four years or so. It's just our bad luck that OSU has been in the top 3 for the past 20 years.
These things are really easy to look up. Only the player that receives the snap can throw it away:
The forward passer, to conserve yardage, throws the ball forward into an area where there is no eligible Team A receiver (A.R. 7-3-2:I) [Exception: If the forward passer is or has been outside the tackle box, he may throw the ball so that it crosses or lands beyond the neutral zone or neutral zone extended (Rule 2-19-3) or would have crossed the neutral zone if not touched by Team B. (A.R. 7-3-2:VIII-X) This applies only to the player who controls the snap or the resulting backward pass and does not relinquish possession to another player before throwing the forward pass.]
PENALTY – [f-h] Loss of down at the spot of the foul [S36 and S9]
Sorry, let me put it in terms you can understand: wahh wahh fire Harbaugh unexeptable Michigan is super duper special and deserves to win all the time.
It's crazy. Michigan is literally the youngest team in the country, playing their 3rd string QB, with injuries to their starting WR1, safety, left tackle, and right guard.
This is pretty close to the worst case scenario and we have a chance to go 9-3.
1. Harbough's first quarterback recruit is a redshirt freshman. Redshirt freshman are bad. Even if he never sees the field, one recruiting miss means nothing.
2. See 1
3. Every staff we complete against is also multi-million dollar, and we aren't super duper special.
Do you think Harbaugh isn't the best coach this university could possibly get?
2007 OSU game. Injured Henne in the rain throws 34 times. Hart is useless because he's injured and OSU's defense has done nothing but practice defending our single run play for a week. 91 total fucking yards.
I'm not worried that Indiana played us close. I'm worried that Ohio State can replicate Indiana's strategy with much better playmakers and a great running quarterback.
As you approach the speed of light, addition of velocities isn't linear.
According to the top train, they are moving 100 MPH relative to the 2nd to top train. However, they see themselves moving less than c (speed of ligh) relative to the bottom train. This is true no matter how many trains are in the stack - and every train still sees itself moving 100 MPH faster than the train below, and 100 MPH slower than the train above. With enough trains, you'll get arbitrarily close to the speed of light, but not quite there.
EDIT - first attempt was wrong, didn't account for gauge pressure vs actual pressure.
Actually, this is most likely what happened. Assume the balls measured 10.5 PSI at 45 F, they would measure 12.5 PSI at 85 F. The balls would be a little warm.
First of all, talk to the advising and admissions offices. They'll be very willing to answer any questions you may have.
Secondly, Calc III at Michigan is really shockingly difficult. I've seen many future engineers struggle with the material and the workload. Don't let that surprise you. Places like Washtenaw will be considerably easier. (In high school, I took Calc III at UM-Dearborn - it was a cakewalk compared to the Ann Arbor class).
Take a look at the exams for last semester's Calc II class to see the material you'll be expected to know. Much more difficult than the AP exam:
While I agree that running the ball on 4th and 2 might have been successfull less than 30% of the time, I believe there are less conservative playcalls that would have done better. Spreading the field and looking for a quick slant/hitch/out + have Devin scramble if nothing is open HAS to be at least 30% successful - I would suspect much more.
It's pretty telling that in 2008, that tire-fire of an offense with zero credible passing threat, our running backs never performed this terribly. Against Utah - the worst rushing game of the year - our backs still got 2.4 ypc. I just can't believe that the offensive talent level on this team is worse than 2008.
This play could so easily option off that slot LB. Have Funches run a slant or a hitch, give Gardner an actual read at the mesh point. If Gardner pulls on the second play, any throw to Funchess is at least 5 yards with a single safety to beat. There's got to be something in place to punish that blind aggression.
Alright, I put way too much effort into this, but it's an interesting question. Weighing all of those factors is difficult, so I looked at the results of previous years.
From 2005 to 2013, there have been 823 overtime drives. I looked at only the first drives of each overtime.
Scoring - 72%
TD - 44%
FG - 28%
Turnover - 14%
So Gibbons kick is 65% vs 72% playing normally. The chances are much closer than I thought they would be. Figure in that our offense was playing badly, Devin is turnover prone, and Gibbons is an above average kicker - the correct decision might have been the kick.
(A game ending pick 6 has only happened twice in the last 7 years - less than .5%. The games were Pitt vs Ohio 2005 and Vandy vs Tennessee 2011)
For an average college kicker, missing the both the 4th quarter + 1st OT FG is ~18%. Seriously, even with all that happened in this game, I think we win it 9 times out of 10.
I won't extrapolate Gibbons stats because of low sample sizes, but he is 6/11 from 40+ over the last 2 years (4/9 before this game).
Predicted points from from an average kicker during this game was 14.25, and Gibbons scored 12. He definitely performed below average, but not by much.
Risk can be quantified. "a FG wins it" - College kickers can hit a 40 yarder ~65% of the time. Why throw the ball? Because we shouldn't be so afraid to throw the ball that we accept a 35% chance at 0 points.
Sure, Gardner is a turnover machine - 7% of his throws get picked off. So give him some easy reads, get away from a run game that hasn't worked all night (does the reason really matter?) and go for the win. Or at the very least give poor Gibbons a better at the kick.
Borges isn't an idiot. He's been doing this for a long time. There's a lot of nuances to his playcalling, the things he did made sense at the time, there's a lot of logic to his decisions. He has a complete lack of understanding of statistics, though.
Running into a stacked box where you have 6 blockers for 6 defenders can be successful. You can call it "putting the players in a position to be succesful" . But it doesn't work out that way.
It only takes one unblocked man to stop one of these running plays at the line. Say your OLine is making blocks 90% of the time - your plays are still only 50% effective. Look at Saturday's game, and it's obvious that our Oline was much worse than 90%. And what's the upside? Perfect blocking gets us 5 yards. Add in underclassmen tight ends that can't block anything + losing our best player, then you have what happened Saturday - perfect blocking happens hardly ever, most runs get stopped at the line. Borges is calling plays like he expects the offensive line to execute - all of Borges's calls make sense if the offensive line executes - and it's absurd to think that the offensive line will execute. That's how you get 1 ypc on playcalling that "makes sense".
So get rid of useless tight ends, spread the field so you have to execute fewer blocks to be successful. You can say that's not Borges's philosophy - well I hate Borges's philosophy. Our super-manball Carr days averaged 4.5 ypc at best - that's the ceiling here. There's no reason for a team as talented as Michigan to settle for that.
Now, onto the overtime playcalling. You can say Borges was being "conservative". He wasn't. He was afraid to take a risk. Your goal in that situation is to maximize your chance of winning. Running three straight plays into a stacked box and settling for a 40 yard field goal = 65% chance of winning* in OT1. Throw a fade to Funchess, run something to the edge, have Gardner run it - ANYTHING but settling for 0 yards gained. Sure, having Gardner pass has a 10% chance of being picked off, but you're ALREADY at a 35% chance of scoring 0 points if you decide to play "conservative".
*(everyone that says Gibbons should have made that kick is wrong. It doesn't matter how many he kicked in a row, he's still a college kicker. anything else is gambler's fallacy bullshit).
For me it was the entire 2007 season. Going 8-4 with half your offense nfl-bound upper classmen is just horrible. We're never going to have more talent than that; that was the ceiling of our program under Lloyd and his refusal to do anything except run left. He took the chains off the offense against Florida and great things happened. It was depressing.
Usc and bama are going to be more talented. That's just the way recruiting goes. Yes, michigan can be successful with a vanilla pro-style offense. But not against more talented teams, not in bowls, and not against osu. If that's ok with you, then we should have kept Lloyd, and Hoke was a good hire. I really hope I'm wrong here, but I'm afraid that I'm not.
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Plenty of information about covid is reliable. You just have to understand that all tests have a false-positive and false-negative rate and interpret the results with that in mind.
The US rejected WHO test kits. We're way behind other developed nations in tests per capita. Sounds like a leadership failure to me.
While Joe Burrow did complete 76% of his passes, score 60 TDs, and win the Heisman, Alex Malzone was 0-4 last year for 0 yards. So pretty comparable.
What expectations? This is what Michigan has always been - a top 15 team that can compete in with the top 5 every four years or so. It's just our bad luck that OSU has been in the top 3 for the past 20 years.
These things are really easy to look up. Only the player that receives the snap can throw it away:
The forward passer, to conserve yardage, throws the ball forward into an area where there is no eligible Team A receiver (A.R. 7-3-2:I) [Exception: If the forward passer is or has been outside the tackle box, he may throw the ball so that it crosses or lands beyond the neutral zone or neutral zone extended (Rule 2-19-3) or would have crossed the neutral zone if not touched by Team B. (A.R. 7-3-2:VIII-X) This applies only to the player who controls the snap or the resulting backward pass and does not relinquish possession to another player before throwing the forward pass.]
PENALTY – [f-h] Loss of down at the spot of the foul [S36 and S9]
Sorry, let me put it in terms you can understand: wahh wahh fire Harbaugh unexeptable Michigan is super duper special and deserves to win all the time.
It's crazy. Michigan is literally the youngest team in the country, playing their 3rd string QB, with injuries to their starting WR1, safety, left tackle, and right guard.
This is pretty close to the worst case scenario and we have a chance to go 9-3.
I was more annoyed that they called a pass on 3rd and 6 from the Winconsin 40. I figure you run it there and get 2 plays to go 6 yards.
Because Mo Hurst can't cover slots.
Ricewood BBQ in Ann Arbor and it's not close. Unfortunately closed for the season.
It was definitely a good call. The ball is clearly on the ground and rolling.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/NQea9S7yPcY
Do you watch our cornerbacks play? They literally grab a handful of jersey every play.
1. Harbough's first quarterback recruit is a redshirt freshman. Redshirt freshman are bad. Even if he never sees the field, one recruiting miss means nothing.
2. See 1
3. Every staff we complete against is also multi-million dollar, and we aren't super duper special.
Do you think Harbaugh isn't the best coach this university could possibly get?
The only decent barbeque in the state is Ricewood - their brisket will blow your mind.
Actually Westside isn't bad either.
2007 OSU game. Injured Henne in the rain throws 34 times. Hart is useless because he's injured and OSU's defense has done nothing but practice defending our single run play for a week. 91 total fucking yards.
They're losing because they lack players at O-line, D-line, and safety
Because the rule is against "substitution with intent to deceive", not deception in general.
So Ohio State but better? We didn't fare well against good defenses with elite athletes.
I'm not worried that Indiana played us close. I'm worried that Ohio State can replicate Indiana's strategy with much better playmakers and a great running quarterback.
They're up, Michigan is #1
27-6
As you approach the speed of light, addition of velocities isn't linear.
According to the top train, they are moving 100 MPH relative to the 2nd to top train. However, they see themselves moving less than c (speed of ligh) relative to the bottom train. This is true no matter how many trains are in the stack - and every train still sees itself moving 100 MPH faster than the train below, and 100 MPH slower than the train above. With enough trains, you'll get arbitrarily close to the speed of light, but not quite there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_relativity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorentz_transformation
Ashley's had some last week. Great bar even if they don't have Hopslam.
EDIT - first attempt was wrong, didn't account for gauge pressure vs actual pressure.
Actually, this is most likely what happened. Assume the balls measured 10.5 PSI at 45 F, they would measure 12.5 PSI at 85 F. The balls would be a little warm.
Dammit. We beat the spread though.
Michigan has only been double-digit dogs 9 times since 1990:
I may have missed a few, here's the data:
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/teams/t…
Now we get to start a back that managed 3.1 ypc against Rutgers.
Not a chance. Do you remember how terrible those defenses were?
Yay.
Fage 4 life
Are there any specific rules in the NCAA that stop, say, a linebacker from lowering a shoulder into a reciever before the ball is thrown?
First of all, talk to the advising and admissions offices. They'll be very willing to answer any questions you may have.
Secondly, Calc III at Michigan is really shockingly difficult. I've seen many future engineers struggle with the material and the workload. Don't let that surprise you. Places like Washtenaw will be considerably easier. (In high school, I took Calc III at UM-Dearborn - it was a cakewalk compared to the Ann Arbor class).
Take a look at the exams for last semester's Calc II class to see the material you'll be expected to know. Much more difficult than the AP exam:
http://www.math.lsa.umich.edu/courses/116/index.html
Everything you should know about transfer credit:
http://www.lsa.umich.edu/students/academicsrequirements/academicpolicie…
Read this page about the math different math sequences:
http://www.lsa.umich.edu/cg/cg_results.aspx?termArray=f_14_2010&cgtype=…
Pretty charts are welcome, but not the background images
You're right and that's depressing.
While I agree that running the ball on 4th and 2 might have been successfull less than 30% of the time, I believe there are less conservative playcalls that would have done better. Spreading the field and looking for a quick slant/hitch/out + have Devin scramble if nothing is open HAS to be at least 30% successful - I would suspect much more.
Love the going for it, hate the play.
It's pretty telling that in 2008, that tire-fire of an offense with zero credible passing threat, our running backs never performed this terribly. Against Utah - the worst rushing game of the year - our backs still got 2.4 ypc. I just can't believe that the offensive talent level on this team is worse than 2008.
This play could so easily option off that slot LB. Have Funches run a slant or a hitch, give Gardner an actual read at the mesh point. If Gardner pulls on the second play, any throw to Funchess is at least 5 yards with a single safety to beat. There's got to be something in place to punish that blind aggression.
Alright, I put way too much effort into this, but it's an interesting question. Weighing all of those factors is difficult, so I looked at the results of previous years.
From 2005 to 2013, there have been 823 overtime drives. I looked at only the first drives of each overtime.
Scoring - 72%
TD - 44%
FG - 28%
Turnover - 14%
So Gibbons kick is 65% vs 72% playing normally. The chances are much closer than I thought they would be. Figure in that our offense was playing badly, Devin is turnover prone, and Gibbons is an above average kicker - the correct decision might have been the kick.
(A game ending pick 6 has only happened twice in the last 7 years - less than .5%. The games were Pitt vs Ohio 2005 and Vandy vs Tennessee 2011)
For an average college kicker, missing the both the 4th quarter + 1st OT FG is ~18%. Seriously, even with all that happened in this game, I think we win it 9 times out of 10.
I won't extrapolate Gibbons stats because of low sample sizes, but he is 6/11 from 40+ over the last 2 years (4/9 before this game).
Predicted points from from an average kicker during this game was 14.25, and Gibbons scored 12. He definitely performed below average, but not by much.
Risk can be quantified. "a FG wins it" - College kickers can hit a 40 yarder ~65% of the time. Why throw the ball? Because we shouldn't be so afraid to throw the ball that we accept a 35% chance at 0 points.
Sure, Gardner is a turnover machine - 7% of his throws get picked off. So give him some easy reads, get away from a run game that hasn't worked all night (does the reason really matter?) and go for the win. Or at the very least give poor Gibbons a better at the kick.
This is a great series.
Borges isn't an idiot. He's been doing this for a long time. There's a lot of nuances to his playcalling, the things he did made sense at the time, there's a lot of logic to his decisions. He has a complete lack of understanding of statistics, though.
Running into a stacked box where you have 6 blockers for 6 defenders can be successful. You can call it "putting the players in a position to be succesful" . But it doesn't work out that way.
It only takes one unblocked man to stop one of these running plays at the line. Say your OLine is making blocks 90% of the time - your plays are still only 50% effective. Look at Saturday's game, and it's obvious that our Oline was much worse than 90%. And what's the upside? Perfect blocking gets us 5 yards. Add in underclassmen tight ends that can't block anything + losing our best player, then you have what happened Saturday - perfect blocking happens hardly ever, most runs get stopped at the line. Borges is calling plays like he expects the offensive line to execute - all of Borges's calls make sense if the offensive line executes - and it's absurd to think that the offensive line will execute. That's how you get 1 ypc on playcalling that "makes sense".
So get rid of useless tight ends, spread the field so you have to execute fewer blocks to be successful. You can say that's not Borges's philosophy - well I hate Borges's philosophy. Our super-manball Carr days averaged 4.5 ypc at best - that's the ceiling here. There's no reason for a team as talented as Michigan to settle for that.
Now, onto the overtime playcalling. You can say Borges was being "conservative". He wasn't. He was afraid to take a risk. Your goal in that situation is to maximize your chance of winning. Running three straight plays into a stacked box and settling for a 40 yard field goal = 65% chance of winning* in OT1. Throw a fade to Funchess, run something to the edge, have Gardner run it - ANYTHING but settling for 0 yards gained. Sure, having Gardner pass has a 10% chance of being picked off, but you're ALREADY at a 35% chance of scoring 0 points if you decide to play "conservative".
*(everyone that says Gibbons should have made that kick is wrong. It doesn't matter how many he kicked in a row, he's still a college kicker. anything else is gambler's fallacy bullshit).
198 rushing
34-14 Michigan
198 rushing yards
34-13 michigan
If Georgia beat LSU, it would still be LSU-Bama in the NC game, then Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Explain yourself. Data goes in, rankings come out. Where is the bias?
853
At least I have chicken
For me it was the entire 2007 season. Going 8-4 with half your offense nfl-bound upper classmen is just horrible. We're never going to have more talent than that; that was the ceiling of our program under Lloyd and his refusal to do anything except run left. He took the chains off the offense against Florida and great things happened. It was depressing.
Usc and bama are going to be more talented. That's just the way recruiting goes. Yes, michigan can be successful with a vanilla pro-style offense. But not against more talented teams, not in bowls, and not against osu. If that's ok with you, then we should have kept Lloyd, and Hoke was a good hire. I really hope I'm wrong here, but I'm afraid that I'm not.
Let's not take cheap shots at Drew Sharp's mom. She's been so good to us all...