FEI 2017 Week 4 Ratings (Michigan #9)

Submitted by Indonacious on

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency in FBS games. Preseason projected ratings are a function of five-year program ratings, recent recruiting success, and returning offensive and defensive experience, and account for 43 percent of this week's ratings.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2017/fei-week-4-ratings

Notables:

8 OSU
9 Michigan
10 PSU
11 ND
15 Wisconsin
21 Florida
29 Minnesota
41 MSU
48 Iowa
56 Indiana
65 Cincinnati 
81 Purdue
82 Air Force
85 Maryland
98 Rutgers

Interesting other tidbits from the article regarding MSU-ND:

"This game was a great example of several of the steps I take when breaking down possession data. My first step is to discard garbage time data altogether, and in this instance, my numbers don't count any of the drives recorded after 6:28 left in the third quarter. At that point in the game, Notre Dame held a 35-10 lead and had just forced a Michigan State punt. By eliminating from consideration every drive after that point, I'm eliminating some of Michigan State's most "effective" drives in terms of yards accumulated -- 19 plays, 81 yards, and a turnover on downs; seven plays, 71 yards, and touchdown with around three minutes left in the game; nine plays, 82 yards as time expired.

Over the whole game, the Spartans' offensive drives traversed nearly 500 yards, but nearly half of that came in garbage time. Notre Dame accumulated 73 percent of its yardage prior to garbage time. Even before we consider the impact of turnovers, the shift in perspective on the success each team had moving the ball in non-garbage time is significant, and highlights how misleading overall yardage and first down totals can be.

That said, the Irish were the beneficiary of three turnovers in their favor, and the value of two of them in particular was significant... Against Michigan State, however, Notre Dame generated a total of 18.2 points in field position and scoring value on three turnovers, a 50 percent increase in value over what was expected. That's because two of the turnovers were exceptionally noteworthy in value lost and generated."

 

NittanyFan

September 27th, 2017 at 11:19 PM ^

FEI drive efficiency and S&P+ more individual play result driven, of course.

Not saying either metric is better than the other.  There's a philosophical argument to be made either way.  But TCU and Wisconsin stick out to me.  TCU #17 in S&P+ and #4 in FEI.  Wisconsin is the converse: #5 in S&P+ but #15 in FEI.

rice4114

September 28th, 2017 at 3:47 AM ^

At what point is garbage time turned into-wholly crap they are coming back and making a game of it?

Of course UCLAs offensive output didnt count as it was garbage time vs Texas A And M until it wasnt. At what point can garbage time be transferred into meaningful yardage?