ESPN Playoff Predictor gives over 50% chance to UM making playoff with one loss
November 8th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
We should have just kept the game against UCLA that we already had on the schedule.
Would that have changed anything? Tennessee’s win over Bama still trumps that (since now we’re talking about a 2-loss UCLA).
Fact of the matter is the SEC will be first in line for an at-large bid.
November 8th, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^
It would have changed the season long narrative that we didn't play anyone, but who knows if that makes a difference. Semi-related though, one thing it for sure would have changed would have been making one Saturday in September more fun - that uconn game day was pretty hard to get fired up about.
November 8th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
All we need for a couple more weekends like last weekend to shake things up.
The Big 12 has only one team with less than three losses (TCU). They've been playing with fire and no one would be surprised to see someone else win the conference.
The Pac 12 has 1-loss Oregon, USC and UCLA, but 2-loss Utah is hanging out there with a tiebreaker over USC and a game at Oregon next weekend.
The ACC is a disrespected mess, and deservedly so. UNC's defense won't get them past Wake Forest this weekend. Clemson played so badly, that I don't know if they have another good win out there that can push them back into the top 4.
So it's not impossible for those conferences to eliminate themselves with a 2-loss conference champ. I think only SEC will be allowed a 2-loss champ into the CFP.
November 8th, 2022 at 6:12 AM ^
I don't buy it. We likely have to beat OSU.
- Georgia is punching their ticket.
- If OSU wins out and beats us they are in.
- Tennessee's remaining games are very winnable and they don't have to play in the SEC championship. Lost to Georgia but not demolished.
- TCU could very well win out.
- Oregon could win out and looks very good now. Got demolished by Georgia. First game of the season - I expect some recency bias in rankings.
I'd expect OSU to be the #2 team in the final rankings if they beat us (just don't see Georgia losing). Therefore, I doubt a Michigan loss to OSU would be seen as a better loss than Tennessee's to Georgia. A Michigan loss to OSU should be considered a better loss than Oregon's loss, but there is a strong preference to include conference champs. TCU is a bit of a wild card, but I'd expect them to get in if they win out. It is hard to see how an undefeated Power 5 champ is getting locked out of the playoffs.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:02 AM ^
Right - TCU and Oregon would need to lose and even then, USC could get in
November 8th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^
We could win against OSU but lose in the conference championship game. In this scenario, our odds would be high to still make the playoff, especially if it's a rematch against Illinois and we are 1-1 against them.
Tennessee very much got demolished by Georgia, regardless of what the final score shows.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
there is a strong preference to include conference champs
Unless it's an SEC team then the rules change for them
November 8th, 2022 at 12:08 PM ^
OSU made it in 2016.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
TCU is an underdog this week, will likely be a pick'em or small underdog next week, will be a single digit favorite against ISU, and would likely be close to a pick'em in the Big 12 championship. It's less than 10% they remain undefeated.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
1-3, I agree.
UM needs the B12 to have a two loss champ which is fairly likely to happen. TCU is losing at least one of the Texas or Baylor games and then will be underdogs in the B12 title game.
I think Michigan could get in over a one loss Oregon or Clemson given the nature of those two teams losses if Michigan loses close. Better yet if P12 and ACC have two loss winners.
November 8th, 2022 at 6:42 AM ^
So many things completely out of our control have to go just right for a one-loss Michigan to get in that it’s not worth cogitating about.
November 8th, 2022 at 6:55 AM ^
It think it would take some extraordinary circumstances for the committee to take 2 SEC AND 2 B1G teams for the playoffs. Are they really going to shut out all but 2 conferences? I'm not talking about who actually deserves it - that probably isn't the most important point even though it should be.
It just sends a terrible message to the rest of college football and I don't think they would have the courage to send that message - especially since some of them have ties to those other conferences.
The only way I see it is if all other conference champs have 2 losses which doesn't seem very likely to me. For us specifically, I think there is virtually zero chance of getting in if we lose to OSU and Tenn wins out. If we lose, it's either us OR Tenn - not AND.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
I don't necessarily disagree. Best thing for UMs chances would be Tennessee losing to South Carolina.
November 8th, 2022 at 7:22 AM ^
50% of the time it works every time
November 8th, 2022 at 8:11 AM ^
If Michigan plays them close and the game is decided by a FG they’ll make it. If Michigan gets blown out they won’t.
Win. The. Game.
November 8th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^
You could tell me that some intern is just inventing numbers for these articles, and I'd completely believe it.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
Making the playoff is cool and all, but I'd much rather beat OSU.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:22 AM ^
There will only be one B1G team in the playoffs and it will be U of M.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
I can’t take this thing seriously when it gives Bama a 16% chance and LSU only 5%.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
I never wanted to say it out loud but if we lose to Illinois and then beat ohio and win the B1G championship then they would almost have to put us in.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:25 AM ^
this is the the way a one loss michigan gets in.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
I think the chances for Michigan to reach the playoff with one loss at 50% is high.
Undefeated Power 5 conference champs - will make the playoff, and they should. The CFP Selection Committee, IMO, does have consistent criteria for selection, and I believe this is (and has been) nothing but a beauty contest since the CFP, and its predecessor the BS (oops, BCS), began.
So, what might happen?
ACC - the only way they should even think about being considered is if North Carolina wins out, including a win over Clemson in the ACC CCG. But, in that case - North Carolina would be a one loss Power 5 conference champion, that lost at home to Notre Dame (a three, or more, loss team). SO, the ACC is "out" - nothing can bring them back in.
In the SEC. Georgia could win out - and, deservedly, they would be one of the four teams selected. An SEC "wrinkle" would be that Georgia reaches the SEC CCG, but loses it to a team like LSU. If LSU wins the SEC CCG, it's hard to believe that a one loss Georgia would be left out of the CFP - but, it would (or should) remove Tennessee from the CFP discussion.
What happens in the Big 12 and Pac-12? An undefeated TCU should be in. Now, if the Horned Frogs fall this weekend against Texas, or later this season - as in the Big 12 CCG, you would expect they and the Big 12 would be on the outside looking in. In the Pac-12, the scenarios would be a one loss USC or Oregon creating noticeable conversation and discussion. A LOT to be played in the Pac-12.
Which leads us to the B1G. I think it's pretty straightforward. An undefeated B1G champion is in the CFP. A one loss team that neither wins its division, nor the conference - is put into a pool with a few other one loss teams - and, having seen the CFP Selection Committee over the years - anything could happen.
And tonight - anything that include Tennessee in the Top 4 is a travesty.
Go Blue!
November 8th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
Remember - this is the same CFP Selection Committee that, one week ago, thought Clemson was the #4 team in the country.
This Selection Committee is supposedly knowledgeable about college football; however, it seems more than fair to question their acumen.
Yes, I know this is a perspective from eSECpn - but, it also seems they are trying to predict the CFP Selection Committee. So, it may not be the "in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king", I wonder what the saying is if you're actually "blind" in the land of the blind.