Early Line: OSU -6 Over UM
November 17th, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
My heart and my head want to make two very different bets.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
Me too. And my penis wants an 8-game parlay with this month’s mortgage payment, but I ignore him.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
I guess that's why you are "penny-wise".
November 18th, 2021 at 12:53 AM ^
I refer to my penis as "she/her". I don't know why. And I'd prefer you not ask. It's just me being me.
All that said, I will take Michigan all day and every day to cover -6. Give me the Michigan ML. Winning streaks end. This is the year.
November 18th, 2021 at 4:13 PM ^
Bold statement there, Cotton
November 19th, 2021 at 1:26 AM ^
Going against the trend pays 1 out of 17 times (or possibly much worse)
Going with the trend pays 12,13,14,15 out of 17 times depending on when you start
Someone told me that a long time ago and it stuck with me.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^
I was thinking 10. Nice.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
$$$$$$$$
November 17th, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
OSU -19 over MSU. I guess people aren't buying that whole head to head thing.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
Also elite pass offense vs terrible pass defense. It's a terrible matchup for them
November 17th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
Unless Day calls off the dogs I fully expect Stroud to pass for 600 yards against that secondary.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:23 PM ^
Get it out of his system and regress back to (below) the mean. Hopefully his arm is sore from all that chucking downfield.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
This is the worst possible matchup imaginable for MSU. They have the worst pass defense in America. The worst. And it’s going up against arguably the best and certainly most talented passing offense. If Stroud throws for anything less than 400 yards I will be shocked.
The only way MSU wins this game is clock control, dominating TOP and Walker having a Biakabatuka-esque stat line. Which is unlikely since OSU has a great run defense.
I think OSU covers and then some.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:43 PM ^
If I were Mel Tucker's agent I'd be telling him to sign that bazillion dollar contract extension before the next two weekends. MSU is going to get smoked by OSU and then probably beat by PSU. The refs won't bail them out of either of those games.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:06 PM ^
Should be noted OSU hosts MSU and Michigan hosts OSU so that's about a 6-8 point swing (i.e. OSU would be favored by about 16 over MSU on a neutral field and by about 9 over Michigan on a neutral field).
And yes, Michigan would be favored by 6-7 over MSU on a neutral field if they played again. I don't think anyone, even most of the "head-to-head" people, would deny that.
Their point, which is valid, is why even play the games if actually winning them doesn't matter? If it's just who would be favored, it diminishes the actual W/Ls that occur on the field.
I don't think anyone should care much about where Michigan and MSU are ranked at this point because they're out of the top 4 and have plenty of football left, but I'm glad the committee has Oregon ahead of OSU and I would expect head-to-head to matter a lot if teams have the same record and are relatively comparable on the year.
November 18th, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
Their point, which is valid, is why even play the games if actually winning them doesn't matter? If it's just who would be favored, it diminishes the actual W/Ls that occur on the field.
This is a dumb argument. The game did matter. If MSU smoked Michigan, the rankings would be different. If MSU lost to Michigan, the rankings would be different. If MSU didn't play Michigan, the rankings would be different. If MSU played a DIII school and won instead of barely beating Michigan, the rankings would be different.
The game mattered, it's just that instead of convincingly beating Michigan, they barely beat Michigan, at home field, in a controversial game. So, they invited people to interpret the results subjectively in an equivocal manner. If they don't like that, fucking play better.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:31 PM ^
we shouldn't have to be the only school with a coach that loses after a big contract extension womp womp
November 18th, 2021 at 12:00 AM ^
Hush before Warde gives Harbaugh an extension next week.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
That seems crazy low. I would've expected something like -13
November 17th, 2021 at 7:03 PM ^
That's what it would be at OSU. 9-10 on neutral. 6ish at Michigan. That could change this weekend if either team performs significantly different than expectations.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
Go Blue. Beat Maryland.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:15 PM ^
November 17th, 2021 at 7:24 PM ^
#NoTrapGames
November 17th, 2021 at 5:58 PM ^
The -6 is equal to the Sagarin predictor adjusted for home-field advantage, which is usually very close to the Vegas line.
Historically, 6 point underdogs win 33% of the time, but this doesn't take into account how OSU spends their entire season (and off-season) focusing on Michigan.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:09 PM ^
Yep, it's pretty much the same with FPI too. The lines tend to be very close to the statistical profiles, barring major injuries or other circumstances.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:27 PM ^
33% of the time it works every time
November 17th, 2021 at 6:00 PM ^
I'll take OSU minus 19 over the Spartans. I think UM pulls out an upset.
Book it.
(NO, don't book it!!! lol as the kids say)
November 17th, 2021 at 11:27 PM ^
This is what my kids say....
November 18th, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
A teenager on a sports page told me I was old some 20 years ago. Oh, well.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:04 PM ^
I’m sorry but that’s ridiculously low.
November 18th, 2021 at 8:34 AM ^
If/when OSU drills MSU, it'll be higher. Once it goes over 7, they'll attract some M money
November 17th, 2021 at 6:06 PM ^
That is incredibly low. At least lower than I expected.
I honestly thought -10 would’ve been a conservative and reasonable line. Vegas has more faith than I do, apparently.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
It's not a friendly set up for OSU. They can't just look past their opponent. They will have to devote resources to seriously game planning against sparty.
Couple that with the game being in Ann Arbor, Michigan has a bit of an advantage.
-6 seems reasonable right now.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:26 PM ^
Ding ding ding. Although for a different reason. It’s senior day this Saturday for OSU against a good Sparty team so there will be emotions and a lot of focus. I don’t think there will be an emotional letdown against you guys, but this would be a perfect storm for it.
November 18th, 2021 at 8:38 AM ^
Except for if they lose to Sparty, OSU could lose the spot at Indy, even if they win next week. I can't imagine a letdown. I think they'll get up and coast this week.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:51 PM ^
Seems fair. If not for our recent inability to play with them it would likely be more like -2 or -3.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^
Right. If U-M was say, even 3-7 against OSU the last 10 years, this line would be more like Bucks -2.
Lots of folk, bettors included, need to see U-M actually do it before they'll believe it or "invest" in it. Doubting Thomas, so to speak. I'm in that camp too, honestly.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:06 PM ^
Mostly unrelated but didn't want to start a new thread. Is Ohio State's rush defense that good? I have read this multiple times but is it actually good or is it a product of them getting leads/playing bad running teams. (full disclosure: I have not watched them this year)
Minnesota rushed for almost 200, Oregon rushed for over 250.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:18 PM ^
Good question although I'm not sure how good that good is. They haven't played a great running team since Oregon but they held:
Nebraska to 3.3 ypc which was a little better than Michigan's 4.4
Rutgers to 3.6 ypc which was a little better than Michigan's 4.7
and PSU to 1.1 ypc (!!!) which was a lot better than Michigan's 2.6 ypc and looks even better when you take out Michigan's sacks and fake kick fumbles. OSU allowed 2.0 ypc to RBs, Michigan allowed 4.4 ypc.
So yeah, their run D appears to have gotten a lot better. We'll find out more Saturday. Their pass defense has looked pretty weak (Clifford and O'Connell both lit them up, albeit on moderate ypa).
November 17th, 2021 at 7:37 PM ^
Excellent point. 13th in rushing defense for OSU, raw ncaa stat but about 30th in FEI (you pick which column I should consult.) BUT, BUT, BUT 94th in 3rd down conversion stop rate about 40% and same for 4th down. Actually, MSU's run game doesn't look so great overall as rushing offense is only 28th nationally (raw ncaa stat) while FEI is about the same. I don't see a breakthrough for MSU but I do think that MSU plays the moral victory with dignity card and scores twice in the 4th to cover the spread.
Just like three years ago, all these numbers make Michigan look good and we know what happened anyway.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:29 PM ^
Both of those games were before Coombs got demoted. Oregon was all on Coombs, and Minnesota was a combo of Coombs and Mo Ibrahim being an absolute animal. You are correct though. OSU definitely hasn’t faced a true road-grating team since then so it’ll be interesting.
November 18th, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
Road grading
November 17th, 2021 at 7:22 PM ^
Remember, the line is not an indication of how Vegas sees the game turning out. The line is set to balance betting on both sides.
So, if public opinion is that we are never going to beat OSU, then that is worth a few extra points on their side to balance out the betting. Because face it, even most Michigan fans wouldn't bet on us right now without getting a few points.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
I am so, so tired of having this argument. Yes, Vegas wants the juice and low risk, with equal money on both sides. And what is the very best way to do that? Set an opening line you think is as close to how the actual game will turn out, and then adjust it based on which way the money is flowing. So yes, the opening lines are computer-algorithm-generated and human-adjusted expectations about the ACTUAL FINAL SCORE, otherwise they would INCREASE THEIR EXPOSURE AND RISK...
November 17th, 2021 at 7:45 PM ^
Thank you. I had typed a similar response but deleted it. (Yours is better anyway.)
November 17th, 2021 at 8:03 PM ^
The Vegas sportsbooks were an amenity vs. a big revenue generator as recently as 20 years ago. They'd generate some revenue --- but it was a rounding error versus what they got off the slots and tables.
It's much much more of a revenue generator now. Which means, of course, they're less risk tolerant.
They still have exposure - mainly due to future bets. The 1999 Rams is the most infamous example. Some folks got them after Trent Green's injury at 200-1!!!!! Chad Millman wrote a book about the Vegas sportsbooks in that era: an anecdote from that book, the money lines set by the casinos for Rams' 1999-2000 playoff opponents were slightly more favorable than they would have been otherwise (a "quasi-lay off" being done by the casinos to reduce exposure a bit).
November 17th, 2021 at 7:30 PM ^
Michigan to straight win. I am putting $1000 or more on it.
I don't think it will be that close, actually. OSU is going to get punched in the mouth.
Prediction: UM 38, OSU 21.
A new era is born: Harbaugh 2.0.
November 17th, 2021 at 8:06 PM ^
Prediction: UM 38, OSU 21.
Whatever it is you're having, I'll have some of it too. Will I have a headache in the morning?
November 17th, 2021 at 8:19 PM ^
You may need to have your stomach pumped.