Draft Kings - Football Win Totals / B1G Champ
Draft Kings has released their 2021 football odds. UM has a projected win total of 8 games. OSU is -125 to win the conference, with UM and PSU having the second best odds at +700, followed by Wisc at +800. The longshot is Illinois at +10,000.
Using 8 wins as the line, I’d take the under as I see a 7 win season, what would you take with this line?
Seems like the easiest under to predict. Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Indiana are 4 likely losses right there, let alone the potential for more vs Washington and even Michigan State (again). Rather bet on the worst and be pleasantly surprised than bet on the over and be doubly disappointed.
Why is Indiana a for sure loss?
The “experts” have been hyping the Hoosiers to the moon over the off season. Probably more IU players in the pre-season B1G teams lists than M.
Most of these predictions center around slurping on Penix (at QB).
He has shown flashes of being (one of) the top QB in the B1G this year but is injury-prone. I think IU returns a lot of bodies from 2020 but lost quite a bit of the offensive playmakers and a few defensive stars. (Pretty sure they did pick up a “top” RB in the portal from USC.)
"Slurping on Penix" is the album drop of 2021 from what i hear
The Michigan-Indiana 2021 Talent Comparison (Based on Past Performance*)
Michigan has no returning players who were named to one of the three 2020 all-conference teams, but four returning defensive players who received honorable mention on the 2020 all-conference teams: S Dax Hill - Coaches, Media; LB Michael Barrett - Media; S Brad Hawkins - Media and two returning offensive players who received honorable mention on the 2020 all-conference teams: RB Hassan Haskins - Coaches, Media and OL Andrew Stueber - Coaches.
Indiana has three returning offensive players who were named to one of the three 2020 all-conference teams, QB Michael Penix -2 Coaches and Media, WR Ty Fryfogle - 1 Media, 2 Coaches; TE Peyton Hendershot - 3 Coaches and Media; four returning defensive players who were named to one of the three 2020 all-conference teams, LB Micah McFadden - 1 Coaches and Media; DBs Tiawan Mullen - 1 Media, 2 Coaches; Jaylin Williams - 2 Coaches and Media; and DB Devon Matthews - 3 Coaches and Media; and one returning defensive player who received honorable mention, LB Cam Jones - Coaches and Media.
On the way-too–early pre-season all-conference teams selected by Athlon Sports, Ohio State (13), Wisconsin (11), Iowa (11), Penn State (10) and Indiana (10) are the only teams with at least ten players selected for the four all-conference teams.
Michigan has one first-teamer (DL Aidan Hutchinson), four third-teamers (S Dax Hill, WR Ronnie Bell, RB Hassan Haskins and OL Andrew Stueber) and two fourth-teamers (LB Josh Ross, P Brad Robbins).
Indiana has four first-teamers (QB Michael Penix, LB Micah McFadden, CB Tiawan Mullen, K Charles Campbell), two second-teamers (TE Peyton Hendershot, WR Ty Fryfogle), three third-teamers (CB Jaylin Williams, S Devon Matthews, PR D. J. Matthews) and one fourth-teamer (OL Caleb Jones).
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* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Why is Indiana a for sure loss?
I mean, did you watch that game last year? They whooped us pretty bad and it was never really that close. And from what I've vaguely seen on the interwebz, they return a lot of that team that went 6-1 and gave Ohio State their biggest challenge outside of the CFP. We return, uh, most of last year's team minus the NFL tackle, a first round DE, one of our 2 starting RB's and various other pieces. Our QB isn't decided while they have a 3 or 4 year starting coming back (assuming he rehabs on schedule). Our defense is a giant blinking question mark coming off a year when they couldn't stop the pass to save their lives. Kwity and McGrone are gone, Josh Ross didn't look great last year, the corners are still a concern even if we don't leave them on an island all the time this year. Indiana will be legit and we will be....TBD.
That's why I consider it among the sure losses
Your username should be Charmin
Cuz you soft as fuck
I've heard more ferocious insults from my 5 year old nephew. That you decided to post it is more embarrassing than our defensive effort vs Michigan State last year
Of all of the people you name that we "lost", none of them were healthy for 6 games last year. Michigan returns a lot of players from last year. A year which was chaos from the start, Michigan took every injury imaginable, and didn't have a healthy QB after game 2.
And....guys get better! We have a lot of 4* talent on this roster that is going to improve. I would bet Michigan is a 4-5 pt favorite against IU at home.
Very close MN, Draft Kings has UM -3.5 vs IU and it is a home game.
Slow down on that Kool-aide. You're libel to explode.
Seems like the easiest under to predict...exactly why we should feel good about the over.
Erase 2020 from your mind. We were playing with a skeleton crew team. Injuries, opt outs, no spring and limited fall camp for a young team.
I would say Ohio State is the only for sure loss. Wisconsin is likely a loss but they open with Penn State and have to go to South Bend the week before we play them. Michigan at least has a shot there.
Penn State on the road at night in a white out is likely a loss too, but let’s not pretend they are an unbeatable juggernaut. Our roster is as talented as theirs.
Indiana has beaten Michigan once in the last 30 years and it was during covid when we were missing about a third or more of our starters. Give our staff a full spring, summer, and fall camp to improve and I like our chances. Especially with Penix trying to come back from a torn knee.
UW has already lost a couple of starters for the year (expected stars of the team) and will probably have a down year. I think we can win that one.
If you look at Michigan’s down year in 2020, people aren’t expecting much, but I don’t think our team will look anything like what we saw last year. When a wager or line looks too good to be true, it probably is and that means the experts probably know something we don’t. I’m taking the over.
I think 8 wins is most likely, but would err on 9 wins vs 7 if I had to choose.
The competition to be the most pessimistic in the comments will be a sight to behold.
I know this was a tongue in cheek comment but given what we've seen and the results this program has achieved under Harbaugh (or rather lack thereof relative to expectations), I see it less as pessimism at this point and moreso as just being realistic about this program's capabilities.
Breaking in a new defense, no depth anywhere on that side of the ball (especially on the line), QB situation is still shaky, and no proven offensive playmakers aside from maybe Haskins or Ronnie Bell. And while they're both good, I'm not sure either falls under the category of playmaker.
Past performance is usually indicative of future results. Maybe something changes this year. Maybe Cade becomes the kind of QB we all thought Harbaugh would develop here, maybe the offense light bulb finally goes on, maybe the defense picks things up quickly. But that's a whole lot of ifs.
Losing 5 to 6 games next season is a very realistic outcome.
If past results predict the future then it will go like this.
Cade will get worse as the season progresses
Backup will come in and look pretty solid but then get worse
Cade will transfer and our fanbase will wonder what would he have looked like if he didnt have that lingering injury
his replacement will look worse and worse as time goes on and a lingering injury will keep him from being his best
But also his backup will have a lingering injury
Hopefully by 2028 Gattis will have a healthy starter and Harbaugh will stop holding him back so he can prove how good he is
The sad part is that I could truly envision every single one of those items happening. The Michigan football program has become painfully predictable in so many aspects over the last 10-15 years.
I don't gamble, so I'd take the over.
The line should be 7.5, I don’t see why they ever use an even number for O/U. That being said I would take the under because you know they’re going to lose the obvious games then add in one they absolutely shouldn’t lose. It’s more surprising that UM has the second best odds to win the conference, huh?
Good news Michigan fans, I’m always wrong about this stuff.
I don’t see why they ever use an even number for O/U
Risk management from the sportsbook
I guess I can see that. As a bettor it seems boring though.
If you see 7.5 as a more realistic line that would suggest putting strong money on the under, right? Your two most likely scenarios are seven or eight wins - one you win the other you push.
Cheers.
If you truly think it’s going to be 8 wins there is zero point in betting it. So under is really the only way to bet this.
Can almost double your money betting on OSU. That's the easiest bet I've ever seen. They're loaded everywhere and you know whichever QB they plug in is gonna be elite. And even if he's average, their WR corps is so good that it won't matter.
Wisconsin looks like the best value pick. They have the 2nd best chance of winning the conference albeit probably a slim chance still. If Mertz lives up to his talent and OSU's QB somehow flounders then they'll be right there.
Disagree that OSU is that easy a pick. If this were about just getting to conference title game, sure. But they also have to win that game, and enough can go wrong that you’re not getting a great return on a bet 6 months out vs. an unknown opponent with an unknown injury situation, even if you assume they’re a lock to make it to that game.
They haven't lost a conference title game since 2013. They've been close a couple times but they've always found a way to pull it out. I conceded that Wisconsin could pull it out if some things go wrong for OSU but those things never seem to go wrong for them so I'll take OSU until proven otherwise.
Ohio State has won their last 8 against Wisconsin with some absolute slaughters among those 8. Wisconsin ain't beating Ohio State. OSU will only lose a game if they come unprepared to a game.
They were at -110 a couple months ago and I put $25 on them as a misery hedge. I'm not a big bettor though. Usually only bet $5 on individual games.
Under all day. Bet the farm.
Shocked that OSU is -125. Seems like free money, or maybe that’s just based on what feels like a decade + of ‘not in the face’ style beatdowns
Michigan having the second-best odds of winning the conference title doesn't really match what seems to be the prevailing opinion in the CFB world that Harbaugh is essentially a dead man walking.
Has everything to do with Michigan having a large fanbase consisting of a lot of suckers. No other explanation for Michigan having better odds than Wisconsin. Not only is Wisconsin better but they have a much easier path to the conference title game.
Dead man walking?
Ever paid attention to college football sports betting before? Michigan always gets optimistic odds. Enough Wolverine fans are eager to throw their money away every year to bump those numbers.
Which, in turn, makes it so Michigan is never an "underdog", unless they have no business winning the game.
If we go .500 or better, I think it's possible that Jim could be our coach again in 22'. Because, if you want to fire Jim, you have to have a quality replacement in mind and, as we've seen, we could do a LOT worse than Jim.
My hope is that last year was our low point and that Jim and team are going to come out this year and play MUCH better. If they do, I think 8-9 wins is very doable.
Does it state that the win total does not include the bowl game?
That’s what I was wondering as well. If this is strictly regular season, then im taking the under. If it includes a bowl game, then I could see 8-5.
Id still take the under tho.
Yes, these are regular season games only. No bowl games.
8 seems right on the number. I think 9 is more likely than 7 but I don't think it would be much different in terms of assessing the overall quality of the team.
Easy under. 7 looks far more likely than 9.
The sportsbooks notoriously overrate us because they know there are a lot of Michigan fan betters that overvalue our win total projection.
It's about a game or a game and a half off. I'd be thrilled with 8 wins. I'm expecting 6.
Exactly
*Bettors
Under, 7 seems most like the most likely outcome.
Michigan having the second best odds to win the conference says a lot about what Vegas thinks of the rest of the Big Ten sans OSU.
And what it says is they don't think very highly of anyone outside of Columbus.
I see somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5, so under.
With the hire of Clinkscale and the revamp of the recruiting department, my outlook for the team has improved, but not for 2021. '22 and beyond should be better, even with Harbaugh at the helm.
? the under.
Remember folks... If they win 8 games its a push.
FUCKING HAMMER THE UNDER.
We are finally solid at QB... and gone is the gimmick defense that works elsewhere but the beefy Big Ten. We are winning 10 games.