COVID - Michigan's curve flattening?

Submitted by jmblue on April 9th, 2020 at 3:38 PM

After confirmed cases had been increasing in the neighborhood of 1500-1700 daily, yesterday 1376 new cases were announced and today, 1158.

This could be a reporting lag, but that tends to happen more on weekends.  Wednesday/Thursday are generally not days when you see a drop.  At this point we should start to see the effects of social distancing on the number of new cases.  Henry Ford system officials are reporting that they are now discharging more patients than they are admitting to the ER.  So there are some encouraging signs.

The curve of deaths is always behind that of cases though, so today was not good on that front (117) and we'll probably have more days of 100+ to come.

remdog

April 9th, 2020 at 9:03 PM ^

I'm an ER doc in SE Michigan. Yes, there are some encouraging trends from a hospital caseload standpoint and daily confirmed cases/deaths standpoint.  UofM just adjusted their model for an earlier peak.  I can only hope we peaked on daily cases but I'm not certain yet.  I follow the numbers every day.  Regardless, even if we seem to be getting past the worst, we have to keep following precautions/social distancing with or without a lockdown to keep it under control.  

Njia

April 9th, 2020 at 9:47 PM ^

Thanks for everything you do, Doc. One of my very closest friends (his wife is my son's Godmother, and I was his best man) is a surgeon at Henry Ford. He was pressed into service in the ICU last week. When I asked how he was holding up this week, he said that it was like swimming in a shark tank, and everything around you is dangerous.

USMC 1371

April 10th, 2020 at 6:47 PM ^

Thank you for what you do. Unfortunately some people like a coworker of mine still thinks this is a hoax. It really get tiring trying to explain what’s going on in the hospitals on the east side of the state. He says the emergency and IC rooms are not full and no more people are dying in Detroit than on a normal day. Flu kills more......blah blah. I really hate working with uneducated people.

The Mad Hatter

April 9th, 2020 at 11:22 PM ^

I honestly don't understand wtf the hurry is? Unemployment benefits were bumped up to around $900 per week for the next few months, so the people that have been laid off should be fine.

Business owner? Guess you should have saved more money for a rainy day.

The rest of us are working from home, earning our usual wages, and not spending nearly as much since we never leave the house.

 

Njia

April 10th, 2020 at 7:20 AM ^

That’s pretty cynical (which I can be persuaded to endorse). But I don’t think it’s as easy as saying that we are all just whiny. I think the underlying issue is more about quality of life. Being told that I have to stay home for some length of time is fine for me, and probably for most. There comes a point, however, where the quality of life impacts become more important. In other words, sure, I’m willing to minimize risks for a while to preserve life (including mine and all others), but what value does that sacrifice hold if what I’m preserving is so devoid of the things that make it worth living?

blue in dc

April 10th, 2020 at 9:09 AM ^

While in theory many of the unemployed should be ok with the unemployment benefits, many are struggling to get those benefits because the system is so overwhelmed.   If you are living paycheck to paycheck that is a pretty big deal.

As for small business owners, ai think you may be significantly overestimating the amount many of them make and the expenses they may have.   They may have rent, bills they owe to suppliers and loan payments for capital equipment.   They also may be struggling to get payments for services already delivered as their customers struggle to pay their bills.

Many small businesses are not making huge profits and there owners are not neccesarily drawing huge salaries.

Things are not that hard to handle if you are retired or can work from home with no loss in pay.   Unfortunately many people do not fit into those categories and some of them are facing real challenges.

Double-D

April 10th, 2020 at 9:37 AM ^

Yes...People are genuinely hurting man. The government is going to try to protect people with stimulus programs but that only goes so far and works so well.  People fall through. 

If you are struggling to feed yourself it’s got to be pretty painful. If you are struggling to feed your kids i would think it rips at your soul. 

Midukman

April 10th, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^

That’s pretty shitty. Here in Ohio people haven’t gotten unemployment for weeks if at all. There’s gonna be many mom and pop shops that simply won’t reopen yet will be saddled with the debt for the rest of their lives. My daughter works in the covid 19 unit so she’s fine, but many nurses in that same hospital have been put off due to no business outside of bracing for covid 19. If your an OR nurse for the local orthopedic your sol. My in law who drives truck was just laid off because they’ve got no freight (not everyone hauls groceries). Please tell me again why you don’t understand why people are upset? I’m what the government classifies as a ‘gig worker’ and Ohio announced yesterday the system for 1099 folks to get unemployment won’t be up and running till the middle of May. I have a savings but it’s being depleted fast so I’m dam concerned. My daughter needs a root canal yet all dentist offices in her network are closed so her PCP keeps prescribing an antibiotic to keep the infection down. Any Mgo dentist on here willing to help my front line worker daughter out here? All the dental INS and flex spending accounts in the world aren’t getting her what she needs. I’m being serious and am seriously worried about this  

 

blue in dc

April 10th, 2020 at 9:23 AM ^

While I think in many places there was no option but to do stay at home orders (and with such limited testing capacity we had no way of figuring out just where), this is undoubtably really hurting many people such as yourself.

We need to find a way to transition to something better that balances individual health, overwhelming the hospital systems, individuals need to earn an income snd the economy as a whole.

There are no easy answers and any approach we take is going to hurt different groups of people and parts of the economy.

I’m sorry for the struggles your family is facing, but I think it is important for those of us (myself included) who do have the flexibility to work from home and are less significantly financially impacted.   I hope things work out as well as possible for your family.

freelion

April 10th, 2020 at 9:16 AM ^

Yes it has but our idiot governor is instituting the police state. I can't wait for her to be gone.