Common Opponents 2022 vs. 2021
Out of curiosity, I compared our margin of victory against common opponents from 2021 to 2022. The difference is nearly a touchdown better differential per game. Unless our common opponents have gotten worse on the aggregate, this would indicate a significant improvement from a Top 5 team and B1G champ. Let's hope that continues for the last two weeks.
November 15th, 2022 at 5:01 PM ^
I can't seem to attach the file, but the average was 6 points better.
Delta
Rutgers. +28
Nebraska +28
MSU +26
Indiana -1
PSU +20
Maryland -34
Iowa -26
Total +41
Average +6
November 15th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
Maryland -34
I attribute this entirely to playing September Maryland.
November 15th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
I think Michigan State and Nebraska are both worse by a good margin. Penn State is at least as good though and we handled them.
November 15th, 2022 at 5:51 PM ^
Agreed, though last year was at their place. So that accounts for a bit of the differential.
November 15th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^
49-27 here we come
November 15th, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
beat ohio.
everything else is distraction beforehand, or gravy afterwards.
the game will be a nail-biter
November 15th, 2022 at 5:57 PM ^
What type of gravy afterwards, homemade or from a jar?
November 15th, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
All the gravies!
November 15th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
Big Ten is definitely worse, but not by a whole touchdown. QB play is dreadful.
November 15th, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^
Feels like at least some of that is teams being worse than last year.
November 15th, 2022 at 6:02 PM ^
The bottom line is, OSU struggled mightily in the RZ vs Iowa. Struggled against PSU in a loseable game. And they struggled against NW.
We have had our RZ and first half struggles as well, but IMO, they have been closer to dropping a game. Not that any of this really matters much.
November 15th, 2022 at 8:41 PM ^
According to ESPN's in-game win probability (I know, I know...) UM has not been below 50% all season. The lowest level was 54.4% in the opening minute of the 3rd quarter against PSU.
Against that same PSU team, OSU had only a 31.7% win probability with 9:26 left in the 4th quarter. They were also under 50% (albeit barely and briefly) in the 3rd quarter of the opener against ND. ESPN never really considered Iowa and NW a threat to OSU, but your points stand.
November 15th, 2022 at 6:10 PM ^
Unless our common opponents have gotten worse on the aggregate
They have.
MSU is a full Doak Walker worse than last year. Probably 3 TDs worse without KW9.
PSU is better, though not as much as MSU is worse.
Maryland was better (less injuries) but has now turned into November Maryland with injuries.
Indiana is about the same.
Rutgers is about the same.
Iowa is worse. Their offense last year sucked, but nowhere near as bad as this year's. Somehow.
Nebraska is worse.