College Football Season Preview season: A 2014 season preview (Lindy’s)
Lindy's B1G preview, a couple of snippets for discussion and general board praise or derision.
They have Michigan coming in 4th in the B1G, behind OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin. Three players - Funchess, Ryan, and Countess - make All-B1G first team. Same number of players that OSU and MSU have on the first team, with Nebraska having four - Kenny Bell, Amir Abdullah, Randy Gregory and (somewhat surprisingly) LB Michael Rose. For national reference, they list Funchess as the #1 TE in the country, Ryan as the #7 ILB, and Countess as the #6 CB.
Maryland doesn't have anyone but a kicker on that first team, but reading the preview, they may be better than many people believe. For WolvinLA2 who I remember last year saying naming surprise teams too overachieve was lazy, I am naming them my surprise team to overachieve in 2014. They have great options at WR (as Seth has alluded to in earlier posts), a dual-threat fifth-year QB, a decent RB, and an OL that has 5* incoming freshman Damian Prince and a coveted juco transfer coming in to fill potential holes. The Defense is apparently solid, and at least junior-and-senior-laden with five of the top six tackle leaders returning. They were mid-50’s by un-advanced statistical measures in 2013.
But what I found most interesting was the ranking of offensive and defensive units. I will ignore offense because OL ranking (noteworthy though that they have Magnuson as 3rd team B1G), but the defense was interesting. For Michigan, the DL was ranked 5th, LB's 4th, and DB's 2nd (#9 unit nationally). Total score of 11, lowest score wins obvs. MSU is ranked DL 3rd, LB's 7th, and DB's 1st (#3 nationally). Total score of 11. OSU is ranked DL 1st (#1 nationally), LB's a crime against season preview humanity 2nd, and DB's 5th. Total score of 8. That's a pretty generous LB rating, in my opinion, for a unit that has an open question at MLB coming into the season. In the write-up they do excuse this away a bit, saying the LB position in the big is weak overall, who knows how they're going to do. PSU is #4 DL, #3 LB's, and #3 DB's, for a total score of 10.
I think M's DL is going to end up being better than #5, and I think our LB's are a little underrated as well. Of course I think that. But even so, Michigan should expect to have one of the best D's in the B1G next year.
Miscellaneous
Among coaches on the hot seat nationally, Brady Hoke is listed at #8 (“he sounds and looks the part, but we’re not convinced”); Tim Beckman is listed at #5 and Charlie Weis #6, with Florida's Wil Muschamp taking top honors. Rob Bolden, former PSU quarterback and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s grad, is now playing WR for LSU. Braxton Miller is #3 in the Heisman watch, with Melvin Gordon #8. Iowa sophomore CB Desmond King, by way of Detroit Crockett, is listed as an emerging star and 3rd team All-B1G. No offer from M or finder-of-all-unearthed-gems Sparty. Lindy’s list The Game as being in Ann Arbor this year as an advantage for M, which is a bit of a credibility sapper.
No, it's a hard-copy magazine. Though it may be on-line somewhere, I haven't looked. (didn't neg you)
It's a magazine.
What's that?
They have zero credibility after listing Funchess as a TE.
In their defense, they do say he will be split out wide as a WR often
I picked up both Athlon and Lindy's. Athlon didn't even list Funchess as a top 3 WR/TE nationally. JOKE. Pretty $EC bias there...
Thanks for posting this. BTW - do you mean to say Weiss at #2 on the hot seat? You've got both him and Brady at #8.
Although I am not entirely familair with their metrics, CoachesHotSeat.com makes out the top five in the Big Ten to be - in order - Darrell Hazell (he just got to Purdue - I don't get this entirely), Tim Beckman, Bo Pelini, Brady Hoke and then Randy Edsall (we can include him officially now). All five of them are fit that site's definition of "hot seat" territory, with Hoke being #21 nationally in their opinion. On the cusp, if you will, or "edge of hot seat" as they term it, would be Kyle Flood and then Kirk Ferentz among the Big Ten coaches. Not necessarily agreeing with the order, of course, but it makes for an interesting comparison.
He will probably be in the top 3 coaches on the hot seat in 2015. If Hoke loses 7 or more games this season, his seat will be empty.
I'm hoping Hoke can win one of the big 3 road games against ND, MSU and OSU, take care of business with the remaining B1G teams and finish the season strong at 9-3 with a bowl game victory!
I would be satisfied with that. 10-3 final record, at least a few of which were big games.
10-3 is my prediction as well. Lose all three of the "big" road games but hold serve at home and against the rest of the B1G. Then win an upper tier bowl game against somebody from the SEC. Final ranking around 10 nationally but positioned for a big jump in 2015.
10-3 is my prediction as well.
I would be quite happy with this. It would be a terrific foundation on which to build for the 2015 season.
Lose all three of the "big" road games but hold serve at home and against the rest of the B1G.
I would like to win at least one of those; preferably OSU, but I think MSU and/or ND is doable.
That said, if we have to lose all three, I sure hope the manner in which they lose those games leaves no doubt they were closely-fought contests and Michigan was clearly in the game all the way to the end. I've been in many arguments on this point, but I stand firm: if a few losses are just what fate has in store for us, make those losses games where Michigan plays a great game. Some say "a loss is a loss," but I say "an embarrassing loss is far worse than a loss in a well-played game."
although I do agree that Hoke's a goner at 7 losses.
RichRod was in a decent position in 2010 at 7-3. But then Michigan got destroyed in each of the last three games and he was a goner.
I'm for giving Hoke a chance in 2015 to play w/ lines stocked with upperclassmen that Hoke recruited. Events could change that, however.
Hoke will coach his final year of his contract in 2015. DB wants to give a Michigan man and his man enough time to succeed.
the issue with Hoke (I dont see him not returning in 15) is "lame duck" status - there will be a ton of talk in 8 months about if if he doesnt have a "very good" year and is not extended after the season. It will be the talk of recruiting and any high profile misses by Michigan etc.
Interesting site. Some observations:
- They have Nick Saban as #14, but trending down. Really? I realize he hasn't won a NC in the last five minutes, but c'mon ... it's Nick Saban. He's practically a god there. It would take more than missing a few NCs to put him on the hot seat.
- Brett Bielema at #5 and trending up strikes me as reasonable. He'd better have a pretty decent season or he may quickly find himself in the top 2 or 3. He may be regretting his move from Wisconsin.
- Going to the bottom of the list (safest territory), they have Bob Stoops at 122 and trending safer. I know they had a good year last year, but my sense is Stoops isn't quite so safe. Middle-of-the-pack safe, yes; darn-near-the-bottom safe? No.
- I'm surprised Urban Meyer at #114 and not further (safer) on the list. He's every bit as safe as Mark Dantonio at #124.
- What does Kirk Ferentz have on the AD and the others at Iowa? How is he only at #33? Iowa hasn't been a real contender in a long time (though he seems to have Michigan's number, that's for sure). He's very well paid to produce average results.
Rule of thumb: If you have a statue on campus, you're pretty safe. Super-rare PSU-related caveats apply, but I'm not 100% sure Paterno isn't PSU's HC right now if he's still alive.
Er, he was fired two months before he died.
Thanks, updated. It's actually Weiss #6
will give Weiss a few more years to improve the program. Mangino turned the program around but had anger management problems which affected both his players and wife and was forced to resign.
that I would think Weiss could at least partially fill.
I'm not old enough to remember if MSU was ever at a point in it's history that it just "re-loaded", so to speak. Therefore I predict that their D will take a step back this year, still good, just not 11-1 and a Rose Bowl victory good. I think their offense will be similar and probably not have the toothing problems it did last year. I'd predict a 2nd-3rd place finish.
Don't tell MSU fans that. They think every 2* player they recruit is going to be "coached up" into first round NFL draft picks like Dennard.
I would expect the defense to take a step back becasue what they had last year seemed like an all time great defense and they lost a lot of key pieces from it, but I think the offense should take a step forward since they wont have any qb controversy and they finished quite well on offense. I would think they could win the B1G again, but could see Wisky or OSU winning it as well.
Yes - I think their D will take a step back as well. Not a huge one, but they lost some solid players, including Bullough who was a team leader. They were also very fortunate in the injury department last year, so we'll see if that holds up again.
Not not much room to make a step forward so taking a step back isn't too wild a prediction.
I appreciate the shout out - you remember things I say better than I do. And that, my friend, is not lazy.
You're my boy Blue
And if I remember correctly, the reason I think it's "lazy" is mostly because there are usually only a very small handful of teams to pick from. You can't pick any of the big name teams that people expect to be successful or any of the teams we know will suck. And that usually leaves you with 1-3 teams left.
I agree that the average binge MGoUser knows more about Michigan than Lindy's, but Lindy's probably knows more about the rest of the league/country. You don't read a national magazine to get info on just your team. But it does an aboverage job of showing how the teams stack up against one another.
Well, a big part of it is a) look where a team finished, then b) look at how many/who they lost/returned. Then they go a little more qualitative from there, but that's the basic starting point. Coaching changes get a little consideration as well. But that's essentially all America is looking for anyway. And to be honest, it usually works out fairly well.
So even though we return all 3 starting LBs and a number of young LBs who played well in back up roles last season, we're #4? We are starting a 5th year senior, a 4th year senior and a junior, all of whom are returning starters. If that's middle of the pack, then the Big Ten must have some amazing fucking linebackers.
If Michigan ever loses to a team in this uniform I will gag.
doesn't see those?
Naming Funchess a tight end is a big error in my opinion. Athons and Steele figured it out. Also, Lindys has a bit about "Good news/bad news" at the start of each conference, and Michigan's good news was that they play Ohio State at home.
I don't have my copy on hand, so I can't nitpick over all the unit rankings, but not having Michigan first for linebackers is just an intelligence test that Lindys did not pass. (Steele has them first om tje conference and 7th in the nation.) I recall thinking that many other Lindys rankings were also stupid. And no WolvinLA2, the Big Ten isn't topped out in linebacking units. There are several teams with 1-2 good ones. Nebraska is pretty good; Northwestern and Rutgers bear mentioning. Sparty has Taiwan Jones, and I think Ed Davis will be good. But, no team can compete with Michigan's all 3 starters, as well as second team.
It's not that Steele is always right on everything. He has his usual Jones for Ohio State players. Why Curtis Grant shows up on an All Big 10 list is beyond me. Maybe he puts it together, but there are many middle linebackers who one should expect to have better years than he should have. I also think that he overrates Wisconsin who loses 6 starters out of its front 7, has zip in terms of returning production from its receivers, and who might replace its pedestrian quarterback with last year's safety. Even so, if you have to buy 1 magazine buy Steele. If you want a second with some team-by-team narrative---Steele spends too much in his team writeups talking about two years ago---buy Athlons.
Michigan is going 15-0 this year. Our defense is going to be a fucking beast. If our O-Line improves, we'll be a tough team to beat.
A point of clarification so it's not misunderstood: it's saying M's DB's are ranked #9 nationally, not the defense as a whole. Likewise MSU's DB's are ranked #3 nationally, and OSU's DL is #1 nationally. None of those I include above allude to the defense as a whole.
Diggs is certainly a good player, but without a second solid option, good teams will be able to shut him down. He'll get his stats, but he might be like Allen Robinson at PSU last year. Great player, but can't carry his team against other good teams (unless those other good teams suck at making FGs).
All i got out of this is that the B1G defense all star team should be able to shut down any team in the nation.
I'm honestly surprised folks still pick up the national magazines. I only read Bill Connolly's AB Nation previews and Hail to the Victors the past few years. The rest all reads like fluff to me.