College Football Nerds UM-OSU Preview
College Football Nerds put up their preview of The Game earlier this morning.
Their model has it at 28-26 OSU. They each picked OSU to win by about 2 touchdowns (Daniel - 31-17; Josh 34-21) as they think OSU's defense is better than last year, they don't trust Michigan's offense in part since Corum won't be fully healthy and the way to beat OSU's D is through passing.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:24 PM ^
Thanks for responding. I know it can be annoying to have people come after your content.
I totally agree that picking a game like this is inherently difficult; you're talking to UM fans here so we've lived this drama for decades now.
You absolutely called Goergia last year; honestly, the general sentiment was UM was going to struggle running the ball and the question was whether either team would have a demonstrable advantage throwing the ball. Stetson Bennett played great and could leverage his supporting cast around him better than people gave him credit for. But at the same time the last 5 times you've called UM games you got 1 right (you also picked UM to beat MSU 27-24 and UM to beat Iowa 24-13 in the BTCG last year), so it's reasonable to push back a bit on a 40% success rate picking the winner (ignoring the margins).
I agree the two teams are different this year compared to last, but as I referenced elsewhere in this thread OSU hasn't faced a particularly good running team all year. But Michigan's average line yardage this year is 2.96, good for 17th in the country. Last year it was...2.95, 18th in the country. Last year OSU's average line yards given up was 2.57, 51st in the country, while this year they're demonstrably better at 2.33.
But look a bit north on that list and you see both Iowa and PSU at 2.32 and 2.23, respectively. Michigan's performance against those 2 teams? 4.1 ypc against Iowa and 7.2 ypc against PSU. Yes, Michigan with an injured Corum and Edwards probably isn't doing that, but as we saw against Illinois in the first half Michigan was able to gash them and they are a top-5 rush defense by basically any metric available. And as it relates to OSU, the best line per line yardage they've faced this year is either Notre Dame (in the first game of the season) or Maryland/PSU, two teams that are a far cry below Michigan's rushing attack. So I guess my point is that it wouldn't be as out of left field for UM to be able to put up a similar performance to last year; the bigger outlier would be if OSU struggled offensively as much as they have this past month against better defenses. That's how UM wins this year in my opinion; they get Stroud uncomfortable and his receivers don't bail him out as much as they did last year, and they find a way to hold on to a low-ish scoring contest.
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:18 PM ^
Weirdest product placement I've seen. If I'm a clothing company I'm not sure I'd pick that chubby nerd as my model.
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
Yeah, I figured I wouldn't like their prediction, but these guys are alright. Always a fun show.
edit: People are hating on them a lot for picking OSU by a decent margin. I mean we're 7 and a half point dogs, that's going to be a theme. Picking OSU by 10 is probably the safest bet an analyst could make, because the only way they look really foolish is in a Michigan blowout.
Anyway, everybody picking against us will just make it all the sweeter if we win.
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:58 PM ^
What's great is to listen to their preview from last year.
November 22nd, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
That is a fine idea, sir.
November 22nd, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
They are entertaining-but they really do not know much about the actual playing of the game.
November 22nd, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Thanks for sharing! It's a really tough game to handicap because both teams present unique challenges and injuries are such an issue, but we tried to do the best we can.
November 22nd, 2022 at 5:56 PM ^
Ultimately it's pretty simple. Michigan needs to run well to win, and injuries make that a big question. It's a 7.5 pt spread for a reason - Vegas isn't dumb. Last year Michigan set a P5 high rushing in the game and was up one score with 5 minutes left. That was against an OSU team that got punked on the ground a few times - this OSU team hasn't. So from an outsider's viewpoint it doesn't seem ideal. But then again, who knows?
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:05 PM ^
OSU was shaky against NW’s run game even when they knew it was coming during a wind storm (228 yards at 4.2 ypc excluding sacks). I’d call that a relative punking, at least.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:32 PM ^
I'd say the game is actually going to come down to JJ's accuracy, because against Michigan for years OSU has just played one deep safety, put 8 guys in the box, and said "go ahead and throw it" and I expect they'll do that this year again.
If JJ can make some throws and hurt them they'll back off and we'll be able to run like we want to, if he can't they will go extremely run heavy on D until Michigan proves it's a bad idea.
November 22nd, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
The Nerds and their model are wrong, Their predictions last year were wrong, too. The final was:
November 22nd, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^
Sainranstil shutting down MHJ? Our receivers not dropping passes? We shall see.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:27 PM ^
If I was being objective about it, I might pick OSU, I mean OSU is at home, we don't know who we've got at RB, and JJ was very shaky last game.
I think the Michigan defense is legitimately pretty good and the OSU defense is a fake though. OSU beats us by scoring 40 if we can't get to Stroud, If Michigan scores in the 20s or less I think it's more about the Michigan offense beating itself/ having too many injures than the OSU defense.
Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Michigan figures out a way to run the ball even if we got to grab a kid out of the stands at running back. Running game looked bad last week for a half. Does that actually mean the offensive line was never good? No, it probably doesn't.
Stroud is also one of the biggest head cases you'll ever see at QB. He's going to be an NFL bust because he goes to pieces under pressure, or in weather, or if somebody looks at him funny.
I could see picking OSU, but OSU has enough problems, I really don't buy picking the line. Everybody has too many memories of OSU blowing Michigan out when it was supposed to be competitive, and even if nobody says it that's going to be the chief reason people pick against us, especially if they pick OSU to beat the spread.
If OSU was legitimately a double digit favorite in this game, they wouldn't be afraid of the weather forecast.