CFB might be dying... slowly

Students having 60" TVs in their dorm rooms and up to the second highlights in their pocket has something to do with the decrease in attendence.

When I was in school, the option to go to the game or watch it on our 27" tube was easy.

The 12 team playoff could change a lot of this, increasing the number of teams in contention at the end of the season.

I definitely agree that adding Rutgers and Maryland watered down the conference with consistent bottom dwelling Indiana, Illinois (last year not included) and also Nebraska. Outside of the Big 3 in the East division, what teams would you watch as a casual observer? I hate to say it but the SEC has more teams that create buzz down south: Georgia, Bama, Florida, Auburn, A&M, LSU and even schools such as SC, Ole Miss and Arkansas make them very strong. I think that is the overall appeal of 4 (16-20 team) super conferences. There are not a lot of intriguing matchups besides “The Game” OSU vs PSU and PSU vs UM. No disrespect to Wisconsin but most of their games don’t move the needle. Maybe this year vs OSU because of LF but I think it will be a massacre. 

Thanks for putting that together. The top 100 telecasts is surprising. I kind of knew that the NFL would be bigger, but from some of the threads I've seen on this board about top broadcasts I would have thought Michigan games were among the most watched across any comparison.

It just goes to show that as much as we think Michigan or Alabama or Ohio State losing is some monumental event, most of the country doesn't even lift an eyebrow.

Averages are below-average sources for prediction-setting.

My kids are more interested in watching other kids play video games onYoutube than they are watching other people play sports on TV. 

The way youth consumes entertainment has changed. There will always be room and a fanbase for sports but their slice of the pie has and will continue to shrink. 

I think this was a more of a story of the Pac12 blew it than CFB is dying.  The Big Ten signed a 7 year $7B deal last year.  The Pac12 couldn't compete and the unfortunate explosion continued.  That is, it continued after Texas and Oklahoma left the Big 12.

As we all know, this is all about the money.  No one knows how this will play out, but I'm guessing that the CFB school Presidents that have leverage are looking at the following.

March Madness has 2 events.  NBA Finals 0.

If college basketball can compete with the NBA, then shouldn't CFB be able to get more of those events that the NFL is enjoying?

CFB will be dead in 30 years.

Declining youth participation due to CTE will be the death of the sport

CFB seems determined to turn the gameday experience into the NFL experience but worse so they can maximize TV revenue. TV money has really blinded the sport as to why it got popular in the first place. No one wants NFL lite. They want college football

Great, Michigan finally gets good again and the sport dies.  Just our luck.

I think college football is so popular on TV because of how great the in-game experience is. It's either remembered by those viewers who once went to game themselves (like me), or envied by those viewers who didn't.

Either way, the passion, bands-and-cheerleaders, camaraderie, colors, and shared purpose made the experience stand out, and made the games seem "important." 

I wonder what will happen when TV (and the athletic directors of the world) succeed in killing the in-stadium experience altogether. How much longer will people choose to watch a sport on TV that's no longer actively fun to watch in person?

Honest to God, I'm a die-hard, and I've fought enormously to find ways to watch Michigan games when traveling or living abroad, often staying up until 4 or 5 in the morning to watch night games. But it's getting harder and harder to find a reason to do so, with so many games against shit teams taking almost four hours. It's not even the length -- it's the amount of time spent not watching football.

My South African-born former fiance used to shake her head at me. She was down for baseball or basketball, but football left her cold. Watching 5 minutes of commercials for every 3 minutes of football. I can't say she was wrong ...

things change. baseball used to be the #1 sport. then basketball had a breakthrough with bird/magic... then the NFL reached its peak popularity.. then college started to surge.. 

There are reasons, sure, but ultimately, interests change over long periods of time and since we're only talking decades of these things in meaningful existence, i would expect those changes to continue.

attendance for all sports are a challenge to incentivize. tvs, access to every game, sports bars, violence in games, uncomfortable seats, crazy prices, etc.... all contribute.

I love Michigan but I'll likely never watch a game there again unless I'm in the suites. The experience for a 40+ year old with a bad back and young kids is not one I want to do again.

Isn't attendance down at most live events though, not just CFB? I think it's fair to be concerned about CFB's place in the world - but if it's drawing higher than any other sport on TV after the NFL, I think to say it's "dying" is alarmist. If the NFL is doing well, it means there's still a place for football. What's distinguished CFB from the NFL over the past 50 years is something that the people in charge (namely, Fox and ESPN) have to understand and continue to market. As long as football is popular, there's no reason for CFB not to be. Blinkin's comment tho, is right and appropriate.

Dying?  I don’t think so. I’ve been in the computer industry since the early 80’s and predicted IBMs demise multiple times. They are still a major player, albeit not near number 1. 
College football will morph, will expand and contract, but will not die. 

CFB has forsaken what made it great in the first place—the rivalries, tradition, regionality, pomp, etc—and turned into a semi-pro league only. I so wish we could put the genie back in the bottle and go back to CFB fulfilling its amateur didactic mission but, alas, I have clouds to yell at. 

CFB isn't a slowly dying beast so much as a goose laying golden eggs getting violently ripped apart because the people who run it are too stupid to understand a children's parable.

Why do you track attendance YOY but not television #s or revenue or profit or return on literally anything YOY?

I'm not a fan of super conferences...

Personally, I think football is a bad sport to attend games in general, I would much rather watch on TV.

This is even more relevant for college football. Look, Michigan Stadium is a classic and its impressive but its also not really that fun of a place to be. The logistics of getting in and out of there, being crammed into metal bleacher seats shoulder to shoulder with someone, all for a worse view of the game than you could get at home.

I still attend games from time to time, but prefer to consume football at home. And when the Michigan game is over, I channel surf through all the good matchups before/after and enjoy my Saturday not trying to escape Ann Arbor. 

Since geography doesn't seem to be a problem anymore I'd suggest that the low hanging fruit of CFB be relegated.

It's time to put Rutgers and the remaining PAC together. Toss in Vandy, Boston College, you get the idea.

I know it will not happen but it should.

Pro sports as entertainment, which in this case includes college football, basketball, the Olympics, and other "amateur" sports, seem to be something like a bubble reaching the point of bursting. TV contracts have already slowed down, leading to the demise of the Pac-12, and it seems like live attendance has been falling as well. 

When you think about it, the economy of sports is just an economic transfer from the class of fans (consumers) who pay for tickets, merchandise, cable subscriptions and advertised products, to the producers, the players, owners, cable companies, and stadium builders. Consumers have been complaining for years that they are paying too much for an inferior product - at some point they will collectively hit the limit. There will be no more collective value to wring out. 

Since sports team fanaticism is one of the most durable brand loyalties out there, it's tempting to go for maximizing the value of a fanbase. But there's a risk of killing the golden goose, and I'm worried that the smart people in charge haven't figured it out, and are leaning too far in the short-term thinking. You need to not only make being a fan accessible, but cater to young fans so they are hooked for life. 

Of course I'm just a guy on the internet with an opinion and the people setting policies are paid to do what's best in the long term. Right? /s

No.

found tumalover's mgoblog account

I think within the next 15-20 season the NCAA is gone and you're looking at the 50 biggest programs left split into two conferences and its run essentially like the NFL. I also would not be surprised if the NFL eventually takes over the compliance and regulation of CFB

NFL dominates because of fantasy football. They have a ton of unwatchable games especially the first 5 weeks or even more. 

What am I missing? Dying? Why are the conferences getting massive and I mean massive TV contracts if it’s dying?

Watching the NFL is more habit than passionate interest. I tend to follow multiple pro teams based on where I've lived over time and rooted for growing up until now. That kind of loyalty probably accounts for a large share of folks who watch.

But that interest doesn't compare by any means or measure as a University of Michigan sports fan.  

As a New Jersey kid, I read stories about the winged helmets and started rooting for Michigan in the 60's, a Schembechler fan from the start glued to the black and white set for one of his grandest wins in school history beating his former boss Woody Hayes in the game of the century, 24-12 in 1969. Winding up living in Ann Arbor during their last national championship season and watching Michigan beat Ohio State in person w/ my son in 1997 was the high water mark of my fandom. 

Now, if only 2023 can add to that memory. 

It is dying as a sport but thriving as a medium to deliver advertising.  The rise of taping, recording, time-shifting, and now streaming made virtually every other form of TV advertising decline in value.  Sports are still watched live - at least more than "regular programming." So that is where the advertisers are and that is where the money is. Since money is what counts to the schools, here we are.  

Can't really compare NFL to CFB telecast viewership.  There are well over 100 D1 college football teams and about 35 NFL teams.  

The geographic footprint of New England for example.  1 NFL team and let's say 20 colleges. 

Michigan is the same.  1 NFL team on Sunday and let's say 5-10 college football options every Saturday. 

NFL is a rifle to CFB's shotgun.