CC: Counterintuitive Thought - Root Against Jim Harbaugh Getting Fired
Thought experiment:
Preface - I am assuming JH has not made a decision yet btw NFL and NCAA and future events will help to sway him.
I think the mob mentality that is wishing Jim be fired ASAP is not the right train of thought. Michigan has a unique advantage over any NFL team that wants Jim. Those teams will be required to pay a ransom - small, medium, or large - that UM does not require to pay. Negotiations for that dowry could take days, or hell a week or two to play out. They could be ugly - this requires York, Baalke, Harbaugh, and a 4th NFL party all to agree to something. And this something is an agreement where Harbaugh and future NFL team would be on 1 side of things and Baalke and York on the other. That doesn't seem very easy. You want Jim to be stuck at the hip with 49ers if you are a Michigan fan. The minute Jim is fired he is a free agent and UM loses that distinct advantage.
Saban walked to Bama in early January following his NFL season with 3 years on his contract. Jim can do the same with 1 year left.
It is to our advantage to muck things up for NFL teams if he is in any situation where he is 50/50 or 70/30 or 30/70 btw NFL and NCAA. The 49ers may drag it out 7-10 days during which an exasperated Jim turns the 50/50 into a 100/0 to UM.
Last point, any trade marginally weakens Jim's future employer in the NFL. Perhaps it is a modest loss like one 2nd rounder, or a 3rd and 4th rounders in two future years. But it is something that remains a penalty for any NFL job he considers IF HE IS employed with the 49ers. Again, if he is fired - that penalty does not exist so it is no longer somehing for him to consider (however minor) as he weighs all his options, pro and con.
I welcome dissenting opinions - maybe I am missing something obvious.
December 15th, 2014 at 12:08 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 12:46 AM ^
That was funny once.
It might be funny again in the near future.
It's not funny right now.
December 15th, 2014 at 6:07 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 7:46 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 9:48 AM ^
Of course the Pope would tell us to quit bedding...
December 15th, 2014 at 12:14 AM ^
I'm convinced Jim is not coming here because we are Michigan and everyone knows we can't have nice things.
December 15th, 2014 at 12:18 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 12:26 AM ^
At some point the tide has to turn, right? Right???
December 15th, 2014 at 7:09 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 12:15 AM ^
I think the most significant part of Jim getting fired would be the acceleration of the "swim lanes," if you will. Based on limited knowledge of his personality, it seems difficult to imagine he would voluntarily leave his team with games left in the season. Due to today's results, it seems the earliest day U-M could get a final answer from Jim would be December 28. If he is fired tomorrow, U-M gets a final answer and may then swim over to other lanes.
It all hinges on the assumptions that Jim won't answer until he is done for the season and that timing is a very delicate balance due to recruiting, staffing, finding a plan B guy, etc.
December 15th, 2014 at 12:32 AM ^
I agree if he is fired tomorrow there would be some window of opportunity for UM I suppose before NFL teams jumped in, although I imagine most would be working behind the scenes immediately and sad franchises like Oakland more than willing to fire people immediatly if that is what is required - instead of waiting until Dec 28th.
But other than having a petulant brat as an owner there is zero reason for the 49ers to fire Harbaugh when he is a bargaining chip that brings back value to any other NFL team if that is his future path.
Obviously I see why the calls for firing are out there and if Jim has already decided on Michigan then its moot. Being fired tomorrow would be "awesome" in that case.
But my scenario is outlined for a situation where Jim has not yet made a decision as he has no idea what all his options are yet. Something that won't be clear most likely until 2-5 days after the season ends. In that situation a very messy divorce where the parties not only dislike each other but are fighting for opposite things (future NFL team + JH fighting for small compensation, Baalek and York fighting for big compensation) can only help Michigan.
December 15th, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
I never thought the Niners being eliminated from playoff competition was important in so much as he would then be able to leave his job before the end of the season to come coach Michigan. I thought it was important in that Harbaugh was obviously not going to make or at least announce a decision when it could possibly be interpreted as interfering with his team's title chances. Now that the season is effectively over, I think Harbaugh can decide and either announce his acceptance of the Michigan job starting Dec. 29, or tell Michigan that he is staying in the NFL and have his agent start the process of pursuing other jobs.
I don't think he's going to "quit" on the 49ers, but with them out of playoff contention, I don't think he has to quit in order to announce his intentions, either publicly or behind closed doors.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:06 AM ^
Anyone who knows me on here knows that I love posting gifs and admiring the strategic gif placement of others. Alas, you are just not very good at choosing and presenting gifs at all...
December 15th, 2014 at 12:17 AM ^
they're a bunch of losers who deserve Schiano. The contract with Michigan had better be fully negotiated and ready for signing at the moment of his dissociation with the 9ers at this point (whenever that is), before any negotiations with anyone else can even start. We gain no greater advantage with time.
Consequently, your scenario is unnecessary Mokey Rodeo. If Harbaugh changes his mind and doesn't sign immediately, then the rest of it doesn't matter.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:31 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 12:22 AM ^
I am convinced Jim has already gave us an inkling he is leaning towards coming.
But you are right a trade scenario is a long process. I dont think any team will give up anything more than a 5th rounder for harbaugh. Teams know the niners dont want him. They can just hold the niners hostage until they are forced to fire him.
December 15th, 2014 at 12:40 AM ^
Read a few 49ers/NFL blogs and prevaling wisdom is SF would get nothing like the Gruden compensation since everyone knows JH is headed out the door. Obviously desperation by a bad franchise can cause the stakes to go very high but most of the rampant speculation has mid round draft pick(s) in the 3rd or 4th round in return for JH. If that is 1 or multiple is up for debate - these things are so rare and this situation is unique even within that small pool of precedent.
Of course it also has to be a destination JH wants to go to so that winnows the pool of suitors down even further. But I think the thing getting lost is I imagine Jim is very pissed with his treatment and the last thing a competitive man like him wants to see is SF benefiting from his departure. Further he does not want to hurt his future team. So I cannot imagine a negotiation between Harbaugh v York/Baalke going very well at all.
Hence I am in the tiny #DoNotFireHarbaugh camp. Michigan is such an easy answer - so uncomplicated. Do it Jim.
December 15th, 2014 at 11:19 AM ^
How much more did they think they were going to get? Were they waiting for a crap football team to give up their first round pick for a guy with a pen around his neck? There is no way in the world SF is getting anything more than a third round pick, and even that is stretching it.
December 15th, 2014 at 12:32 AM ^
fans should want. Firing just opens the door for all the other suitors to come into the picture and offer whatever, talk whenever, etc....Now that 49ers are out of playoffs maybe he will take some time to focus a little more on his future plans.
With that said 49ers would be crazy to fire him unless they can't stomach him being around one more day. He's worth more than a 5th rounder also especially when if a bidding war starts. Making the trade means you got him for an NFL team. If that's all what stands in the way for them I'm sure they would up the ante quite a bit.
December 15th, 2014 at 6:35 AM ^
SF is simply not going to fire Harbaugh now. Certainly not without trying to work out a trade first. No NFL team is in a position to hold the 49ers hostage. They can posture as if they're willing to bring him back if they don't get a reasonable option. Time is on their side if Harbaugh is seriouisly considering our job. Everyone knows we have a deadline coming soon. The 49ers can use that for leverage, not only with possible trading partners, but with Harbaugh.
December 15th, 2014 at 12:36 AM ^
1. Most of us are only rooting for him not to make the playoffs for that would complicate things. He did not, 49ers results no longer matter.
2. He was never getting fired. The 49ers view him as a trade asset, therefore they will hold onto him in hopes of acquiring picks.
3. It is good news we have not seen much on the CC front the last week or so. Brian said no news is good-ish news.
4. Please let us have this one football gods!!! Please?!?!
December 15th, 2014 at 12:52 AM ^
I don't know if it makes a huge difference whether Harbaugh is fired by the Niners or not. Lawyers exist to paper over things like this. But Harbaugh being employed does at least add a wrinkle that other NFL teams will have to deal with. I doubt his remaining under contract with San Fran really helps us all that much, but I don't see how it hurts.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:02 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 15th, 2014 at 1:02 AM ^
They are not going to fire a guy and pay him $5mil plus part of this year's salary when teams are lining up for his services. Forget about the draft pick potential if he stays in the NFL.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:24 AM ^
if he isn't certain he would want to sign a contract extension?
December 15th, 2014 at 1:55 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 2:11 AM ^
you don't want the Niners to fire him. If the Niners try to trade him, Jim essentially has veto rights. Like you said, no team is probably going to trade for Harbaugh if he isn't going ot sign an extension. Harbaugh's leverage is that if the Niners try to trade him to a team/organization that he doesn't want to go to, Harbaugh can simple tell the team he isn't signing an extension. I'd assume Harbaugh's refusal to sign an extension would kill just about any trade.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:30 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 11:02 AM ^
He determines his future. He could seek the Michigan job and get a buyout of his contract. He could opt to stay in the league and if he becomes subject to a trade, dictate which team he'd be willing to coach, with his three most likely suitors being the Raiders, Dolphins and Jets who interviewed him before hiring Rex Ryan.
I don't see a scenario where Harbaugh has to bend to anyone's will. He could be fired but that would only happen if the 49ers just wanted him gone and were willing to pay the remaining year of his contract.
There is no situation where the 49ers benefit from his exit except a trade conditional upon Harbaugh's acceptance.
What this gets down to is Harbaugh deciding whether he wants to stay in the NFL or go back to the college ranks. And that is a question I don't think he's fully resolved yet. And that's in part due to the fact that there have been conditional timing issues like his team's playoff status, which is no longer a hurdle, and as a result now gives Michigan a real window of opportunity to strike a deal with Harbaugh that no other team in the NFL can respond to until the NFL season ends.
December 15th, 2014 at 5:32 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 1:26 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 2:16 AM ^
as long as Jim is still employed by the Niners, other teams cannot talk to him about a potential job. The best situation is for the Niners to keep him under contract and try to trade him. UM can talk to Harbaugh all they want while other NFL teams technically cannot talk to him.
As long as Harbaugh remains under contract with the Niners, the only leverage he has in controlling if and where he coaches in the NFL next year is by agreeing to or refusing to sign an extension with a new team via a trade.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:44 AM ^
The 49ers will hang onto Jim to see if they can peddle him, but he'll be gone and on his way to Ann Arbor for a press conference before they can.
December 15th, 2014 at 5:31 AM ^
"Jim Harbaugh said he is willing to sit at the negotiating table with 49ers CEO Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke to discuss his future after his team was officially eliminated from playoff contention Sunday.
Whether or not San Francisco's brass wants him back is entirely up in the air.
"I'm always available to sit down with the owner or general manager, absolutely," Harbaugh said, before noting he expects to sit down with them "at some point."
Not really any hard new info, but IMHO there's nothing in his statement that gives a solid hint of a move to Michigan. Those who think he's going to stay in the NFL will interpret it one way, those who are convinced "It's Happening" will interpret it another way.
The rest is here (not paywalled): http://michigan.scout.com/story/1492075-harbaugh-open-to-negotiating-wi…
December 15th, 2014 at 6:55 AM ^
I caught this quote in the presser, or at least the portion they showed, and my initial reaction to it was that he honestly didn't know exactly how much longer he would be with the 49ers, but yeah, it doesn't really give any indication of where his head is at. Like others, I tend to believe that the longer this goes without a definitive answer from him, the better it looks for us on the surface. To the OP's point, it probably does help Michigan in a strategic sense if they at least keep him until the end of the season, I would think.
December 15th, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
He's being reasonable and open about his future with the team when its the 49ers through its media leaks and back channel sources who have made it clear that Harbaugh's tenure was based on his ability to get his team into the playoffs and a Super Bowl berth.
With that obstacle gone, Harbaugh is simply fending off the media without revealing any specific intentions, which makes him a very smart guy in my book.
At this point, I don't think he's sure which way he wants to go. And he may play this cloak and dagger game in the media, because Michigan is now on the clock for his services. And if they don't get a definitive answer this week or next, I think you will see greater movement in the search process with a possible resolution by Christmas.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:29 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 6:17 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 6:57 AM ^
Can someone explain what happens on the 49ers' end if Jim decides to walk away and come to AA after the 28th? He has a year left on this contract, so would he (UM, indirectly) owe the Niners any compensation? Do the Niners basically get nothing if Jim decides he's not staying in the NFL?
December 15th, 2014 at 7:07 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 15th, 2014 at 11:22 AM ^
the NFL, he'd face bigger contract consequences than if he left for a college job, especially if he had a provision of his contract allowing him to return to say Stanford or Michigan. I don't think his contract offers that exit provision, so he would either be subject to compensation losses or he could negotiate a buyout with his next employer that would satisfy his contract with the team.
December 15th, 2014 at 7:05 AM ^
The longer he this goes, the better the odds that we get him!!
December 15th, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^
IMO, with the Niners eliminated from the plalyoffs, the clock begins to tick for Hackett. As long as the Niners still were in the playoff hunt, we could all sit back and say nothing is going to happen. I think the window now is about 3 weeks. I'm guessing Hackett would like to have a coach in place relatively soon after the calendar turns to 2015.
December 15th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
on whether he will accept the Michigan job or not, so the school can proceed even if a deal with Harbaugh isn't announced until a later date beneficial to all concerned. Michigan has negotiating leverage now and that time will expire when the NFL season ends.
Typically, most teams announce coaching firings within hours or days of the regular season finish.
I think we ought to remember a report earlier in the news cycle indicating Hackett wanted to deal directly with the 49ers, to be above board in all the school's actions in securing Harbaugh's coaching rights. If that's true, and Michigan does proceed along those lines, then the statement Harbaugh gave in his postgame press conference would also reflect to a certain extent the course both Michigan and their possible next coach are jointly navigating now.
Of course, that could just be wild speculation. But I think you have to remember that certain things get reported for both leverage impact and pr purposes in highly public personnel matters such as these. That is why I give the repport about Michigan looking to deal directly with the 49ers as significant.
December 15th, 2014 at 7:24 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 7:51 AM ^