pescadero

September 15th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^

The 2009 NC year was McElroy's 1st year as a starter. He was a RS Junior. He had played in 8 games and thrown 20 passes.

 

The 2011 NC year was McCarron's 1st year as a starter. He was a RS sophomore. He had played in 13 games and thrown 48 passes.

 

2016 was Wilton Speight's 1st year as a starter. He was a RS sophomore. He had played in 5 games and thrown 25 passes.

 

I'm not sure how that is, to any appreciable degree, "younger than those QBs in terms of time playing college football".

 

 

Joined: 03/28/2013

MGoPoints: 12081

Reader71

September 15th, 2017 at 10:35 PM ^

No, but close. Being in school but not playing in games still leaves practice reps. People use those to improve as football players. So, they count "in terms of time playing college football" but not "B1G game reps". You don't need me to explain this, why are you doing this? By common used metrics such as number of years practicing college football, Speight was younger than 3 of the 4 QBs you listed and the same age as the 4th. There's nothing you can do to escape that fact. Game reps count more than practice reps, which count more than high school reps of any kind. Which is what I replied to above when the other gentleman brought up Speight's 5th year of HS. Don't know why you took issue with that. Seems a strange thing to argue in favor of. You might eventually get me in a contradiction if we keep playing this game, but I don't know why you would care to.

Joined: 08/30/2009

MGoPoints: 22968

pescadero

September 15th, 2017 at 8:12 AM ^

2012 AJ McCarron: 211-314 67.2% 2933 yards 9.3 Y/A 30 TD 3 INT

2016 Wilton Speight: 204-331 61.6% 2538 yards 7.7 Y/A 18 TD 7 INT

 

I don't think it's an outrageous idea that Speight could improve modestly to a level similar to those two Bama QBs.

 

Ummm... that would be a lot more than "modest" improvement. Getting to 2012 McElroy levels would be HUGE improvement.

 

 

Joined: 03/28/2013

MGoPoints: 12081

Squash34

September 15th, 2017 at 9:09 AM ^

I know, it's shocking that people are not accounting for this when they look at the QB numbers. If I remember right, McCarron's lines featured 3 future first rounders and the other two were drafted in the first half of the draft too. And he had Jones to throw to on play action, which worked most of the time because the run game was so good.

Joined: 09/13/2016

MGoPoints: 3062

Squash34

September 15th, 2017 at 10:14 AM ^

So, you are just going to disregard every example of the where average to above average QBs have won championships in recent history by saying they are historically elite programs? The fact of the matter is, since 2000 the national title has been won by more average to type QBs than elite ones. Here is a list of the elite college QBs USC Matt leinart, 2005 Texas Young, 2006 and 2008 tebow, 2010 Auburn Newton, 2013 FSU Winston, 2016 Watson. So if the last 17 championship, the title was won because of elite qb play 7 times, eight if you want to call Ken dorse an elite college qb but with the amount of talent around him he was kinda a game manager for me. So, excluding bama (because your premise is outside of bama you need an elite qb to win) the title was won by good to above average type Qbs,: 2000 Oklahoma, 2001 Miami, 2002 OSU, 2003 and 2007 lsu 2014 OSU. Therefore, it is not rare for ok QBs to win National Championships.

Joined: 09/13/2016

MGoPoints: 3062

Sten Carlson

September 15th, 2017 at 9:55 AM ^

Maybe based upon the fact that Jake improved, and Harbaugh & Co. have a long history developing players -- not a very large leap. Yet, the anti-WS crowd make two HUGE leaps: 1) Wilt has not progressed; and 2) Wilt will never progress Both of these have no historical precedent. Yet, we actually have a historical precedent from 2015 to base our "wishful thinking" upon. This debate is a near carbon copy of the Anti-Jake debate that raged in 2015 -- how'd that turn out? Your pessimistic assumptions ... not so much. Is it more likely that with continued practice and game reps under the expert eye of Harbaugh and Pep that Wilt will get better, or completely stagnate? The fact that we've ALREADY seen improvement in Wilt's deep passes pretty much destroys the Anti-WS position yet so many cling to it and seem willing to ride it to the bottom.

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: -56

EGD

September 15th, 2017 at 10:43 AM ^

Here is Speight's chart from the UFR:

His DSR scores have been a bit lower than his 2016 average.  But he hasn't recorded a single bad read in 2017 and he's had 4 DOs in both games.  The entire "regression" seems to be accounted for in his accuracay numbers, were in 2016 he averaged 3.8 INs per game and this season he's averaging 5 (through two games).  That's a pretty miniscule difference.  And that's with inferior pass protection and all new receivers.  

In other words, if Speight makes about 1.2 fewer inaccurate throws per game, he'll be no less inaccurate than 2016--if he makes two or three fewer inaccurate throws per game, he'll have gotten better (to say nothing of his improved reads).  

Speigh obviously hasn't hit his stride yet for 2016 and needs to take better care of the ball on handoffs.  But to me, when you say a player has "regressed," that means he's actually gotten worse.  I don't think there is much of an argument for that.

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 35199

Sten Carlson

September 15th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^

Cmon man! This pathetic. WS's critics point to WIDE OPEN WR's last year against Iowa that he missed as on if their main strikes against him. But, then give a snarky, "... yeah way to complete those!" [wide open WR's] in response to his recent successes. When someone beats you at a game or sport do you say, "yeah well I let you win ... so you really didn't beat me ..." as well?

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: -56

AA Forever

September 15th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^

He's been coached by Harbaugh for three years. He's still average to good at best. He has not improved noticeably this year. He threw some good deep balls last year, so a couple of good ones this year doesn't change that. When exactly do you predict this startling improvement will take place, if it hasn't already? Bottom line, Speight is far closer to his ceiling than to his floor.

Joined: 08/14/2016

MGoPoints: 765

The Krusty Kra…

September 14th, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^

Hand off to Ty Isaac and the other RB's, and don't turn the ball over. Harbaugh's offense will always be a pro style, run first, we don't need Speight to be Jake Rudock, we just need him to be reliable and error-free.

Joined: 02/22/2017

MGoPoints: 2447

jabberwock

September 15th, 2017 at 12:33 AM ^

We actually do need him to be Jake Rudock, unless you like 3rd place for the 3rd year in a row.

Game managing is not fumbling near your goal line, throwing pick 6s and being too inconsistent with his accuracy.

I think Speight will improve,
but the current level of play is still shy of "win the B10 with a Game Manager QB" level.

Joined: 07/04/2008

MGoPoints: 51146

stephenrjking

September 15th, 2017 at 12:39 AM ^

Game managing is the opposite of fumbling near the goal-line and throwing pick 6s. The whole point of a "game manager" QB paradigm is to field a guy who makes good decisions and avoids mistakes, occasionally making an important play, allowing the team's superiority in other areas to win the game.

A game manager performance in Columbus puts Michigan in the B1G title game. I'm not a Sph8r. I like him and I like what he brings to the table and I believe he'll improve, but what he is right now is a mistake-prone playmaker. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143860

goblue4321

September 15th, 2017 at 6:53 AM ^

I agree, manage the game don't make stupid mistakes. take away the fumble on goal line against osu and M wins that game, that would have put up 17-7 in 3rd qtr, that was a big momentum changer. Last week against Cincinnati take away the fumble to Isaac woulda made 21-7, cinci would have started to give up and probably would have turned into blow out. But seems like speight is the top choice now by coaches and they r in practice every day not us. So he better get his shit together cuz a 9-3 season with speight is a waste, would be better to go 9-3 with peters and have more upside for next year. Cuz honestly if peters could manage game then M should win same amount games with either qb in there

Joined: 02/01/2017

MGoPoints: 1296

taut

September 14th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^

His miscues come from readily correctable technique issues, things that can (will?!) be fixed in relatively short order.

His strengths -- understanding what he surveys across the line of scrimmage, his command of offensive alternatives to be deployed in response to pre-snap defensive adjustments, and his coolness under pocket pressure are advantages not easily developed in quarterbacks who lack them at the start of a season.

Keep him in there and hope/expect his miscues diminish. He will win some games for us.

Joined: 12/01/2015

MGoPoints: 1057

Squash34

September 15th, 2017 at 9:40 AM ^

Well, the game was still close when the QB came out, even though Michigan had a huge second quarter. However, Michigan was in complete control and was shutting down Colo offense besides the pass, which was fouls gold so to speak. That td never happens if their qb was not visibly hurt the play before to the point he could barely stand. The defense expected a hand off, and why wouldn't they, the dude could barely stand!!! What a play in his part. But, yeah, that game was already won even if the QB stays in. Michigan had all the momentum.

Joined: 09/13/2016

MGoPoints: 3062

JonnyHintz

September 15th, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^

The score was the only thing close about that game at that point. I would say Michigan completely shut down their run AND their pass. Aside from the 70 yard bomb that nobody expected (good call by their coaches), Michigan held their starter to 5/13 passing for 27 yards after the first quarter.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48345

Blue Mike

September 15th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^

You might want to go back and read the UFR from that game... you may not be remembering it correctly.

Oddly however, Brian even called out how much better Speight was when facing some pressure and having to move around; he became much more accurate passing the ball. Seems like the opposite of this year, when apparently we can only expect him to complete a pass when the offensive line keeps everyone at least 5 yards away from him. Is some of this mental? Does he have some kind of PTSD from the injury last year?

Joined: 12/12/2012

MGoPoints: 2379

turtleboy

September 15th, 2017 at 10:47 AM ^

I forget the stats exactly, but in the UFR for the first two games he's been accurate in the vast majority of his passes up the middle, while his passes to the outside he is complete and total derp, sailing around 80% of his throws wildly by 5-10 yards. Maybe he just doesn't step into the throws to the edge, who knows, but with glaring stats like that I hope they game plan around it a little.

Joined: 04/22/2011

MGoPoints: 35131