October 27th, 2020 at 3:07 PM ^
That is always a possibility, also a possibility is the fact he could have contracted it between the test before the game and the test Saturday morning I believe
October 27th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
While that is certainly a possibility, it’s more likely he picked it up a few days before his initial test and his testing fell into a perfect window. Negative with first test, positive with one the next day. Meaning the virus wasn't as t a detectable level yet.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:27 PM ^
This is the correct answer. Additionally, he certainly would've been contagious during game time frame. Will be interesting to see how many players on that team turn out to be positive as well
October 27th, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
Yeah, had some cases near and dear to my heart pop up recently. Guy I know contracted on a Friday, but only tested positive the following Wednesday. His wife tested negative until yesterday (they quarantined away from each other after his positive/her negative test).
Most likely, he didn't have the viral load large enough to pass it to her right away. She caught the virus before her negative test, but didn't have the viral load large enough to register as positive.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
The timetable to return is really what's in question though. According to some, he would be allowed to return for the UM game, but how many negative tests does he need to have before he is actually cleared? Can those tests all be performed the same day or does there need to be multiple days of testing clear?
October 27th, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^
There ya go, doing that science thing again.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
Incubation period. Could've been positive during the game. Just didn't show up until Saturday. He'll be cleared to practice after a negative test on day 14.
He will get the start in Ann Arbor.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^
He is not eligible for the Michigan game. He got his confirmation today (I believe the test was on Sunday or Monday) and it is 21 day suspension from the date of "confirmation" test.
Should that test also come back positive, athletes must then undergo a cardiac evaluation and be approved to return by a heart specialist designated by their school. Athletes who test positive must sit out at least 21 days after the confirmation of their positive test before they can return to game competition.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
The Big Ten's own press release says "The earliest a student-athlete can return to game competition is 21 days following a COVID-19 positive diagnosis." Does not say anything about the PCR or the Rapid test being the one that results in a diagnosis.
ESPN's Adam Rittenberg (I know, I know) is tweeting that the 21 day clock starts from the first positive test and if that was on Saturday, he will be eligible to return for our game.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^
Even if Mertz were to return for the Michigan game, I doubt he'll throw 20 for 21 in the passing game.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^
Before Mertz career is over I think he is going to prove to be one of the better Big Ten QBs in quite some time.
He is still a RS Frosh but if he is out our chances of winning vs Wisconsin go way up.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:08 PM ^
That will be day 21. He can return on Day 22.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:24 PM ^
From what I’m seeing online it sounds like they’re counting the day you test positive as day 1. Which will put day 22 as that Saturday.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:41 PM ^
Does that mean he can practice before the 21 day period? If not, I doubt they'd roll him out there with no practice for three weeks unless they're desperate.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^
Yes. After 14 day sit out period, once he tests negative and passes the cardio tests he can practice.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
Exactly ,the incubation period could be from 2-12 days, at times even longer.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^
The Big Ten's official language is admittedly unclear, but the plain reading of their press release would suggest that a "COVID-19 positive diagnosis" would occur after the PCR confirmation, *not* the rapid antigen test (because those have higher rates of false positives and negatives). As a doctor, you wouldn't usually "diagnose" someone as having COVID without the confirmatory test.
But this is not explicitly stated in the release, so we can't be 100% sure.
October 28th, 2020 at 9:23 AM ^
Something that took awhile for me to grasp, we need to expect the worst, plan accordingly.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
The 21-day ineligibility period doesn't start from the first positive (antigen) test, it starts from the date when it's confirmed with a PCR test. And the article linked below says that the clock starts when the confirmation test comes back positive, not when it's administered. If that's accurate, he's out for sure. (Article also contains Josh Ross saying the timeline is "outrageous").
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/10/26/big-ten-covid-rules-wisconsin-qb/
October 27th, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
I don't think this is correct. According to this article posted by Needs in today's UV, it's 21 days from the results of the confirming PCR test, which clearly seems to be today. This would mean on the day of the Michigan game he'll be on day 18 of the stated 21 day sit-out window.
Important part here:
Under the conference’s coronavirus protocols, Big Ten athletes, coaches, trainers and other individuals who are on the field for all practices and games undergo daily antigen testing. Athletes who test positive through the daily testing must take a more accurate polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to confirm the result.
Should that test also come back positive, athletes must then undergo a cardiac evaluation and be approved to return by a heart specialist designated by their school. Athletes who test positive must sit out at least 21 days after the confirmation of their positive test before they can return to game competition.
Should his positive test be confirmed, Mertz, considered the top quarterback recruit ever to sign with Wisconsin, will not be allowed to play until Nov. 21 at Northwestern, at the earliest. He will miss games against Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan after tying a Badgers record with five touchdown passes and throwing just one incompletion on 21 attempts in their season-opening 45-7 rout of Illinois on Friday.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^
Adam Rittenberg ESPN is saying the rule is from first positive test. So he would be eligible for Michigan.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:12 PM ^
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
October 27th, 2020 at 4:20 PM ^
Even if true, he won't have team practices and live scrimmage time. He will be very rusty at best.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^
Or if Michigan is his 1st game back he has 21 days to study Don Browns defense....I’m sure he will find time to work out during quarantine and throw after 10 days.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:44 PM ^
Big Ten rules allows for the return to practice after 14 days. The extra 7 days is to get back into football shape. So, best case for Mertz is that he gets to practice for 7 days leading up to Michigan; with his prime focus being on Don Brown's defense.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:10 PM ^
Michigan is Day 21. He cannot play on Day 21. Day 22 he can.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:30 PM ^
All of the wording is a s**t show, in typical Big Ten fashion. We'll see what happens in a few weeks, but some are saying that the Big Ten is treating the day of positive (Saturday) as day 1 and not day 0. If that is true, then day 21 is the Friday before the Michigan game. The Big Ten will find a way to make us face him.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:14 PM ^
Adam Rittenberg is full of shit. Look at the link in MH20's post above. He won't be eligible for Michigan.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^
This part of the conference Covid policy is the one causing confusion: "The earliest a student-athlete can return to game competition is 21 days following a COVID-19 positive diagnosis"
Which test is considered the positive diagnosis? The antigen test or the PCR test? If the PCR test confirms the antigen test then you'd think the positive diagnosis would be the antigen test.
They should have been more clear when they wrote the policy, now there will be massive confusion. If I had to guess, Mertz will be back for Michigan (barring him getting seriously ill)
October 27th, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^
While that may in fact be the way it plays out, it is a completely inaccurate reading of current B10 policy.
In protocols agreed upon prior to the season, 21 full days after the first positive must elapse, pending secondary confirmation positive, and obviously subsequently being asymptomatic and testing negative.
I fully expect them to change this policy due to not just wiscy's starting QB testing positive, but also their QB3, while QB2 is recovering from surgery.
For the sake of "competitive balance" (i.e. screwing Michigan) I imagine we'll face Mertz...
October 27th, 2020 at 3:15 PM ^
It's possible that he had already contracted the virus at the time of his negative test but that its presence in his body wasn't yet strong enough to be detectable by the test.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:55 PM ^
That's more than just a possibility.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
It seems that some people don't test positive in the first couple of days after infection, when they are still presymptomatic. Covid is one sneaky bugger of a virus.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:52 PM ^
Even if they did, there necessarily has to be a point at which someone tests negative one day and then positive the next. If he tested positive Friday, one could ask, well why didn't he test positive Thursday? Because there's a point at which you go from not detectably positive to detectably positive. It's not complicated or sneaky. Going from negative is literally and simply binary just like other viruses.
It's not clear if he was infected before Friday or not. But what is clear is that he was not detectably infected on Friday. That's it.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
The viral load became high enough to be detected at some point between the two tests. Tests are sensitive to a certain point and it takes some time for the virus to replicate itself and grow in enough numbers to be detected.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
Agree with all the above. Simplistically, one is always negative before turning positive. They just tested him on consecutive days. While returning in 14 days may be true for most of us, the Big 10 is being extra cautious and requiring 21 days due to possible myocarditis which would be a significant concern in an athlete.
Unless rules are changed, he is out for our game and cannot even practice in the interim.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^
It's a little known fact that there is a spectrum to the tests. They are *less* positive if the player is important to the team, or if they play for OSU.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^
Or if they're in the NFL aside from Jacksonville, apparently.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^
Sorry, I can only focus on the possibility that Michigan will have to face 4th stringer and Walk-on Vanden Boom three weeks from now.
Sure am glad McDoom decided not to transfer to Wisconsin or we would have to face the dreaded Vanden Boom to McDoom on a go route.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:31 PM ^
Vanden Boom sounds like he should be out of the Grand Rapids area...
October 27th, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
That would be Van der Boom.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:49 PM ^
What if they had a relative of (fictional) Napolean Dynamite on the team?
Would the call be: BOOM throws to DYNAMITE!!
October 27th, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
Or Uncle Rico to throw it over them mountains to him?
October 27th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
A few possibilities. The most likely is that he contracted it before Friday, but the virus concentration in his system was not high enough to trip the test until Saturday. That's not necessarily a bug in the testing regime. Low concentration of virus generally means a person is much less likely to infect others. A testing system that is so sensitive that it picks up people who have the virus, but in levels so low that they aren't contagious, can do more harm than good. Tests are often designed to avoid those kinds of positives.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
AWQBHG
October 27th, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
Change God to virus and you got a winner
October 27th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
Uh, you realize that for anyone who gets a true positive there is necessarily a point at which they go from not detectably infected to detectably infected, right? For Mertz, it was between his Friday test and Saturday test.
It's almost certain that he was infected before his Friday test but the virus hadn't yet multiplied enough within his system to create a detectable viral load. The theory is that it's not contagious at this point anyway, so that's why they're cleared to play (but that's not necessarily the case and if they aren't contagious in the am, it doesn't mean they won't be in the pm).
Also, possible that he was infected sometime between his test Friday and his test Saturday but that would be a shorter incubation period than is typical.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:32 PM ^
Um, I can’t really answer your question, but I know he's sick. At least that's according to my cousin's nephew who's friends with Simone Adamley's co-worker's brother-in-law's best friend's sister's boyfriend whose brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Graham Mertz pass out at 31 Flavors last Saturday night. I guess it's pretty serious.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^
The B1G season moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and miss a few games with COVID once in a while, you could miss it.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:43 PM ^
I mean, the binary nature of tests means at some point you have a last negative and a first positive test. He likely got exposed a few days before the game as there's an incubation period between contact and positive test.