BTN Analyst Tom Dienhart has Michigan going 11-1 in 2013 (best case vs worse case scenario)
Kovacs helped defend it well most of the time and so did Jake MF Ryan. I think our defense will be more athletic this year and hopefully the zone reads and option plays don't hurt us this year.
Jake MF Ryan will be peaking right around Thanksgiving...
Muahahahahahahahaaaaaaa......
August 1st, 2013 at 10:59 PM ^
just b/c of their athleticism on offense, plus they'll be extra motivated at home due to last year's meltdown. That said, it seemed like our D adjusted well to them in the 2nd half. I think the defense does enough and we outscore them with a much-improved offense.
August 4th, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^
Lose to Nebraska at home? I would rank the games on the road at Northwestern and Michigan State and our home match ups against Ohio State and Notre Dame above the Nebraska game as far as difficulty. But that's just me.
That's what I was going to say. Maybe he thinks it will be a trap game a week after @Staee?
I dunno. NU at home seems a weird game to pick as a lone loss. Seems to me like if we lose that one, we'll be the type of team that drops at least one other one, too.
Even PSU on the road might be trickier. I just see us being very motivated after last year against the Huskers.
August 2nd, 2013 at 12:02 AM ^
On one hand, they return almost everyone from an immensely talented defensive front 7, they have a very good head coach, and they are pretty constantly bringing in top flight talent from around the country to fill whatever holes may pop up
On the other hand, specifically the other teams hands, TOMMY REESE!!!!
He said that's Michigan's best case scenario. He also says worst case is 6-6.
this.
I agree...minus injuries. A couple serious injuires to key spots and we could be worse than 6-6.
we have no chance to beat Nebraska next year at home? I can understand someone maybe making the case for MSU on the road or Ohio State being unwinnable but not Nebraska.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:58 PM ^
August 2nd, 2013 at 11:28 AM ^
You could safely predict a record between 6-6 and 11-1 for half the teams in the country. Is this prediction supposed to convey any actual information? Heck, without even looking at this particular team, Michigan has had between 1 and 6 losses for 46 of the last 50 years.
lol not sure how he thinks Nebraska will beat us, but OSU wouldn't?
Nebraska hasn't done much of anything against us the last 2 years.. NW is the only spread we have struggled to stop
It is just amusing to see how critics have become "smart" on predicting Michigan football after a mere two years. That being said, could someone kindly remind me who predicted us to go 5-7 in 2011?
Also, I see us only losing to MSU and possibly NW this year. The match-up with Ohio in the CG is a toss-up.
August 1st, 2013 at 11:10 PM ^
I can't see the Wolverines beating Ohio twice, but I can't see it going the other way, either. If there is going to be a split, I want to see Michigan lose the regular season game, but get the "last word" in the rematch for the Big Ten Championship.
Imagine how overconfident the blowhard Buckeye fanbase would be after watching Ohio win the regular season game. They would fail to understand that, if the teams are even close to evenly-matched, it is almost impossible for one team to win two consecutive "rivalry games" against the other.
The Schdenfreude potential of Ohio winning the regular season game, only to lose the Big Ten Championship to bitter rival Michigan the next week, is off the charts. Imagine how great it would be if Ohio was 12-0 going into the Big Ten Championship game, and Michigan kept them out of the "National Championship" game.
It might give Urban Meyer another tummy-ache.
August 2nd, 2013 at 12:22 AM ^
Why do people seem to think it's so much harder to win a rematch ? I'm sure if you looked at the actual results the team that won the first game would win the second anywhere from 60-70% of the time.
I see a lot of downvoted posts. The posts aren't venomous or anything. What's up w/ the M fan-on-fan hate?
62%.
Here's the list. Just the rematches, regular season results in parentheses. Rematch of season-ending game has only happened once; it's in bold.
ACC:
- 2011: Clemson 38, Virginia Tech 10 (/Clemson 23-3)
- 2009 Georgia Tech 38, Clemson 34 (Georgia Tech 30-27)
- 2008 Virginia Tech 30, Boston College 12 (BC 28-23)
- 2007 Virginia Tech 30, Boston College 16 (BC 14-10)
B1G:
- 2012 Wisconsin 70, Nebraska 31 (Nebraska 30-27)
- 2011 Wisconsin 42, Michigan State 39 (MSU 37-31)
Big 12:
- 2007 Oklahoma 38, Missouri 17 (Oklahoma 41-31)
- 2005 Texas 70, Colorado 3 (Texas 42-17)
- 2002 Oklahoma 29, Colorado 7 (Oklahoma 27-11)
- 2001 Colorado 39, Texas 37 (Texas 41-7)
- 2000 Oklahoma 27, Kansas State 24 (Oklahoma 41-31)
- 1999 Nebraska 22, Texas 6 (Texas 24-20)
PAC 12
- 2012 Stanford 27, UCLA 24 (Stanford 35-17)
SEC
- 2010 Auburn 56, South Carolina 17 (Auburn 35-27)
- 2004 Auburn 38, Tennessee 28 (Auburn 34-10)
- 2003 LSU 34, Georgia 13 (LSU 17-10)
- 2001 LSU 31, Tennessee 20 (Tennessee 26-18)
- 2000 Florida 28, Auburn 6 (Florida 38-7)
- 1999 Alabama 34, Florida 7 (Alabama 40-39, OT)
MAC
- 2005 Akron 31, Northern Illinois 30 (Akron 48-42)
- 2003 Miami 49, Bowling Green 27 (Miami 33-10)
- 2000 Marshall 19, Western Michigan 14 (WMU 30-10)
- 1999 Marshall 34, Western Michigan 30 (WMU 31-17)
C-USA
- 2012 Tulsa 33, Central Florida 27 (OT) (Tulsa 23-21)
- 2007 Central Florida 44, Tulsa 25 (UCF 44-23)
- 2006 Houston 34, Southern Mississippi 20 (USM 31-27)
No real statistics or breakdown of matchups. Just some ridiculous fantasy season put together with no rhyme or reason. I would take a simulated EA NCAA Football season over this garbage.
is doing.
For instance, Michigan loses to Penn State in Michigan's "worst-case scenario." But under BOTH Penn State's best- and worst- case scenario, Penn State loses to Michigan.
So he gives the game 2 completely different contexts (certain PSU loss vs. possible Michigan loss) between 2 different articles.
There's probably many more examples of this, but U-M/PSU stood out since I've read these for both schools.
In order of estimated probability, here is Massey's preseason take on Michigan:
| Opponent | Result | PF | PA |
|
Akron
|
0.99
|
43 | 10 |
|
C Michigan
|
0.95
|
42 | 17 |
|
Minnesota
|
0.87
|
31 | 14 |
|
Indiana
|
0.87
|
41 | 24 |
|
Connecticut
|
0.81
|
27 | 14 |
|
Iowa
|
0.72
|
24 | 17 |
|
Nebraska
|
0.59
|
31 | 28 |
|
Ohio St
|
0.55
|
30 | 2 |
|
Penn St
|
0.51
|
24 | 23 |
|
Michigan St
|
0.51
|
21 | 20 |
|
Northwestern
|
0.48
|
27 | 28 |
|
Notre Dame
|
0.42
|
20 | 23 |
If this is anything close to accurate, there would be six games which we'll likely have no problem in defeating, and another 4 in which we are at least slightly favored. I still see 9-3 being a fairly reasonable estimate given these numbers - in the games where the estimated probability is 0.60 or lower, I think 3-3 or maybe 4-2 on the more aggressive end is a safe bet. That being said, 11-1 would be above estimates (i.e., the most typical estimates given in various previews as well as on this board) and there's likely no way we are as ho-hum as 6-6.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:53 PM ^
So adding up his win probabilities gets you to 8.3. I also think the expectation is closer to 9 than 8. I would add a few tenths against Penn State, Michigan State, and Notre Dame. But I would subtract a tenth against Ohio State.
But I do think it's important to think about this from a Bayesian perspective. These aren't estimates some Platonic "true" win probabilities -- such a thing doesn't exist. These are summaries of the information we have up to this point.
Preseason ratings are based on an extrapolation of recent years' results, tuned to fit historical trends and regression to the mean. A team's future performance is expected to be consistent with the strength of the program, but sometimes there may be temporary spikes.Other potentially significant indicators (ex. returning starters, coaching changes, and recruiting) are ignored. Therefore, preseason ratings should not be taken too seriously.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:03 PM ^
I think we can definitely go 11-1 and I'm sure I'll get torn apart for this but with the one loss likely to be against Ohio...
August 1st, 2013 at 11:03 PM ^
August 1st, 2013 at 10:06 PM ^
August 1st, 2013 at 10:14 PM ^
Nothing will ever wipe away App State
Agreed.
The good news is that Dave Brandon, in his infinite wisdom, has seen fit to schedule App State in 2014 so we can all relive the memories again...and again...and again.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:06 PM ^
Yes please.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:13 PM ^
And Brady Hoke does not lose at home. Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I think we could blow them out. We held them to 23 points on their own turf when our defense was on the field for 90% of the game.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:36 PM ^
11-1 is basically the best case (other than the obvious 2014 season of 12-0), but that seems overly optimistic even with the conference being a bit down. I don't expect anyone to go 7-1 in conference, and that includes OSU. I figure the team will go 9-3 and then we'll see about the bowl game. It has a bunch of young talent, but beating ND, MSU, and OSU in the same season, in addition to pesky NW, seems unlikely. I actually think they'll beat Nebraska, but Trash Tornado part deux could definitely happen in EL, and for all of the loses by ND they stll have a solid defense.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:47 PM ^
Michigan has the talent to win all their games and gets arguably their 3 toughest games (ND, OSU, & Nebraska) at home. However unlikely, but it is not impossible. That is why these best case scenario articles are ridiculous. There is no game like last year's Alabama game on our schedule where Michigan is a two touchdown underdog before fall camp even starts.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:40 PM ^
I think this team has the talent and the leadership to run the table this year, but I think we will come up short and lose one game. I'm thinking at NW or at MSU are the best bets for a loss.
August 1st, 2013 at 10:49 PM ^
Northwestern and Ohio are my 2 "toss up" games. I think everything else is a W.
#1 - This is the best team they've had in years.
#2 - We didn't destroy them by any means a couple years ago, and last year was a last minute hail mary to get to OT.
How is this so far fetched just because they're getting more hype this year?
I'm sure at one point people thought the same about Stanford...then they just kept improving and kept winning.