Brian Kelly such a jerk

Submitted by BlueSpiceIn SEC.hell on November 26th, 2022 at 10:38 PM

Instead of letting the clock run. He just called a timeout with 17 seconds left, down 15 points.

Want hime to lose any game he is in.

kjhager444

November 26th, 2022 at 11:28 PM ^

I'm actually a big advocate that if you're down 14 you should go for 2 (in the 4th quarter/if you're expecting them to score no more points).

It's ~50% to convert on 2 point conversion so while not definite, the odds of converting one of the two 2 point conversions is ~75% which is enough to send it to overtime, but more importantly win some other times.  

Going for it down 21 just expedites that thought processing.

Joined: 10/13/2012

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mfan_in_ohio

November 27th, 2022 at 1:18 AM ^

I'll explain it better:

Let's say you have a 45% chance of making a 2-pt conversion, and if the game goes to OT it's 50/50.  I'll also assume that all extra points are made.  You're down by 14 and there's not much time left. 

If you are going to score two touchdowns and kick extra points, you have a 50% chance to win.

If you go for 2 on the first TD and make it, you kick the XP on the second and win.  This will happen 45% of the time.

For the other 55% of the time: If you miss the first 2 pt conversion, you go for 2 on the second.  There is a 45% chance of making it that time, after which you have a 50% chance to win.  This happens 0.55*0.45*0.5 = 12% of the time.  

So if you're down 14, going for 2 on the first TD gives you a 57% chance to win (if you are able to score twice), while kicking just gives you a 50% chance.

Of course, this ignores a few things:

1) How many good 2 point plays does the team practice?

2) How do you assess your team's likelihood to convert a 2 pt play? The break-even point is around 38%. 

3) If the teams aren't even, the likelihood to win in OT isn't 50/50.  That's why I supported Hoke going for 2 in 2013: the 2-pt play may have had a 40% chance to win, but Michigan with Gardner's broken foot had maybe a 25% chance to win in OT, so going for 2 is the play.

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bassclefstef

November 27th, 2022 at 2:01 AM ^

Indirectly, but yes. A student assistant filming practice at ND died when he fell out of a rickety scaffolding in high winds. I can't remember the details, but I think I recall reading that he had either asked for the day off, or asked to film from ground level, when he felt unsafe in the weather conditions.

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