Breaking: per Brett McMurphy--It's done, 12 team playoff starts in 2024
November 30th, 2022 at 11:59 PM ^
My understanding is that if it were a 12-team playoff this year. This assumes the higher-ranked teams win, and they move teams down who lose conference championship games.
- (1) Georgia - SEC Champion vs. Winner of 8 - Sugar
- (2) Michigan - Big Ten Champion vs. Winner of 7 - Orange
- (3) TCU - Big 12 Champion vs. Winner of 6 - Cotton
- (4) USC - Pac 12 Champion vs. Winner of 5 - Rose
- (12) Tulane - G5 Highest Ranked Champion at (5) Ohio State - At Large
- (11) Florida State - At Large at (6) Alabama - At Large
- (10) Washington - At Large at (7) Clemson - ACC Champion
- (9) Penn State - At Large at (8) Tennesee - At Large
- Semifinal 1: Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 4 - Peach
- Semifinal 2: Winner Game 2 vs. Winner Game 3 - Fiesta
- National Championship: Los Angeles - Sofi Stadium
The 11th seed would make for some very interesting debate between Clemson, Florida State, Kansas State, and Utah. But as you can see, Tulane is the only warm-weather team making the trip to the midwest, and they just played in Ohio on Friday night (11/25). Also, every other top 4 team gets pretty much a Home Game!!!!
December 1st, 2022 at 12:52 AM ^
You are definitely not going off cfp rankings.. or maybe something out of date?
You have Clemson hosting as the 7, but discuss them as an 11?
I think that OSU and PSU, the cfp 8, would host as northern teams as it stands now.
December 1st, 2022 at 3:43 AM ^
It’s not about the exact rankings, he is specifically saying that there would be a debate and in theory this could be the matchups.
He put together a nice post that probably took some time and your first reaction is to point out that his projections are wrong?
The point of the post is proof of concept.
December 1st, 2022 at 2:53 PM ^
This assumes the higher-ranked teams win, and they move teams down who lose conference championship games.
You are correct; I meant Washington, not Clemson. The rest is based on where teams would move to after winning their conference championship games, a point they use to rank teams.
December 1st, 2022 at 8:22 AM ^
I need to understand how the fuck Tennessee is ranked higher than Penn State by the committee when they have a blow-out loss to South Carolina.
Just remember the playoff is an ESPN enterprise and the SEC Network is owned by ESPN.
College Football is going to need a commissioner, if not there will be lots of unfavorable matchups for non-ESPN teams.
December 1st, 2022 at 8:36 AM ^
Penn State's best win is ... Purdue? @ Auburn? Tennessee beat Alabama and blew out LSU at LSU. It seems reasonable to me. The committee's real error is ranking Tennessee below Alabama, with the same record and a head-to-head win.
December 1st, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
Personally, I think there needs to be re-seeding after the first round games. If, for example, (12) Tulane upsets (5) Ohio State, then (1) Georgia should play (12) Tulane rather than the winner of #8. Does anyone know if that will be the case when this new expanded format starts?
Oh, and I totally hate that the quarterfinal games will not be at campus sites. Fucking totally sucks.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:03 PM ^
I think this will alter recruiting dramatically and help Michigan.
With the current system, all the 5 star players go to 5-6 teams since they can almost guarantee the recruits that they will play in the CFP. This is one reason that OSU can beat us on the recruiting trail. BUT, if Michigan is in the CFP 5 out of every 6 years, that would be good.
This new format will help spread the 5 stars around a little more and not bunch them up in those same 5-6 teams.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:01 AM ^
That is one of the intents of going to 12 teams. Alabama / Georgia / Ohio State / Clemson was getting stale.
December 1st, 2022 at 3:47 AM ^
I understand this line of thinking, but it’s too little too Late with NIL.
We just had a player de commit to go to 5-7 Miami… why? Because they offered a nice big signing bonus.
17 year olds aren’t going to care who is winning or where the best degree is from when someone offers them a 500k check to sign their name, and the other school - Michigan, In this instance- requires that they be their best self and earn their NIL money for the most part.
I agree In theory, but NIL has nullified the idea largely. Sure, some recruits may be swayed, and teams with good NIL AND that win may have marginal advantages over less good teams with similar NIL earnings potential, but recruiting is going to be determined by tiers of who offers the biggest singing bonus and where players are told they will earn the most, by and large. I hope I’m wrong, but…
December 1st, 2022 at 8:26 AM ^
Don't worry about that kid Miami is stupid, Giving a 17 year old a big bag of cash is never a good idea. Wait till all these NIL player busts start happening, them boosters aren't going to want to pay for a 4* kid that never sees the field.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:05 PM ^
This is stupid. And we'll see how stupid it is when low-seeded teams enter the CFP with interim coaches because their previous coaches parlayed their CFP berths into better jobs and prioritized their new jobs over a likely first round blowout loss. And we'll continue to see how stupid it is when the best players on the lower-seeded teams decide not to play in the CFP because they would rather focus on preparing for the NFL draft than risk injury while being blown out by Alabama or Georgia (thereby turning the anticipated blowout into a self-fulfilling prophecy).
Four was the perfect number. I had thought that for once, the powers that be in college football got something right. I should have known they'd find a way to screw it up.
December 1st, 2022 at 3:05 AM ^
5 power conferences, 4 playoff spots. What could be better than that?
December 1st, 2022 at 9:12 AM ^
Exactly. Eight is the right number. Conference champs, a G5 at large with qualification requirements, and two power 5 at large bids.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:08 PM ^
I’ve often thought teams were too penalized for losing one or two games in the regular season.
The new 12-team format should increase the likelihood of better non-conference matchups. I think we all agree our 2022 and 2023 non-conference games are pathetic. Let’s start scheduling home and homes with SEC and ACC because the upside is far greater with an expanded playoff.
December 1st, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
As they should be. Why play a regular season if every game isn't going to matter.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:22 PM ^
I like it, but there should be a limit on how many teams can come from one conference. Do we really need to see if the fourth place SEC team is the "hidden" national champion?
December 1st, 2022 at 3:30 AM ^
No, but I'd like to beat them nonetheless.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:39 PM ^
I like playoffs.
I hate that we still can't shake the bowls and that they insist on a 3-4 week break between end of season and post season. Home playoff games would be amazing.
December 1st, 2022 at 8:40 AM ^
Hopefully, that's just a function of the current tv contract and when it's renegotiated, the quarterfinals can be on campus (as many people have pointed out, this current situation presents fans of the top 4 teams with 4 straight neutral site away games if they advance to the final).
In terms of the break, I think most college presidents are going to be very hesitant about any arrangement that leads to on-campus games in the midst of finals weeks, and they ultimately have a lot of authority over what the system looks like.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:44 PM ^
A 12 team playoff is really a sweet spot for Michigan.
It is exclusive enough to not let just anybody in, but it will typically let Michigan in.
At least half of Harbaugh's teams would have made it into the 12 team playoff. That's good for us.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
This.
It's great for Michigan. People who are resistant to change will come around slowly as they realize how this is going to work.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
Good for making the playoffs, but it'll take some of the excitement out of the big games in the regular season. I hope people still put a lot of value in conference championships
December 1st, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Conference championships have MORE value now as there are spots for them instead of an invitational.
December 1st, 2022 at 12:08 AM ^
not a fan as I would have preferred an 8 team playoff...but it is what it is.
What I would love to see is an actual home field advantage for the higher seeds...not sure what it going to happen, but it would be awesome to see games in iconic stadiums.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
I agree! I've heard they're going to do home field advantage for the first round, but I'd like to see them do it for the quarterfinals too
December 1st, 2022 at 1:06 AM ^
Damn! All it took was for OSU to miss twice and row and Alabama to miss once. And then suddenly everything falls in line.
I kid. I kid.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:23 AM ^
Well, The Game was fun while it lasted...
December 1st, 2022 at 3:09 AM ^
its about damm time
December 1st, 2022 at 3:24 AM ^
Moar college football? Yes please.
Michigan needs to avenge some losses that transpired over the past couple of decades. The B1G acquiring a handful of PAC teams along with a 12 team playoff would provide ample opportunities.
December 1st, 2022 at 6:44 AM ^
So does this officially kill the rest of the bowl games?
December 1st, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
RX, I don’t know if it will “kill” them, but - many of those bowls will be on life support.
A question, let’s say a team is seeded 11 and loses its first round CFP game - which would be played at the 5 seed’s home stadium. Can the 11 seed then participate in another bowl, or is their season over?
What will the Outback / Citrus / Gator bowl look like in this scenario? How about the Holiday Bowl? The Poulan Weedeater bowl? The Taxslayer.com bowl? The MSU, oh - I meant Quick Lane bowl?
December 1st, 2022 at 6:58 AM ^
This promotes the teams that have incredible depth... And will milk the game for all it's worth.
December 1st, 2022 at 7:55 AM ^
Is this next years college football season? Or the college football season that begins in Sept. 2024?
December 1st, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^
I loathe this. Four teams were enough. This is just turning into the NFL-lite. Do we really need KSU or Milton led Vols team in the playoff? I'd joke that they wanted to expand because Alabama got left out but...
December 1st, 2022 at 8:44 AM ^
As we all know, March Madness has absolutely ruined NCAA basketball and made it just NBA lite.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
The NBA has a wholly different playoff system based on series. And more importantly, College Basketball has always had this postseason system, so there was nothing to ruin
December 1st, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
It's made the regular season far less important than that of college football. College basketball is all about March Madness and the regular season is only important enough to know seeding. College football means everything from the 1st game to the championship game. No other sport can say that. All sports don't really pick up until the playoffs. Might as well use a World Cup Soccer pool system and just focus on the playoffs. Get rid of the regular season.
December 1st, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
Regular season NCAA Basketball is basically irrelevant aside from determining seeding. Beating MSU/OSU twice in the regular season doesn’t matter if you lose first round of the tournament or lose to them in the conference tournament.
Do we really want this mindset for college football? Flushing traditions, pomp and pageantry, and excitement of a regular season is just not worth it to me.
It’s not “The Game” if you have it three times a year.
December 1st, 2022 at 8:27 AM ^
Pretty clear I'm in the minority here, but I'm very glad this is happening-and sooner rather than later. More games that matter for college football is something I'm all in for. Also, the joy I felt the last two seasons when we crushed OSU would not have been tempered in the slightest by them getting into a 12-team playoff. (I would be pissed this year, but circumstances are different.)
For those of you in my age bracket, are you telling me you wouldn't have loved to see Bo's 1980 team in a playoff? They had brutal close losses in South Bend and to South Carolina early, then rolled with John Wangler the rest of the season. (They also gave up 9 total points in their last 5 games.)
Or, 1985. Finished the season ranked #2. Lost their only game to then #1 Iowa at Iowa, 12-10.
I know it's just as likely to hurt a team as help it, but I'm all for more Michigan appearances in the playoff.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^
Correct. And there would not have been the BS of 2006. People are resistant to change but this is a good change, one that will let other schools have a shot at a title without it just being the SEC Invitational. Also, once the first round is done, they won't have the ability to mess with the matchups to protect those teams from having to play each other.
December 1st, 2022 at 8:53 AM ^
Well, now ND has no reason to join a conference!
December 1st, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
I actually like the idea of an expanded playoff system, although I still think they need to limit the number of teams making it in from a conference.
An expanded playoff does not minimize the importance of the regular season, like some say. I’d actually say that in many cases it expands the importance, both for more teams as well as the importance for the top teams. Michigan, for example for this year, could very easily have gave the Illinois game away and yet still beat OSU and be in nearly the same position that they are now. In a 12 team playoff, though, that Illinois game gains more importance as a win leads to a much easier path to the championship game than a loss would.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
You just said the problem. Same thing happens in pro sports, once they clinch their spot in whatever playoff, they can then rest guys and not put full effort in every games. College football is the only sport where the 1st through last game actually matter and we are destroying it with a 12 team playoff. Might as well do world cup soccer pool system and get rid of the regular season.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:57 AM ^
World Cup soccer teams have to qualify for it. You do know that, right? They don't just show up and everyone gets to participate.
And please explain to me how a college football team is going to be able to clinch a spot and then rest their guys without it affecting their ACTUAL SEED.
December 1st, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
They use a pool system to select to select which teams make it to the knockout round of the tournament. It's not a regular season. The pool is a round robin tournament to get into the next tournament. The only way a 12 team playoff would keep the regular season as important as it is, would be to make it all conference champions with 2 at larges, even though I hate rewarding teams for not winning when it matters. As for resting players, Michigan did that in the Illinois game. They dressed but sat several players knowing that beating Ohio State was all that was needed to get in the playoffs. The Illinois game already was a throw away game with just a 4 team playoff, with 12, it is even worse. He'res more examples. Penn State lost to both Michigan and Ohio State. What business do they have playing for a national title. Tennesse was dominated by Georgia and blown out by South Carolina. What business do they have playing for a national title. Alabama barely beat Texas and Texas A&M, lost to Tennesse and LSU. What business do they have playing for a national title. Those losses are meaningless once we move to 12 teams. I love that every week and every game matters in college football. You don't have that in any other sport and we are doing our best to ruin that.
December 1st, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
And HOW IS IT that those World Cup soccer teams got to play in those pools? THEY HAD TO QUALIFY! Do you remember the U.S. performance in 2018 at The World Cup? NO. You don't. Because they didn't qualify. But keep using that analogy that has no relevance to college football or the future 12 team playoff.
I'm so glad people with your thought process are not running things now. You would prefer to keep the Alabama Invitational and have all of the top talent go to a few schools.
It's happening, whether you like it or not.
December 1st, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
World Cup Soccer uses a convoluted point system to show who qualifies, but it is still all essentially one big round robin to determine the points. Once again, I don't like the system now. It should be champions only. But your logic is very flawed. By saying you don't like the invitational style now, you're alluding to the problem. A 12 team playoff in this format with 6 at larges, just adds to the invitational, not remove it. If it were 10 comference champions with 2 at larges, I could get behind that even though I hate teams getting in that don't win their way in when it matters. Just because in past years, Michigan would have benefitted, doesn't make it right. Tell me, in what way do Penn State, Alabama, Tennesse, Washington deserve a shot at the national title this year? At least Utah, Clemson, and Kansas State have a shot at conference titles and winning when it counts. I leave out Ohio State because they blew their chance is a given.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
I have mixed feelings about it. 6-8 seemed best but, selfishly, if it's 12 then you'd legit have a chance for UM to be in every single year...even with 2 losses. On one hand it could take a little out of the regular season but it also means your dreams are not over with one loss or even two if you are a legit good team.
December 1st, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
Flex, I have always been a fan of an 8 team playoff. The P5 champs, plus two At Large - which may include a G5 conference champ, or two.
This puts ND in a spot to either qualify as an At Large, or join a conference.