Bill Connelly (S&P Guru): Michigan's D has been historically great
Bill Connelly has gone into some detail on his S&P+ numbers for Michigan's D so far. I'm sure most of us already knew or intuited much of this, but the numbers are staggering all the same. The highlight to me is something that Ace has already tweeted--namely, that Michigan is not only the best statistical D, but that there is a cavernous gulf between them and whoever second place is.
October 25th, 2016 at 10:35 AM ^
We are only 8 weeks in -- gotta keep it up the rest of the season to really be considered "historically great"
October 25th, 2016 at 11:38 AM ^
No victory laps should be taken just yet.
But they are a hell of a lot of fun to watch!
October 25th, 2016 at 12:30 PM ^
I don't want to draw any conclusions yet. I know they are doing well, I just want to win the next game.
October 25th, 2016 at 11:57 AM ^
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October 25th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^
We can't talk about how good or bad a unit is until we beat OSU and MSU.
October 25th, 2016 at 12:00 PM ^
With the games upcoming, we might basically lock in historically great season stats before we even play OSU. 7 games in and we are still only giving up like 12% on third downs. 24% was the record. If we averaged 36% over the next 5 games, we'd still likely set the record.
And with games coming up against a sparty team that can barely put up points, Maryland, Indiana, and a struggling Iowa team, we could really put up some amazing numbers. It would surprise me if any of those teams put up more than 14 points, and I'd expect we can hold all of them to under 10.
October 25th, 2016 at 12:34 PM ^
We've faced some good offenses in PSU and Colorado and we're still #1. The upcoming schedule has MSU, Iowa, Maryland, and Indiana. You think any of those four is going to do anything against us? No. No they will not. In fact, I'd say any of those four wll be lucky to surpass 10 points.
OSU is another animal entirely, but 4 of the 5 remaining games are against teams we should kill. This is and will finish as a historical defense barring unforeseen collapse
October 25th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^
They were moving the ball OK until Liufao went down; they aren't the same offense without him.
October 25th, 2016 at 2:39 PM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 2:10 PM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 10:36 AM ^
Mr. Connelly with the understated enthusiasm of a 200 year-old Brit.
October 25th, 2016 at 11:51 AM ^
Some other impressive stats that weren't mentioned:
Only one opponent has rushed for over 100 yards against Michigan this year (UCF), and that opponent only managed 56 yards passing. Meaning no team has had both 100 yards rushing and 100 yards passing against Michigan.
No opposing player has gained either 100 yards rushing or 100 yards receiving against Michigan.
Colorado is the only team to score a point in the first quarter this year against Michigan (Scored 21 points, 14 on offense)
UCF is the only team to score a point in the second quarter this year against Michigan. (7 points)
Since the start of the Big 10 season, which is roughly the time that Taco and Jourdan rejoined the line up, not a single team has scored in the first half against Michigan.
No Big 10 team has gained more than 191 total yards of offense against Michigan, with the average during the Big 10 season being only 140 yards of total offense.
Broken down, this is an average of only 63 yards rushing and 77 yards passing given up per game during the Big 10 season.
October 25th, 2016 at 1:12 PM ^
Scruffy The Janitor and Don Brown bear a resemblance, no?
October 25th, 2016 at 10:37 AM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 10:56 AM ^
As good as the D has been, '97 was better. So far, at least.
October 25th, 2016 at 11:27 AM ^
Are you Marcus Ray?
October 25th, 2016 at 11:56 AM ^
I dunno... I watched that defense a lot, but I don't think I'd say it's better than this current defense. I'll put them even right now - and throw in the '85 defense, too. Lets see what happens in the two marquee games coming up - MSU and Iowa. If these guys shut down those two like they have everyone else this year, I say they are better than both '85 and '97.
Why those two games? Big games, under the lights, will make the opponents season, and have been traditionally difficult places to play. The stats alone say this team is better, but lets see who shows up when the game matters. (Although we have - UW mattered...)
October 25th, 2016 at 4:23 PM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 6:26 PM ^
Hard to make a full comparison. The '97 defense carried us to a national title. When it gave up 16 points to Wazzoo it felt like a lot. They averaged 40 points per game that year.
For the season, the '97 defense gave up 9.5 points per game, 106.3 yards passing, 83.4 yards rushing.
For the curious, I looked up Bill Connolly's review of 1997 and discovered that Michigan had the #1 defense in S&P+, scoring 8.6. #2 was Ohio State with 12.4. Michigan's overall ranking in S&P+ was a paltry 6, driven down by an offense that was ranked only 45th at 27.5.
But the '97 team really took control in November, when Michigan dramatically put Penn State to the sword and throttled OSU. And you-know-who was the one making the plays in that Ohio State game.
This defense is statistically right there with 1997 right now, both in advanced stats and in raw numbers. But the biggest tests are still to come.
October 26th, 2016 at 9:48 AM ^
That's fair. Nostalgia may be clouding my memory a bit I suppose, but I guess we'll know for sure in another month.
October 25th, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^
Statistics aside, they pass the eye test. This D is tremendously fun to watch. Even the 2nd and 3rd team play lights out to the whistle. I'm really gonna enjoy the next 5-7 games. The most impressive aspect of this defense to me is that these are all the same guys who were on a 5 win team 2 years ago and couldn't stop anyone.
This coaching staff is fucking amazing! We've all been waiting for this resurgence for years and its here.
All your footballs are belong to us! Go Blue!
October 25th, 2016 at 10:45 AM ^
What a concept!
October 25th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 10:45 AM ^
provided a fairly compelling blueprint. . .
October 25th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
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October 26th, 2016 at 1:50 AM ^
not to take anything away from Michigan's dominant victory... but if we played today Michigan would probably only win 63 - 3. Hmm... anyway... Penn State is peaking now. That is my point.
I hate Penn State...I used to love them. What happened?
October 25th, 2016 at 11:01 AM ^
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October 25th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 12:35 PM ^
they showed how a good defense can shutdown OSU and that's all I wanted to see
October 25th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^
Assuming Urban allows Samuel to be a ball carrier...
October 25th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^
Defense wins championships.
October 25th, 2016 at 11:08 AM ^
Defense wins Road Games.
October 25th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^
I don't think this falls back down like last season. Our stats took a huge hit when we lost our NTs for Indiana and OSU. Meanwhile Indiana's offense this year looks like it took a big step back from last and our depth is way better in the D line (Mone back, looks like Hurst could play NT in a pinch). Who's going to test this defense between now and OSU? Maryland? Iowa (lol)?
October 25th, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^
Agreed. For one, we have more depth to overcome injuries that we really, really hope don't happen (like Clark going out and still having 2 top CBs to send out there). Just as big, though, is it is far less likely that our future opponents will "download" our defense and come up with a scheme that will kill us. Don Brown's scheme >>> Durkin's scheme, and I have every confidence that if someone comes up with something that starts to work, Brown will effectively counter in game. Unlike a certain Game from last year that I won't mention.
October 25th, 2016 at 10:58 AM ^
And I love it. Go Blue.
October 25th, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^
that I want the offense to hurry and score so I can watch the defense
October 25th, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
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October 25th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
Higdon blasting through the line and taking it to the house
October 25th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
Because they are on and off of the field so quickly. Did I read that Illinois only had 38 offensive plays? Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed those 38 plays immensely!
October 25th, 2016 at 11:21 AM ^
Has there been a comparison using advanced stats between this defense and the '97 defense? I would be REALLY intrigued to see the comparison.
October 25th, 2016 at 11:54 AM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^
Example, the spread option isn't really a new thing so to speak, just a different variant on the standard option. There was a time when no one could stop the wishbone.
There were a hole lot more pro style offenses in the 90's, but the spread was there and the 97 squad shut it down then too. I think I would have to base it more on look of the defenses in action verse stats in this case. I don't think stats could really help in gauging them agains each other.
October 25th, 2016 at 9:40 PM ^
because they really prided themselves on their no fly zone bs.
Our defense has given up 50 fewer yards per game and a little over 3 fewer points per game than MSU '13. Which won the rose bowl.
October 25th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^
Against Michigan, they gained 39 yards in 54 snaps (0.7 per play). Total passing yards: 5. That would be bad for a high school offense against a college defense.
October 25th, 2016 at 11:34 AM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 11:50 AM ^
I'm getting pretty spoiled with this defense. Last Saturday I got real upset when they gave up a first down. How rational is that?
October 25th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^
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October 25th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^
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October 25th, 2016 at 12:24 PM ^
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