Bill Connelly Article on Michigan's Struggles
It has been a slow day and I stumbled on this Bill Connelly article that made some good points. I figured I'd share
October 24th, 2017 at 12:29 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^
The article brings very little perspective to what we Michigan fans look most forward to and have placed the most value on. Did we pay Coach Harbaugh as much money as we did to have the record we currently have against OSU and MSU. Heck, even Hoke pushed OSU to a final play or two from winning "The Game", but he failed. Does anyone think we will have a team in 2-3 years that will be able to beat OSU more often than we lose to them over a 5 year span? If we do, it will be because we hit BIG on all our recruits, because OSU is bringing a heck of a lot more elite players in than we have.
Do I think Harbaugh is our guy. YES. Do I think it is going to take him 5-6 years to beat OSU twice in a row. YES. I guess the prescription is more "patience". I just am sick of waiting almost 15 years for the "Glory Days" to come back. Perhaps they never will. The OSU game this year is gonna be embarrassing. Time to move to "acceptance"...we are what we are, which is the 3-4th best team in the Big Ten. Our QB situation (unless the rumours on Peters are false and hoping that McCaffrey is a STUD), doesn't seem to give much hope to the future to improve on that standing either.
October 24th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^
Im totally chilled. Just calling it as I see it. Looking at the "results" and "facts". I think we are the 3rd best team in the Big Ten and I don't see much in the next 2 years that will change that fact. Beleive me, I hope I'm wrong.
October 24th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 8:08 PM ^
Next year's team projects to be pretty good. Get a grip, man.
October 24th, 2017 at 10:06 PM ^
Next year's team projects to be very good!? LOLOLOLOL. What do you mean by that? That we will win 8-9 games and still lose to OSU? Cmon man.
October 25th, 2017 at 2:28 AM ^
It's difficult to beat OSU in the shoe as PSU will find out next Saturday. Our D will be improved, so should our offense, so it could be a close game.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:29 PM ^
Always upvote Bill C, guy knows his stuff. Check out his podcast if you haven't already, "Podcast Ain't Played Nobody". New episode will come out tomorrow, I'm sure they'll address the PSU vs UM game, always have good insights.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
Looks like the main page just stole your thunder. That is a great article, though.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:44 PM ^
Got me by 2 minutes
October 24th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
No place for that here.
(Logic and reason are excuses! /s)
Good read, more reason to understand that perhaps the sky isn't falling nor is the PSU loss indicative of our worst nightmare coming true.
October 24th, 2017 at 8:07 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^
Just don't fucking lose to michigan state and nobody is saying anything bad this year. Its that game not the psu one that is killing this team perception wise.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:01 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:11 PM ^
Looking like you dont belong on the same field with another team > close wins are far as perception go's.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:30 PM ^
Weird as this feels to say, I agree with AK47, losing to Michigan St. was a maximally bad event. It lets those cocky assholes strut around again(Seriously my MSU buddies have been insufferable the last few weeks and if you think this doesn't make people start to question the program you're kidding yourself), feeds into the narrative that Harbaugh can't win big games and is owned by the rivals and people are just damn sick of losing to Michigan St. and didn't expect this to happen the year after they went 3-9 and had a tirefire off-season. You lose to MSU because the offense can't seem to find it's own ass with both hands, a flashlight, and a map and people are going to start asking questions because they're frustrated.
It also doesn't help that we had to watch sludgefart offense in the Hoke years and were told the team is young and needs time. Michigan fans have, right or wrong, decided that counts for less than nothing because it was a shield Hoke tried to hide behind when the wheels came off. This fanbase has just been through too much over the past ten years to accept that as an answer anymore, fair or not.
October 24th, 2017 at 3:33 PM ^
through a lot, but it doesn't excuse facts of what we have to work with this year and we had a lot of turnover. It's also possible MSU is a much better team then we thought they were going to be coming into the season. Things will turn in the next year or two and UM will be back, just relax a little.
October 25th, 2017 at 2:36 AM ^
Most of us knew this would happen. I was hoping one of our QB would take a step to the next level and may be this young offense would become explosive. It doesn't look like that will happen this season. I'm not sure what has happened to Peters, hard to believe that O'Korn is out dueling him in practice. Next season either Dylan or Peters will dethrone Sp8 and we may actually have a QB who can make plays and help move the offense along.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:16 PM ^
Suppose McDoom catches the ball against MSU and Michigan scores and wins. Nothing else changes about this year.. I suspect there would still be a lot of griping about how bad the offense has played and how bad PSU beat us.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:22 PM ^
The season would feel much different had we beaten MSU. You can live with an underperforming offense when you're winning. PSU was a bad game, but it'd be easier to swallow if we were 6-1 and still had a shot at a division title.
October 25th, 2017 at 5:38 AM ^
Very true. I hated watching the beat-down by PSU (like I hate every loss), but I could console myself with the "Well, there's a reason they are the #2 team in the nation." When you lose to a better team ... well, it makes sense.
But that's not what the Staee game was. Yes, part of it was bad luck (the monsoon hit at just the wrong time, and made it almost impossible for the trailing team to catch up.) But the bigger part was that we were out-thought and out-played. We weren't beaten by the better team. We lost to one that played better, while we played worse.
And that will happen sometimes. Had it happened against Florida or Purdue, it would hurt, but most of us would be over it by now. But when it happens against Staee ... well, it sticks in your craw and makes for a long 12 months.
October 25th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
fanbase to gloat over barely winning a 5 turnover gift. I agree that loss hurt far worse than Ped U. However, I hate both fanbases in general, for different reasons. That smug look on D'tinio's face make me want to punch him every time I see it.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:36 PM ^
I would have given that scenario a shot. One loss to the #2 team and likely ranked no lower than 10th. Playoff still a possiblity.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:05 PM ^
In the least. The most disconcerting thing is Harbaugh's inability to recruit a quality QB for 3 years after being told by everyone in football that he's a "QB guru."
October 24th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^
How do you know he hasn't recruited a quality QB? Sure, I wish Peters was far enough along that he would be ahead of JOK. But, the fact that he isn't there yet is not definitive proof that he won't be a quality qb. Further, even if Peters doesn't develop that could be for a multitude of reasons beyond Harbaugh not being a "QB guru".
October 24th, 2017 at 3:35 PM ^
as of now Peters and McCaffery are unknowns, but they both seem to have a ton of upside. For all we know we have the next Tom Brady on the roster and will take his spot next year. Remember it took Brady a while to crack the lineup and become the QB he did, he damn near transferred. Think people are making more of this QB thing then there is.
October 24th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
We had a first year starter at QB and it was just painful to see that Michigan team eek out narrow victories over bad teams:
- 12-9 over 3-9 Iowa
- 12-6 over 3-9 Northwestern
- 21-10 over 4-7 Indiana
- 15-10 over 5-6 Minnesota
Thank God for the defense--they had a safety in every one of those games except against Indiana.
That QB sucked, and it's not a surprise that Carr platooned him with a big name recruit for the start of the next season. Can't think of his name--Tom something. It'll come to me eventually.
October 24th, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^
Started with those two godawful losses to ND and Cuse, then we won a bunch of rock fights, then the offense finally started clicking and we hung 27 (27!) on Wisconsin and Penn St. Then we lost to OSU but that was one of their juggernaut teams.
October 25th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
Man, it was pre-internet and there were still a TON of cries for Drew Henson back then. Can only imagine the message board vitriol to get that loser Tom Brady out of there and get started with the future. Like take the current "put in Peters" retoric and ramp it up by 100x.
October 24th, 2017 at 5:08 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 8:44 PM ^
I think the narrative of JH as QB guru has some legs, looking only at his Michigan performance. Look at how Rudock developed over the season. Speight was the same last year until his shoulder injury. And I am going on a limb to suspect that Speight never fully recovered from that injury. It is a plausible explanation for his poor play from the spring game this season all the way through to when he got mauled at Purdue. JOK hasn't been good obviously but he has gotten better. But I don't think anyone expected him to be a world beater based on him losing the job to Speight two seasons in a row, the second of which possibly featured a partially lame Speight.
So I think the jury is still officially out on QB guru for Michigan but there is some evidence pointing to a trend.
October 25th, 2017 at 9:58 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 4:36 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 3:20 PM ^
Alternatively, beating MSU makes the PSU game a top 10 matchup and the narrative around Harbaugh losing big games is even louder. It's a lose/lose situation.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:07 PM ^
Still concerned about this though:
Harbaugh has not provided enough evidence that, once he’s got all his pieces in place, he’s going to field an offense elite enough to take the division from Urban Meyer’s Ohio State, James Franklin’s Penn State, etc.
We all have this concern. The struggles this year on offense are understandable. But when they are resolved with older/healthier players . . . will it still be enough?
Is this a dynamic enough offense to win championships, not just keep pace with Wisconsin?
You are still going to have to score points - a lot of points - when you are in the Big Ten East.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^
See, to me this was the weirdest part of the article. Harbaugh doesn't have a great backup QB in year 2.5 and lost a bunch of guys on offense from last year's unit, but his last 2 years at Stanford his offense was #6 (2009) and #3 (2010), and the year after he left they were #8. In his first two years at Michigan, his offenses were 38th and 40th, and now with a huge amount of turnover and injuries to a couple of key spots...they're 85th. By comparison, James Franklin's offenses went 112th, 62nd, 18th, and 2nd in his 4 years at PSU, with the first couple of years featuring issues with depth and talent. So it's weird to me that people just assume Harbaugh hasn't shown he can field an elite offense when given enough time. Meyer is always trotted out because he's an outlier and his offense, for better or for worse, is super plug-and-play, but in most circumstances it takes time to implement your offense and put in players who can succeed.
I have no doubt Michigan's offense can score enough to win every game on a schedule; they only came up 5 points short all of last year. And let's see how PSU looks next year when the vast majority of their offense is gone (including possibly Moorhead) before we just assume they'll be blitzing Michigan every year.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:45 PM ^
doesn't have the same staff at Michigan as he did at Stanford...and with a success sample size of 2, what's to say that we aren't just hoping for lightning to strike a third time?
October 24th, 2017 at 2:04 PM ^
This is correct:
People are forgetting that Harbaugh's staff consisted of 2 future head coaches in David Shaw and Willie Taggart.
Those 2 are now replaced with a combination of Pep Hamilton and Jay Harbaugh... lol.
Tim Drevno is the only consistent piece and he was demoted for David Shaw at Stanford. What makes him anymore qualified at Michigan?
Changes need to be made to this offensive staff in the offseason. There was a good point made in the Michigan Monday post about Urban and Saban making changes to adapt to the college football climate. Harbaugh has to do the same.
October 24th, 2017 at 3:19 PM ^
Drevno with him to the NFL. And I didn't see the coach drag any of his staff with the 49ers where he consistently won 10 games a year as he has at Michigan drag his pro staff here, other than his son, who is family. And Jay Harbaugh is not getting fired, OK.
You want to analyze and judge this coach and his record of achievement, be my guest. Do it with facts and numbers and relevancy. Don't give me some lame request for change based on your lack of understanding about the currency of the situation just bedause you're frustrated.
The guy is getting paid big because thqt's what it took to get him here. And while he hasn't delivered championships yet, he has put this team in a postion to seriously contend for them, whcih is not where this program was under Hoke. So, excuse me when I point out that nobody was picking this team to win the Big Ten this year, and now that that prediction has been validated by results on the field, bitch about the team's play and coaching all you want.
Only don't expect me to validate opinions about unreasonable expectations that few if anybody anywhere endorsed except in their own Happy Valley minds.
A coach has the right to assemble his staff and evaluate its work and performance based on the results of the program, and Harbaugh has lost coaches from his original staff who are now the head coach at Maryland, a running backs coach for the Buffalo Bills and the OC at UCLA.
He's won 10 games a year and is still on track to reach that win level this year in spite of his team's less than exemplary performance this year.
October 24th, 2017 at 4:29 PM ^
Sorry I can't take your rant seriously when there are countless stats and objective measures showing how poor this offense is (2008 and 2014 poor in some parts) on this blog even. (see Ron Utah's diary)
My call for offensive coaching shake ups is based on facts and numbers. Just because you haven't read them (Connelly himself mentions them if you read his article), doesn't invalidate my opinion.
Sorry again.
October 25th, 2017 at 7:24 AM ^
His only experience as an OC consists of 2/3 years at San Jose State, 11 years ago.
He's the weak link and will play a big role in Harbaugh's UM legacy, for better or for worse.
October 24th, 2017 at 3:56 PM ^
This is true, but he also didn't have the same staff at San Diego and turned that offense around, nor did he have the same staff in SF and they went to a Super Bowl. He also has 2 years of decent-enough success here with mismatched parts; the offense toward the end of 2015 was playing like a top-15 unit, but they were bogged down by earlier struggles. So we have these glimpses of it working, and I'm fine rolling the dice on that happening again.
October 24th, 2017 at 4:14 PM ^
October 25th, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^
But how did those players perform before he got there? Seems like a pretty good barometer of coaching.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^
What Harbaugh did at Stanford, and who he did it with on his staff and at QB, may not be as replicatable as we thought.
It may also have had a lot to do with those other people, and not just the presence of Harbaugh.
If we are on a straight trajectory to Stanford's 2010 offense and it's just a matter of time and patience . . . then I'll sit down and shut up and wait.
But I no longer think that's automatically true.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:59 PM ^
The "in year X" comparisons the haters trot out only so relevant after you get beyond the year one scheme install. College football has a ton of roster turnover and low sample size so progression is not linear and your place in the stats jumps around. Every year there's a new scheme install for about 1/4 of your roster.
The Penn State jump coincides with the emergence of a generational RB and a very good QB. It's Moorhead and it's progression over time, but it's also the particular Jimmys and Joes. Harbaugh's last two years at Stanford and the success the following year are also Luck's sophomore-senior years. Since then, Stanford has been both rough and excellent on O depending on the year. Florida State under Jimbo has been both excellent and poor on O, and he's a great offensive coach with fantastic QB talent. Oregon was great on offense until they weren't.
Based on what we know (Harbaugh's track record, program trajectory, coaching staff, recruiting, roster makeup) I have little doubt Michigan will be very good on offense soon. They'll also take a step back some seasons.
If you look at it all in sum and think differently that's fine, but I shudder to think what some on this board's reactions to Bo's teams would be.
October 24th, 2017 at 3:45 PM ^
"By comparison, James Franklin's offenses went 112th, 62nd, 18th, and 2nd in his 4 years at PSU, with the first couple of years featuring issues with depth and talent."
...and a completely different offensive system.
112th and 62nd - Pro style system
18th and 2nd - Moorhead's spread