Big Ten Basketball Tournament - Cancelled
March 12th, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^
"The first weekend of March Madness is the best sports weekend of the year."
This is the truest statement that can be made. And I was weirdly looking forward to bball played in empty arena's. The surrealness of it would have been awesome!
I feel the opposite. The crowds help make the tournament what it is, but its certainly something I could've lived without. But not having the games at all is just......terrible. Its still the right thing to do, but I usually always take the first Friday of the tournament off just so I can do nothing but sit on my ass and watch basketball for 12 straight hours.
Hope we've all got a lot of Netflix shows to binge. Especially if this shit bleeds into the college football/NFL season.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
Let me guess, a) your son will be playing in it, or b) you had a vasectomy.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
Bye bye March Madness......
Its the right call. But still.......FFFFFUCCCCCKKKK!
March 12th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
What a terrible and unlucky way for any Senior to go out. Thank you Teske and Simpson! I wish you could have ended your careers on a more poetic note.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
Right call. Still sad.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
We don't even get a participation trophy?
March 12th, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^
It was my understanding that there would be no math.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^
Interesting chart - we're probably pretty far up that y-axis already.
We definitely need some serology testing here in America (it's in the works). Get an answer as to "how many people who have not been diagnosed with COVID19 (e.g., show up on a case list) actually did go through an infection, recovered, and then cleared the virus from their system."
March 12th, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
Yep. Testing has been a major failure of the government so far. They have not just failed but stood in the way of other people doing it.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
Yep. Ultimately "how will this virus spread?" is a mathematical modelling problem.
I'm looking at my bookshelf now and have a "probability models" book from Graduate School, it had a chapter on this topic.
But the thing is - you can only build a good model if you have good inputs.
The key metric that we want to minimize/spread out is "number of people newly exposed to the virus on a given day." Over time, people are going to be exposed for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th time ... but they'll also have some antibodies too.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
As a complete non-expert: how do you come up with a formula for risk in this kind of situation? And how significant is the assumption of incidence homogeneity? Straight lines are easy to understand, but...
March 12th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
I'm a total non-expert too, but I'll try to work through your second question. In a population as large as the US, with the quarantine, travel, and social precautions taken so far, I would think that homogenity doesn't really hold. In Michigan, we've been at 2 cases confirmed since Tuesday night, and 91 negative, according to Michigan.gov. That doesn't mean that it's not still spreading or won't at a later date, but clearly there are fewer affected here than in other states and areas. As long as we continue to minimize contact with others, particularly across geographic regions or populations, I would think that the infection rate will stay lower in some places compared to others.
As you drill down into smaller and smaller populations, the assumption will hold better since there is necessarily less diversity - in a city where everyone is within a few degrees of contact with everyone else, I would think that the assumption of incidence homogenity is pretty accurate. But again, I basically know nothing.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
The assumption is pretty significant in this graph because it's basically saying that there aren't concentrated clusters of virus carriers in certain parts of the population. So that it doesn't matter if you go to a basketball game or a conference for pneumonia sufferers; the incidence rate is smooth across all populations.
Basically this graph is just like asking, what are the odds of an infected person being present at a given event? It's not saying that these are the chances you'll be infected if you go to a certain event.
NCAA hockey match should be closer to "Wedding Reception."
March 12th, 2020 at 12:05 PM ^
Feel bad for the players who have worked so hard all year.
I have a kid who plays college baseball and just as the season starts, this happens. Their annual spring training to FLA was just cancelled. The only upside is the school is allowing the spring athletes to stay in the dorms and continue playing locally. But other endeavors are affected as well at the college level. Those who are in theater or performing arts have to go to online learning at many schools. Activities are being cancelled, etc, etc...The seniors have it the worst. Most of these guys will never play again in this capacity. My son trains year round, and as a pitcher, it's hard to get real work in unless he has games. Bullpens aren't the same. Yes, trivial compared to those who are really ill or those who lose jobs and wages. But still incredibly frustrating and disappointing. Would we be in this position if we had been better prepared?
March 12th, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^
Any MGoDocs out there: if the country was to essentially go on lockdown for two weeks, how would it affect the outbreak? It seems like this needs to be an all-in effort, not piecemeal with some taking it seriously and others not so much.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
I'm not a doctor but an all out lock down has a proof of concept in China. Its a disease spread by contact, if people aren't in contact it won't spread. The US can't do what China did though so it probably won't be as effective
March 12th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
Random doctor down the street is not qualified to render a meaningful opinion. There are actual infectious disease experts--who surprisingly may not post on mgoblog.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^
I tried to reach a friend at the CDC, but she's too busy to talk to me. She texted back, just stay at home.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
Archie Miller and Richard Pitino have won more BTT games than Juwan Howard smh
Fire JH, he's so overrated!! /s
Yeah, but Xavier Simpson and Jon Teske only lost one BTT game in four years.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:20 PM ^
Im in the big Minority hre but I think its a complete OVERREACTION...All of it...last year 37,000 plus people died in this country do to th regular Flu...nobody said a word..nothing shut down niothing was cancelled and panic did not ensue like this....This doesnt look like it will have anywhere near that type of toll but if you listen to the media if you get it its fatal they way they are spinning it
March 12th, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^
I've been a registered nurse for 30 years and I have to absolutely agree with you.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
I'm not a nurse, but I respectfully disagree with you. Sure, for most people it doesn't do much. But what happens when a 30-something year-old has it and then transmits it to an older person who is much more likely to die?
Slowing and controlling the spread as much as possible is necessary. I really don't see how people can sit here and not care just because we aren't as bad as other countries as of today.
If we continue the indifference, it will get bad.
The same thing that happens when a 30-something-year-old has the flu and then transmits it to an older person who is much more likely to die?
It's not that I don't care. It's that I see all of these measures as pointless, because the disease is already here and spreading rapidly. It's too late to try to contain it, and the best thing that can be done is to (a) accept that there will be some deaths -- it's inevitable; (b) remind people about basic hygiene procedures; and (c) try to prevent fear.
I believe that the fear is at least as dangerous as the virus, at this point.
There's an argument for disallowing spectators, although I was firmly opposed to it. I can't see any argument at all for not having the competition.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
Warranted or not (which is what everyone gets all bent out of shape over), fear is a fascinating thing.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
My god this isn't some propaganda or fake shit. Italy thought it was and had the same feelings as you and now their entire country is shut down and Doctors have to pick who to save and who to let die.
We are doing this as a country to slow the spread so our Health Care System isn't completely overwhelmed and can't take care of those who need it like in Italy. You realize that the death rate is a little above the flu...the only reason this hasn't killed as many people is because fewer people have it AS OF NOW.
But at the rate it is spreading, this is completely necessary.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^
Critical Care Doc here: It is hard to truly know the death rate when we are not able to test every person who is suspected to have COVID-19. For example, in Ohio there are only 300-400 tests available in the entire state.
My institution will not have test kits available to the hospital system network for at least 2-3 weeks as they have to be tested and validated beforehand.
It’s probably reasonable to cancel large public events since we are still gathering information about the virus. But so far it appears to impact people who have multiple chronic illnesses and the elderly the most.
My Infectious Disease colleague advises the two most important things you can do is:
1. wash your hands preferably with soap and water.
2. If you have fever, chills, cough ect. Stay home.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
This doesnt look like it will have anywhere near that type of toll
Except it absolutely does?
"Congress' in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 70-150 million people in the U.S. — roughly a third of the country — to contract the coronavirus"
Pick a conservative mortality rate and do the math.
it is hard to make these assumptions when there is limited testing available.
With limited testing available, we should be playing it SAFE
Agree. Sucks but it’s probably the right thing to cancel March madness since we are still gathering info about the virus.
Hopefully this will force China to adopt more clean animal containment/management practices in their markets but that is probably wishful thinking.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:42 PM ^
if you listen to the media if you get it its fatal they way they are spinning it
I don't know where you're getting your news but that's not what's in the mainstream media. Maybe if you watched the MSM you would be less panicked.
Not minority - just in the less vocal segment.
First, the death toll from Coronavirus will be 10-30 times the "regular" fly. So I don't know where you get your not as fatal spin.
Second, even iif your 37K is accurate, you are essentially arguning that because alot of people die ofA, we shouldn't be concerned if that many, or 30times more, die of B.
I hope you do not have children.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^
Gotta love the Big East playing on. Are they allowing fans in the Garden? Looks non-empty there.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
Got to believe the NCAA's will be next because of this scenario: What happens if you are a couple of rounds in and then someone tests positive? You would have to cancel then and you have to believe the odds are good that someone on one of the 64 teams will be a positive test.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
Starting to get ridiculous.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^
Crazy Days indeed.
Watch for elementary schools to close nationwide, parents scramble for daycare, which will get canceled. Gonna be a emotional and economic mess.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
Then what, exactly, is my DVR recording right now? An hour-long session dedicated to John Beilein breaking down Mark Turgeon's complicated offensive schemes? Jess Settles composing haiku about each Iowa roster member? Steven Bardo's well-regarded spoken word performance?
Last year's BTT Tournament. Enjoy it. Put money on the Wolverines.
/s
March 12th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
The Ohio High School Athletic Association just suspended the boys and girls basketball tournament, as well as wrestling and Ice Hockey.
MAHA just cancelled the remainder of States, and USA Hockey cancelled the national tournament.
All K-12 schools in Ohio will be closed for a minimum of three weeks starting on Monday. The D3 (college) Ohio Athletic Conference has cancelled all spring sports. I anticipate high school spring sports will follow suit as well.