Anyone Emotional Hedge Betting The Game This Weekend?
I have never done this, and am not a huge gambler to begin with, but I have friends that do and was wondering if anyone is doing so this weekend...
Just in case someone doesn't know, an emotional hedge bet for one of us this weekend would be to take MSU (currently at +7) on a wager. If you take MSU at +7, then there are really only three outcomes and, depending on your emotional point of view, all are good:
1. UM wins and covers (wins my 8 or more); you lose your money, but who cares, UM won.
2. UM wins and does not cover (wins by 6 or less), so UM wins and you win your bet; this is the perfect world scenario.
3. MSU wins. This sucks, but you can at least take your winnings and drown your sorrows for free...
October 16th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^
Ahh yes the Spartan powder. Harbaugh's drug of choice.
October 17th, 2015 at 12:19 AM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^
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October 16th, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 7:21 PM ^
Shouldm't you be putting 100 on MSU moneyline? That way, if michigan wins you win 50. If state wins, you win probably around 50.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:29 PM ^
I think perfect world scenario is option 1 unless it's only by a point off (so like if we won by 20 I'd gladly lose my money).
And perfect-perfect would be betting and winning the over but that's fighting the hypothetical so
October 16th, 2015 at 4:31 PM ^
True, but that's not a hedge bet. And if you bet a ton on UM AND they lose/don't cover, you're falling into a Ketamine-level depression. That's no good...
October 16th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
Have to disagree that winning by 6 or less is the "perfect world." Perfect world is winning eleventy billion to zero.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^
He's saying that's the "perfect world" outcome if you hedge bet MSU against the spread, not the perfect world in general.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
I really think Michigan is going to win by a good margin.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
I hedge with beer.
October 16th, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^
with hog.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^
Yes. $400 on MSU $-line to win $1k. If that bet cashes, I'm going to buy a very nice bottle of scotch and drink it in about 2 hours.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^
Are you serious? You put $400 on Sparty to hedge yourself?
If you're pissing away that much money, can we be friends?
October 16th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^
Yep. I've had a good year so far--that $400 is all profit. If I hit it (i.e. Michigan loses), I pass the threshold of cashing out. If I lose, I'm still up for the year.
Hopefully I'm not cashing out Monday.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^
seriously? you can have msu and 7 in a rivalry game at close to even money but you choose msu ml at those odds?
October 16th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^
+7.5 at (-110) or money-line at +$250? Absolutely I'll take the money-line over the points.
October 17th, 2015 at 2:49 AM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^
The line just dropped to -7 and I bet on Michigan, because I bet on the team that I think is going to cover the spread.
And because Michigan will beat Sparty like a drum, they will cover the spread.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^
If the line falls to UM -6.5, punch yourself in the face for me... :-D
October 16th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
If I get a push and thus a 7-point Michigan victory, I'll quickly be going from 6 to midnight, and will not punch myself in the face, sorry.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^
But if we could just shut them out this one time, I'd be forever grateful.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:34 PM ^
The proper emotional hedge bet is betting on MSU straight up. You are happy if MIchigan wins either way, and you more than double your money if MSU loses - apparently helping to lighten the sting.
I have done this frequently with the New York Giants - my NFL team - but my emotions are too much for Michigan betting usually. I generally stay away entirely.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^
Don't call it The Game. It aint that.
edit: and no, I have not.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
Wrench.
October 16th, 2015 at 7:08 PM ^
October 17th, 2015 at 5:35 AM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^
I feel good in my heart and head that we win this one. Can MSU really just turn a switch on and play well after the CMU, Purdue, and Rutgers games? Their OL is banged up against our DL. Their DBs are in a mismatch against our TE and WRs. Michigan 28-13
October 16th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^
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October 16th, 2015 at 5:04 PM ^
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October 16th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^
In the abstract, history says they have and can do again. In 1990, MSU was 1-2-1 coming into the Michigan game, with a tie and a loss against unranked Syracuse and Iowa, respectively. They also lost to then-#1 ND by a point, with their lone victory being against lowly Rutgers. Meanwhile, Michigan was ranked #1 with a close opening loss to ND and convincing wins against UCLA, Maryland, and Wisconsin. The game was in A2, so everybody was predicting a UM blowout. Didn't work out that way, unfortunately.
Of course those were different coaches and different eras, and whatever happened pre-Harbaugh doesn't necessarily mean jack tomorrow. I'm expecting a tough nail-biter anyhow, and I've been watching UM-MSU games long enough that a loss to Sparty wouldn't be a total shock to me.
October 16th, 2015 at 6:01 PM ^
The biggest difference is that MSU now is undefeated, #7 nationally, and just beat us 6 of the last 7 meetings. Much different than the 1990 letdown game you referenced. Michigan is obviously not overlooking this team. I think Harbaugh has had this game circled since December.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
Other titles for this thread:
Anyone taking out life insurance on their newborn this weekend?
Anyone buying a discount blood diamond this weekend?
Anyone locking in the rate on their burial plot this weekend?
October 16th, 2015 at 5:15 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 5:37 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 6:13 PM ^
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October 16th, 2015 at 10:58 PM ^
This is what I meant. Planning for the worst is usually a good idea.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
31 to 14, and you can take that to the bank.
October 16th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^
I have a lot of season long bets for Michigan including them making the playoffs. Had to take Sparty +7.5. Without any bets on, I would have try to get decent odds on UM -13.5.
October 16th, 2015 at 5:02 PM ^
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October 16th, 2015 at 5:05 PM ^
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October 16th, 2015 at 5:10 PM ^
I've been a die-hard fan for about 8 years, and a casual fan for about 20. I don't think I've ever been this confident going into a game against a top-10 team. Yes, Sparty will give us a Super Bowl effort and probably hit one or two trick plays, but I know in my heart Harbaugh is bloodthirsty and wants to demoralize them.
I was nervous about Michigan dropping a stinker last week while looking ahead to MSU. Obviously that didn't happen. Our staff is too tough, smart and disciplined. Michigan rolls.