Annual Pick 'Em: 2023 NFL Wurst-to-First

Submitted by superstringer on August 19th, 2022 at 4:25 PM

ITS THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN... pick this year's Worst to First in the NFL.

Since the current divisional format (2003), 17 of the 19 years have seen a team win its division after coming in fourth in the division the previous year.  (Not even counting two teams in the 00's that tied for worst record but technically didn't come in "last" due to tie breakers.)  In six years it happened in two divisions (most recently in 2018, Jaguars & Eagles).  Most often it happens in the NFC East (seven times, including five of the six years 2013-2018); the AFC West used to be pretty inconsistent too (until the Broncos then later Chiefs ran roughshod), as did the NFC South in the 00's. It's NEVER happened in the NFC West, only once in the NFC North (Bears in 2019), and never in the AFC North until the Bengals did it last year.  Also almost never happened in the AFC East because the same team has won the division almost every year; the only time it did happen was in 2009 when Tom got injured.

So, it's almost assured -- someone who came in last place last year in their division will win their division this year.  Who will it be?  Your candidates:

AFC East - Jets

AFC North - Ravens (although Browns tied them in record)

AFC South - Jaguars

AFC West - Broncos

NFC East - Giants

NFC North - Lions

NFC South - Panthers

NFC West - Seahawks

I'll spot everyone a few pointers:  Won't be the Seahawks (see: history; division opponents; and QB roster).  Won't be the Jets, because they are the N.Y. Jets.  The Ravens look like the obvious favorite here; the Broncos and, maybe, the Lions, have arguments in their favor.  Jags and Giants are in crappy divisions so "who knows." 

But before you're so certain it's obvious... let's just point out, last year, would you have picked the Bengals to do it?  Or the year before that, the WFT?  Or the Bears in 2019?  It's hardly always the obvious pick.

More reasons for you Lions fans to get your hopes up, only to be inevitably crushed again. 

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NotADuck

August 19th, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^

Unfortunately this might be the year where going chalk and picking the Ravens works out for the best.  The Jets, Giants, and Jaguars would need to take big steps forward while the rest of the teams in their division take steps backward.  Aaron Rodgers would have to get injured for me to take anyone else but the Packers in the NFC North.  If the Texans were an option in the AFC South I'd be interested in them.  They could surprise some people and their division is weak.

Also, depending on what happens with Tom Brady, the Panthers might not be a bad choice.  That division is wide open if Brady misses time for "personal reasons".

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maineandblue

August 19th, 2022 at 6:34 PM ^

Go ahead and make fun of the Jets, jerk. But they were super injury plagued last year with a rookie coach and QB, have filled holes with solid players throughout the roster, and had what many people consider the best draft of any team last year. I'm not saying they're gonna win the division but pretty much everyone expects them to be vastly improved. All hinges on Zach Wilson and for me it's a total coin flip as to whether he might be the real deal or a total flop, but to completely write them off because they're "the same old Jets" is just ignorant. 

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