5-7 in 2018?
I was talking with a friend I trust on things related to Michigan football and he laid out what I thought was a fairly convincing scenario in which we go 5-7 this year, with losses to ND, Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, MSU, Penn State, and OSU.
The crux of his argument boils down to the OL failing to develop significantly (they need to be a lot better), Shea is not ruled eligible and Peters continues his performance from the South Carolina game. An opening loss to Notre Dame makes the mgocommunity restless and there are calls for McCaffrey, who is pushed into the starting job and doesn't show to be demonstrably better than Peters. Our inability to pass protect puts all of our QBs in a bad spot, and we still can't run the ball when we need to. Wide receivers continue to drop key passes on third downs, failing to develop one iota under Pep/McElwain. We defense our way to 5 wins but against tougher teams we stumble, and we go 0-3 against the rivals.
I wanted to throw this up to the mgoboard and see what you all think, if this is just an outlier position or if it sounds realistic or plausible.
February 17th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
I think people have missed the obvious explanation for Decateur Jack posting this - he is in love with his friend, and this is away of expressing his affection for and infatuation with him. Nothing other than true love can explain a decision to do something as silly as posting this. Declare your love Jack!
February 17th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
February 17th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
derpdy derp [go away]
February 17th, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^
>I wanted to throw this up to the mgoboard and see what you all think, if this is just an outlier >position or if it sounds realistic or plausible.
I don't believe this is realistic or plausible, where those words do not encompass Marshall style team plane crashes, or the sudden re-hiring of Brady Hoke as head coach.
Why do I say this?
First, let's look at this by comparison with this year.
General points for this year:
1. Fairly poor quarterback play. When you start three different guys for multiple games, including losing your starter to a season ending injury, and then losing the guy who replaced him and was doing decently to yet another injury, things are not going well for you.
2. Losses to MSU/S. Carolina that were close to being wins.
3. 10 replacements on defense from 2016.
4. Huge numbers of snaps by freshmen WR, and then we lose the best one for the year early on.
5. Youth on the O-line, plus a move to a blocking scheme that didn't work. With experience and a change up, Michigan blocked the run better as the season progressed, even in the face of QB play that was awful at times. When Peters was decent, that got better.
6. We beat Maryland at Maryland. We beat Purdue at Purdue, and Indiana at Indiana.
These things led to 8-5.
Why is this highly unlikely to get worse?
1. I believe, based on time in the program and talent of potential QB starters, things will not get worse, and the chance that Michigan could have, say, as good a QB play as Indiana did last year with Lagos and Peyton Ramsey is really good, IMO. That's without Patterson. With Patterson, I think Michigan's chances of being a top 5 QB unit are 50/50, or better.
2. Very little loss of talent/experience on defense. The very good to outstanding defense will very possibly get better.
3. All WR have more experience. Step up from freshman years are virtually certain.
4. Losing Cole hurts on the O-line, but the set of potential replacements is more talented and more experienced than Ulizio was for this year. . The Onwenu/Bredesen/Ruiz interior is a really, really good group, IMO. They will continue to improve from last year.
5. Look at the guys going into their third season in the program. It's the excellent recruiting class from 2016. Last year it was Hoke + month of Harbaugh. That third year in the program is a big step up. The experience X talent factor has improved IMMENSELY from last year.
With those factors, plus our record against the middle of the road big 10 teams on the road last year, I see zero chance we win less than 7 games. SMU, WMU, Nebraska, @Northwestern, Maryland, @Rutgers, Indiana are wins.
None of the others are easy at all. But I truly think 3-2 is totally achievable in @ND, Wisc, PSU, @MSU, @OSU.
I'm not scared of MSU. That is a toss up game on the road. I think PSU is worse in 2018, and they are here. IMO, those are the two most likely wins. Wisconsin is going to be tough, but I still think we have a 40-50% chance in any home game. If Patterson (or whoever) is good to excellent, that chance gets much better. On the road at OSU and ND are tough games. If we get good QB play, we could split those games. If we get 2017 QB play, we don't win these. I believe 2-3 is the floor here, with 4-1 being the reasonable ceiling.
So I think 9-3 is the floor, 11-1 the ceiling, which probably hits the Big 10 championship game, depending on how things shake out. I can imagine 8-4, but the QB play would have to be similar to this year, which I don't expect.
5-7 is just not reasonable. Too many things improve, and you'd need us to lose all 5 of the hard games, plus TWO of Maryland/Nebraska/@NW. That's not happening, period.
Rob
February 21st, 2018 at 10:25 PM ^
Wait, this was actually posted? How do you not immediately realize this is an extreme outlier position? Sure you can say it, but you can't possibly be surprised by the reaction.