31-29 Michigan Win Analysis
Taking the body of work of both football teams, and throwing out 5 lowest teams you get the following data:
OSU close games (Oregon, PSU, Neb) they averaged 29 points. The others (Minn, MSU, IU) averaged 52 points.
In the close games OSU averaged 126 yds rushing. In the others, 198.
In the close games OSU was penalized 20 yards more than the other team on average.
OSU averaged 440s yard passing pretty consistently.
The turnover differential was a wash over those games.
Michigan against the same group averaged 31 points a game. (sub Wisc and Wash for Minn and Oregon)
SUMMARY
If we score our average, and keep OSU under 150 yards rushing, win the penalty margin and keep turnovers even we should win this game 31-29.
That said - if like previous years - there are a lot of pass interference calls against us, Hutchinson and Ojabo being held all game with no calls, questionable ball spots, dropped passes and many of our big plays being overturned in the booth - then we probably lose big.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
Michigan has not had a defensive score against Ohio State since Julius Curry's 50-yard interception return in Columbus in 2000. One of those would help.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
Sounds good
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
I feel like they're gona lean on us, and every inch we give, its an inch we cant get back (thats what she said). There is no time in this game when we can take a play off, or 3rd and 19 and not be focused. That's what it takes to win rivalry games, and even more so against one that is better at what they do than we are at what we do.
I will always remember 2016, against OSU, more than for the bad spot, but because when we were up and JT Barrett couldnt move the offense even slightly and we were dominating towards victory, Peppers got caught with his head turned around and the defense wasn't set and barrett ran for 20+ yards and their offense started to move the ball from there. We can't have those moments. If John O'Korn can take us to the final whistle, this team can do it.
WIN. WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
I have an unshakable feeling we are going to win this football game. I almost hesitate to type that in this forum, because this is a corner of the Internet where I can count on being mocked unmercifully for simply expressing the belief a team we all mutually root for will win its biggest game of the year. Not only will I get mocked by Buckeye fans, Sparty fans, SEC slappys and all the rest, folks wearing Maize and Blue will likely laugh the loudest. Many people here will be giddy when they read this, anxious to trot out the fancy stats, recent trends and all other varieties of spurious correlations to paint me as an idiot. Did we, as a fan base, used to possess a collective hubris that was way too large? Absolutely. But this knee-jerk swing to the other end of the pendulum is embarrassing to watch. I don't know how a lot of you look yourselves in the mirror. You've cowered through this football season like you cower through every season. "We dismantled Maryland, but you know what comes next." And that's from the fearless leader. This has become a place where everyone comes to hedge their bets by vomiting their endless stream of doubt into the black abyss that used to be a fun place to come interact with other Michigan fans. All so you can tell the people who are unfortunate enough to have to sit and watch The Game with you that you knew Ohio's passing game was too stout or that Cade's ability to complete passes 20 yards or longer would cost us the game - and you have the MGoBlog Board Comment to prove it. If that's the way it turns out, to paraphrase the Dude, "You're not wrong, you're just an asshole." In reality, we have a great shot at winning this game. Ryan Day is not Urban Meyer. This Ohio team is not the '85 Bears. A true freshman quarterback is going on the road to face a team with two of the best pass rushers in America. Don Brown is en route to Massachusetts. Most importantly, Jim Harbaugh is not mentally broken - instead, he's experiencing a resurgence that anyone not hiding under their couch every Saturday reading Steve Deace's Twitter feed can plainly see. I don't care if we've lost to them 25 years in a row, our team matches up well with their team this year. And all that matters is what happens this Saturday between the lines at the Big House. I invite you all to grow a set of balls and cheer on The Team. If you'd rather cling to BPONE like the superstitious, pagan religion it has become for you, I hear Deace is going to watch the new Ghostbusters movie on Saturday. Feel free to join his fat ass.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
At the moment OSU is a 7.5 point favorite, it's crazy to say we should win as a touchdown+ dog at home. I would consider beating OSU this weekend the most shocking Michigan win since Rich Rod beat Wisconsin back in '08.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^
Even then, Wisconsin was only a 4.5 point favorite, despite their #9 ranking
Sadly, since 2000, Michigan is just 1-19 when a 7+ point underdog. The win was in Lloyd Carr's final game (41-35 over Florida in the Citrus Bowl. Florida was -10.5 favorites). Winning this Saturday would mean a return to the mid-90s upsets over OSU.
November 24th, 2021 at 1:32 AM ^
1-19 is just insane. 7 point underdogs have a win percentage of 30%. Now, I get some of those games were more than 7 points, but there is a reason for our pessimism.
Even 12 point dogs win at a 20% clip.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
Lot of 'ifs' in order to win. More 'likelies' in favor of OSU. That's why they're favored. Gotta wait and see.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
It seems like — other than dropped passes — all of your other “things that could go wrong” are being blamed on other people. That is a failure of imagination. Those things could happen, sure, but the two teams themselves have many more ways to help/hurt their chances.
People sometimes forget, that before the famous "JT was short" spot, Michigan had Curtis Samuel dead to rights behind the line of scrimmage before Jabrill Peppers overran the play, and allowed Samuel to turn 3rd & 9 into 4th & 1. It helps to make your own luck, rather than depending on other people. If Peppers had made the tackle he usually makes, OSU would have been attempting a FG there.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^
my Ouija Board was inconclusive
my Tarot card reading was vague:
"Your life lines are worn and weary, but Karma is on your side. Ye shall experience great elation in the future if you keep the faith. Your wicked enemies were short and shall pay. Khaki pants shall undergo great inflation. Venus is sexually attracted to your soul."
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^
I get it, no one thinks we have a shot. It cannot be overstated here that OSU's offense is pretty damn good. Ryan Day is a mastermind when it comes to play calling...I'll give him that much, and that's about it. Here's the catch...Stroud hasn't played against our defense and hasn't seen David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson yet. Neither has OSU's defense (since the Oregon game) seen a RB like Hassan Haskins that can break arm tackles and get multiple yards after contact. I am filled with hope. Hope that on Saturday when the game clock reads zeroes that we can be happy, happy with the fact that the team we love the most, finally did it. Finally we can hold our heads high and say without a doubt that we beat Ohio State and the Michigan football team is the best team in the Big Ten bar none. Then we go to the Conference Championship and beat the brakes off of Wisconsin or Iowa and then move on to the CFP. Have hope, anything is possible boys...anything.
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:01 PM ^
The thing about it is, those refs dress up as three first round NFL draft pick receivers. Biggest screw job ever.
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
not even close 42-23 Buckeyes. They're scoring TDs while we score FGs
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
I would give my middle nut for a victory in this game.
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
So basically if everything that always happens, happens, we're screwed...
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:56 PM ^
If we score our average, and keep OSU under 150 yards rushing, win the penalty margin and keep turnovers even we should win this game
LOL
November 23rd, 2021 at 3:20 PM ^
Agreed. Henderson is gonna break some long runs for TDs and Njigba is gonna have a breakout game much like Olave did to us a few years ago
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^
smith-njigba leads osu in receiving yards and catches, i think he's already broken out
November 24th, 2021 at 2:43 AM ^
Well, according to the Biletnikoff Award Finalists, not so much
November 23rd, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
Holding....#1 concern in my book for this game. As much as we need to pressure their QB, I'm sure there's going to be a lot of OSU holding. I hope the ref's are watching and calling the holds because if they let the holds go, we're doomed.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:01 PM ^
I'm sure there's going to be a lot of OSU holding. I hope the ref's are watching and calling the holds because if they let the holds go, we're doomed.
According to Meechigan fans, they're nicer, smarter, live in a better state, and only lose The Game every year because Ohio State cheats during recruiting and during games.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:43 PM ^
Original screen name. No wonder your over here as opposed to posting on a buckeye site with the 11 million other nuts named Brutus buckeye. Only second to fuck Xichigan
November 23rd, 2021 at 6:10 PM ^
Ouch!
November 23rd, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
If anyone thinks Mich with get a "fair" shake from the B1G officials, this must be their first time watching football.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:05 PM ^
this is hysterical
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
TIL: If Meechigan outscores the Buckeyes, they will win.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:30 PM ^
After much analysis and thought I have come to the conclusion if Michigan scores more points than Ohio state on Saturday when there is no time left on the clock and the game is over then Michigan wins.
Also I believe Diversity is an old wooden ship from the civil war era.
November 23rd, 2021 at 6:35 PM ^
Win the “Game”
Fuck Ohio!
November 24th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^