2020 FB Elite Recruits and Michigan's Lack of Inroads
Question for Magnus, UMBig11, or anyone who has some insight into Michigan and their recruiting abilities.
Michigan has won 10 games multiple times. Harbaugh is considered an elite Coach. The depth chart looks quite favorable for elite players at many positions. Thus, what factors are / have played into Michigan seeming to not be in the mix for elite recruits, especially for the 2020 cycle?
(I know its early) But looking at 247's top 100, Michigan appears to be in the mix (defined by either the crystal ball leader or secondary leader) for exactly one of the top 100, and that is #100 Kalel Mullings. By comparison, OSU is in the mix (CB leader or secondary leader) for 17 of the top 100 players.
Have the coaches failed to be able to make relationships. Does everyone else look at our 10 win seasons and not place as much value on them as we do? Outside of Michigan, do people not have the same level of confidence in Harbaugh and his coaching as we do? Would love to hear other people's thoughts too.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
Language is defined by usage. For better or worse, that includes misuse.
Also, read the whole dictionary entry for a word, not just the cherry picked part that fits your agenda.
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
Ahh... a prescriptivist.
How... quaint?
February 24th, 2019 at 11:21 PM ^
Word for word, you said you were laughing at his ignorance. You are not simply applying the textbook definition of the word.
When someone is ignorant (or naive), you can either educate them or you can shame them for your own benefit. You have made your choice quite clearly.
In my experience ignorant in our language has a negative connotation. In fact you used it as such. Perhaps naive may have been the better word in this situation.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^
I’m with ya doc, burn this OP to the ground.
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:30 AM ^
We have had a few chances since Harbaugh has been here to take the next step in program perception and status. We have not capitalized. The 2016 OSU game was a big opportunity missed. The perception of Michigan has took a big hit after the OSU game this past year also. In my opinion, that was probably the most important game of Harbaugh's college coaching career and it..... didn't go well. I don't think truly elite classes are really in the cards right now. We will have really good classes but we have really always had those. 10 win seasons are pretty cool but they are not exactly that uncommon or noteworthy. There are no shortage of "10 win programs."
Five years ago we were thinking Deathstar. Now I think the hope is "in the national discussion annually." Yes, I think the ceiling under Harbaugh may be lower than we hoped. But at least we are not still "before Harbaugh." After Harbaugh has been definitively better than before Harbaugh.
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
Lowered ceiling, Jumpman Football, it all makes sense now...
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^
I watched his Hall of Fame induction ceremony the other day.
What a dick.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^
Watch out that your expensive sneakers don't blow out.
Might have just been a built-in defect for all Duke colored shoes.
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
The Crystal Ball thing is a fun addition to the 247 service but it has made the early recruiting season concern trolls extra annoying.
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
Slightly less snarky response: could you re-frame the question as how accurate are the people who cast the CBs for other teams? Or why don't CB'ers who follow Michigan recruiting throw around the CBs willy nilly like analysts for other teams?
I don't follow recruiting that closely outside of listening to Sam on WTKA and what's posted on MGo (Edit: oops forgot TTB) so I don't know the answers to the above but they seem like valid questions to ask before hitting the panic button. That's not even to mention that guys rise and fall in the rankings 4 to 5 times before the process is done as Seth's analysis has shown... very recently in fact.
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:40 AM ^
Once again, you answered your own question when you said "I know its early"
And like others have said, the Crystal Ball and Warm/Cold stuff is not the end all be all of if a player has interest or not. The coaches are really the only ones who know what inroads they have and they are not telling. Think of how many recruits have popped up and committed that weren't the names featured heavily here.
Relax, enjoy your Friday, and be happy when football comes back in a few months
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
What year is it again?
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
You don't speak for me. I don't put any value on a 10-win season.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
I don't put any value on a 10-win season.
I understand patience is thin around here and we all want B1G championships and playoff appearances but to not see any value in a 10 win season is a bit strong.
I'm sure guys like Dax Hill, Chris Hinton, Zach Charbonnet and Mazi Smith would much prefer us winning 10 games last year as opposed to our 8 wins in 2017.
It's probably fair to say those guys would more than likely be elsewhere if our record was any worse than a 10 win season.
Edit: For the record, I did not down vote your post but I can see why someone would be displeased with your statement.
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
I am shocked that the elite fullback recruits aren’t lining up to play for Harbaugh.
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
(Turns on Michigan football game on a peaceful Saturday afternoon.)
Wait, what?!? It's 4 minutes into the first quarter and we're not winning by two touchdowns? The other team has the ball on our 42-yard-line? How can this be? Something must be wrong. They must know something! They've figured it out! They've out-game-planned us!!! We must be not really be that good. It's got to be the head coach's fault. I mean, he's so weird and socially-awkward. Maybe everyone just figured that out. This feels like the dream when I show up to school naked. BPONE!!! BPONE!!!
(Runs to internet, posts concerns. Gets honest responses from non-fragile people. Cries in cereal bowl. Turns off game. Drives to Costco and tries to get full on free samples.)
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
Don't you bash those samples! I love those samples!
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
My advice? Stop worrying about recruiting so much, and definitely quit following it closely. I watched it hyper-closely for 15 years or so, from when the websites went online to a couple years ago, but have since realized it's pretty meaningless. Yes, stars matter, but only IN THE AGGREGATE. Getting emotionally invested in any single 1 kid or 2 or 3 kids is a total waste of time and energy.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^
Remember people bitching about the 2019 class back in June?
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
And in December
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
Notwithstanding Magnus' comments, I'd consider this more like Doctor Mantis. Concern trolling.
In fact, Magnus has a vested interest in generating interest in recruiting 12 months a year with Touch the Banner.
Surely OP is justified in his personal concerns, but I am also annoyed by those (including OP) who repeatedly and openly fret and hand wring at every opportunity over starz and commits in February for next year's class. Wash, rinse, dry, repeat ad infinitum.
It's OT time. If you want to fret and hand wring, express concern and outrage that John Beilein's basketball team did not beat Minnesota by 35 points or some other fantasized paranoia.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
Is Harbaugh stillconsidered an elite coach (by people not on this board)? A shitty bowl record and getting killed by OSU doesn’t exactly scream “elite”.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
I get so sick of people throwing out the word 'elite'. Since Urban retired there are exactly two elite coaches in college football. Trying to justify how any other coach is at this point in time is laughable.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
I am assuming you mean Dabo and Saban.
I sorta consider Jimbo, Kirby, and Lincoln to all be close to that level. Lincoln and Kirby are a little too young in their head coaching careers to say that, but they're both off to excellent starts.
But I would consider Harbaugh a top ten coach in the NCAA. Can't do much better than that.
February 22nd, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
For what he's paid, Harbaugh should be more than just a top ten coach.
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:16 PM ^
" Since Urban retired there are exactly two elite coaches in college football. "
Bingo... and Dabo needed this years National Championship to enter the ranks of elite.
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:25 PM ^
to be candid, i think dabo needed a moving van full of PED's for his team so that he could be considered 'elite'. better coaching through chemistry!
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
The bowl record is all-but-meaningless. With the exception of the CFP, they're exhibition games played a month after the season ends which several draft-eligible players choose not to participate in (as is their right). Whatever.
The Ohio State criticism is valid, but two of those games were complete tossups that UM lost--one due to brutal officiating, the other due to a third-string QB playing like a third-string QB.
Also, if you don't include head-to-head games, UM (26-5) is only a game behind Ohio State (27-4) in B1G games since Harbaugh was hired. And Harbaugh took over a team that lost to fucking Rutgers the year before he arrived.
They're already the clear #2 in the conference. Ohio State's the last hurdle to clear.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
Ultimately, it's just early in the 2020 process.
When I saw the post a week or two ago that was semi-similar to this one, I went and looked at the team rankings on 247. Georgia, who has been in the top THREE of the recruiting rankings for the last three years, is currently ranked 20th. That is very telling to me as they have been dominant / generou$ the last few years. I didn't go looking at their Crystal Ballz or anything to see who Georgia is projected to get and those can be important. But I am not too concerned for Michigan when it is this early in the 2020 recruiting cycle and we just had some MAJOR staff turnover with Mattison, Washington, and Hamilton all leaving. Gattis and the other new assistants are still a little fresh and need some more time to get acclimated / offer and build relationships with their guys.
Something I am very excited about is Harbaugh handing over the reigns to the offense means he can be more involved and active in recruiting, which I think is important.
But yeah, overall it's just super early and the new guys need some time to scout and build relationships.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
I bet they just forgot to recruit people for 2020, it happens.
February 22nd, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
There are/will be elite players again in 2020, Harbaugh will see to it.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^
Agree with all the earlier comments on “why” - early in the cycle for rankings and individual recruitments, M insiders don’t CB kids with strong info etc.
That said - Coach Harbaugh noted offhandedly in the last AED podcast that they were “a bit late” (or similar) getting in on recruitments of some players last year — sorry I forget the specifics but remember the reference clearly.
I think the coaching changes show a shift toward more focus on recruiting. Other than the 2 guys we lost to OSU, none of the coaches that have moved on were great recruiters. I believe Lorenz said recently on the 247 podcast that recruiting is at least a large percentage “effort” so even maybe Mattison is fading as he gets older.
The new M guys are young and aggressive but new to most of the kids we are chasing in 2020 so it may take time to build. As these recruitments take time an example would be the 5 star OL from Michigan (Rogers?). M was way out on this recruitment as early as last year until Warriner came in. M is still not in his “top” list but insiders say we will have a good shot when the time comes —- he has been on campus a lot recently...,exact same was mentioned by Lorenz about another top 100-ish prospect -(can only remember he was an out of state kid).
Also kids get moved as evaluations come in. The QB we have in 2020 just got re-ranked by Rivals and is now a composite 4-star even before 247’s re-rank. On the “Notorious B1G” podcast by 247 yesterday, Allen Trieu noted that his recent CB to Michigan of 2020 DE (Braiden Hutchison?) is expected to move WAY up into the top 247 in the next re-rank.
TLDR - (If you aren’t trolling) just relax and let things unfold......
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
GMatt was definitely slowing down as a recruiter. He went from one of the best on the D to squarely in the middle over the last couple cycles.
Michigan recruiting should really improve with the staff turnover. If we look good on O next year, we should kill in 2020 and 2021 recruiting.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
Its 9 months to signing day Jerry. chill.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:06 AM ^
Well every year you hear little about the Wisconsin Badgers offensive line or running backs but you know the results. And in 2009 a little known recruit from Stoney Creek High School right here in Michigan got what a 2 star on the recruiting trail? But yet became the number one pick in the 2013 NFL draft! So it becomes want and desire from the recruit plus coaching development, so you just never know, well I guess you do but 4 years later.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^
The rankings will change half a dozen times before they are finalized.
Charbonnet was ranked #431 on January 31st last year, now he’s in the top 50. We saw quite a few players make significant leaps up the rankings. JD Johnson appears to be on that trend as well. This time last year, nobody had a clue that Dax Hill was even interested, let alone a potential commit.
You people need to stop worrying about rankings a year in advance (if you worry about them at all) and need to stop looking at interest lists this far in advance. None of the crystal balls mean anything for a bunch of players who aren’t committing until the end of summer and won’t sign until at least December. Every single thing you are worried about, will change.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
OP, I think the problem lies mostly in your thread title, specifically the use of the word "lack." I, for one, thought that you were Maizen or everyone would call you Maizen. I came into this thread expecting entertaining snark and negbanging.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Thank god this new topic has been put forth for what I can only assume will be thoughtful and coherent discussion.
The short answer - Harbaugh is a monster and the coaches are terrible and Michigan football is destined to lose forever.
February 22nd, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
El oh el at thinking UMBig11 is an expert. Thanks for the laugh.
February 22nd, 2019 at 4:03 PM ^
I guess you haven't been paying any attention to the OSU game the last four years.
Harbaugh has certainly pulled Michigan out of the gutter that Hoke unwillingly left it in. But the national perception of Harbaugh's ability to take Michigan to that next step from a good-to-great program to a great-to-elite, or truly elite program, has taken massive, possibly irreparable blows in the last three seasons.
2016 - HUGE missed opportunity to beat OSU. Winning that game would've changed the entire trajectory of Harbaugh's tenure up to this point, but we blew it. Absolutely blew it. Would've won the Big Ten and made the playoffs, and Harbaugh's entire tenure, his cooky antics, the $9 million a year, recruiting sleepovers, would've been legitimized right then and there.
2017 - the offense.....I just won't even go there. And then another blown opportunity to beat OSU and blowing a 14 pt lead.
2018 - OSU looked and played like shit almost the entire year, whereas Michigan looked like it was getting stronger and stronger by the week. It looked like it may finally be "the year." Then the OSU game happened, arguably the biggest collegiate coaching game of Harbaugh's entire life....and his team could not have looked more woefully unprepared for what OSU threw at it. Michigan was thoroughly embarrassed on national television, gave up the most points its ever given up against OSU. They looked like they didn't belong on the same planet as OSU, much less the same football field.
So you wonder why Michigan doesn't get more looks on the recruiting trail? Its the results, pal. The program shits its collective pants in the biggest game of the season every single year, and then goes out with a resounding thud in almost all of its bowl games, to end the season with the whole country wondering what it ever saw in Michigan. Harbaugh had better hope that Ryan Day is a real step down from Meyer, because if he isn't, we're in for a world of hurt for the next 10-20 years.
February 22nd, 2019 at 9:31 PM ^
I’m hopping Gattis and Warinner are huge steps up from Pep and Drevno. Michigan has been more than good enough to do better than 10 wins for all but one of Harbaugh’s years here.
The defense wins games when the offense sucks. The offense never bails out the defense and I really hope Gattis anc Warinner can can get it done.
February 23rd, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
I am also very very concerned that we have no recruiting inroads for elite fullback prospects.
February 24th, 2019 at 8:19 PM ^
O and 4 against Ohio State. The last one a 60 + point defensive debacle. As I just mentioned on a basketball board neither team surprises any of their rivals much, especially the football team. Harbaugh is not Elite. Elite coaches devise game plans that typically surprise their rivals. Our talent has had every chance of winning all of the last 4 games. Harbaugh has had them under prepared and under motivated for all of them. Seriously why would any Elite player wanting to play in the NFL not choose Ohio State over Michigan?
February 24th, 2019 at 8:22 PM ^
O and 4 against Ohio State. The last one a 60 + point defensive debacle. As I just mentioned on a basketball board neither team surprises any of their rivals much, especially the football team. Harbaugh is not Elite. Elite coaches devise game plans that typically surprise their rivals. Our talent has had every chance of winning all of the last 4 games against OSU. Harbaugh has had them under prepared and under motivated for all of them. Seriously why would any Elite player wanting to play in the NFL not choose Ohio State over Michigan?
February 24th, 2019 at 8:54 PM ^
O and 4 against Ohio State. The last one a 60 + point defensive debacle. As I just mentioned on a basketball board neither team surprises any of their rivals much, especially the football team. Harbaugh is not Elite. Elite coaches devise game plans that typically surprise their rivals. Our talent has had every chance of winning all of the last 4 games against OSU. Harbaugh has had them under prepared and under motivated for all of them. Seriously why would any Elite player wanting to play in the NFL not choose Ohio State over Michigan?