2018 v 2016: Where do you see this year’s team in comparison?
The 2016 team was an extremely talented and experienced group. Evidence to that is the amount of draft picks that contributed to that team. My question is: how do you compare, position by position this year’s team to 2016?
Personally I have 2018 being better at the: QB, RB, WR2, Slot, TE #2, LG, SDE, MLB, CB #2, one of the safeties, and K
Even to 2016: FB, RT, WDE, and Viper
Weaker than 2016: WR #1, TE #1, LT, C, RG, both DT, ILB, CB #1, S, P.
Preseason wise how do you expect this roster to hold up to 2016?
August 12th, 2018 at 7:52 AM ^
I like/agree with your assessment. There are many similarities here...I call the two teams as being very even. I believe the ceiling for 2018 is higher on both sides of the ball. The 2016 team was a play away from playing in Indy and likely in the final four.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:28 AM ^
Agree on McCray. Loved how tough he was but speed was a hindrance on his game. One guy that got exposed in the passing game. I think his replacement will be less of a passing liability and be just as sufficient as McCray in the run game. Not as big but speed will kill. Another guy we can send up the middle and get home quick not relying on Bush or Hudson to bring it.
Overall, 2018 with an increase in speed and an experienced group in year 3 of Brown, will be more dynamic in looks and schemes that will wreck havoc on offenses. Just as Bush was a monster out the gate, it was Hudson that picked it up as the year progressed when offenses keyed on Bush. You key on one guy and the D this year will have more weapons to counter with. Will force a lot if 1 on 1 matchups and that's a huge advantage up front. We return 9 starters from a group that was dominant last year and replace those 2 with guys that won't have a huge drop-off. The 9 other guys will all be better than last year so that will cover a lot of deficiencies, if any, for those new guys.
Add in an offense that can't possibly be any worse than last year. Even if they get 1 or two first downs a drive, punt, and give the other team 80 yards to score I like this defense to hold up.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:14 AM ^
I'm confused about this exercise. Are we supposed to be comparing our expectations for this roster to our expectations for the team in 2016 or to how 2016 played out? Or somehow do both?
August 12th, 2018 at 7:32 AM ^
"Undefeated when healthy" does not equal "good". All the chatter is that shea is actually "good". Shea gets the nod over speight, imo.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
About comparing Gary and Wormley: Wormley had some very good games, and at times appeared unblockable in pass rush. But I don't _think_ he routinely drew the sorts of double-teams that Gary does. (On another note, in recent video, Gary advising younger D-lineman about having a short memory sounds like what he said about Wormley and Charlton advising him when he was a freshman.)
About comparing (presumably) Patterson and Speight: Patterson has greater upside, and if the O-line hasn't gelled early in the season, his mobility makes it more likely that he'll be able to stay upright. (Of course, we all hope that unlike the QBs last year, whoever is this year's QB won't have to keep running for his life.)
About comparing Ruiz and Cole: Difficult to know for sure about Ruiz, given that he's had limited snaps at center. Somewhat similar comparison in that the performance of the LT is now a question mark.
About comparing Ross and McCray: I agree that Ross is a question mark. As fans, we were all frustrated by McCray's athletic limitations (and probably underappreciative of his ability to position his teammates on defense).
August 12th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
I think Gary/Winovich bring a lot more consistency than Worlmey/Taco. Wormley tended to disappear for big stretches of games or entire games. He recorded no stats during Hawai'i or MSU, and only had a single assisted tackle in 2 games. And Taco was great in the second half of the season, but he started out slow. He had 4 sacks in the first 9 games, including 3 games where he recorded no stats. In the last 4 games he had 6.5 sacks and a minimum of 4 tackles.
So I don't think it's a stretch to say Gary/Winovich will be better as they are more consistent players and can be more productive in college.
August 13th, 2018 at 1:01 AM ^
This couldn't be more wrong. Wormley and Taco were very, very steady seniors. Wormley may not have been flashy as a pass rusher but he was (per PFF) one of the, if not the best run stopping SDE in football that season. That was a constant. Taco was also very good in that Dept.
Winovich has a high sack rate but also isn't nearly as good as Taco was at run stopping so he gives up more plays than Taco did.
I imagine Gary is going to take another leap from last year but he made a lot sophomore mistakes that gave up big plays last year and Wormley never did that his senior year. Gary could be better than Wormley 2016, but he has further to go in terms of consistency and productivity than people think.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:32 AM ^
Chesson and Darboh seemed really good to me. I remember many spectacular leaping or diving catches, and they would get open a lot. The 2018 wide receivers seemed not to get open much and didn't leap up or dive to get it as much. They are young, though, I know.
I'm hoping the new guys turn out to be as good as people think. That would be awesome.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:53 AM ^
Chesson did not have much in the way of spectacular catches at all, and certainly not in 2016. He was more likely to fall the wrong way, lose balance, or get shielded off the ball by defenders. He provided zero help for Speight and could never beat out a defender by high-pointing a ball.
The interception Speight threw late against Iowa was a great example. Yeah, it was a tight window; Chesson was also falling away from the ball as it approached, allowing the defender to move on it uncontested. He could not adjust to the ball at all in the air and was periodically embarrassed in that area.
Just being straight: Chesson did a lot with what he brought to the table as a low-prospect athlete. He was fast, and he had good moments, especially in 2015 (I suspect his injury hurt his lateral agility in 2016, but we've never heard). He was a brilliant blocker, and he knew every play and adjustment. But he wasn't a spectacular catcher. Even the "spectacular" catches prove my point--the dime Speight threw to Chesson for a TD against Rutgers had to fit in a 6-inch window, and passes to Chesson were always like that in 2016, because he could not shake defenders for anything. Speight simply couldn't hit that 6-inch window all that often.
August 12th, 2018 at 2:25 AM ^
It is quite possible I'm thinking of 2015 or more of Darboh than Chesson. But he did get drafted into the NFL.
August 12th, 2018 at 6:13 AM ^
I wondered where all of my points went and now I know. 20053870? Wow!
August 12th, 2018 at 7:54 AM ^
OMG. The receivers were open aplenty last year. Nothing was thrown close enough to them to make any catches-not even spectacular ones!
August 12th, 2018 at 8:35 AM ^
You may mean the 2017 receivers didn't get open much? I saw a lot of deep routes last year open with grossly thrown deep balls. Guys were getting open, QBs just couldn't hit them. Getting separation off the line was more of an issue last year with the youth at WR vs what we had in 2016 but once they got off the line they seemed to be running with a step on their defender. Black would have been a go up and get it kinda guy but his season was cut a lil short. He'd shown awesome flashes early. No reason to think he wouldn't have continued that, unless that reason is QB being able to make the throw.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
I think the WRs gave up a lot halfway through the season knowing that even if they got open there was no one to throw them the ball.
August 12th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^
I thought about including that in my post...it had to be very discouraging. Here they were-the new kids on the block and these veteran QBs couldn't even give them a shot at a reception.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:40 AM ^
Well, it won't be easy, but if we can somehow get to 6-0, we're a lock since I assume by the time we get to the back end of the schedule where we play the B1G East all those schools will be ineligible and/or playing under an interim coach.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:37 AM ^
If there were any year for Rutgers to finish 2ND in the division this is their year!! That showdown with Indiana looms large in their quest for greatness.
August 12th, 2018 at 2:49 AM ^
2018 has me very excited. However, QB is not a slam dunk to be better than 2016. Jake was very very good - bordering on great as the season unfolded. That dude is way underrated. He was a little rough early as he learned the system, but he was money after the first 4-5 games. Shea has better upside potential, but he doesn't protect the ball as well as Jake. Jake made very few mistakes.
If Shea is as good or better than Jake......look out!! Also....LT is a huge concern.
August 12th, 2018 at 4:46 AM ^
Jake was 2015. 2016 was Speights first year.
August 12th, 2018 at 5:07 AM ^
Jake Rudock played in 2015. 2016 was Wilton Speight.
If we had Rudock for one more year I think 2016 Michigan goes to the NC.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
Oops - that's right. I guess that's how much I loved Jake. Just so reliable as the season progressed.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:42 AM ^
Talent upgrades: QB, RB, Interior OL, WR, DT, LB, ST coverage
Talent equals: TE, OT, DE, CB, Kicking
Talent downgrades: S, Punting, Returns
I wouldn’t discount the importance of Returns. Jabrill was a huge factor in field position, especially his ability to field every punt and also ave 11 yds a return. His KO returns were also better than anyone on this squad.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
A rainy Sunday morning tally was interesting. My take.
Starter comparison 2018 vs 2016:
Offense
- QB ... SP > WS
- RB ... KH = DS
- FB ... BM > HP
- WR1 ... TB < AD
- WR2 ... DPJ < JC
- TE ... ZG < JB
- RT ... ?? < EM
- RG ... MO = KK
- C ... CR < MC
- LG ... BB = BB
- LT ... ?? < GN (or BB)
Defense
- SDE ... RG > CW
- DT ... MD < MH
- NT ... AS = RG
- WDE ... CW = TC
- ILB ... DB > BG
- OLB ... ?? = MM
- Viper ... KH = JP
- CB1 ... LH = JL
- CB2 ... DL > CS
- SS ... JM = DT
- FS ... TK < DH
Special Teams
- Kick Return ... AT = JC
- Punt Return ... DPJ < JP
- K ... QN = KA
- P ... BR < KA
Tally: 2018 ... > 5 times / = 11 times / < 10 times
Conclusion - Major differences 2018 vs 2016
- 2018 better ... QB
- 2018 weaker ... OT, WR, Punt Teams
- 2018 upside ... major upgrade with OL and WR coaching plus WRs are a year older with a real playmaker at QB
Hopefully these new coaches unlock all that potential in two key groups ... OL and WR. Also, we need to work hard on Punt Teams to approach 2016 season success ... Allen and Peppers were just outstanding for field position and playmaking ability to flip the field.
This could be a special season ... Go Blue !!!
August 12th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
A few disagreements. If you are right about the OL as 3 wins and 2 pushes in 2016 and knowing their marginal results by year-end, the 2018 team is in deep trouble. I also think a debate about Taco and Chase would be fascinating and your = is probably a fair split of the debate. My changes to your list:
KH > DS - not sure how you rate a guy with 4.2 YPC and 4.9 speed equal 6,1 YPC and 4.5 speed
DPJ > JH - Jehu was coming off knee surgery with no spring/summer contact, very good speed and poor ball skills against a healthy DPJ, fantastic speed and good ball skills; at least =
GP > GP - slot should be better based on experience of Grant (and Oliver adds a high ceiling element)
CR = MC - Cesar has more agility and natural drive ability while Mason was more technically sound
Brede > Braden - new Ben was 2nd team All-B1G as a soph and added 20 lbs this off-season compared
JR > MM - purely based on their talent ceilings but Ross has far more speed and explosiveness and McCray was coming off major injury & a big ? mark in 2016; at least =
Net: I still move the needle back to 2018 just a bit.
August 12th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^
I knocked down KH for poor pass protection. In big games KH's YPC was below DS and his pass pro was a real detriment. With the added strength in 2018 hoping he improves both against the likes of MSU and OSU.
Not convinced DPJ will be a great WR. His route running is way behind JH and his blocking on run plays needs to improve - JH was outstanding in that regard. DPJ has more upside given SPARQ skills but he needs to improve in technical aspects of WR.
Did not rate GP, but I agree he is a plus for 2018.
CR has a lot to prove to be as good as the Cardinal's starting C ... but agree he has the potential to be better than MC.
Braden graded out really well in 2016 and covered LT well. Interesting to see he is now the Jets backup LT. With added strength you may be right Bredesen could have a breakout season.
Have not seen JR play that is why I made it a push with MM, but you may be right.
Yes, 2018 OL to me is the biggest challenge for the team. Both OTs are questionable compared to the 2016 veterans who were only average B1G players.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:13 AM ^
Only positions that are weaker are Safety, TE and LT.
If Brad Hawkins comes in and shores up coverage, then this may not be the case.
Jake Butt will be hard to beat, but not impossible.
JBB or Mayfield would really have to improve a great deal to be considered an average Big Ten OL
August 12th, 2018 at 8:45 AM ^
JBB improved a lot throughout the season last year and became pretty solid. From the work it sounds like he's putting in this off-season I think he'll be a steady player for us. He's already good in run blocking so that will get even better this year which will be huge given our RBs and mobile QB. He's only going to improve in pass protection and while that did need some shoring up I have faith that he's going to benefit greatly from the S&C coach along with Warinner.
August 13th, 2018 at 1:16 AM ^
If you think Dwumfour and Solomon as first year starters are going to be as good as 4th year Hurst and 5th year Ryan Glasgow, your optimism knows almost no bounds. Good for you.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:28 AM ^
I'll do mine based on my pre-season expectations for 2016 with added comments about the results. My pre-season and post-season assessments of 2016 are much different. I'm skipping defense. There I think we're just quibbling about details. Expectations and results are all sky high.
QB 2018 >>>> 2016 (QB was terrifying going in to 2016. Speight was much better than expected. I expect Patterson to comfortably exceed his performance and the backups are less scary and with more potential.)
RB 2018 > 2016 (Deveon's blocking has been been missed. Higdon and Evans were better than expected. Isaac didn't come close to his plaudits, which dragged the whole group below my expectations. 2018 has a very high floor at RB, with the best proven combo in a very long time.)
FB 2018 > 2016 (I thought we'd miss Houma more than we did. I like Mason and BVS, but would honestly be happy if we come close to 2016's production at FB.)
TE 2018 >> 2016 (Although Butt was very good, I thought this group would be better than they were. It was hard not to be excited for the Asiasi/Wheatley combo. My expectations are even higher this time. I can't think of a position group on offense I'd rank this highly since Carr retired.)
WR 2018 = 2016 (I was wrong in 2016. Chesson was ascending and Darboh was very good. A great 1-2 punch with a lot of experience. Turned out Chesson was better with Rudock and the lack of depth was a real problem. I'll be shocked if 2018 doesn't easily exceed 2016. A lot more weapons in the slot. More talent on the outside, and although it's not proven, I'm pretty optimistic.)
OL 2016 >> 2018 (It should have been a solid group. Expectations were high for Cole and Newsome, Magnuson was solid, Braden wasn't bad and maybe the light would go on for Kalis. Obviously Newsome's injury hurt a lot. Depth was an issue and no one showed much improvement. I'm certainly more worried about this group going into the season, but I expect to see better results. I like the coaching change and the depth.)
ST 2016 >> 2018 (Worried about punting more now, FGs less. I'm looking forward to seeing what Ambry can do. I expect an uptick over 2017, but Peppers on returns was special and lived up to lofty expectations.)
August 12th, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^
About the same if the WR group takes a step forward this year. The difference is the harder schedule.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:20 AM ^
2018:
Defense will be better than 2016.
Offense will average about the same # PPG (40+) but with a more consistent rushing attack and few if any outlier low scoring games.
I am undecided on Special Teams. Should be very solid. I'll be curious if they focus more on punt returns of punt blocks.
August 13th, 2018 at 1:36 AM ^
It's funny how quickly everyone has forgotten how good the 2016 defense was. Halfway through the season, the defense had broken the S&P+ rating system (they were giving up a "negative" number of points per game with the opponent adjustment) and finished with a rating that is second best amongst any team in the last four years by a WIDE margin.
Per S&P+, the 2016 defense was significantly better than Clemson's 2014 defense and Alabama's 2015 and 2017 defense, all three of which were the best defenses in those respective seasons.
Even in the two losses that year, the M defense was quite literally impenetrable. OSU scored 17 points in regulation at home and one TD was a pick 6, the other was started on the 5 thanks to another pick.
It was incredibly talented, and incredibly experienced: 7 guys drafted in the first 4 rounds THAT YEAR!. It wasn't even like they had a couple young talented guy that grew into draft picks later on, they were all draft ready. And that could have been 8 guys on one side of the ball get drafted in the first four rounds if Mo Hurst decided to leave.
The 2017 defense was about 11 points per game worse than the 2016 defense adjusting for opponent quality (and you don't have to go further than the compare the PSU and OSU games from 2016 to 2017 to see the big difference). So the same guys minus Mo Hurst would have to improve quite a bit to get back to that level.
The ends, LBs and CBs are very, very good for 2018. Don Brown is still Don Brown. But the safeties aren't NFL players and the DTs are young. Realistically, this is probably not going to be a top 3 defense, let alone an historically good defense like 2016.
And yes, we are spoiled when we're debating whether we'll have a historically good defense or merely a top 5 or top 10 defense.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
2018 still young but highly talented, unproven QB, still in search of consistent playmakers, mystery at OT, and lot's of new coaches on offense - we have Pep Hamilton calling plays.
2016 veterans everywhere, solid OL (in retrospect), more proven playmakers like Peppers, Butt, Darboh and Chesson - we had Jedd Fisch calling plays.
2019 would be more like 2016 if we can keep enough of the veterans instead of them bolting to the NFL. 2016 and 2018 are not really much alike - 2018 is more like 2015 but with more upside at QB. Typically, veterans outperform youngsters and Jedd Fisch called a really good game. I think UM 2016 would beat UM 2018 in a head-to-head matchup early in the season, but the 2018 team has the raw material and QB upside to be better by the end of the season.
20 days 'til they strap it on and we find out ... Go Blue !!!
August 13th, 2018 at 1:45 AM ^
You've nailed it throughout this thread. People forget how good and experienced that 2016 team was, especially the defense.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
Almost across the board this team is more talented.
Dont get me wrong, the 2016 team had its fair share of talent. But the majority of it was in the form of high floor, low ceiling type players. While Darboh was good for a circus catch every now and then, he was generally a good possession receiver. As far as raw talent and upside I’d give the nod to DPJ and Black.
The difference is going to be whether they can put it together on a consistent enough basis where that talent shows
August 12th, 2018 at 3:47 PM ^
High floor / low ceiling: agree. The experience raised the floor considerably, but there is way more raw talent on this year's team. Whether it reaches its potential is to be determined.
August 13th, 2018 at 1:51 AM ^
Other than Speight, D Smith and Mike McCray, who on 2016 would anyone consider to have a "low" ceiling though?
Almost everyone else not only had at least a high-minus ceiling, but they were all at those ceilings! At the same time! That's how you get 11 guys drafted.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
I think the defenses will compare pretty favorably. The 2018 version will have much better LBs, but the other levels of the defense should be pretty similar. The d-line may have been a little deeper in '16 however. The offense is hard to compare. I think the '18 version is much more talented as DPJ, Black, Patterson, Higdon, & Evans are all very good players. But, Patterson is still a bit of a question mark in our offense and DPJ & Black are still young, but they both have the potential to be better than Darboh & Chesson. The o-lines were the weaknesses on both teams. Which is better? I think the interior of the '18 version will be better, but it's hard to say with the tackles. Because the '16 was veteran they started off really good, but faded late. I'd expect the opposite trajectory of this team, but the schedule is difficult so it's hard to say who the losses will come to. I like our chances in every game, but it would hard to see them not lose at least a few games.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
To be honest I believe a lot of emphasis has to be directed at the special teams, especially the punting game. Special teams could prove to be huge in a lot of these tough road games. Kenny Allen was extremely dependable. Hopeing Nordin can improve on last years struggles at times.
With that said. Our Offense will be better than 2016...by mid year. I'm expecting some bumps early on with maybe OL play and WR timing with Patterson. They will still be a large improvement over 2017 unit though.
Defense will be better than 2016 and 17. Defensive speed all the way around is better than 16.
I think the two major things we are all over-looking is the fact we are bigger and stronger due to an improved S&C coach and Nutritionist. We will be in better shape to hold up in the 4th quarter instead of blowing leads like last year.
The most important factor in us being better than 2016 though is simple...Depth. Although unproven in many spots .Its still better in 2018 than 2016. We will have a lot of rotation this year to get guys playing time.
I believe at the end of the year...We will all be surprised 11-1 but beat OSU
August 12th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^
Two great defenses, but 2018 team has more knowledge with system. Personally optimistic about Shea Patterson, DPJ, T. Black, and better offensive line play being positive difference makers.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
The biggest difference people are going to notice from 2016 vs 2018 is Ben Herbert vs. Kevin Tolbert as Strength and Conditioning coach. Hands down. Size, speed and overall fitness. Big difference.
Michigan is a much faster and beefier team in 2018 than 2016.
Michigan is going to run the ball a lot this year behind a 305 lbs per man offensive line.
I don't care if you are Notre Dame, Nebraska or Northwestern.
With Shea Patterson at QB, Evans and Higdon at RB, DPJ and Nico Collins at outside WR and a crew of big TE targets, you're gonna have a bad time.
Smart money is on Michigan this fall, because everyone else has recency bias and prejudice against Harbaugh, etc. Not wise.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
My sentiments exactly....That and better depth are the keys to success this year.....
August 12th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
Yes. So many hand-wringers who live vicariously through a friggin' interscholastic football team. OMG guys-relax, enjoy and, yes, grow up. This team is damn talented. "Alabama" only gets to play 11 players at a time. Michigan has to play smarter but for pete's sake give them a chance.
August 12th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^
I think 2018 is a deeper and more athletic roster than the 2016 squad. The offense is potentially more explosive, and the defense may have even more draft picks than 2016. The 2016 team had a few unknowns. There was a new defensive scheme the team had to learn. There was a new quarterback with a bare minimum of experience. And, much of the depth was a large freshman class.
2018 has no such unknowns. The schemes are the same, and every rotational player (save the quarterback) has been in the system for at least 2 years. The talent is there, and the 2018 roster may very well surpass the 10 wins of the 2016 team. I'm not one for "hot takes", but I would not be surprised to see this team go undefeated in the regular season.
August 12th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
Injuries will be the largest determining factor for this year's squad. Stay healthy, and we're on par and will be playing for championship ticket in Columbus. But, i'll let you know for sure in Jan.
August 12th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
Patterson > Speight (if he gets protection especially)
Higdon > Smith
Mason > Hill
DPJ/Black > Chesson/Darboh though I think that will be because combined they do better and not because one of them is clearly the #1 guy.
Butt > McKeon but combined with Gentry it is closer to a wash.
Newsome/Braden > JBB/Hudson
Bredeson > Braden/Bredeson
Cole > Ruiz
Kalis > Onwenu/Spanellis
Magnuson > Runyan
Gary ~ Taco (he had like 10 sacks in 9 games)
Hurst > Dwumfor
Solomon ~ Glasgow
Winovich > Wormley
Hudson > Peppers (or at least makes more impactful plays)
Bush > Gedeon
Gil/Ross > McCray
Lewis > Hill (by a small amount)
Long > Stringing (by a larger amount)
Hill > Metellus (or whoever)
Thomas > Kinnel
So overall the 2016 OL had a higher floor but otherwise I'd call it a wash or in favor of 2018.
August 13th, 2018 at 6:29 AM ^
After 9 games in 2016, we were 9-0 and outscoring the opposition 48-11. I doubt very much whether this year's team is going to top that over the first 9. If there is a difference between 2016 and 2018, it will be at QB. Everything else is basically a wash. Speight was effective in 2016, but he was not a difference maker in the big games. If Patterson can be, if he can make the big plays in the 4th quarter against tough opponents, we will be better in 2018. If not, we won't be,
August 13th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Coming into the season I am not sure I was ever more optimistic about a UM team than I was coming into '16. I had them going 11-1 (loss to OSU - we won't beat them again in my lifetime) and was confident about that.
I'm confident about the D for '18. The O....not so much.