In the aftermath of Saturday's loss, a ton of discussion has understandably centered around Don Brown and our defense.


Some common critiques I've seen of Don Brown:

- Giving up 62 or 56 points is a lot worse than what previous DCs did against OSU.

- ANY good DC should be able to limit OSU to maybe 35 or 40 points or so and then we'd have a chance. It shouldn't be hard to find someone who can at least do that.

- Don Brown is too aggressive... a more conservative bend but don't break approach might keep OSU in check a lot more.

Anyway, a lot of talk made me think of Michigan's 3 games against OSU before Don Brown got here, especially the 2015 game.

Were 2018 and 2019 worse defensive performances than 2015, 2014, and 2013?

People are understandably frustrated because never before have we given up point totals like 62 or 56 points to anyone. I think people look at that 2015 game when we gave up 42 and think, "I would take that." Give up 42 and you've got a shot. 56? 62? That's a tough ask. I understand that perspective. I think a lot of people would say that in 2015, Durkin at least gave us a chance, but in 2018 and '19 our offense was left with the almost impossible task of needing to score 55 or 62.

Here's the thing, though. The 2015 game was played at a slower pace than yesterday's game or last year's game. It took Ohio State only 7 possessions to reach 42 points in 2015. At that point, the score was 42-13 and there were 2 minutes left in the game. Michigan would've had to score 42 points in 7 possessions to keep pace.

Our defense on Saturday didn't fair a lot better than that 2015 group did, but after 9 possessions, OSU had 42 points. For Michigan to score 42 points in 9 possessions still would've been tough, but there's still no question that our offense has a better chance at winning if it has to score 42 points in 9 possessions than if it has to do the same in 7 possessions. I think it's a narrative on this board that our D gave us no chance at winning on Saturday, whereas previous defenses had better games against OSU that gave us a more realistic chance at winning. However, this year's D still left the offense with a more manageable task than the 2015 group did.

And let's be honest, one OSU drive got prolonged by an offsides on a punt which has nothing to do with Don Brown. Take that out and OSU would've had 35 points in its first 9 possessions. Okay, I'm leaving out the garbage time possessions that took OSU from 42 to 56, but the TD that took OSU from 42 to 49 was after we went for it on 4th down at our own 28 and got stopped. Their next TD drive came on a short field as well.

Last year, Don Brown's defense got blown up by Ohio State as well. But we allowed 27 points in Ohio States first 8 drives. That's less than 3.5 points per drive and it definitely gives you a chance to be right in the game. What happened next? OSU blocked a punt for a TD. Then, on our next drive, we threw a pick, Ohio State started at our 22 and punched it in, and the game was done. Even so, even if you count the short field TD as a defensive letdown, it took Ohio State 10 offensive possessions to score their first 41 offensive points.

I am not at all trying to argue that Don Brown has had good games the last two years against OSU. But, it is false, IMO, that the defense the last two years gave our team a worse chance at winning than our defense in... say... 2015.

Recent defensive performances against Ohio State (pre-garbage time):
2019 - Don Brown - OSU 42 points in 9 possessions (would've been 35 without the offsides on a punt)
2018 - Don Brown - OSU 41 points in 10 possessions (27 in first 8, 9th drive was a 22-yard TD after an INT)
2017 - Don Brown - OSU 31 points in 12 possessions
2016 - Don Brown - OSU 10 points in 12 possessions (the TD came on a 13 yard drive)
2015 - DJ Durkin - OSU 42 points in 7 possessions
2014 - Greg Mattison - OSU 35 points in 9 possessions
2013 - Greg Mattison - OSU 42 points in 11 possessions (including one lost fumble by OSU)

What are the only drives I left out? In 2015, OSU punted once with 2 minutes left and the score 42-13. And in 2018 and 2019, OSU got 2 late TDs each year after things were out of hand. Of those 4 late TDs, 3 of the 4 drives started in Michigan territory and 2 of the 4 started at our 28 and 13 and with the team already emotionally defeated.  I also didn't include OT from 2016 because that's hard to compare to drives in regulation for a myriad of reasons.

Basically, while OSU has generated more total points the last two years than in previous Michigan - OSU games, it's hard to argue that Brown's defense has left Michigan with a worse chance to win than in previous match-ups.

It is actually pretty clear that Michigan's D gave the team a better chance at winning in 2018 and 2019 than in 2015. The 2014 and 2013 defensive performances were pretty similar to the last two years, but there were less total drives for each team in those games, and we didn't have short field TDs and blocked punts inflating OSU's final score.

Were our last two defensive performances significantly worse than what Mattison and Durkin managed? They really weren't. And that's not even accounting for the fact that OSU has probably been better on offense that last two years than some of those other teams were.

Can Michigan find a DC who would do a better job against Ohio State?

As already explained above, I really don't think that Durkin or Mattison gave us a better chance at beating OSU the years they allowed 42 than Don Brown has the last two years. And people on this board act like Don Brown shouldn't get any credit for our good defensive performances in 2016 and 2017.

Aside from all that, people act like it would be easy to find a replacement who could improve upon Don Brown's recent performances. Do people remember how acclaimed Mattison and Durkin were when we hired them? Both guys were considered huge hires. Greg Mattison left the Ravens to come here. DJ Durkin was a top college DC who had been successful at Florida, and people were very excited to have him. If we were to replace Don Brown, we might be able to bring in someone with similar credentials to what Mattison and Durkin had when we hired them, but finding anyone with significantly better credentials would be a real stretch. The best you can hope for is to bring in someone with the credentials of someone like Durkin, Mattison, or Don Brown, and Don Brown is the only one of the 3 that's managed to have a credible performance against OSU since they got up and running under Meyer. Brown has gone 2/4 against OSU. You could say that Mattison went 2/4 during his time here, but the first passing grade was giving up 34 to a 6-6 Luke Fickell team with OSU's QB missing multiple wide open TDs. The next one was Meyer's first year. Durkin went 0/1 and it was the worst defensive performance by any defense we've had against OSU from 2011-present.

I just really can't think of anyone out there whose credentials are better than Mattison's were in 2011, Durkin's were in 2015, and Brown's were in 2016. So why do people think it will be easy to find someone who will be better than Don Brown?

Should Michigan take a more conservative approach on D?

First off, I'm not an expert at football strategy. I will say this, though: Every DC we ever had here before Don Brown got criticized for not being aggressive enough. Just the idea of using a "bend but don't break" defense infuriated a lot of fans. 

I will say this, DJ Durkin's approach in 2015 sounds a lot like what people hoping for a less-agressive approach promoting. Yes, Durkin did like physical cornerback play, but he loved to keep his safeties deep and not let teams create big plays. His philosophy was to let the d-line and linebackers worry about the running game without moving the safeties up into the box, and if you could run the ball, you'd have a chance at moving the ball down the field gradually. But he did not want to allow big plays.

Well, just like we saw this year, when your defensive line is better than the opposing offensive line, there are a lot of defensive strategies that will work extremely well. Michigan shut out 3 teams in a row in the middle part of the year. Glasgow got hurt and we started to show some chinks in the armor - namely against Indiana. When we finally played OSU, our defensive line was over-matched and it turns out that a bend-but-don't-break defense doesn't work all that well when your opponent is dominating the line of scrimmage. And let's be real, even without Glasgow, I'd take Hurst, Willie Henry, and Chris Wormley in the middle over a rotation of Kemp, Dwumfour, and Hinton (as a true frosh) any day of the week. At the end of the day, that defense gave up 6 TDs in 7 drives and we had no chance at winning.


There are other points in favor of Don Brown that I've mentioned in other threads. Alabama has the most talented roster in the country and gave up 48 and 46 points in their two biggest games this year. And that's with Saban - who is supposed to be a great defensive coach. I think there's a lot of truth to the defense - espoused by many on this board, including myself - that if you are really over-matched at the line of scrimmage there's not a lot that the DC can do. That sure turned out to be the case in 2015. But my post wasn't about those points.

The two main points of my post are the following:

1. Ohio State scored more total points the last two years because there were more total possessions in each game, but our defense did not give us a worse chance at winning than in previous Michigan-OSU games of this decade.

2. People act like any good DC will do better than Don Brown, but his 2 predecessors came in with great credentials and they could not do a better job against OSU than he has done. I'd argue that both guys actually did a worse job against Ohio State.

I obviously hope we keep Don Brown.

This was too long to proofread so I apologize for any typos. 

Go Blue!