I really don't know much about TCU apart from watching their conference championship game, so I took some time this weekend to collect data on Michigan's and TCU's offensive and defensive performances against every team on their schedule.* Although it's difficult to make direct comparisons, I'm always interested to see how individual teams have handled the opponents on their schedules. This post looks at offensive statistical performance against each opponent. I'll make a similar post for the defensive side of the ball in a few days if you all are interested.

The individual game statistics I looked at were:

• total points
• total yards
• yards per play
• passing yards
• yards per pass attempt
• rushing yards
• yards per rush

For each of these statistics, I provide data on:

• the minimum and maximum allowed by each opponent's defense over the entire season (range)
• the average allowed by the opponent's defense over the entire season (circle)
• Michigan's/TCU's performance in that game (diamond)

This allows us to see how Michigan and TCU performed against their opponents relative to everyone else on their opponents' schedules. For example, we can see how well Michigan's offense performed against Ohio State compared to everyone else OSU played (hint: our guys did very well!).

For a number of reasons (lack of common opponents, different styles of play in conferences, etc.) we shouldn't use these data to directly compare TCU and Michigan. However, I do note the SP+ defensive rankings of all opponents, which I use to see how the UM and TCU offenses perform relative to similarly ranked defenses on their schedules.

The data for all statistics are from sports-reference.com. I do not have an ESPN+ account, so I use the SP+ statistics provided by cfbdata.com. I'm pretty sure these are the updated SP+ statistics from the end of week 14, but please let me know if any of these SP+ rankings are incorrect.

*TCU played FCS Tarleton State in week 2. My data source did not include statistics for FCS teams, and I didn't really feel like hunting down this data from another source.

Main points for anyone that isn't interested in going into all the details

• Michigan really crushed Ohio State's defense in all offensive categories (obligatory mention).
• TCU has a well-balanced offense. They don't really put up video game numbers in either facet of the offense, but they consistently put up solid/very good rushing and passing numbers. They are not a one-dimensional Big 12 passing team. 
• Michigan's running game is elite, but the passing offense is also solidly efficient on a per-attempt basis even though they don't put up eye-popping numbers in the passing game.
• I'd be interested to know what Texas did to shut down the TCU offense. They held TCU to season lows in almost all categories I looked at. (I didn't watch the game, so there may have been some weather-related or similar weird issues at play).
• Based on these data, I wouldn't say that either Michigan or TCU has an offensive advantage over the other. They have both been very good offensively throughout the season. If pressed, I might give the slight advantage to UM given the overall stronger defenses on their schedule (average SP+ opponent defense rank of 52 for Michigan compared to 65 for TCU), and also because I'm a homer.

Here are the data, with some brief notes of things I found interesting.

Points per game
Both teams have put up similar numbers of points throughout the season. Michigan averages 40.1 points per game, while TCU averages 38.8. 

Michigan scored the maximum number of points allowed by their opponents in four games: CSU, UConn, Ohio State(!), and Purdue. TCU did this in two games: Oklahoma and Iowa State.

Against the top-25 SP+ defenses on their schedules:

• Michigan averaged 33 points in their four games against Iowa (27), Penn State (41), Illinois (19), and Ohio State (45). 
• TCU averaged 36 points in their four games against K-State (38), Texas (17), Iowa St. (62) and K-State (28). 

Key takeaway #1: Michigan's 45 points against Ohio State is the most the Buckeyes have given up all year.

Total Offense and Yards Per Play
Michigan and TCU had almost identical numbers in terms of total offense and yards per play. Michigan averaged 453 yards/game at 6.7 yards/play. TCU averaged 451 yards/game at 6.6 yards/play.

Total Yards

Michigan gained the maximum number of yards allowed by their opponents in two games, Penn State and Ohio State, and nearly did so against Illinois. TCU did this in two games, against Oklahoma and Iowa State. 

Against the SP+ top-25 defenses on their schedules:

• Michigan averaged 449 yards per game against Iowa (327), Penn State (563), Illinois (376) and Ohio State (530!).
• TCU averaged 380 yards per game against K-State (390), Texas (283), Iowa State (377) and K-State (469).

Key takeaway #2: Michigan's 520 yards of offense is the most that Ohio State has given up all year.

Yards Per Play
A similar pattern is found if we look at Yards Per Play, though Michigan appears to be slightly more efficient. They were at or above their opponent's average of YPP given up in every game, whereas TCU fell below their opponent's average YPP given up in two games: K-State I and Texas.

Key takeaway #3: Michigan's 8.8 yards per play was the most OSU has given up all year. (I think we are starting to observe a trend here.)

Offensive breakdown
The remaining graphs break the offensive production down into passing and rushing. As you might have guessed, Michigan is a more run-centric offense, running the ball on 63% of their offensive plays whereas TCU is more evenly split, running the ball on 55% of their offensive plays.

Passing Offense
TCU enjoys a slight advantage over Michigan in terms of the passing offense. They average 258 passing yards per game compared to 210 for Michigan.

Total Passing Yards

One thing that immediately stands out is that, in terms of total yards, Michigan's passing offense puts up fewer yards than their opponents give up, on average, per game. The reverse is true for TCU (i.e., they typically put up more yards than their opponent's defense allows on average).

Against top-25 SP+ defenses:

• Michigan averaged 197 passing yards against Iowa (155), Penn State (145), Illinois (208) and Ohio State (278!)
• TCU averaged 254 passing yards against K-State (280), Texas (239), Iowa State (246) and K-State (251).

Yards Per Passing Attempt
If we look at Yards Per Attempt, on the other hand, then we see that Michigan is quite (and quietly) efficient in its passing offense. They are only slightly behind TCU in YPA, with Michigan averaging 8.3 yards/attempt and TCU averaging 8.4. 

Key takeaway #4: Michigan's 11.1 yards per passing attempt is the most that Ohio State has given up all year! (It certainly feels like a trend)

Rushing Offense
As you might expect, Michigan holds an advantage in total rushing offense, averaging 243 yards per game compared to 201 rushing yards per game for TCU.

Total Rush Yards

Michigan rushed for the maximum number of yards against 5 opponents (Penn State, MSU, Rutgers, Ohio State(!) and Purdue). TCU did the same against one of their opponents (Oklahoma).

Against top-25 SP+ defenses:

• Michigan averaged 253 yards against Iowa (172), Penn State (418), Illinois (168) and Ohio State 252).
• TCU averaged 181 yards against K-State (215), Texas (159), Iowa State (131) and K-State (218). 

Key takeaway #5: Michigan's 252 rushing yards is the most that Ohio State has allowed all season. (Trend?) 

Yards Per Rush
The numbers even out if we look at yards per rush, with Michigan averaging 5.7 yards per rushing attempt and TCU averaging 5.4.

It is interesting to note here that Michigan's yards/rush exceeded the average given up by all top-25 SP+ defenses they played this year. Moreover, two of Michigan's three highest yards/rush averages are against SP+ top-15 defenses (Penn State and Ohio State). TCU was typically at, or even slightly below, the opponent's allowed average in three of the four games against SP+ top-25 defenses. 

Key takeaway #6: Michigan's 7.2 yards per rush against Ohio State was the most they have allowed all year. (TREND!)

Other notes
I'm curious about what happened in the TCU-Texas game and if there is anything we could possibly glean from Texas's defensive strategy. Texas was able to hold TCU to season lows in all categories except yards per rush. But, as the defensive statistics will show, TCU also held Texas's offense to near season lows as well. 🤷‍♂️

You might be wondering whether I went through this whole exercise to show just how much Michigan statistically dominated Ohio State's defense. You would be correct.

Anyone find anything else of interest? 

Go Blue!