A Tale of Two Blue Calebs
Caleb Love, UNC, PG, rated #14 in 247 in 2020 class:
- One of the only top 15 HS players to return to college for sophomore year (or play in college, at all). In shooting % stats and in PPG, his sophomore year showed tremendous growth.
- Improved FG% (31.6 to 37.2), 3pt% (26.6 to 37.8), FT% (80.8 to 87) and PPG (10.5 to 15.7) from freshman to sophomore year.
Caleb Houstan: Freshmen year, rated #11 in 247 in 2021 class:
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Higher FG% (38.4 to 31.6) and 3pt% (35.5 to 26.6) than Love in freshman year, and lower TO rate (3.1 to 1.5; Love is lead guard, though, so that's expected).
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The most concerning aspect of Caleb’s game is his overall shooting percentage and hesitance. You’d like to see him raise both his overall FG% and 3% into the low 40s and high 30s, respectively. If we see that, his PPG will likely raise to at least 12.5. If he returns, and depending on who else returns, I can see him averaging 13-15 ppg.
For further reference, let’s look at one other recent blue chip from outside the program who left early and one from inside who stayed the extra year:
Brandon Boston, UK, SG, rated #5 in 247 in 2020 class:
- Out of HS, he was Top 5, declared early, but was drafted in late Round 2 (51 pick). He has played in 50 games for Clippers, averaging 14.4 minutes and 6.5 ppg. His college shooting %s are similar to his one year at Kentucky.
- Brandon's FG% was 35.5 and his 3pt% was 30. Yet, with those numbers, he was a R2 pick and has already made his way into a sans-Kawhi Clippers lineup.
Franz Wagner
- Franz's overall FG% was lottery-pick worthy as a freshman (45.2) and even more elite (47.7) in year 2. Franz is taller, longer, and was one of the best pure shooters UM has had since Bullock. Caleb's 38.4% is concerning for someone tabbed as a shooter, but his similar 3pt% being 35.5 may cancel that out.
- In comparison to Franz, Caleb should definitely stay at Michigan. Caleb is no longer seen as a lottery pick. However, if he shows the kind of growth in one year that Love has shown (absurd jump in shooting %s and PPG) then I can see Caleb being a late 1st round pick again.
A lot of fans around here quickly give up on players (many did it with Franz, all the way up until the final buzzer of March 2021). If we look at players in similar ranking, with similar skill sets, we can see there’s a good chance Caleb Houstan will improve, especially when one considers his blue chip status, freshman performance and development, and Juwan Howard’s staff player development trends.
March 26th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
Franz's overall FG% was lottery-pick worthy as a freshman (45.2) and even more elite (47.7) in year 2. Franz is taller, longer, and was one of the best pure shooters UM has had since Bullock
Hold on, you have to look at the types of shots players take before you look at overall field goal percentage. Moussa Diabate shot 54.2% from the floor this year but no one's calling him an elite shooter.
Franz was not at all a lottery candidate as a freshman. He had a versatile offensive game but struggled a lot as a perimeter shooter (31.1% from 3), and was merely a good defender then, not the stud he would become.
As a sophomore he became somewhat better from the perimeter but was not elite (34.3%). However, he stepped up his game everywhere else and became a phenomenal defender and raised his stock into the lottery.
One of the best pure shooters since Bullock? I think you are mixing him up with someone else . . . Stauskas? Livers? Duncan Robinson?
March 28th, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
What you wrote in your last sentence ... when I think "pure shooter" at Michigan, Franz (who was decent) is not who comes to mind.
Yeah, appreciate the effort by the OP but bizarre reliance on FG% without consideration for what the shot mix was (or assisted v unassisted) and overuse of counting stats.
Patience
Clearly needs AT LEAST one more year in college. Does not hit near enough from behind the line to make up for the lack of ability to create his own shot. And frankly is never going to have the athletic ability to be a major factor in the NBA. Looking forward to a career making money in leagues we have never heard of.
I don't know how anybody can rightly be disappointed with Caleb Houstan's freshman year.
He looked like a really good if not stud, freshman, BIG forward.
Yeah, you can see that the world around him got to moving pretty fast for him at times, but this is the BIG, when it comes to basketball it's usually the toughest conference in the country, and in those years where it might not be, it's still in the conversation. The big guys are mostly fast, the fast guys are mostly big, and nights off are few and far between. What little space there is to be found in this league, closes really fast.
Cliche's aside, the kid played well and will likely play better next year, particularly after another year at camp Sanderson.
Had he played much better, he'd probably be out sniffing the NBA. Which would be a bad thing for everybody ... particularly Caleb Houstan ... in my opinion.
His freshman season is just about a perfect outcome, as far as I'm concerned.
Not sure what point you're trying to make here. Even though Houstan didn't fully live up to expectations, that was probably more due to unfair expectations. He still had a pretty damn good season for a freshman, way better than Caleb Love's freshman year.
Besides, despite Love's improvement, he's still getting mocked as a late first-rounder/high second-rounder.
I think what people don't understand about draft stock is that it's not enough to go back to school and improve. NBA scouts expect players to improve as they get older. To improve your draft stock, you need not only improve but improve MORE than NBA scouts expected you to improve. That's a very high bar that many players who return don't reach.
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