Purdue vs the Top 2
As has come up (and is applicable this week), Purdue has 9 wins vs Top 2 teams as an unranked team -- most all time, with the next highest being 5. Cool stat.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35157290/look-michigan-purdue-unrivaled-history-upsets
I was really interested in the details of these games vs Top-2 teams. Here is what I found.
These are all of Purdue's wins vs Top 2 teams. The * denotes a #1 ranked opponent. Parentheses for Purdue's ranking at the time of the game, if ranked:
2021 - @Iowa 24-7. Iowa finished 10-4, #23
2018 - OSU 49-20. OSU finished 13-1, #3
1984 - OSU 28-23. OSU finished 9-3, #13
1976* - Michigan 16-14. UM finished 10-2, #3
1974 - @ND 31-20. ND finished 10-2, #6
1968 - (#1) @ND 37-22. ND finished 7-2-1, #5
1967* - (#10) ND 28-21. ND finished 8-2, #5
1965* - (#6) ND 25-21. ND finished 7-2-1, #9
1960* - @Minn 23-14. Minn finished 8-2, #1
1957* - @MSU 20-13. MSU finished 8-1, #3
1954* - (#19) @ND 27-14. ND finished 9-1, #4
1953 - MSU 6-0. MSU finished 9-1, #3
1950 - @ND 28-14. ND finished 4-4-1, unranked
For balance/perspective, here are Purdue's losses vs top 2 teams (again, *#1):
2015 - @MSU 24-21. MSU finished 12-2, #6
1999 - (#16) Penn St 31-25. PSU finished 10-3, #11
1996 - OSU 42-14. OSU finished 11-1, #2
1991 - @Michigan 42-0. UM finished 10-2, #6
1990* - @ND 37-11. ND finished 9-3, #6
1989* - ND 40-7. ND finished 12-1, #2
1975* - OSU 35-6. OSU finished 11-1, #4
1971 - ND 8-7. ND finished 8-2, #13
1969* - (#10) @OSU 42-14. OSU finished 8-1 (LOL), #4
1966 - (#9) @MSU 41-20. MSU finished 9-0-1, #2
1965 - (#6) MSU 14-10. MSU finished 10-1, #2
1963 - @Illinois 41-21. ILL finished 8-1-1, #3
1960* - (#10) @Iowa 21-14. Iowa finished 8-1, #3
1954 - (#5) @Wisconsin 20-6. WISC finished 7-2, #9
1954 - OSU 28-6. OSU finished 10-0, #1
1953* - ND 37-7. ND finished 9-0-1, #2
1952* - (#8) vs MSU 14-7. MSU finished 9-0, #1
1949 - ND 35-12. ND finished 10-0, #1
1947* - ND 22-7. ND finished 9-0, #1
1942* - @OSU 26-0. OSU finished 9-1, #1
1940* - @ Minn 33-6. Minn finished 8-0, #1
1936* - (#5)@Minn 33-0. Minn finished 7-1, #1
I counted 13 wins total vs top-2 teams, with 22 losses. Still an excellent record, in particular for a non-blueblood program. (Though Purdue was quite good in their own right in the '60s.). They are 6-6 vs top 2 Notre Dame -- 4-0 vs top 2 ND when Purdue was also ranked -- 2-5 vs OSU, 2-4 vs MSU, 1-1 vs UM, 1-2 vs Minnesota.
Also, not many of the opponents ended up that far off their final ranking, with just five of them finishing outside the top 10, and just two (1950 ND and 2021 Iowa) finishing outside the top 15. Though of course it's very arguable that a lot of ND teams in particular had slightly inflated rankings, especially back in the very old poll era when they were pretty much the only team on TV.
All said, all but nine of these games were 45+ years ago and don't bear much relation to the 2022 Purdue or 2022 Michigan teams, in my opinion. Brohm's two wins over top 2 teams were awesome to watch, but 2018 OSU was a mess on defense for most of the season, and 2021 Iowa a mess on offense, and given the timing of those games, Purdue was able to sneak up a bit more.
I'll leave you with the highlights of that incredible 2018 win. The 4th quarter defensive meltdown -- and total inability/desire to tackle anyone looked awfully familiar...
December 2nd, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
That's what jumps out of this list. Most of the wins were before most of their current football team was born. They are 2-0 in the past 4 years though!
OTOH, how did Michigan not annihilate that OSU defense in 2018?
December 2nd, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
Yeah... I try not to think about that game too much. Michigan did score about 20 in each half but it was always playing catchup, and our offense wasn't built to play from behind. Our game plan seemed less adaptable too -- on series where our run was stuffed, we stubbornly kept at it instead of exploiting their scheme and bad tackling in the back 7.
December 2nd, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
Imagine if Don Brown only a single appendix page at the end of his playbook that had some zone coverages in it.
And can we please put an asterisk by 2021 Iowa at #2. Everyone knew that was a joke. It was like all the times we allowed my old crazy uncle with dementia to pretend like is was 1982 and just went along with it out of pity and historic respect.
December 2nd, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
Imagine if don brown used 101 fundamentals in his defense.
1) Levels to coverage, even man. 2 and 3 db's at the los gets killed, hence why nfl and any decent DC has a second or 3rd corner both off the ball and not on the same level on the same side of the field, ever.
2) Shade, man coverage is one thing but the defender should know the tendency of down, distance, play/formation, so if it's likely to be a slant, you line up shaded inside for a more difficult release and force the rec to fight to get off the los.
3) Alignment on stack rec's, you never put two corners close together or one right behind the other less than 2yds when rec's are stacked. And frequently most NFL and college defenses in man coverage will put a man right on the first rec to immediately jam the release or push the rec back in the event of a wr screen. The second corner, 5-7yds off the ball should be communicating to the front rec for a cross pic, screen.. what ever is coming.
4) Leverage better athlete on lesser athlete mismatches. Don Brown was caught many times trying to cover a speed rec with a safety. NFL eats this alive and any decent college coordinator see's this will keep protection in ie rb and or te to give the play an additional second or two allowing the rec to get by the safety. Don Brown's defense was getting burned by this over and over starting with Colorado in 2016. Not hard to see why osu really began targeting speed receivers with that class and shifted to a much stronger passing offense seeing that 2016 dline. It wasn't just safeties caught, it was lbers caught to, either on fast rb's or on certain disguised blitz's or intended disguise bringing pressure from a safety, nickel or what ever the hybrid was peppers and the other.. but lbers dropping into zones.
Misnomer was don brown never used zones, he used the man in zone concepts frequently, or what was called Banjo but has many names. He also would pull lbers from man coverage and zone under or man the lbers and put safeties deep in zone. Thing is, when he was in full on blitz and no safeties back, he got killed by really good offenses. When the dline couldn't stop the run, he got more aggressive to stop the run. IE what knowles did for osu saturday.. send everyone...what about the back end? Knowles/Brown desperate to stop the run, who cares.. 7pts later..
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:12 AM ^
Man coverage has man, zone coverage has levels?
December 2nd, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
They scored 39 with multiple turnovers and Shea at QB. Freshman Joe Milton led a TD drive if that tells you anything
December 2nd, 2022 at 4:09 PM ^
Yup. That was there. But the other team had scored a lot more than that by then. Sigh.
Honestly, I was traumatized by those two '18 and '19 games more than the game_that_shall_not_be_named or the 2008 season.
December 2nd, 2022 at 5:23 PM ^
"Honestly, I was traumatized by those two '18 and '19 games more than the game_that_shall_not_be_named or the 2008 season."
Exactly. Way better to have had an awful day than the news that you've got an program that remains light-years away from beating your rival.
December 2nd, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Purdue under Jeff Brohm is the most important stat. They went 2 for 2 last season and didn't have a game against a Top 2 team this year until tomorrow.
We can't take them lightly but this is a championship game and on a neutral field. Michigan will be focused and will need to execute as they have all season.
December 2nd, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
Agreed, they are dangerous if you aren't completely focused
Just hard to compare this Michigan team, in that regard, to 2018 OSU and 2021 MSU teams that had been getting by with flawed wins before going to West Lafayette, or (similarly) 2021 Iowa that had a very inflated ranking due to beating (way over)ranked Indiana, (over)ranked Iowa St, and (over)ranked and shorthanded Penn St to climb that high.
December 2nd, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
The Wolverines were ranked 5th in 1964 when they were upset by Purdue. They went on to win the Big Ten and Rose Bowl, and ended up ranked 4th nationally, but this loss probably cost them the national championship.
Takeaway?
Keep focus on this game. Plenty of time later to think about the national playoffs.
Go Blue!
December 2nd, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
I'd be worried if this game was before Ohio State.
As it stands, we'll be deploying an almost full playbook (with plenty of time to come up with new wrinkles for the playoffs) and may be playing for seeding depending on what Georgia and TCU do.
IF Donovan Edwards and JJ stay healthy, we should pretty easily take care of business.
December 2nd, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^
I wonder how it changes if you do top 3; they upset #3 Michigan St last year. But yeah, Spoilermakers (along with Iowa) have perfected the art of a trap game. If this game came before PSU, MSU, or OSU during the regular season, I’d be worried. The B1G title game is not a trap game.
December 2nd, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
I checked and that was their first win vs a #3 in over 50 years.
All time vs #3 teams. Purdue unranked at the time unless noted:
Wins
2021 - MSU 40-29. MSU finished 11-2, #9
1970 - @Stanford 26-14. Stanford finished 9-3, #8
1960 - OSU 24-21. OSU finished 7-2, #8
Losses
2002 - OSU 10-6. OSU finished 14-0, #1
1993 - OSU 45-24. OSU finished 10-1-1, #11
1992 - Michigan 24-17. UM finished 9-0-3, #5
1990 - Michigan 38-13. UM finished 9-3, #7
1986 - Michigan 31-7. UM finished 11-2, #8
1975 - @USC 19-6. USC finished 8-4, #17
1974 - @Michigan 51-0. UM finished 10-1, #3
1972 - @Michigan 9-6. UM finished 10-1, #6
1971 - Michigan 20-17. UM finished 11-1, #6
1957 - @Minnesota 21-17. Minn finished 4-5, unranked
1946 - @ND 49-6. ND finished 8-0-1, #1
1944 - (#14 Purdue) @Navy 32-0. Navy finished 6-3, #4
1941 - @Fordham 17-0. Fordham finished 8-1, #6
1936 - @Fordham 15-0. Fordham finished 5-1-2, #15
They are 13-22 vs the top two but just 3-14 vs #3.
If you are wondering about #4 teams, I didn't track those but I noticed a lot of Purdue losses and few wins.
December 2nd, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
I can't wait for the commentators to make a whole big deal about this before and during the game. It's going to be REALLY fun to listen to...
December 2nd, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
someone should have told ohio.... you can't win big games by kicking fieldgoals. bwahahahaha
December 2nd, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
I think there’s a big difference between beating someone ranked higher on the course of a season, and beating them in a championship game when you have their entire focus. I know a team shouldn’t overlook anyone but Purdue has been fortunate to catch teams off guard. I don’t see that happening tomorrow. I think the whole “giant-killer” thing is a bit misleading.
December 2nd, 2022 at 1:07 PM ^
Crazy that over a 19 year span (1999-2018) they only played 1 game against a top 2 team.
December 2nd, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
Yes, and only one other game (2002 OSU) vs a #3 team
December 2nd, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
Super small sample size in recent history. But they had that one win against a legit OSU where they smoked them at home. Then they had a couple more wins agains teams that were not really the number 2 team, but merely good teams that happened to be ranked number 2 at the time. I dont' think that has much predictability on the B1G championship game.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:13 AM ^
Purdue has an advantage over OSU defensively as it knows Corum won't be playing, and Edwards will in all likelihood still be playing with one hand in a cast. That means you can be sure that all week the Boilermaker defense has been drilling: a) stripping/punching out the ball; b) when Edwards is in, he is unlikely to be a receiver to worry about.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:06 AM ^
Update for the loss column:
2022 - Michigan 43-22. UM finished 15-0, #1
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