Moody (2022) v. Turner (2023)
MGoPodcast 15.14 included multiples discussions of James Turner and how he compares to Jake Moody; I decided to try to quantify the difference between Moody's 2022 season and Turner's 2023 season. I began by looking for advanced statistics; I discovered that Bill Radjewski had created a Points Added Above Replacement statistic, which you can read about here. Using the numbers that Radjewski provides, I was able to reverse engineer a trendline and the equation that he used:
y = -0.001x^2 + 0.026x + 2.7081 (where x = FG distance)
All that was left to do was to plug the results of Moody's 2022 season and Turner's 2023 season to date, and to compare the points that they added above this baseline expectation.
Moody in 2022 was 29/35; he scored 87 points, which is 12.6545 points more than we'd expect of the average FBS kicker (74.3455); that means that he had an added value of 0.36 points per kick. Additionally, one of his kicks was blocked (a 26-yard attempt against Indiana); since this was not Moody's fault, if we remove that kick from the statistics, Moody's numbers improve to 29/34, 87 points, 15.3626 points above replacement, 0.44 points per kick.
Turner so far in 2023 is 16/18; he scored 48 points, which is 9.4462 points above replacement, or 0.52 points per kick.
Conclusion: Moody had more attempts, and thus had a greated added value (relative to an average FBS kicker), but Turner has been better on a per-kick basis.
December 7th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
Note: Radjewski has 15.6 PAAR for Moody last year on 34 attempts (compared to my 15.4 PAAR); I don't know what accounts for the discrepancy (different measurements of the distances?), but it's close enough that I didn't worry about it too much.
December 7th, 2023 at 9:17 PM ^
Hey! It is me, Bill Radjewski. Good job approximating all of that! As for the (rather small) discrepancy, it looks like we have some very small variation in our coefficients. Here are the final (unrounded) values that I ended up with:
a = -0.0010426837701789093
b = -0.008851684313982533
c = 2.8456442866415186
Which this reminds me, I really just need to put all the data up on my site. Anyway, nice work!
December 8th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
That retching sound you just heard is my high school chemistry teacher vomiting in her grave regarding the significant figures violation in this entire conversation. Given that the length of the kicks is in two digits, most of that decimal layout is meaningless. SO, the difference in conclusions becomes non-existant. Math can be a bitch in that regard.
December 9th, 2023 at 9:41 PM ^
100% Correct. The negging here is clearly coming from english and history majors.
December 15th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
We have a great diary post where the analytical source also responds to answer a question about an immaterial discrepancy. That is fantastic. And then we get someone making an immaterial criticism about the immaterial discrepancy. Must be someone from the MgoBlog grammar club trying to cross over into new territory
December 13th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
This is not a mundane detail, Michael!
December 7th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
I'm a fan of both!
December 7th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
Can you do Moody 2021? and Turner 2022?
They both seem great. With Moody his Groza trophy year was 2021 and 2022 was his Groza finalist year I recall. I believe Turner had a good year last year also.
December 11th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
In the Groza Trophy year of 2021, Moody was an outstanding 23 of 25 with a long of 52 and perfect on 56 PAT.
Meanwhile, in 2022, Turner was 20 of 22 at Louisville and a long of 48 and 38/39 PAT. His accuracy has been fantastic and arguably right there with Jake.
I didn't go into the EPA results, but these are obviously all strong years. We are fortunate that our special teams coach and his players have been consistent winners.
December 7th, 2023 at 3:40 PM ^
Why is a block not the kicker's responsibility? Typically, it is "too low" or the kicker takes too much time to kick that leads to the blocks, isn't it?
Curious.
December 7th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
A blocked kick can in theory be a kicker's responsibility, but Brian's game column linked to Zoltan Mesko explaining how this particular kick was blocked, and it seemed to be a blocking issue rather than a kicking issue.
December 7th, 2023 at 4:06 PM ^
This is very interesting. Thanks for making this comparison between the two kickers. I recognize this may be unduly subjective, but is there a way to account for (i.e. calculate) the importance of the kick as it relates to the overall outcome?
Ruggles made a ton of kicks for OSU, but of course missed what would have been arguably the most important kick of the year against Georgia.
for UM - Moody's field goal when we played Illinois, for example, was hugely significant, much more so than the last field goal Turner kicked against Iowa (23-0 or 26-0 matters not so much).
The goal, of course, would be to understand this: when games were on the line, who was better?
December 7th, 2023 at 8:30 PM ^
That's a good point but I think the problem there is sample size. Michigan has been so dominant that truly critical field goals are few and far between; consequently you don't need statistics to evaluate pressure kicks.
December 7th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
For me, Moody was one of those kickers that you just didn't worry about when he trotted onto the field. Best kicker in Michigan history IMO. Third round draft pick to back it up.
December 9th, 2023 at 1:37 AM ^
For me, Moody was one of those kickers that you just didn't worry about when he trotted onto the field.
Yeah, I was shocked that it said he missed 6(!) kicks last year. I remember him missing a couple in the middle of the year, but not that many...
December 7th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
We have been spoiled by kickers the past few years.
December 7th, 2023 at 9:56 PM ^
How far we have come that I dont get nervous about any kick, no matter the distance. The last kick I think I was nervous about was the winner vs. ILL last year. I remember the days not too long ago that the only thing I was more scared of was a punt return in 2008/2009.
December 10th, 2023 at 9:30 PM ^
Ha! I remember jokes about FGs in 2010.
Before the bowl game, a thread was posted about what trick plays MGoPosters would like to see.
Someone commented, "How about the one where we trot out the FG unit and then actually kick it through the uprights!"
December 7th, 2023 at 11:06 PM ^
I love this.
December 8th, 2023 at 12:23 AM ^
But he did miss a game winning kick which was a bit of a chip shot out here for SF 49rs . I cringed when I saw that one . That one was a clutch kick and I clearly expected him to make it
December 8th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
And how does this translate to the candidacy for Peter Mortell Placeholder of the Year?
December 9th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
Kudos. That feels right. Good to know for the CFP.
December 9th, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^
Best to compare at end of season.
December 10th, 2023 at 9:22 PM ^
Yes, but Moody selectively missed non-critical kicks on purpose to conceal his other-worldly origin.
100% would have been mighty suspicious.
And that probably would have gotten Harbaugh suspended.
December 10th, 2023 at 11:31 PM ^
I am so sick of seeing routine 55 and 60 yard field goals in the pros. It's time to change the game by making dropkick field goals worth four points.
December 12th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
Even if you imported a rugby player skilled at the dropick, the American Football is quite a bit more difficult to dropkick than a rugby ball.
Flutie did it on an extra point in his last ever regular season game: Click Here for Video
But still, that was from a hiked play at the LOS, not in actual free flowing game action.
I like your style Maynard, but you might need to make it 5 points to get any takers.
December 12th, 2023 at 11:34 PM ^
A dropkick may be harder, but it is a way to distinguish between a drive that stalls at the three-yard line and a drive that gets ten yards or less past the 50. I don't care if a dropkick field goal gets four or five points. It would serve the same purpose. It might be a little easier for it to be accepted as an idea if it gets four points. Can you imagine how a dropkick field goal might affect overtime strategy in the pros (or college)?
December 17th, 2023 at 11:38 PM ^
It was great getting Turner through the portal? Does he still have another year of eligibility. Don't we have a young all star kicker who was a Fr. this season?
December 18th, 2023 at 7:57 PM ^
Turner has been fantastic 3 for 3 against OSU, 1 for 1 against PSU, 4 for 4 against Iowa.
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