[LOCKED?] COVID In FORIDA – An Update for Those Traveling to the Orange Bowl
I live in Fort Lauderdale and will be in attendance at the Orange Bowl for the UGA/M CFB Semi-final in Miami on January 31st. I'm a retired Physician Assistant with 22y of practice experience in Emergency Medicine. I study and write extensively about COVID.
Right now, FL is experiencing large numbers of new COVID cases. The reporting of new case numbers without context can lead to the perception that something like the Bubonic Plague is afflicting South FL. I’d like to rationally allay that view and any accompanying fear with some facts.
There are several reasons for the increase in COVID cases: With the holidays upon us, more people, even those that are asymptomatic are getting tested and more COVID cases are being detected. The percent positivity rate in Miami-Dade Co. is 15% indicating that the SARS-CoV2 virus is widely circulating. While the Omicron variant is present in S. FL and rapidly trending to replace Delta, Delta remains predominant.
During the current period of rapidly increasing case numbers (nearly vertical slope of the curve) which began accelerating about 3w ago, deaths and hospitalizations have held steady at low rates. This has been the pattern of Omicron globally and anecdotally indicates Omicron does not induce more serious COVID symptoms than its predecessors. The data is catching up and is supportive of the anecdotal picture.
Break through infections (for those with 2 shots) are producing about 30% of the new cases in Miami Dade Co. As a general rule, this number should not be applied across populations. That’s because the public is not privy to the medical conditions or immune system status of those that have been reinfected after vaccination. What we do know generally is that people who are healthy and developed an appropriate innate and adaptive immune response following vaccination are going to be spared reinfection.
Those who have been boosted account for less than 3% of new cases. New cases are concentrated in age groups that mirror vaccination rates. For example, there were 154 new COVID admissions in Miami Dade Hospitals. 101 of those are unvaccinated, 13 have been boosted (caveats apply), and 53 have had two shots. 89 are in the age group of 50 – to 89+. The rest are evenly distributed in younger age groupings. The median age of new cases is 34 with the highest percentage in the 19-34 age range (47%). 90% of those are unvaccinated. In that age group 20% required medical management.
FL in general and Miami Dade Co. in particular, are focused on effectively managing those who develop serious illness and require medical interventions. Messaging from local government is about dealing with the current increase in serious illness for new COVID cases and treating them. Public health officials and Miami Dade government are not talking about shutting down or restricting personal mobility and social contacts. The word is encouragement. Not the kind of handwringing discouragement – a fear inducing narrative - that we are hearing so much of from elsewhere.
If you are under 50 and boosted, enjoy and use common sense by acting responsibly with regard to exposure risks. You know what those are. No need to repeat them. If you can find them, travel with self test kits. Other age groups and those with varying vaccination status need to assess their own exposure risks and act accordingly. Know that if you are vaccinated, healthy and under 50, if you do become infected with Omicron and develop COVID during your visit, symptoms will be mild and similar to the commonly induced cold symptoms of the standard Coronavirus family. Consider self testing and if positive for COVID, take appropriate actions to protect others around you from being infected by you.
Finally, if you are traveling to Miami to watch Michigan continue it’s march to the CFB NC, enjoy the game fearlessly.
[Locked on 1/4/22, 2:20 pm. The Orange Bowl has long since come and gone, and 'enough already!' as to the continued stalemate among those few still posting within this diary, including those who cling to "their side" at all costs]
Michigan Arrogance
December 26th, 2021 at 9:16 AM ^
It's amazing to me that people simply can't think critically about things these days - this seemingly simple campairson that says that COVID is soooooo much less severe than the 1918 flu is quite laughable if you do the simple thing of THINKING about why that may be the case?
'We' developed (and mass produced and xported accross 90% of the developed world) a vaccine approx one fucking year once a novel virus was discovered. A highly xmissable, airborne virus. We shut down 97% of human interaction for 2-3 months. Institued mask mandates, limited or eliminated mass gathering, super spreader events for over a year. Schools were 40% in-person for a year. Not to mention the treatments of modern hospital staff and technlology that we have 100+ years later, thanks to science. What exactly do you think would have happened had we done next to none of these things as if it were 1918?
Now, I'm also able to conceed that livestyles have changed significantly since 1918 and many more people may have comorbidities and less outside time day-to-day than 1918. People live to 80+ pretty regularly now, not in 1918. Then again, smoking rates are way less as well and more ppl see a doctor for preventative treatments than back then.
I'm also quite sure that COVID, inspite of all of these arguements, is very likely less severe than the flu in 1918. But it's not orders upon orders of magnitude less severe. It only looks that way due to the efforts of all of us. Especially vaccines.
Joined: 06/30/2008
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blue in dc
December 26th, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
This paper suggests that the majority of people killed in the 1928 flu pandemic died of secondary bacterial infections.
“Absent the secondary bacterial infections, many patients might have survived, experts at the time believed. Indeed, the availability of antibiotics during the other influenza pandemics of the 20th century, specifically those of 1957 and 1968, was probably a key factor in the lower number of worldwide deaths during those outbreaks, notes Dr. Morens.”
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/bacterial-pneumonia-caused-most-deaths-1918-influenza-pandemic
Joined: 01/22/2011
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MRunner73
December 25th, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^
I hope those who are traveling down to attend the game, have safe and wonderful trip and Go Blue!
Joined: 11/11/2018
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clarkiefromcanada
December 26th, 2021 at 12:02 AM ^
Handwringing discouragement thy name is Canada
Joined: 11/20/2008
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Cali Wolverine
December 26th, 2021 at 5:41 AM ^
I am currently in Florida…nobody seems to care about wearing masks indoors or outdoors in large public spaces…so not a huge surprise that cases are surging here. And there are a ton of people coughing…99% of them are the people not wearing masks. ?♂️
Joined: 01/13/2013
MGoPoints: 21755
Njia
December 26th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
It's also allergy season in FL. I was in the Orlando area a few weeks ago visiting family and the pollen was terrible. Coughing may or may not, therefore, be indicative (on its own) of disease.
That said, people in the state experienced a few months of extremely low case numbers and hospitalizations - among the lowest in the world, in fact. So, they lived their lives according to the relative risk, and that makes sense.
Personally, I went everywhere wearing a mask and felt like a stranger in a strange land. I went to dinner with my parents one night in a crowded restaurant and felt very uncomfortable.
And, perhaps I was lucky, but I didn't get Covid during my trip. Or, maybe it wasn't me who was lucky, but people getting infected who were simply unlucky. Either way, the experience helped me restore a little perspective about my own risk, and realize that risk is a function of circumstance.
Joined: 09/15/2009
MGoPoints: 35773
Cali Wolverine
December 26th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
I know 3 different families that went to Orlando that have all come home with COVID. Just got tested and crossing fingers. If you have allergies, you should probably wear a mask and keep the pollen out. ?♂️ Florida was a hot COVID mess, and just hoping the Michigan team makes it to the game unscathed.
Joined: 01/13/2013
MGoPoints: 21755
Njia
December 26th, 2021 at 10:31 PM ^
The southeastern counties like Miami-Dade are, indeed, the “hot mess” you describe. Lots of SARS2 circulating right where our team will be for a week. The rest of the state will catch up, I’m sure, particularly as the holiday vacation travelers head back home.
Joined: 09/15/2009
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123blue
December 26th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
Some of your assumptions seem a bit off to me. For example, you said that the current "vertical slope of the curve" began 3 weeks ago and that FL was late to the Delta party, but FL was one of the earlier Delta states, sending its infected around the nation, including to states like Michigan (which is finally seeing a reduction in Delta cases, just in time for Omicron). Further, the vertical slope of the curve in FL began less than two weeks ago.
It can be very hard to tell what's going on in FL as they stopped reporting county-level data long ago. Maybe Miami-Dade is reporting their own data in spite of Gov. DeSantis blocking county-level reporting? Also, FL has been suppressing their death counts, often times reporting daily deaths in the single digits despite case counts that (based on other states' case counts) would have meant deaths in the triple digits.
Short version - it's very difficult to know what's up in FL as the state government has done its best to ensure accurate data is not available. Hopefully, the Omicron wave will be a quick one and that it takes only the unvaxxed.
Most importantly, hopefully Michigan crushes UGA, then Bama, becoming Big Ten Champs, SEC Champs and National Champs!! Go Blue!
Joined: 10/02/2014
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jbuch002
December 26th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^
FL’s Governor Desantis’s focus is on limiting what the federal government and FL county commissioners and school boards can mandate. He is on sound constitutional grounds in doing that and I applaud it. He is opposed to government mandates wrt COVID and has successfully challenged such mandates in federal district court and has obtained enforceable injunctions against them. If you can find this summer’s opinion of FL’s 3r’d district Court on the illegality of the CDC’s actions in shutting down the cruise industry in March of 2020 it is a primer on state’s rights and the usurpation of Congressional authority by administrative agencies, in this case, the CDC.
SCOTUS ruled in favor of FL’s request for a Preliminary Injunction (PI) against the enforceability of the CDC’s “No Sail Order.”. The State’s Attorney General has also been successful in obtaining PIs in other civil cases heard by the federal courts involving local county commissioners and school boards issuance of various mandates (mask mandates in schools is one example).
Desanits has no objection to private businesses mandating COVID mitgation measures to protect employees and customers. He was unsuccessful in the courts when private businesses challenged his authority to prevent companies from requiring employees and patrons to be vaccinated to work or enter the business.
His second focus is on effective risk reduction management of both vulnerable populations and those COVID positive FL residents who require medical interventions. IMO, this is where governments at all levels should be focused and some are including, in some cases, the feds. YMMV.
In general, national and local reporting of COVID has largely focused on case numbers. While this has it’s place, virologists and epidemiologists are less concerned about this than they are with assessing and understanding the disease and it’s impact on the public’s health. To some extent, and I’m not talking about mandates, they are also providing state governments with guidance on how to go about managing the multiple aspects of the SARS2 pandemic.
I’ve stated my concerns about the negative narrative that characterizes a good deal of the current COVID journalism. To that effect, Governor Desantis has been under attack from state and local news source editors since the start of the pandemic. I don’t have a problem with the press undertaking investigations as long as reporting resulting from the investigations is fair and balanced. It hasn’t always been that way in FL and that is just an opinion.
TBF, because reporting about his management of the pandemic was often inaccurate, the Governor took steps to present his side and published responses to some of the attacks in the opinion’s section of notably the Miami Herald. He subsequently ordered the discontinuation of COVID data reported on the State’s Dashboard sometime in June when cases in FL were declining stating that reporting new case numbers wasn’t of much use when viral prevalence (measured by % positive new cases) was below 5%. His decision was not related to attacks, mounted by local papers, that he was getting although the press reported it was exactly for that reason. In response to criticism of that move, he stated he didn’t have a problem with County level reporting if the County Mayors and Commissioners wanted to continue doing that. Miami-Dade Co.’s data I used in my original post was from that Co.’s COVID reporting web site. The state never stopped reporting COVID data to the feds where it was published and open to public review. FL only stopped reporting COVID data on the state’s COVID dashboard.
Joined: 08/19/2009
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g_dubya
December 26th, 2021 at 7:19 PM ^
It's disingenuous crap like this that makes your posts annoying:
"Desanits has no objection to private businesses mandating COVID mitgation measures to protect employees and customers"
He signed a law that requires business to allow a vaccine exemption to anyone who asks for it! So he has no objection to private business vaccine mandates as long as it isn't really a mandate?!? Get out of here with this garbage.
Joined: 07/01/2011
MGoPoints: 1138
TomJ
December 27th, 2021 at 5:59 PM ^
Correct. And he also banned cruise companies (CRUISE companies!) from mandating vaccines for their passengers. DeSantis is all against big government except when small governments do something he doesn't like.
Florida's public universities are banned from any kind of mandate that will keep their students/staff safe. Faculty aren't even allowed to ask if students are vaccinated, or to treat the vaccinated and unvaccinated differently. It's a fucking mess. Most faculty I know have tried to work around the draconian rules, but classroom instruction has suffered significantly because everyone is scared.
Joined: 03/21/2012
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blue in dc
December 27th, 2021 at 4:10 PM ^
Do you see no irony in the fact that you commend Desantis for both fighting with the federal government for having mandates and with school districts for having mandates? If you believe in local government you should be appalled by the fact that Desantis and other governors want to overturn more local decisions.
With regards to the question of vaccine mandates, the question of whether the federal government can require them is an interesting one, but to suggest that Desantis is on firm constitutional ground with regards to local mandates is a pretty shaky proposition. The Supreme Court has ruled in the past that both cities and schools can require vaccines.
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/29/1032169566/the-u-s-has-a-long-precedent-for-vaccine-mandates
Joined: 01/22/2011
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MGoStrength
December 31st, 2021 at 5:17 PM ^
This is the problem. One side does one thing. The other side goes to the opposite extreme to oppose it. There is no middle ground. And, each side refuses to find commonality and take every opportunity to criticize the other. No wonder people are angry at each other.
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 20002
1974
December 28th, 2021 at 2:39 PM ^
You showed some of your true colors in your original post. I referenced them in a slightly complimentary post that I now regret a little.
I'll make up for it here.
You're a PA, Buch. Not only that, you're an ER PA. Experience (though not meaningless) aside, you're really not qualified to be high-and-mighty on COVID. You should leave that to MDs and PhDs. I highly doubt that you "write" on COVID outside of publications at or below "Reader's Digest."
Switching fields, I know ninth graders with a better big-picture understanding of 2021 USA politics.
Joined: 04/17/2011
MGoPoints: 7799
jbuch002
December 26th, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^
One additional comment ..... I have really enjoyed reading the responses to my original post yesterday. It's covered a lot more territory that COVID in FL. I like that.
The SARS2 pandemic has exposed a significant rift between Americans on the right and the left. I can sense it here. Let's get our terms straight: Conservatives, and I include within that characterization of this group, Classical Liberals, are on the right. Illiberalism is the political opposite and includes the left. I'm not here to argue the fine points of Civics 101; you'll get my point.
The right feels threatened by what they perceive as a loss of power and the order of things as diversity, equity and social justice becomes the mantra of the left. Generally, the right, as I've identified it above as Classical Liberalism, opposes the drift toward an administrative state with the levers of power in the hands of an elite left that calls for a reordering of American Society. That includes such themes as "Critical Race Theory" and "Cancel Culture" among others.
I'm a follower of Classical LIberalism, I'm not a racist because I oppose teaching "Critical Race Theory" in public schools and resent being named as such because I am associated with the right. I'm also definatley not a "Trumper" as a post here identified me as. But, the truth is that I want to push back against what I perceive as a trend toward leftist governance as I define it ..... the concentration of power and authority in an administrative state.
There are good arguments to be had on both sides of this rift exposed by the pandemic but the danger is political polarization as we work to understand both sides here. Obviously, this isn't the place for arguing this and I bring it to readers of this Diary's attention because we all need to be thinking about the rift and how to get through it without destroying what America should be in the process.
Joined: 08/19/2009
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123blue
December 26th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
This type of nonsense is pretty much the opposite of what this board is about. If you want to push right wing, anti-democratic, anti-American propaganda, and whine about the teaching of history (despite your feared CRT that isn't taught in any elementary school on earth) do you. Just save it for your cult meetings.
Joined: 10/02/2014
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Arb lover
December 26th, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
The more you've traveled the world the more you will realize that people are a product of their background and experiences, and almost everyone (90%?) is well meaning. If you don't have that world view, you will have problems almost everywhere you go. For example, if you think it's "the US vs China" you probably aren't going to do well backpacking and hosteling in Asia. Yes there are always risks but if you divide your world into an us vs them you have already lost. Unfortunately in the country you live in, a large percentage (let's call it 30%) don't identify with either party, and if you want to try to harass and belittle them and put them in little boxes, you know they actually might wake up and start voting, and if you caused them to do it, probably not how you'd prefer. That a large percentage of this country is a-political doesn't mean they don't care. Maybe they've seen that neither side really cares about their issues or is going to change anything for the benefit of mankind. Maybe they have realized that family or health or faith or love are what is most important in their one life.
This is less directed at you and more at many of the comments here who would like to divide the world into an us vs them. But I get that it is more easy and righteous to be a keyboard ninja, slaying bad guys and that LS&A grads usually have more free time than Ross grads. (Okay that was a cheap dig, but as a progressive there was a time when I felt my party was the only party who actually tried to put themselves in other people's shoes for a day, but not anymore).
Joined: 11/26/2017
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The Oracle 2
December 27th, 2021 at 5:02 PM ^
Thank you. All this time I had mistakenly thought America was about people being able to freely express their thoughts and opinions. Now I know what it’s really about is repeating your point of view or remaining silent.
Joined: 02/25/2018
MGoPoints: 19255
blue in dc
December 28th, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
You are expressing your opinions. Many are just expressing their differences with them. That is how expressing your opinion works.
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The Oracle 2
December 29th, 2021 at 4:29 PM ^
I think it’s great and I’m glad they’ve allowed this to continue. I have no problem at all with people saying what they think or giving me the thumbs down.
Joined: 02/25/2018
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rob f
December 28th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
You seem to be forgetting one important fact, 'Oracle 2': MGoBlog ownership and management has always reserved the right to moderate what is posted on the MGoBoard.
Seth (as managing editor) and LSA, I, and the other mods have posted plenty of notices/warnings, especially in the last couple years (since covid became an issue in everyone's lives) regarding misuse of the MGoBoard by anyone posting misinformation.
While "freely expressing thoughts and opinions" in America is an essential right of all American citizens, the responsibility also exists that thoughts and opinions expressed on the board (in particular re: covid) be based upon factual information rather than half-baked nonsense spewed by disreputable sources. A thorough inspection of this diary thread and your posting history strongly indicates that you are unable and/or unwilling to post links to back up what you post.
Consider this to be your only warning ⚠️: we will need links to your sources if you insist upon continuing to post questionable 'information'. If you can't comply, you will be blocked. Don't like my decision to issue this warning? Then direct your protests to our managing editor Seth.
Joined: 11/11/2010
MGoPoints: 195753
The Oracle 2
December 28th, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^
I don’t dispute your right to block whoever you want and I’ll be disappointed if it happens to me, but what have I said here? My main points have been these:
1. The danger of Covid has been oversold as it isn’t a serious threat to the overwhelming majority. I didn’t know that was really in dispute, but if it requires a citation, here you go:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/;
2. The vaccines don’t prevent anyone from getting Covid or passing it on, which is undeniably true, even if they do, at least temporarily, discourage both. Based on this fact, I oppose mandating them. I never claimed they provide no benefit;
3. The vaccine hasn’t performed anywhere near as well as it was claimed it would. In the beginning, we were told they were nearly 100% effective and the possibility of multiple boosters being required wasn’t part of the messaging. Again, I’ve never said it provided no benefit and I’m sure it’s a good idea for those who are at risk but healthy enough to take it. I’m just opposed to mandating it;
4. Government-imposed lockdowns and mandates have been ineffective, as demonstrated by similar Covid impacts being felt in jurisdictions which have differed significantly in their approaches. This obviously wouldn’t be the case if these measures actually accomplished what their proponents claim they do.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/;
5. Far more than nine deaths are likely attributable to the vaccines, although I acknowledged that the actual number was no doubt less than the number reported to VAERS.
https://vaersanalysis.info/2021/12/25/vaers-summary-for-covid-19-vaccines-through-12-17-2021/;
6. As an example of the vaccines not working as well as advertised, despite vaccination rates in the high 90s, professional athletes are testing positive in record numbers.
https://www.nfl.com/playerhealthandsafety/resources/press-releases/nfl-covid-19-testing-results-and-vaccination-rates-oct-3-oct-16-2021
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/27/106-nfl-players-placed-on-covid-19-reserve-monday-bringing-total-to-505-this-month/
https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/02/09/nfl-covid-19-testing-2020
7. Given the prevalence of obesity among those severely impacted by Covid, a healthy lifestyle would provide as much (or more) benefit to some as the vaccine itself. Is this really in dispute?
Although many have obviously disagreed, I don’t think I’ve said anything that was untrue or outrageous. I just favor freedom over compulsion, which is my opinion and not “half-baked nonsense.” Block me if you want. At least I’ll still be able to read the often excellent writing.
Joined: 02/25/2018
MGoPoints: 19255
rob f
December 28th, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
I stand by my decision.
Might I ask: why (until I issued the warning) weren't you willing to link sources for numerous others who requested them throughout this diary thread?
I also looked at a few particular points you made above, and I have very strong doubts about the source you provide in your point labeled #5: vaersanaylsis.info appears to be very slanted towards casting doubts upon the safety of the virus despite every single source I've read indicating that both the Pfizer and Moderns vaccines are exceedingly safe (Johnson and Johnson being a different story). VAERS Analysis, by their own admission, is a website run by one individual who has worked in statistical analysis for over a couple decades---but who is checking his own personal analysis of the data for veracity?
And in #6, you again conclude that the vax is ineffective, apparently solely based upon a talking point that athletes are "testing positive in record numbers". That's not how a vaccine works, whether it is for COVID or something else. What a vax is actually generally intended/designed to do is 1) to prime the immune system of a person (or animal) so that the immune system is prepared to fight off disease; 2) prevention of more serious illness and/or death; and 3) lessening the time frame and likelihood of being contagious.
Overall though, your above response (providing links) is what I am asking for and expecting from you and from others who wish to push narratives that are questionable. Others who have been debating you & your talking points have been more than willing to post links backing up their argument(s). Why, until here and now, have you not reciprocated with links to attempt to back up your assertions?
Joined: 11/11/2010
MGoPoints: 195753
The Oracle 2
December 29th, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
I appreciate your comments and as to your question at the end, while I certainly knew that many would disagree with my views, I wasn’t aware that my basic points upon which I base my views were really in dispute. I’ll add that yesterday a study was published in the Journal of The American Medical Association which also show that the vaccines, while providing some benefit, don’t work nearly as well as was originally claimed:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2787643?guestAccessKey=356d5298-a97b-47ea-8db3-99dc9e039a6e&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jamainternalmedicine&utm_content=olf&utm_term=122821
Joined: 02/25/2018
MGoPoints: 19255
blue in dc
December 29th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
I hope this makes you reconsider some of your basic points. There is so much evidence that vaccines are both safe and effective ( even if not as effective as we would all hope), that it seems crazy to me not to get them.
Ironically, I think that the study you cited is way more supportive of the view that we should all get vaccinated than the view that vaccines are not very helpful. The study suggests that vaccines are much less effective for those who are immune compromised than for the general population (btw - as someone with Lupus who follows this stuff pretty closely, this is not new information),
Isn’t this all the more reason to get vaccinated? Unlike the obese who you argue should just exercise more and eat better (while I disagree that it is that simple, I agree many people could and should eat better and exercise more), the immune compromised can’t just snap their fingers and be cured. They get a triple whammy, vaccines don’t work as well, they are more likely to have severe covid anyway and they are more likely to need a hospital for other reasons that may be too full of covid patients to provide the care they need. Why would one not take a very safe vaccine to help make their lives better?
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 20401
g_dubya
December 29th, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
"which also show that the vaccines, while providing some benefit, don’t work nearly as well as was originally claimed:"
Either you don't know how to read or you are truly a liar. That is not what the cited study says at all. This is what it said about breakthrough infections:
"We observed a higher breakthrough infection rate compared with the reported CDC surveillance data to date (estimated at 2.8% by 6 months after full vaccination vs 22 115 cases after 183 million vaccinations)"
Pfizer originally claimed:
"Pfizer’s initial Phase 3 clinical data presented in December showed its vaccine to have 95% efficacy. In April, the company announced the vaccine had 91.3% efficacy against COVID-19, based on measuring how well it prevented symptomatic COVID-19 infection seven days through up to six months after the second dose."
Moderna originally claimed:
"At six months after vaccination, the Moderna vaccine was shown to have efficacy of 90%"
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison
So, the study you cited actually found that the vaccines worked better than originally claimed.
I also wonder if you read the other parts of the article that disputed many of your other talking points:
" Clinicians and patients should consider continuing nonpharmaceutical interventions even after vaccination, including mask wearing, social distancing, and avoiding densely crowded settings (especially indoors) as much as possible."
Weird, I believe it was you who claimed masks don't do anything.
And this one:
"Completion of all recommended doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is crucial in preventing a breakthrough infection regardless of a person’s immune status."
Anyway, thanks for the link. You should try to actually read it sometime.
"I wasn’t aware that my basic points upon which I base my views were really in dispute"
They aren't really in dispute, they are just wrong ... wholly and repeatedly.
Joined: 07/01/2011
MGoPoints: 1138
g_dubya
December 28th, 2021 at 4:55 PM ^
#3 is more of this ridiculous "nearly 100% effective." NO ONE ever thought that. Pfizer said in April "the vaccine had 91.3% efficacy against COVID-19, based on measuring how well it prevented symptomatic COVID-19 infection seven days through up to six months after the second dose."
Also, everyone knew there would be boosters. I really doubt you even believe half of what you are saying but I know it's important to keep up the 'covid is about government control' narrative.
Second, I already posted a link disputing your claim in #4. Here is that one again plus another that indicates you are still wrong.
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/do-mask-policies-work-countries-with-them-had-lower-covid-death-rates-study-says/
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818
The rest of what you posted here is still more half-truth gibberish not supported by any of the links you posted.
Joined: 07/01/2011
MGoPoints: 1138
blue in dc
December 29th, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
1. For the first 6 months of 2021. covid was one of the top ten leading causes of death for every age category 15 and above in the US.
https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid-19-continues-to-be-a-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s-in-august-2021/ This is clearly more of a subjective viewpoint, but I would argue that making it into the top ten leading causes of death for an age group is somewhat serious.
2. No cite and not true. This is what the CDC says: “COVID 19-vaccines are effective and can reduce the risk of getting and spreading the virus that causes COVID-19.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/vaccine-benefits.html Once again, you should stop saying this It is clearly not true.
3. Not true and since you haven’t bothered to provide a cite (and you have been wrong on pretty much everything else).
4. Death per capita doesn’t provide anywhere near enough context to evaluate this question. A quick google search will find studies and stories that argue both sides. This link provides so explanation of why the issue is so hard to evaluate (and anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of the multiple variables that impact the covid deaths per capita would understand that your link provides zero evidence one way or another).
https://theconversation.com/why-nobody-will-ever-agree-on-whether-covid-lockdowns-were-worth-it-161154
I would argue the studies showing they helped are more persuasive. Your data clearly doesn’t make the case one way or the other.
5. As noted earlier, the CDC reviews every death reported after a covid vaccine. They have determined that only 9 were related to the vaccine (all J and J). Until you find some actual evidence, like a study, you should stop spreading this mistrruth. You have zero facts to back it up. All evidence says the vaccine is extremely safe (and clearly much lower risk than covid itself)
6. There has always been a concern that variants would change the equation. Vaccines are clearly not as effective against omicron. Most medical professionals still agree they are quite effective. I don’t think you have proved anything with your cites.
7. Once again, no cite. What is indisputable is that if healthy people get the vaccine, they have almost no risk, lower there chances of getting covid and thus lower their chances of passing it on. Therefore they lower the risk of giving it to other people, overwhelming hospitals and causing more death because people can’t get needed healthcare both for covid and other issues.
8. Fact: You are spreading misinformation making medical claims about the risks and effectiveness of covid vaccines. See #2 and #5. Opinion. You and other people doing this are assholes who are killing people and senselessly prolonging the pandemic. Note: this has nothing to do with whether or not there should be vaccine mandates and everything to do with you using your “freedom of speech” to use lies and misrepresentation to justify your position and in doing so creating irrational fear in people about taking the vaccine.
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 20401
The Oracle 2
December 30th, 2021 at 7:53 AM ^
How about this? Official Ontario, Canada stats show the positivity rate for the vaccinated has overtaken the positivity rate for the unvaccinated. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions still clearly favor vaccination, but the claim that everyone needs to get vaccinated to “slow the spread” is looking more and more dubious.
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
Joined: 02/25/2018
MGoPoints: 19255
g_dubya
December 30th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
If you were truly interested in any intellectual honesty within this discussion, you would address yesterday's completely false assertion that the study you provided says that vaccines aren't as effective as we were told. Are you ever going to address any of the other false assertions you have made that have been repeatedly shown to be wrong?
I understand that you have an end goal to show "covid is about government control" and everything you say must somehow fit that narrative but continuing to ignore people showing you that you are wrong is really tedious and gives away your whole deal ... ideology over truth. When you decide to honestly address all of the proven inaccuracies in your previous claims, I might start to take something you say seriously. Until then I am just trying to figure out if you are actually not very smart or you just think we aren't.
Joined: 07/01/2011
MGoPoints: 1138
wolpherine2000
December 30th, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^
It's weird that although there are unvaccinated folks in Ontario make up only 17% of the population, they represent 67% of those in the ICU. It's as if vaccines reduce the severity of the infection or something?
Joined: 07/10/2009
MGoPoints: 8865
blue in dc
December 30th, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
1. Should we just ignore the big caveat at the top of the page : “Due to technical difficulties, case numbers and cases by vaccination status data is currently not available”
2. If we do choose to ignore the caveat, how does one explain that if we push the little button that lets us switch from graph to table, there is no underlying data after October 24?
3. Do you normally follow Covid data for Ontario, Canada?
4. Do you really think that looking at data for 6 days in one location is really enough to make your bold claim? Because my data from one location (Virginia) is inconsistent with your hypothesis.
https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 20401
MGoStrength
December 31st, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
The majority of social media (including MGB, FB, Youtube, Twitter, etc) is run by the left and what they consider "misinformation" is not always accurate, without bias, or done by people qualified to make that distinction. I'm not saying you're doing that here, but you can't deny the obvious left leaning majority here. To cite an example, Dr. Suneel Dhand is a physician that was de-platformed on Linkedin and has had content removed on Youtube for "spreading misinformation". He is a physician who has been working in hospitals during the pandemic. He also happens to support getting vaccinated. However, he has had some criticism for public health officials and he has encouraged open scientific debate over censorship and this has caused his content to be censored several times by several social media sites. One example of him spreading "misinformation" was a review of the UK Government website. Here's him discussing it. Here's another example of him having his context removed.
Here is a good video by Dr. Vinay Prasad on why social media should not censor.
But, to the whole point of much of this debate, here is a good video by Dr. Zubin Damania on why vaccine mandates are a mistake (even though he supports vaccination).
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 20002
4th phase
December 26th, 2021 at 9:46 PM ^
What a bunch of nonsense. “Leftist government” as you define it? So you’re just making up definitions now to fit your narrative? There’s nothing leftist, or right wing for that matter, about concentrating power and authority in the state. You clearly don’t understand politics, or words. There are both right wing and left wing authoritarian regimes through history. Also there’s nothing authoritarian about the US government. You claim to be a classical liberal, but then say “equity is the mantra of the left” (who you demonize)….if you were really a classical liberal then equity would be your main goal. Equity was the entire point of liberalism when it started hundreds of years ago. That’s why the Declaration of Independence says “all men are created equal”. You don’t have convictions bro, you just say words you hear from conservative talking heads.
Joined: 12/12/2017
MGoPoints: 14159
blue in dc
December 27th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
Just to be clear, almost nobody fits in such neat little boxes. Various factions in both parties support more government control when it suits their policy objectives and less government control when it doesn’t. Or maybe more to the point, what type of control is exerted.
One party argues that in one medical case, vaccinations, government should mandate them. The other says that not only can’t governments mandate them, but neither can companies, colleges or other organizations. It should be completely a free choice. On another health related issue, one party argues that abortion should be the mother’s choice. The other argues it should be the governments.
Both parties want to control individual decisions to obtain their view of society. The right likes the administrative state perfectly fine when it serves its other ends.
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 20401
Cali Wolverine
December 27th, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^
The problem is people have made a medical crises into a political one. It is a virus. It is a global problem. It doesn’t care about this country any more or less than any other country. It doesn’t care about your crazy Q-Anon conspiracy theories. It doesn’t care about BLM, it wants to infect everyone. It doesn’t care about Biden, it doesn’t care about Desantis’ political aspirations and the way he wants to appear to the base that vote for him. It is a virus. Get vaccinated, wear a mask, use common sense.
Joined: 01/13/2013
MGoPoints: 21755
MGoStrength
December 31st, 2021 at 7:26 PM ^
Not just everyone, but everything. It has an unlimited number of hosts. Several animal species have tested positive. It is not going anywhere. But, it does not want to kill the host. If it did it would die out. So, let's not get carried away. We need to learn to live with this.
Get vaccinated? I agree for the vast majority. I don't agree with mandates. Wear a mask? It depends on what mask. One of the only randomized controlled trials comparing cloth masks, surgical masks, and no mask found cloth masks show no statistically significant reduction in Covid transmission over not masking. So, if you're going to wear a mask, make it a surgical or N95. Use common sense? Well, that's a difficult one. Ultimately where you fall on this is a value judgement. Should those at low risk be required to undertake treatments or wear masks to help those at higher risk? That is a difficult ethical question to weigh. I personally don't believe the ends justify the means when the risk is minimal for most and those at risk they have tools available to them. But, like it or not we have to live with it. Take care of yourself.
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 20002
g_dubya
January 1st, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
-"One of the only randomized controlled trials comparing cloth masks, surgical masks, and no mask found cloth masks show no statistically significant reduction in Covid transmission over not masking."
That's a vast oversimplification of the findings in that study. You should really acknowledge the caveats such as there was only 42% compliance with masking and, even with that low amount of cloth mask usage, there was a reduction in infections and severity although not statistically significant.
"the point estimates for cloth masks suggests that they reduce risk"
And if they try to account for non-compliance, they find cloth masks do work.
"If we instead impute seropositivity for symptomatic non-consenters based on the population average seropositivity among symptomatic individuals, our pooled estimate of the impact of masking becomes larger and more precise. Notably with this alternative imputation, we find effects for both cloth and surgical masks on symptomatic seroprevalence."
And they also found cloth masks lessened symptoms for those who did get infected.
"Additionally, when we look separately by cloth and surgical masks, we find that the intervention led to a reduction in COVIDlike symptoms under either mask type (p = 0.000 for surgical, p = 0.066 for cloth), but the effect size in surgical mask villages was 30-80% larger depending on the specification."
It's unfortunate that you would keep posting this with such a clearly biased interpretation of the results. I would suggest that you should stop.
Joined: 07/01/2011
MGoPoints: 1138
MGoStrength
January 1st, 2022 at 5:42 PM ^
Your use of quotations is confusing. You know there's a quote button that does it for you. Here's me quoting you...
My point is not to suggest surgical masks don't work (although I do think surgical masks data from this and the Danish study so far probably suggests closer to a 15-20% reduction in Covid transmission as opposed to the 80% Walensky Tweeted). My point is to suggest cloth masks are significantly less effective than surgical masks. When people make a blanket statement of "wear a mask" coupled with the fact that we see cloth masks being worn frequently, it tells me context is important and we are not doing a good job of being clear about what is effective and what is not, or at least significantly less effective. If we are going to ask people to make sacrifices and put mandates in place, it makes sense to mandate surgical masks.
Questioning conclusions and discussing the study is warranted. Attempting to stop someone from posting and discussing it is not. These aren't outrageous claims from bad sources. This is a link to a study stating specific outcomes from it. That is exactly what you're supposed to do in a discussion...reference data, preferably new, peer reviewed data, cite it, and discuss the results. You are allowed to argue my conclusions & bias. You are not allowed to tell me to stop.
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 20002
MGoStrength
January 3rd, 2022 at 9:07 PM ^
For full transparency, here is my bias/opinion on all things Covid.
Vaccines
Boosters
Masks
Mandates
Myocarditis
Natural Immunity
Therapeutics
CDC/FDA/WHO
Misinformation
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 20002
WFNY_DP
December 27th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
Yes, the modern Conservative is so concerned with “opposing the drift to an authoritative state” that they largely support a president and politicians who attempted and/or supported a coup to block the certification of a legally contested election that they lost. The same President who has articulated a belief that, as President, he’s immune from any kind of oversight, investigation, or criminality. The same party that has passed completely non-sensical election laws to rig the game in states they fear they are losing their grip on electorally.
We have to burn the village to save it, apparently.
Joined: 02/03/2010
MGoPoints: 3016
MGoStrength
December 31st, 2021 at 7:48 PM ^
I think we all support the lesser of the two evils. I don't like Trump. He's a nut job. I also don't like vaccine mandates, despite firmly believing in getting vaccinated. Most people vote for the side that is best able to support what they value most. Being a teacher, that usually means I vote left as that side often supports public education. However, the push of that party to support vaccine mandates and has given me significant pause.
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 20002
ftroop
December 26th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
Anecdata: Wife had a cruise scheduled out of Canaveral with some friends on the 17th. Daughter tested positive at the port (although vaxxed). They came to stay with us in Orlando. Yup, wife got it, pretty sure I got it (although vaxxed and boosted). Not a real big deal, some coughing, we're all pretty much past it.
Bottom line, the vaccine (or pretreatment as I refer to it) is definitely worthwhile. As a society, we should be courteous and do our best to avoid spreading, but still live our lives.
Friday can't come soon enough! Will be there, pretty much superhuman by that point, at least in regards to covid :-)
Joined: 09/11/2010
MGoPoints: 1505
matt1114
December 26th, 2021 at 9:51 PM ^
I seriously feel like the majority of people that aren't vaccinated are just too lazy to do it.
Joined: 01/08/2021
MGoPoints: 6923
blue in dc
December 27th, 2021 at 11:52 PM ^
Based on this thread I might suggest they are more crazy than lazy.
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 20401
matt1114
December 29th, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
Crazy/lazy. For this topic, it seems all the same. I live in Florida and am surrounded by so many people like that.
Joined: 01/08/2021
MGoPoints: 6923
MGoStrength
December 31st, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
I'd guess most of them are the products of their environments. The people I know who are not vaxed are either raised in conservative families, live in rural areas where personal freedoms are very important to them, or come from groups that have been marginalized and are distrustful of the powers that be. Facts and figures are no match for their culture. And, the way we've tried to coerce them into it has only entrenched their skepticism.
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 20002
BoxLunches
December 26th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
Sounds like a visit to the Herman Cain Award is warranted.
https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/comments/roprhf/rhermancainawa…
Joined: 11/28/2015
MGoPoints: 911
gustave ferbert
December 26th, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
Delta cancelled two flights of mine to Florida. So no vacation/bowl game for me.
Fuck it . . .
Joined: 06/21/2011
MGoPoints: 46436