The final year of the four-team playoff could be the most chaotic. There are eight teams with a realistic chance of being selected — the most ever at this date, according to Stewart Mandel of The Athletic. There’s the potential for four undefeated teams to make it, which also has never happened.

Seven of the eight teams will be in action this weekend (bolded below):

• B10: Michigan (12-0) vs. Iowa (10-2). Michigan favored by 23½
• SEC: Georgia (12-0) vs. Alabama (11-1). Georgia favored by 5½
• ACC: Florida State (12-0) vs. Louisville (10-2). FSU favored by 2½
• B12: Texas (11-1) vs. Oklahoma State (9-3). Texas favored by 14½
• P12: Washington (12-0) vs. Oregon (11-1). Oregon favored by 9½

The eighth is Ohio State, which needs help but could back into the playoff in some scenarios, as they did last year despite losing to Michigan.

This assumes that the committee would not choose a two-loss team, which it has never done. Every permutation of results this week would still leave at least four undefeated and/or one-loss teams.

There are 32 possible outcomes of the five Power Five conference championship games. Mandel generously assumed that there’s no way Michigan could lose, which reduces the number of permutations to 16. We all love to hear that, but nobody should treat any game as “unlosable.” Michigan fans know this better than anyone. Iowa is a 23½-point underdog, but huge underdogs win sometimes.

But if we assume Michigan is a given, then we only need to look at the 16 combinations of results in the other games, which can be summarized as follows:

1) Georgia, Washington, and Florida State are in if they win. They'd be 13-0 conference champs, and the committee has never snubbed an undefeated Power Five team.

2) Oregon is in at 12-1 if it defeats Washington. Oregon is a 9½-point favorite, despite Washington being the undefeated team that already beat them. Oregon is currently ranked ahead of Texas, and it’s facing a stiffer test in its championship game. So it stands to reason that Oregon will be chosen if it comes down to them and Texas.

3) This means that Texas’s best path is to defeat Oklahoma State and hope Louisville defeats Florida State, assuming the other favorites win.

4) Mandel thinks Ohio State’s only path is if Florida State, Oregon, and Texas lose. The Ducks and Longhorns would be eliminated with a second loss. Florida State would have one loss, but the Seminoles have been very shaky since starting QB Jordan Travis went down — and the committee is allowed to consider injury status in its rankings. OSU would have wins over very good Penn State and Notre Dame teams, plus a nail-biting loss to Michigan.

5) But what if Florida State, Washington, and Texas lose? Mandel thinks the committee would take Washington at 12-1 over Ohio State, as the Huskies would have the better resume, with regular-season wins over Oregon, USC, Utah, and Oregon State. Expect furious lobbying by the Buckeye faithful should that happen.

6) If Alabama beats Georgia, there is almost no way Ohio State could get in, because the Bulldogs will surely be ranked ahead of the Buckeyes if any non-champ is going to be picked.

7) Among permutations where Alabama wins, the most interesting is if Texas and Florida State also win. This means those two teams and the Oregon/Washington winner take the three slots for sure. The committee would then need to choose between: A) Texas, which already beat Alabama at home; or B) Alabama, which would’ve defeated the two-time defending champ, Georgia. Leaving the SEC out of the playoff in the final year of the four-team format would be the ultimate laugh-out-loud moment. But Mandel assumes the committee would pick Alabama despite their loss to Texas.

8) If Alabama wins and either Texas or Florida State lose, then it opens the door for Georgia as the second SEC team.

Let's talk seeding. In every scenario, Mandel assumes that Georgia is the #1 seed and Michigan the #2 if both win. He’s got the Pac-12 champ as the #3 seed every time, which says that with a win over Iowa, Michigan is likely to face the Pac-12 champ in the Rose Bowl. It almost seems like the old days. If Alabama and Michigan win, then Michigan gets the #1 seed and faces—well, there are too many scenarios to say for sure.

Suppose Iowa wins? Michigan would not be eliminated from playoff contention, but it would need help:

A) If Georgia, Florida State, and Texas win, they join the Pac-12 champ, and the Big Ten would be frozen out of the playoff.

B) If Alabama beats Georgia, the Bulldogs at 12-1 would surely have priority over the Wolverines at 12-1, if any non-champ is going to get in.

C) If Oregon beats Washington, the Huskies at 12-1 probably would have priority over the Wolverines at 12-1 based on strength of schedule.

D) The Wolverines would likely have priority over FSU at 12-1 and would definitely have it over Texas at 11-2.

So, Michigan (should it lose to Iowa) would be rooting for Georgia, Washington, and one of Louisville and/or Oklahoma State.

Lastly, if Georgia, Washington, Louisville, and Oklahoma State ALL win, then both Michigan and Ohio State would qualify, as they’d be the only one-loss teams left.

I favored expanding the playoff to 12 starting next year. But expansion means we will never again have stakes quite like these. In a 12-team format, every one of the eight teams discussed above would be playoff shoo-ins. There would still be drama over seeding and the 9th through 12th teams, but these eight would have nothing to worry about.