B10 Softball: The Stretch Run Begins

[So I’d hate to start the post on a down note, so I’ll begin by saying congrats to the B10 and NATIONAL CHAMPION Michigan Women’s Gymnastics team. Of all rotations to end on from a fan perspective, the beam was a little too ‘on the nose’ for Michigan fans so it was quite the emotional ride for us novice gymnastics fans. They showed determination and obvious talent, but perhaps most impressive was their mental strength. Special congrats to Coach Plocki and the rest of the staff as well.]

Anyway, this post is about softball and the aforementioned down note has nothing to do with the Michigan team itself, but rather a comment of the lack of coverage on B10 Network. While the SEC and ACC Networks (plus ESPN) feature softball 4-5 days a week and often 2 games a day, B10 Network seems to show 3 games a week at most. So I assume few of us have had a chance to watch and follow the team on a regular basis this year. Admittedly, this is a tough year with B10 tournament championships happening for postponed fall sports and winter sports holding NCAA championships currently. Additionally, for COVID reasons, the softball schedules have limited midweek games this year (normal years will have one or two midweek games against MAC teams). As a result, Michigan’s only midweek game was a make up game vs MSU which was postponed for COVID reasons. So the B10 Network has excuses, but certainly don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. 

                       

                                                          Illinois fans angry about ...

                                               A) the B10 basketball title determination

                                               B) Michigan ignoring their request for rival status

                                               C) Football, anything having to do with football

                                               D) B10 softball title determination-- yeah, that’s the ticket!

With a B10 only schedule, every team started out down south playing 12 neutral site games, followed by eight 4-game series at B10 stadiums for a total of 44 games on the schedule. However, much like basketball, the B10 title will be determined via winning percentage since it’s likely that not all teams will play the full 44. As the Illinois AD so eloquently pointed out to us all, the result is that the loss column will effectively (and unfairly according to a soon to be re-published memo from the Illinois AD) determine the champion if there are unequal numbers in the GP column. Now is probably a good time to show the B10 Softball standings after this weekend:

Michigan          21-4   0.840

Minnesota        22-6   0.786

Northwestern   21-7   0.750

Illinois              18-10   0.643

Iowa                  15-13   0.536

Nebraska         15-13   0.536

Ohio State       14-13   0.519

Indiana             14-14   0.500

Wisconsin       12-16   0.429

Maryland         11-17   0.393

Michigan State 7-14   0.333

Purdue              8-20   0.286

Rutgers             6-21   0.222

Penn State        4-19   0.174

As you can see, and as was expected, it’s a three horse race at the top. Illinois (who beat Michigan in a pair of games early in the season) is a bit of a surprise sitting safely in fourth place, but it’s not uncommon for a team to jump up and almost contend with the real contenders. I’ll briefly summarize the three contenders, including their remaining schedules, ending with Michigan. The short story is that in the final four weekends, Michigan will have to play a balanced Northwestern team and Minnesota, while the power hitting Gophers already came away with a hard fought sweep (!) of the Wildcats in Evanston a couple weekends ago. Since there is no B10 Tourney, the stakes are as high as they can be: the auto bid to the NCAA tournament goes to the regular season champion, as decided by winning percentage. However, I do expect the top three teams to receive at large bids, with 4th place Illinois probably left holding the keys to an early summer Air-BnB or VRBO over Memorial Day.
 

                                             Northwestern Wildcats   

           

                                   NU Junior pitcher Danielle Williams - nusports.com

The Team: Much like real estate, for the Wildcats it’s all about location, location, location. Unlike real estate, it’s about the location of Danielle Williams pitches (I guess? IDK know real estate). For the ladies on the north shore, Danielle Williams is the alpha and the omega. Well, that may be over stating what is a pretty balanced team, but as we all learn quickly in softball, a team can only go as far as their best pitcher takes them. In 2019 the Wildcats rode then freshman Williams to the NCAA Super Regionals after a second place (tied with Minnesota) finish to Michigan in the B10 regular season. This year is much the same with Williams throwing a perfect game against Iowa just this Friday, but the rest of the staff performing a significant step below the star lefty. At the plate, the Wildcats feature four players hitting above .300 with two of them slugging better than 0.600. They have arguably the best offense in the league, leading in runs scored and total bases by a wide margin. Defensively, they lead the league in fielding percentage, a hair above Michigan.

The Schedule: [First, a quick reminder that each team is basically playing 4 games over the next 4 weekends and Michigan is on track to have a 2 GP deficit having, to date, only rescheduled two of the four games vs MSU that were postponed due to COVID]. The Wildcats are @ Michigan (Friday 4/23 6pm on ESPNU and Sunday 4/25 Noon on B10 Network), host Illinois, are @ Purdue, and end with a home stand with middle of the road Nebraska. This is probably the toughest remaining schedule of the three contenders even knowing that Michigan has both Minn. and the Williams-led Wildcats still to play. Purdue is the only series for which a sweep should be expected, although Neb. should be a 3-win weekend at worst. The Wildcats obviously have the longest shot at the title.
 

                                                    Minnesota Golden Gophers

                               

                         Minnesota Super-Senior and All-American pitcher Amber Fiser - gophersports.com

The Team: Much like real estate, for the Gophers it’s all about location, location, location. Unlike real estate, it’s about the location of Amber Fiser’s pitches. OK, you get it, alpha...omega… that old chestnut. What can I say? Well, I’ll tell you what Michigan coach Carol Hutchins says: this game is about pitching and defense and the defense starts in the circle. It’s simply the nature of the game. Fiser has been through the fire before, leading Minnesota to the College World Series in 2019. I don’t think the Gophers are quite at the same level as they were two years ago, but they aren’t far off either. At the plate, their game is power: they lead the B10 in home runs and walks by a wiiiide margin. Natalie DenHartog leads the B10 in HR, SLG and RBI making her the first half offensive player of the year in the league, IMO at the (very) least. Goldie also has three other players slugging above 0.500, two of them contributing at least 5 HRs on the year. Defensively they are solid, but unspectacular with a fielding percentage in the top half of the B10, about 12 pts back of the league leading Wildcats.

The Schedule: The Gophers host Iowa, are @ Wisc, host Michigan (on B10 Network all weekend 5/7-5/9, allegedly) and end with perennial bottom feeder Penn State. This is likely the easiest remaining schedule of the three contenders. As mentioned at the beginning, Minnesota swept Northwestern, so their losses have come from middle of the road teams like Iowa and Wisconsin. They are capable of taking two or even three games against Michigan. Whether they do or not will very likely depend on if Michigan’s 1-2 punch of pitching aces can keep the Gophers hitters in the yard.
 

                                                        Michigan Wolverines

       

            Michigan Junior Alex Sterako, Michigan; Senior Meghan Beaubien not pictured - mgoblue.com

The Team: Breaking with literary precedent, this team doesn’t depend on one pitcher. It depends on two: above pictured Alex Sterako has nominally ripped the title of #1 pitcher from the left hand of Meghan Beaubien. This is in no way a knock on Beaubien who has been the ace since stepping into Megan Betsa’s shoes three years ago. You should consider these two 1 and 1A, since the junior Sterako has significantly reduced her past propensity for giving up the long ball, thus allowing the Michigan staff to halve(!!) the next closest team ERA in the B10. Sterako’s own ERA is 0.41, well ahead of the B10’s number two in ERA: Meghan Beaubien at 1.11. Sterako has 39 more strikeouts than second place… Meghan Beaubien who has 121 Ks on the year. Like I said: 1 and 1A. In terms of style, the hard throwing Sterako has a nasty drop change, while Beaubien throws a brutal lefty curve. This is perhaps the best one-two rotation in the country, with caveats for COVID related, minimal non-conference scheduling across the NCAA (and none in the B10). Combined with the elite, high quality defense the Michigan program sustains year in and year out, runs are a bit hard to come by for opposing teams. 

At the plate, Michigan has struggled in spite of their B10 leading team batting average. Maybe ‘struggled’ is the wrong word, but if you hold this Wolverine program to the nationally elite standards those of us who follow them have come to expect over the last 20+ years, struggled is a tough, but fair description. Until recently, power has not come easy for Michigan b/c upperclasswomen Taylor Bump (3B) and Lou Allen (1B) have underwhelmed. Again, ‘expectations for the position’ may be unfair, but at least the Wolverines are finally starting to heat up at the plate the last few weeks, scoring 5-7 runs per game (instead of 2-4 in much of the 1st month of the season). Bump is providing big time power for a bottom half of the order hitter. Allen is hitting 0.300+ and has 6 HRs of her own after three frustrating, injury-riddled years. 

                             

                               [Fair warning: take note of the classic ‘burying of the lead’ technique.] 

                                  Lexi Blair exhibits perfection in the mechanics of the softball swing

Lead: buried. Offensively, anyway. Lead-off hitter, 0.400-hitter and model of the perfect swing, junior Lexi Blair is the engine that starts this offense. As a freshman two years ago she hit 0.406, got on base at a 0.457 clip and slugged 0.615. This year? How about 0.464/0.526/0.714. She has some power in spite of her relatively small stature (perfect swing mechanics make up for Ruthian strength and size). She has speed. She plays better than solid defense. A classic five-tool player. Still, an offense will only go so far with one great hitter. Veteran catcher Hannah Carson, sophomore second baseman Julia Jimenez (who may remind you of Sierra Romero in plate presence and affect, if not production), DP Lauren Esman and the aforementioned veterans Bump and Allen will need to keep stepping up as they have the last month or so. And they have to do it against higher quality pitching from Danielle Williams and Amber Fiser.

The Schedule: Michigan hosts Northwestern this weekend at Alumni Field (Friday 4/23 6pm on ESPNU and Sunday 4/25 Noon on B10 Network), travels to cellar dweller PSU, goes @ Minn (on B10 Network all weekend 5/7-5/9, allegedly), then hosts PSU’s roommate in the cellar, Rutgers. There’s a mid week game in East Lansing thrown in to help make up for the lost MSU weekend of games (IDK if they will try to make up all four MSU games or just play the two on the schedule currently). Obviously, the season comes down to the NU and Minn. series. Can the duo of Sterako and Beaubien tame the Minnesota power and the Wildcat station-to-station offenses? Can the Wolverine hitters maintain their relative break-out at the plate vs. Williams and Fiser? Michigan’s two All American level pitchers and two-game lead in the loss column says, ‘probably, perhaps even likely’. But softball games aren’t won on paper - they’re won in the circle, at the plate and on a perfectly manicured, soft dustless dirt & natural grass softball field.

GO BLUE!