3 Stars in MY recruiting class!? A quick analysis of Clemson's recruiting classes the past 5 years
With the latest run of commitments, I've seen a striking amount of negativity on this board that rivals the Snowflake threads after a Michigan loss. I get it, Ohio State is recruiting up a storm and we feel that the best recruits we'll ever get are Ohio State's leftovers.
Is this an overreaction? Probably not, there are certainly some issues with Jim Harbaugh's recruiting, but I don't necessarily think that fliers on 3 stars is the giant problem. Personally, I think winning a Big Ten Title would ease all of these problems a fair amount (consider how Zach Harrison was a silent commit that was going to announce his decision 15 minutes after a Michigan victory over Ohio State in 2018 ughhhh).
A hopeful comparison point that Michigan fans like to make is the first 5 seasons of Dabo Swinney's tenure at Clemson (0-5 record against South Carolina and a general feeling that big games are unwinnable). But then Dabo got his 5 star quarterback and the rest is history.
Consider then the top end talent at Clemson the past few years, using 247's composite rankings we have:
Clemson signing Fourteen five star recruits
Ohio State signing Fifteen five star recruits
Michigan signing Five five star recruits
It's clear that top end talent wins titles. Everyone knows that and Maizen and friends drill it into this board's heads whenever the subject comes up.
I did recall however, UMGoBlue11 mentioning in a diary post a couple months back how much he loved Swinney's recruiting process at both ends. Swinney swings for the fences with top-end talent, but likes to fill out his classes with hard-working undervalued recruits that can fill out the depth chart and aren't a threat to transfer after not winning a starting job their freshman year.
Using 247's composite rankings for the past five years, we find that:
Clemson signed Thirty-four recruits ranked lower than 440 on the charts*
Ohio State signed Twenty recruits ranked lower than 440 on the charts
Michigan signed Forty-Two recruits ranked lower than 440 on the charts
*I know 440 is a strange number to start at, I'm trying to make a point here alright!
During this stretch Clemson is 2-0 against Ohio State, including perhaps the most embarrassing loss in Ohio State history (31-0 in 2016 Fiesta Bowl). I haven't delved into the data too much to see what kind of impact these low-rated recruits had on these teams, but let's dispel with this notion that every 3-star we sign is a death knell for our chances of competing with Ohio State.
Michigan's recruiting certainly has holes, and it is a bit disappointing that all this 3-star talent seems to come from the same area, but a third of the team being composed of 3-stars is not as big of an issue as some on this board will lead you to believe.
Well, I can think of one obvious Clemson kid that fits this mold: Hunter Renfrow currently an NFL wide receiver that was a literal zero star recruit.
Overall though, this is a rehash of an argument with a troll. We should just not feed the Maizens who reside in the Walter Sobchak "You're not wrong, you're just an asshole" hall of fame.
Nobody in their right mind thinks it's good and fun to lose to our rival, some just don't think it's worth the cost to pay for recruits when it's against the rules, or to mortgage academic integrity.
And there it is, the old academic integrity and everyone else cheats excuses.
Newsflash, putting a bunch of kids into general studies and kinesiology isn't academic integrity.
Newsflash, UM didn't stop having academic integrity during the 70's, 80's, 90's, and early 2000's when they were winning B1G championships and beating OSU regularly.
Newsflash, college programs have been paying recruits since the days of Bo.
Newsflash, there isn't anything moral about not paying football players what they are worth. The NCAA is a corrupt system. So you can either break the rules that no one cares about and pay a few kids or you can follow the rules in a corrupt system that cheats kids out of money they should be making. Neither choice is better than the other.
Newsflash, UM taking a bunch of 3 stars isn't because other programs are cheating. It's because they have a staff that doesn't recruit hard and an administrative deprtment that couldn't hold a guy like Mark Pantoni's jock.
You all can keep telling yourself this complete and utter bullshit and I'll be here to remind you that you're full of shit. Enough with the fucking excuses. Leaders and best my ass.
Dazn Confused.
It's amazing you have this much free time to repeat yourself when everyone dislikes you and what you have to say.
Breathe. it's not your burden. all that stress will kill you
I do agree with you on paying players.
'News flash', you keep using those words. I do not think they mean what you think they mean.
Cut Dazn5 some slack. He's new here. His account was created just last week.
Michigan also wasn't competing against 2010s OSU in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and early aughts.
Whoa, how is your username not clickable?
I've never seen that before.
Pretty sure it's because Dazn Maizen has already been kicked off the boards. Until he gets another email address and burner account.
If Michigan players are so much smarter than Ohio State players , why do we play like we have our heads up our ass and Ohio St. plays sound and disciplined ?
April 11th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
Tired of hearing every excuse. Academic integrity MA. We recruit the same kids as everyone else.
BTW - Academic Progress Rate for Big Ten football teams:
1. Northwestern
2. OSU
3. Illinois and Michigan
Top 100 commits over the last four years:
2018: OSU - 13 UM - 0
2019: OSU - 4 UM - 3 (coaching transition for OSU)
2020: OSU - 8 UM - 0
2021: OSU - 10 UM - 2
TOTAL: OSU - 35 UM - 5
What in the hell do people expect to happen when these two teams line up and play on the field? Keep telling yourself stars don't matter. OSU will keep kicking our ass like they've done every year for the past 15 seasons.
Dazn Maizen
Maybe, just maybe, if you type the same thing for the 1,089,975th time, someone other than you will actually care
If people would quit trying to argue that there’s no talent gap and 3 Stars are just as good 5 stars (because 1 out of every 500 becomes an AA so they use those guys as examples) he wouldn’t have anywhere to post his ramblings. Unfortunately Maizen/Dazn isn’t wrong, but maybe this 2021 class will have enough talent that we will be able to break through against osu sometime in the next 5 years. McCarthy, Edwards, and an elite OL is a great foundation for a team to finally beat osu.
...and to boot there is never any gameplan surprise or risk taken in a certain situations to attempt to balance out any mismatches.
Just line up and hope plays that should be made, are made, and the breaks go your way.
"What in the hell do people expect to happen when these two teams line up and play on the field?"
We expect to lose, same as you do. The difference is the emotional response.
"Keep telling yourself stars don't matter."
Stars matter in the aggregate, they don't matter much for individual recruits. Your statistical illiteracy on this topic, which leads to your bitching and moaning every time a kid commits to play for Michigan, is why people think you are a tremendous asshole and moron.
"OSU will keep kicking our ass like they've done every year for the past 15 seasons."
OK.
OSU will keep kicking our ass. They are in a league of their own in the B1G and I don't see us competing with them in the foreseeable future.
9-10 wins and a spanking by some SEC team is the best we can expect.
I don't even see us getting into the Rose Bowl again, thanks to being in the same division as OSU and not having any realistic path to being the conference runner-up.
I think we've beaten the dead horse here way too many times. Clemson's success with their comparable roster to Michigan's is because of Dabo and his staff developing the talent into excellent players and have great game plans.
Dabo runs a system that utilizes their players' strengths. Dabo and staff have a great philosophy. He and his staff do a fantastic job of developing them. Jim Harbaugh has failed at this. Not that his 3*'s don't turn into impactful players, they are simply outmatched against elite talent and out schemed by better game plans.
Harbaugh is still playing catch up to the rest of college football. Harbaugh will leave Michigan as one of the greatest coaching disappointments in college football history.
You're not wrong, but you've been a member for a month and are probably also Maizen.
Come on, man!
Look at all the points I've earned in a month's time. If I was Maizen, I'd have negative points by now. That should be a strong indicator.
The response is "100% Pure Maizen"
Let it go, kid.
That is a lot of points considering points haven't worked for about a year.
"Harbaugh will leave Michigan as one of the greatest coaching disappointments in college football history."
That is one of the most ridiculous exaggerations I've ever seen. He will leave Michigan with a winning record and having put numerous players into the NFL. By any measure he is not a historical disappointment. A reasonable label would be "didn't live up to the highest-possible expectations."
I swear these Maizen people are typing with tears in their eyes. Stop being a baby when we lose, it's embarrassing enough to look at the scoreboard.
If Harbaugh goes another season without beating OSU, winning the division/conference, playing in the playoff and/or losing another bowl game (all of which are highly likely), then what does Harbaugh have to hang his hat on?
Ok, he turned the MSU rivalry into Michigan's favor...great. Went .500 vs ND, Wisky and PSU...great. What else? 0-6 vs OSU. Zero out-right championships. 1-5 in bowls.
These results are absolute failures and come nowhere close to "highest-possible expectations". He's not even on that level of discussion.
You're going to tell me that when Harbaugh was hired in at Michigan you expected these results? Heck no you didn't. No one did. We thought Jim was the savior of Michigan football. The fanbase had the highest expectations. Big-time programs don't settle for mediocrity. It seems you have.
Good to know you agree with me.
Ok, he turned the MSU rivalry into Michigan's favor...great. Went .500 vs ND, Wisky and PSU...great. What else? 0-6 vs OSU. Zero out-right championships. 1-5 in bowls.
I'm so tired of fans who dismiss this performance against high quality competition as irrelevant. Being .500 against a program the quality of Notre Dame is something to take pride in. Being 3-2 against a program the quality of Penn State is something to take pride in. Being 2-2 against a program the quality of Wisconsin, the clear elite program of the B1G West, is something to take pride in. Flipping the script on MSU and grinding their program back into the dust is something to take pride in.
We're not on par with Ohio State right now. Got it. You know what other programs aren't on par with Ohio State? Penn State. Wisconsin. Michigan State. Notre Dame. It sucks that Harbaugh hasn't found a way to beat them, I want that more than anything, but the B1G right now is OSU and everybody else, and we are solidly in the 2nd tier of programs that are competitive, but not elite. You want to characterize this as mediocrity. It's not. It's not elite results. It's not what we had hoped for when we hired Jim Harbaugh, but it's still pretty good and definitely not mediocre.
You're unhappy with Michgan's performance under Harbaugh. Fine. State the solution or shut the fuck up. I'm tired of all the asshole troll fans who want to throw shade at Harbaugh without any solution. You name a realistic coaching candidate that is a for-sure, no-miss guy who can come in and up Michigan's recruiting to OSU levels and bring us to even with their program right now or keep your fucking opinions to yourself.
Totally agree. We're on par with everyone else in the B1G, and OSU has left us all in their dust.
It isn't what I had hoped for, but I don't see any realistic candidates who would be likely to do much better.
One can't help but wonder where we would be had we not snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Columbus in 2016...
…...and Dabo plays in the shittiest "major" conference in football.
Yes they do, but his teams also show up against the big boys.
They do, but I wonder if their soft schedule directly correlates to their being able to "show up" consistently. Does it allow them to avoid more injuries by not having to expose their starters to 60 full minutes of maximum contact? Does it allow them to more easily absorb injuries? Does it allow them to devote less prep time week-to-week to prep for the bigger games? Certainly their weaker schedule allows for more margins for error when they have weeks where they don't show up, they can still find ways to prevail (see 2019 Clemson at NC).
I would love to hear a no bullshit, insider take on this.
So how did it compare between the FIRST five years of Dabo and Jim?
5 five stars for Clemson from 2008-12
Harbaugh's first five full classes are the same as above
60 recruits ranked below 500 for Clemson in that same timespan.
Not really a fair comparison though because I don't think Clemson was at the same level of prestige in 2008 as Harbaugh's Michigan was in 2015.
What level of prestige was Michigan at in 2015?
That is a difficult question to answer. I think Michigan had more prestige in 2015 than Clemson did in 2008 simply because Michigan had been a much better team through the early aughts. Also 1997 wasn't THAT long ago. The last time Clemson won it all before Dabo got their was 1991.
HOWEVER, considering Michigan's massive drop-off through the Rich Rod and Hoke years, they might have had similar reputations as programs.
You mean 1981, right?
Thanks for the reply. So during Dabo's first five years Clemson recruited similar to Michigan during Jim's first five years. Are there any sign that Michigan's luck could change similar to Clemson from year 6?
I won't bring "prestige" in this calculation. Doesn't help in winning games or creating game plans.
Great title
Great title
So nice I said it twice
Signing 3 stars isn't the problem, its getting no top end talent that is a problem
BINGO !!! Plus the coaching staff is average at best. Our player development is lacking also.
I'm sorry, but this is a problem for every college football program that isn't Alabama, Ohio State, or Clemson right now.
This comment makes me think we need to rethink our expectations here. Can Michigan ever recruit like those programs? Even if they start paying players, illegally or under the table?
No doubt that in college a stud QB makes all the difference. That’s why I’m giving Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt. The ceiling on McCaffrey is huge and let’s see how JJ develops. We’re really not that far behind, but we need an elite QB that can put up points and let Don Brown’s defense feast on QB’s running for their lives.
100% agree. We have to wait until JJ gets here before we start talking about canning Harbaugh IMO. If he can't win with an elite quarterback it's time for him to leave. But until then, getting rid of him would just set the program back and waist JJ's precious few years at UM.
This. If Shea plays like we expected him to, did not miss each and every long pass down a sideline, overthrow everyone and underthrow them too, fumble and basically suck ass v OSU, and by suck ass I mean fumble and miss open receivers, last season would have gone much differently.
Double post
I think you are correct twice though.
At what point since perhaps Chad Henne has Michigan had the better QB that t(tm)OSU?
Really, since Henne (and allegedly recruit Ryan Mallett), Michigan has not had an elite QB. It's a problem. I think the hope was that Shea Patterson would equal his recruitment ranking but this was not the case at Ole Miss or Michigan, really.
Elite quarterbacks make all the difference. See Luck, Andrew and Harbaugh
I think this is very accurate and just the tip of the iceberg. Look at the NFL - they have the same issue. Entire franchises bank on finding that elusive star QB. Chicago had an all-time D and flamed out because they couldn't identify or develop a QB. Most of the QBs drafted in the past few years have been "serviceable" at best with only a couple of superstars. And some of those superstars were more like the equivalent of 4-stars with how they were drafted, not 5-stars.
In college it is also magnified by how you use your QB. Was Troy Smith or Braxton Miller better true QBs than some of Michigan's guys? Maybe...but they were also in a read-option offense that set them up with more "free yards". So you have to match QB talent identification, signing the QB to your class, developing them, matching the right guy to your system, tweaking your system to maximize their skill.....and hope you did all of that when the rest of your team can match their skill. Gardner might have been one of the best QBs of our history....but he arrived at a time of total dysfunction in the program on-and-off the field. Oh, and even if you get all of that right, you have to essentially go undefeated in one of the two toughest divisions in America to meet expectations.
The one area where Harbaugh truly hasn't lived up to expectations is the ability to recruit and develop QBs. They've been fine, not elite.
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